Luck is a strange thing
May 26th, 2016 at 3:17:31 AM
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First and foremost my "slot team" and I are poker players. But since we're at the casino 8-10 hours a day anyway, might as well scout for these. My main partner is an early bird and I'm a night owl so when he's leaving he texts me what's approaching and I do the same at 5am when I leave. A third guy is afternoon to evening (but not 100% reliable) so we have a solid 20 hours coverage per day, more if machine camping is required.
The Stakeout
In mid April there's a $4000-$5000 (Major) machine getting within our acceptable range. It's kind of off in the back so it doesn't get as much play as it would in a more prominent location - good and bad I guess. A guy has been playing it heavily over a few days and really moving the meter up. It finally reaches our target profit number but the guy is still playing. A friend of mine knows the guy playing and says he has infinite money and won't be giving it up now -apparently he's already stuck $5,000 on it. Based on recent action I've seen, I now 100% believe him, this guy gets on shit ridiculously early and rides them all the way up profit be damned.
Unlucky - Part I
Afternoon guy and I finish up a poker session at 2:30 AM and decide to go play NSUD for our bonus play that started at midnight. He wants to go to the private VIP lounge (I'm highest tier) but I say, "nah, let's go to the 'open to all' high limit section of the main casino." I'll spare the full details but as soon as we each put our cards and money into the VP machines a crazy guy pulls out a gun saying he's going to rob and shoot everyone in the room. We're near the exit and he's got his back to us so we grab our tickets and book it out of there. Right as we're running out of the "room" we hear the first gunshot go off (luckily nobody was hurt). It's about 2:40 AM.
Lucky - Part I
Its 3AM and we're outside along with 100 others that choose the same exit doors as us, unable to get to the parking garage to leave, everything is on lockdown. Watching infinite cop cars show up. By 5 AM they tell us the casino is closing and everyone needs to/can now leave. I get home and adrenaline is still pumping so I'm looking at Facebook and the news to see any additional details. At 7 AM on Facebook I see a post saying the casino is going to open at 7:30 AM. Wow, what are the chances machine guy left the casino, went home and is now aware they're open again and back on the machine? It's worth a 15 minute drive to the casino to find out.
Lucky - Part II
There are literally zero cars in VIP parking which is a very good sign. As I walk in the casino is very sparse. As I approach the machine I don't see the guy!! 😂. However I do see a new different guy on the machine 😭. And he's got $300+ in credits. That doesn't mean much but it could be a long wait. Well I decide to camp it out and play the machine behind it $.25 at a time. After about 10 minutes the guy gets on his phone. This could be good. I hear the ticket cashout sound and my pulse races. Of course lots of slot players cash out and put the same ticket right back in to "change their luck". But not today! This guy grabs his ticket and gets up. I immediately cash out and insert my ticket into the target machine. I've never played the game and have only clocked it from behind. I decide to take this time to play $1 at a time and reliably clock the meters. During clocking the guy I sniped the machine from comes back with another person and throws his hands up in the air. Probably had his friend bring a truckload of money and went to meet him at the front door. Sorry dude, should have just asked a slot attendant to watch the machine.
Unlucky - Part II
Clocking is done and it's a go! I send an image to our private Facebook chat group asking if they're ready to party?
https://imgur.com/1sZEABI
They can't believe I got it.
It's 8:00 AM and we decide to meet at 10 AM with money. Since I'm VIP I can lock a machine up for a few hours. They take down your name and card number, disable the machine and let you know what time you have to be back by. We have until 10:15 AM.
At 9:40 AM everyone is there and ready. We get it unlocked and start at playing at 9:45 AM. It's a 5-line $.25 machine with 1-3 credits per bet. We decide to start at $2.50/spin for time and variance consideration. You can't fast spin this machine to stop the animation early but you can place a full water bottle on the spin button to auto spin. $1000 coin in worth of player points before switching spinners.
Things don't start off very well. We go extremely long time without bonuses. The base games don't seem to be paying well. Keep in mind there's 3 of us, here's how much each of us put in to start
-$200 9:45 AM (-$600)
-$200 10:30 AM (-$600)
-$200 11:45 AM (-$600)
-$200 12:47 PM (-$600)
-$200 2:04 PM (-$600)
What kind of party is this? We've lost $600 an hour for 5 straight hours. Just shy of $6,500 coin in, down $2,400 ($600 in machine) and we've only moved the meter $13, with up to $19,000 coin in to go if it takes us to the top!. Have we made a mistake somewhere? Does this game really only pay back the state minimum of 80%? Could it possibly be set even lower than that? We figured a $.25 game would be around 88%. It's currently paying at 50% and we're set to lose a lot of money if it goes to the top at this payback rate. Is this karma for sniping the machine? What about karma for almost getting shot 12 hours earlier?
