Poll

17 votes (77.27%)
1 vote (4.54%)
3 votes (13.63%)
1 vote (4.54%)
1 vote (4.54%)
4 votes (18.18%)
4 votes (18.18%)
2 votes (9.09%)
2 votes (9.09%)
3 votes (13.63%)

22 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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onenickelmiracle
December 2nd, 2018 at 8:32:02 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

You really should lay off the water bottle...But your post seems to match your recent pattern of pure nonsense.



Personal insult -- second recent offense -- 7 day suspension
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MaxPen
MaxPen
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December 2nd, 2018 at 9:45:36 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard



First, let me explain what a "Must-hit-by" jackpot it. It is a progressive jackpot that starts at a certain amount and must hit by a specified value. For example, in the picture I just posted, which is from a WMS game, the Major jackpot starts at $250 and must hit by $500. I have a whole page about the mathematics of them here: Mystery Progressives, which is what I called them at the time of writing. Today, most people seem to call them "must hit by" jackpots, which I will defer to for this thread.

Briefly, the way I assumed they worked at the time of writing that page was a trigger point was randomly chosen between the starting point and must-hit-by point. The probability distribution I assumed was uniform, meaning every possible value had the same chance.

With the introduction out of the way, I have heard from a few sources that such games by AGS deliberately don't let the jackpot hit until very close to the "must hit by" point the vast majority of the time. There is a good post about this at Advantage Play Slot Machines, which, by the way, is a very good site. That post claims that for jackpots that "must hit by" $5,000 rarely hit below $4990.

I am going to start collecting data to make my case. So far, I have only three games, which I know proves nothing, but I have to start somewhere. Here is that data

Date Casino Game Small Large
12/2/2018 Rampart Fire Dragon* $324.41 $2,047.06
12/2/2018 Rampart Fire Dragon* $278.15 $2,048.22
12/2/2018 Rampart Fire Dragon* $226.05 $2,099.95


* Somebody has claimed there is no such AGS game by this name. I will return to verify the name of the machine.

I welcome any other evidence for or against this theory that AGS must-hit-by jackpots rarely trigger until nearly at the must-hit-by point.

The question for the poll is do you agree with the statement above?

Related thread: MUST HIT BY JACKPOT MATH QUESTION.



The name of the machine is River Dragons.
Sandybestdog
Sandybestdog
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December 2nd, 2018 at 11:49:44 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen


The name of the machine is River Dragons.

Itís River Dragon and Fire Wolf. Iím assuming theyíre the same. I have also seen some other AGS must hits that play differently, have different starting points and have different meter movements.

Bottom line, these AGS slots are awful. Donít play them. Stay away from them. Donít even bother looking at them.
DRich
DRich
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December 3rd, 2018 at 5:22:07 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think it is misleading to say something like, "This jackpot will hit between $2,500 and $5,000," when there is almost no chance of it hitting below $4,990. I admit there is no rule they are breaking, but it just doesn't seem kosher to me.



I think "rigged" is a terrible misrepresentation unless you are willing to say that almost all reel slot machines are rigged because the reels are weighted. There are 22 stops on a Megabucks 3 reel slot machine but the odds aren't 22^3 to hit the jackpots. Same with Wheel of Fortune. When you spin the overhead wheel the odds are not equal.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Wizard
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Wizard
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HugoSlavia
December 3rd, 2018 at 5:42:05 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I think "rigged" is a terrible misrepresentation unless you are willing to say that almost all reel slot machines are rigged because the reels are weighted.



I think everyone has been socialized into accepting weighted reels. However, yes, I would say those are rigged too.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TomG
TomG
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miplet
December 3rd, 2018 at 6:27:35 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think it is misleading to say something like, "This jackpot will hit between $2,500 and $5,000," when there is almost no chance of it hitting below $4,990. I admit there is no rule they are breaking, but it just doesn't seem kosher to me.



My thinking is that there might be 250 000 points where it could hit at. But each point doesn't have a 1 in 250 000 chance, the lower numbers might be 1 in 1 000 000, while the higher numbers are only 1 in 100 000 -- I would accept that as a viable way for the machine to maintain their advantage for the house
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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December 4th, 2018 at 1:23:26 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

My thinking is that there might be 250 000 points where it could hit at. But each point doesn't have a 1 in 250 000 chance, the lower numbers might be 1 in 1 000 000, while the higher numbers are only 1 in 100 000 -- I would accept that as a viable way for the machine to maintain their advantage for the house

There is always an advantage for the house unless it's an accident, while always a short-term advantage is what you mean to say, besides when it is almost certainly ready to go off at the eleventh hour. It doesn't thwart APs, it thwarts pseudo APs considering the cat is now out of the bag. Depends if someone runs out of money and hope for the last few dollars. If a manufacturer does this, it's because they think the casino wants this, or to keep the overall payback lower because it doesn't hit as often. If a casino has these games, can you actually trust their slot director's attitude, maybe he or she will submit a payout change anticipating must hits getting close or when progressives getting positive, truly sinister, but I wonder because there are many dastardly people out there.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 6th, 2018 at 6:20:49 AM permalink
I saw four more of these AGS games at the Linq yesterday. Here is an update of my observations.

Date Casino Game Small Large
12/2/2018 Rampart Fire Dragon $324.41 $2,047.06
12/2/2018 Rampart Fire Dragon $278.15 $2,048.22
12/2/2018 Rampart Fire Dragon $226.05 $2,099.95
12/5/2018 Linq River Dragons $230.79 $4,810.44
12/5/2018 Linq River Dragons $223.75 $4,407.18
12/5/2018 Linq River Dragons $225.77 $4,390.90
12/5/2018 Linq River Dragons $442.55 $4,759.56


Note how the smallest of the large jackpots at the Linq is $4,390. However, it is also strange how the three Rampart jackpots are so low. Perhaps they just put them in and they haven't had much time to grow above the $2,000 starting point.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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December 6th, 2018 at 7:36:42 AM permalink
Wiz: many if not most river dragons by AGS have a 4k start point. Others, I think most of the Forest Dragons by AGS, start at 2k, but you will find some of these manufacturers machines start at 4k and others at 2k. Minor afaik is always 200-500.
BTLWI
BTLWI
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December 6th, 2018 at 4:18:25 PM permalink
I've done 25+ majors. $4990/ $490 is the starting drop number. Very rarely they go at some weird number like $4717. The wording in the help screens makes me use the word rigged on these.

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