thePest
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May 28th, 2019 at 3:07:50 AM permalink
Only because I've been told no question is a dumb question will I ask if the chances of hitting a jackpot playing an online slot machine are proportional to bet size. I.e. if I bet $10 per spin do I have a 10X better chance at hitting a jackpot than if I bet $1 per spin? It would make sense, but I've not seen the answer posted anywhere.

Addendum:

I realize after reading responses that I stated my question, at best, inelegantly. Better put (I hope), when playing an online slot with a jackpot, are my chances of hitting the jackpot the same on any single spin betting if I bet $1 or $10. Answering the question (from my perspective) would depend on knowing whether the ($1 / $10) bets are equally weighted in terms of their contribution to the jackpot pool, in which case one would expect the converse, that the yield, in terms of percentage of hitting said jackpot would be equal as well.
Last edited by: thePest on May 28, 2019
odiousgambit
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thePest
May 28th, 2019 at 4:07:02 AM permalink
Quote: thePest

Only because I've been told no question is a dumb question will I ask if the chances of hitting a jackpot playing an online slot machine are proportional to bet size. I.e. if I bet $10 per spin do I have a 10X better chance at hitting a jackpot than if I bet $1 per spin? It would make sense, but I've not seen the answer posted anywhere.

This is far from a dumb question. Variance and things that would affect it seem to be hard to explain even by those qualified to do so [which is not really me, but I'll try]


The familiar situation in which the effect of bet size is easily explained is about whether you are churning your bankroll. If that is $100 in your example, then it would be easy to make more than ten $10 bets, cite-able for exposing your roll to 'grinding' ... allowing the HE* to grind away at it. Say you made 15 bets of $10. In that case, the EV of your session is easily shown to be mathematically larger in negative value than if you bet $1 at a time but only made 100 bets. But EV also does not answer your question. 


If you made ten $10 bets, or a hundred $1 bets, the EV is exaclty the same. Yet it is said to be smarter to do the former ... that it is smarter can not be proved by EV. 


Look at Standard Deviation. Let's say the HE is 8% for the slot you are playing, but we also need to know the SD. According to the link below [read fully for procedure explanation], this might be around 8 SD. 


For 100 one dollar bets, we take the sq rt , 10, multiply by $1 , and learn that a bit over 68% of the time the result will be +/- $10 from the EV of -$8 . **


For ten $10 bets, we take the sq rt of ten, 3.16, multiply by $10, and see that around 68% of the time the result will be +/- $31.60 from that expectation of losing $8 on average. So this is the only way I know to actually show how a few bets versus many bets, EV being the same, increase the Variance. 


I don't know of any formula like you propose, a ten times smaller bet being ten times better in probability [doesn't seem so]. I think you have to crunch the SD numbers. I hope I didn't make a mistake. 


https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/


*abbreviations you may know, but in case not, HE = house edge, EV = expected value, SD = standard deviation

** it occurs to me that we may have to ignore whether these kinds of results seem realistic with slots , similar to the realization that though a $5 bet on the pass line in Craps loses 7 cents on average, it is actually not possible to lose only 7 cents.
Last edited by: odiousgambit on May 28, 2019
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
RS
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thePest
May 28th, 2019 at 4:12:50 AM permalink
Quote: thePest

Only because I've been told no question is a dumb question will I ask if the chances of hitting a jackpot playing an online slot machine are proportional to bet size. I.e. if I bet $10 per spin do I have a 10X better chance at hitting a jackpot than if I bet $1 per spin? It would make sense, but I've not seen the answer posted anywhere.


No. It depends on the game and payout structure.
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beachbumbabs
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heatmapthePest
May 28th, 2019 at 6:56:05 AM permalink
Quote: thePest

Only because I've been told no question is a dumb question will I ask if the chances of hitting a jackpot playing an online slot machine are proportional to bet size. I.e. if I bet $10 per spin do I have a 10X better chance at hitting a jackpot than if I bet $1 per spin? It would make sense, but I've not seen the answer posted anywhere.



No, not a dumb question.

I know for a fact that there were multi-denomination machines that gave better pays for a higher denomination bet. They used to include that info right on the screen. They seem to have stopped telling you whether that was part of the programming, or stopped using better slot paytables for higher denoms (same machine), or both.

It's been sort of standard (though not always), that higher denom machines pay better going up the amounts, both in general, and for the same game on different machines.

And it's almost universally true that video poker paytables are better at higher denominations for the same game, lots of times on the same machine.

Online, who knows? They certainly have the capability of offering better paytables for higher denominations. Whether any particular casino or game offers them is entirely up to the casino. They don't have the reporting requirements or oversight many land-based jurisdictions have, so they could claim lots of things that aren't true about the return to players.

Specific to how you phrased your question, though, you wouldn't increase your chances 10x or anywhere near that. You increase the amount at risk by 10x. You might get a 1% to 2% increased rate of return, if the operator rtp is in line with what many land-based casinos offer.
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on May 28, 2019
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odiousgambit
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May 28th, 2019 at 10:49:29 AM permalink
BBB is probably getting at what exactly you were asking much better than I was!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
thePest
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odiousgambit
May 28th, 2019 at 2:27:18 PM permalink
While your later comment is correct (I have edited the question to clarify its internet), your answer, which I thank you for, has opened other avenues of thought I need to address in order to further my knowledge. Thanks so much for the detail, right down to footnotes!
thePest
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May 28th, 2019 at 2:42:20 PM permalink
Thank you, beachbumbabs. You have perhaps summed up the answer to my question (which I've edited for clarity) when you wrote "Online, who knows?"

Your last paragraph (please see the edited question) might not be a valid assessment, IF, what I proffer in terms of weighted contribution vs weighted return reflects the true nature of the way online casinos handle jackpots.

Thanks so much for taking the time to share your knowledge!
onenickelmiracle
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thePest
May 28th, 2019 at 3:27:17 PM permalink
Quote: thePest

Only because I've been told no question is a dumb question will I ask if the chances of hitting a jackpot playing an online slot machine are proportional to bet size. I.e. if I bet $10 per spin do I have a 10X better chance at hitting a jackpot than if I bet $1 per spin? It would make sense, but I've not seen the answer posted anywhere.

Addendum:

I realize after reading responses that I stated my question, at best, inelegantly. Better put (I hope), when playing an online slot with a jackpot, are my chances of hitting the jackpot the same on any single spin betting if I bet $1 or $10. Answering the question (from my perspective) would depend on knowing whether the ($1 / $10) bets are equally weighted in terms of their contribution to the jackpot pool, in which case one would expect the converse, that the yield, in terms of percentage of hitting said jackpot would be equal as well.

I'm not sure because nobody can be sure without knowing the details. Unless you know or are confident, look for somewhere else to put your money.
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FCBLComish
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thePest
May 28th, 2019 at 3:32:22 PM permalink
The slots that have the highest house edge are the penny slots. As you go up in denomination, they get looser. It does not matter how many coins you are playing, just the denom.
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thePest
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May 28th, 2019 at 3:51:30 PM permalink
You hit the nail on the head, onenickelmiracle. I'm hoping for a reply from someone who DOES know! maybe I'll hit the jackpot and get an answer from that person or persons! Thanks again, for your response.

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