At 1:30 pm we had decided to lower our bet to $1.25 to lower variance and get as many bonuses as possible. As a side note, the guy that was on the machine for 3 days straight has walked by about six times so far. A few other known 'machine guys' have come by multiple times as well. After 5 pm it seemed they all realized we weren't giving up and I didn't see any of them after that.
Lucky - Part III
After 5 straight hours of ass pounding things somehow turn around. Bonuses become more frequent, retriggers happen often and multipliers are hitting on pay lines in the bonus games. We go 7 straight hours without inserting any additional money into the machine. In fact we hit multiple really good bonus rounds of $500-$900, one minor at $190 and actually start dispersing money back.
+$200 9:00 PM (+$600)
+$300 9:15 PM (+$900)
+$225 11:00 PM (+$675)
5 minutes later the moment we were all waiting for
https://imgur.com/akBU0oc
+$1690 11:05 PM (+$5070.25 progressive + credits)
Final game payback was 94% excluding Minor and Major! Hourly rate of $106 each, not too bad! Plus $40 in points and enough comps for me to get a 22oz Ribeye and 2 IPAs the next night. Tip included 😉
https://imgur.com/pNEnIts
A short tale of getting unlucky and lucky. Maybe there is no such thing as luck in gambling, just math and short term variance.
The Stakeout
In mid April there's a $4000-$5000 (Major) machine getting within our acceptable range. It's kind of off in the back so it doesn't get as much play as it would in a more prominent location - good and bad I guess. A guy has been playing it heavily over a few days and really moving the meter up. It finally reaches our target profit number but the guy is still playing. A friend of mine knows the guy playing and says he has infinite money and won't be giving it up now -apparently he's already stuck $5,000 on it. Based on recent action I've seen, I now 100% believe him, this guy gets on shit ridiculously early and rides them all the way up profit be damned.
Unlucky - Part I
Afternoon guy and I finish up a poker session at 2:30 AM and decide to go play NSUD for our bonus play that started at midnight. He wants to go to the private VIP lounge (I'm highest tier) but I say, "nah, let's go to the 'open to all' high limit section of the main casino." I'll spare the full details but as soon as we each put our cards and money into the VP machines a crazy guy pulls out a gun saying he's going to rob and shoot everyone in the room. We're near the exit and he's got his back to us so we grab our tickets and book it out of there. Right as we're running out of the "room" we hear the first gunshot go off (luckily nobody was hurt). It's about 2:40 AM.
Lucky - Part I
Its 3AM and we're outside along with 100 others that choose the same exit doors as us, unable to get to the parking garage to leave, everything is on lockdown. Watching infinite cop cars show up. By 5 AM they tell us the casino is closing and everyone needs to/can now leave. I get home and adrenaline is still pumping so I'm looking at Facebook and the news to see any additional details. At 7 AM on Facebook I see a post saying the casino is going to open at 7:30 AM. Wow, what are the chances machine guy left the casino, went home and is now aware they're open again and back on the machine? It's worth a 15 minute drive to the casino to find out.
Lucky - Part II
There are literally zero cars in VIP parking which is a very good sign. As I walk in the casino is very sparse. As I approach the machine I don't see the guy!! 😂. However I do see a new different guy on the machine 😭. And he's got $300+ in credits. That doesn't mean much but it could be a long wait. Well I decide to camp it out and play the machine behind it $.25 at a time. After about 10 minutes the guy gets on his phone. This could be good. I hear the ticket cashout sound and my pulse races. Of course lots of slot players cash out and put the same ticket right back in to "change their luck". But not today! This guy grabs his ticket and gets up. I immediately cash out and insert my ticket into the target machine. I've never played the game and have only clocked it from behind. I decide to take this time to play $1 at a time and reliably clock the meters. During clocking the guy I sniped the machine from comes back with another person and throws his hands up in the air. Probably had his friend bring a truckload of money and went to meet him at the front door. Sorry dude, should have just asked a slot attendant to watch the machine.
Unlucky - Part II
Clocking is done and it's a go! I send an image to our private Facebook chat group asking if they're ready to party?
https://imgur.com/1sZEABI
They can't believe I got it.
