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Forrem
Forrem
Joined: Mar 10, 2018
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Mission146
March 10th, 2018 at 1:07:11 PM permalink
I have been playing advantageous slots for some time, and with these (mostly Ainsworth brand) 10K majors I have occasionally played with a friend, I am seeing some awfully hard to believe data on the hit points. Like, in a nutshell, it's around 2/3rds of the way-to-the-goal that it hits on average. Maybe played 14-15 times. Not a real scientific result, because I'm only noticing after the fact.

Also, reading tweets on the internet stating that players are finding the AGS Slots are biased toward only paying in the way upper regions.

Two questions...1.) Am I crazy, or are other AP slot players noticing this too. 2.) Can they do this, like is it legal? I mean I see how they CAN do it easily with an algorithm, but, is it legal to say it can be randomly hit and then skew it this way.

FIRST POST.
Mission146
Mission146
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March 10th, 2018 at 3:09:29 PM permalink
Quote: Forrem



Two questions...1.) Am I crazy, or are other AP slot players noticing this too. 2.) Can they do this, like is it legal? I mean I see how they CAN do it easily with an algorithm, but, is it legal to say it can be randomly hit and then skew it this way.

FIRST POST.



Welcome to WoV!

The prevailing theory is that the machine picks a random coin-in amount for it to hit upon reset, which can be anywhere from the first necessary spin to the last.

In terms of it going high before hitting, I would suggest that (even as AP's) it's because we're not paying attention. For example, let's say there's one with a meter that runs all the way from $350-$500, are you REALLY paying attention to any jackpot for which the first number is anything but a four? I'm not. If the second number is anything but an eight or a nine, then I don't care at all.

In other words, I could walk into a casino one day with a specific unit at $388.84, then walk in the next day with it at $352.75 (which means it hit at some point but may not have gotten really high before it did...hell, maybe it hit multiple times) and I'm not going to notice something like that. In essence, we end up with our own sort of confirmation bias because we are only paying any attention to them when they are already high.

Beyond that, as you mentioned, 14-15 occasions is an extremely limited sample size. Another thing it neglects is the mean average hit point, which could be well under 66% even if it goes to 66%+ more often than not for you in your sample.

I don't think it would be legal to call something that is not random random, but who knows? If the machine, "Randomly," picks a hit point, technically nothing is random after the point at which the hit point was selected, even though the hit point itself was selected randomly. In other words, given a certain bet size and where the meter is at v. where it has been selected to hit, the probability of hitting it with a given spin is either 0% or 100%...though the player doesn't know which.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
DRich
DRich
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Mission146
March 10th, 2018 at 3:17:07 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146



In terms of it going high before hitting, I would suggest that (even as AP's) it's because we're not paying attention. For example, let's say there's one with a meter that runs all the way from $350-$500, are you REALLY paying attention to any jackpot for which the first number is anything but a four? I'm not. If the second number is anything but an eight or a nine, then I don't care at all.

In other words, I could walk into a casino one day with a specific unit at $388.84, then walk in the next day with it at $352.75 (which means it hit at some point but may not have gotten really high before it did...hell, maybe it hit multiple times) and I'm not going to notice something like that. In essence, we end up with our own sort of confirmation bias because we are only paying any attention to them when they are already high.



I think most Must-Hits are biased to the top end and it is completely legal and still random. Just because something is random doesn't mean it is equally likely. Think about Megabucks, it is random and yet each symbol is not equally likely. I have never designed a must hit slot but if a did I would definitely weight it to the top end.
Order from chaos
Mission146
Mission146
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March 10th, 2018 at 3:25:53 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I think most Must-Hits are biased to the top end and it is completely legal and still random. Just because something is random doesn't mean it is equally likely. Think about Megabucks, it is random and yet each symbol is not equally likely. I have never designed a must hit slot but if a did I would definitely weight it to the top end.



Do you think it's on such a sliding scale that, assuming it is at $488.00 and the must-hit is $500 that the point is more likely to be $494.00+ rather than anything less than that? I suppose it could be.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
FleaStiff
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March 10th, 2018 at 4:09:14 PM permalink
Jena Choctaw pines casino in Dry Prong, Louisiana seems to have these installed in large numbers.
Great food and great rum, I'm told. Haven't been there.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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Mission146Romes
March 10th, 2018 at 4:56:11 PM permalink
I was told that there are some that can't/won't hit before a certain point. Not sure how true that is, but I wouldn't be surprised.

I definitely don't think the OP is crazy.

I would ask Mamant what his results have been.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Boz
Boz
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Mission146Romes
March 10th, 2018 at 5:06:28 PM permalink
Probably the best 1st post on here in a long time.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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March 10th, 2018 at 9:19:29 PM permalink
Not sure if the NBA still does it this way, but the worst team got 16 balls in the hopper, next got 15, and so on, until the best non-playoff team got 1. Then they would draw for pick order in the draft.

Any team could still win first selection rights. The drawing was random. But the likelihood was heavily weighted towards the worst teams getting high draft order picks.

I figure the must-hits have a similar bias towards higher jackpot numbers before hitting. But I don't program them, so I don't know that.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Forrem
Forrem
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March 11th, 2018 at 1:52:33 AM permalink
Thanks for the warm welcome, guys.

Quote: AxelWolf

I was told that there are some that can't/won't hit before a certain point. Not sure how true that is, but I wouldn't be surprised.



I'm thinking this AGS Gaming's might be one of those must hits that has no chance of hitting before a certain point, but I haven't played them.

And, just to clarify, my data is only on the Ainsworth's Majors that go from 9,000 - 10,000. Here is more specifically what I found after analyzing the data

18 plays (I've included my friends solo plays, so it's higher that my 14-15 plays I mentioned earlier).

Average HIT point: 69.2% of the way!

15 of 18 went over 50%-to-the-goal.
3 of 18 went under 50%-to-the-goal.

The chance of only 3 or fewer favorable "before 50%" hits on the way to 10,000 - if the odds are not skewed to the upper end - are only about 1 in 265! I'm going to say right upfront: I believe Ainsworth is doing this on their 10K majors. Yes, once in 265 trials this would be happening. But I've also heard anecdotally from a few APs their results are similar.

This TOTALLY would change the starting point for playing these 10K majors, and I think it is deceptive (probably legal though) and I don't like that skewing may be happening on some machines and not on others. I don't think certain minors skew at all.
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
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March 11th, 2018 at 5:54:09 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I would ask Mamat what his results have been.

Thanks Axel.

Haven't looked at any data for about 2-3 years, but Ainsworth 10Ks seem to be pretty uniform from $9,000 to 10,000 (average movement within 1% of 50%)...and the return is pretty close to theoretical (within 1%). If you get a chance to look at machine summary pages, the lifetime actual return is usually within 0.5% of theo.

Know six people who've dropped one on 1st spin, and heard of seven 10,000 drops (meaning 9,999.xx rounded up).
Also looked at percentage dropping in first 10%, and last 10%, and they seem comparable.
You could do a complete decile comparison - first 10%, 2nd 10%, ..., last 10% to see how flat it is, but I haven't bothered.

In 2017, I dropped 11 10Ks within first 20K coin-in (+30 on major), slightly higher than expected (9).

Variance on Ainsworth 10Ks: 15-25 game losing streaks are fairly common.
I'd say looking at any data less than 50 games is very random.
Sometimes you get a streak of fast drops, other times a streak of 9,999, 9,997, 9,995.

Never bothered to analyze Ainsworth $5K, $500 major (or minor), $400 major, or $200 minor. So don't know.

Note: Never seen an Ainsworth 10K meter at anything other than $667, but I have seen a 5K meter at $2,000 (got whomped on that one chasing the minor, which had a $667 meter).
10K minor meters can be $250 or $222 or (who knows). ALWAYS check your meters.

-----
AGS 5Ks are another beast.
Personal guess is 97% drop 4,990-5,000 (uniform within that), and 3% earlier. Likewise for the minor (97% drop 490-500).
There just aren't any 4,989 and 489 drops...

Machine settings on two different themes - combined progressives are 2.07% (would be 4% if uniform, 2% if always went to 5,000 & 500).

However, there is no guarantee that other AGS machines are not set at 2.07%.

P.S. I have never seen an early AGS drop (major or minor), but a friend claims he's seen two early majors and played six early minors.

----
Heard a guess that Konami 5Ks and 10Ks are biased high (but never seen any analysis).

Hate the $2K, $5K, $10K Konamis because the variance is so high, so I rarely ever play them.
Last edited by: mamat on Mar 11, 2018

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