It's 8:00 AM and we decide to meet at 10 AM with money. Since I'm VIP I can lock a machine up for a few hours. They take down your name and card number, disable the machine and let you know what time you have to be back by. We have until 10:15 AM.
At 9:40 AM everyone is there and ready. We get it unlocked and start at playing at 9:45 AM. It's a 5-line $.25 machine with 1-3 credits per bet. We decide to start at $2.50/spin for time and variance consideration. You can't fast spin this machine to stop the animation early but you can place a full water bottle on the spin button to auto spin. $1000 coin in worth of player points before switching spinners.
Things don't start off very well. We go extremely long time without bonuses. The base games don't seem to be paying well. Keep in mind there's 3 of us, here's how much each of us put in to start
-$200 9:45 AM (-$600)
-$200 10:30 AM (-$600)
-$200 11:45 AM (-$600)
-$200 12:47 PM (-$600)
-$200 2:04 PM (-$600)
What kind of party is this? We've lost $600 an hour for 5 straight hours. Just shy of $6,500 coin in, down $2,400 ($600 in machine) and we've only moved the meter $13, with up to $19,000 coin in to go if it takes us to the top!. Have we made a mistake somewhere? Does this game really only pay back the state minimum of 80%? Could it possibly be set even lower than that? We figured a $.25 game would be around 88%. It's currently paying at 50% and we're set to lose a lot of money if it goes to the top at this payback rate. Is this karma for sniping the machine? What about karma for almost getting shot 12 hours earlier?
At 1:30 pm we had decided to lower our bet to $1.25 to lower variance and get as many bonuses as possible. As a side note, the guy that was on the machine for 3 days straight has walked by about six times so far. A few other known 'machine guys' have come by multiple times as well. After 5 pm it seemed they all realized we weren't giving up and I didn't see any of them after that.
Lucky - Part III
After 5 straight hours of ass pounding things somehow turn around. Bonuses become more frequent, retriggers happen often and multipliers are hitting on pay lines in the bonus games. We go 7 straight hours without inserting any additional money into the machine. In fact we hit multiple really good bonus rounds of $500-$900, one minor at $190 and actually start dispersing money back.
+$200 9:00 PM (+$600)
+$300 9:15 PM (+$900)
+$225 11:00 PM (+$675)
5 minutes later the moment we were all waiting for
https://imgur.com/akBU0oc
+$1690 11:05 PM (+$5070.25 progressive + credits)
Final game payback was 94% excluding Minor and Major! Hourly rate of $106 each, not too bad! Plus $40 in points and enough comps for me to get a 22oz Ribeye and 2 IPAs the next night. Tip included 😉
https://imgur.com/pNEnIts
A short tale of getting unlucky and lucky. Maybe there is no such thing as luck in gambling, just math and short term variance.
May 26th, 2016 at 6:37:10 AM
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Great story! Love that short adrenaline rush when it opens up. Important lesson here: if you want to guarantee lots of bonus rounds just lower your wager ;)
100% risk of ruin
May 26th, 2016 at 7:30:18 AM
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I'm not even sure that is a play- depends on meter- did I miss what you said the meter was?
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
May 26th, 2016 at 7:39:56 AM
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It was a play even if the meter rate was $4.50 per penny... so it 'probably' was a play.
Really interesting story with a lot of twists and turns! Appreciate you telling it for us and good job on the hit!!
Really interesting story with a lot of twists and turns! Appreciate you telling it for us and good job on the hit!!
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
May 26th, 2016 at 7:45:01 AM
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I didn't do they math to the penny- I usually use a quick rule of thumb that is always safe- play them when meter is within 5 percent of the difference in the spread i.e. Spread is 1k play at within 50 of the max-
It' gives up some plays but it's easy to breeze past when there are a ton of machines
It' gives up some plays but it's easy to breeze past when there are a ton of machines
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
May 26th, 2016 at 11:09:01 AM
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Who took the hit with the W2G?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
May 26th, 2016 at 11:47:18 AM
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Quote: AyecarumbaWho took the hit with the W2G?
We split it using IRS form 5754.
May 26th, 2016 at 12:15:06 PM
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Meter is $4.75 Major and $2.50 Mini.
Mini is 2.8% of game payback
Major is 1.9% of game payback
Only 6283 movements to $4999.99 = $29,844.25.
Easy money.
Mini is 2.8% of game payback
Major is 1.9% of game payback
Only 6283 movements to $4999.99 = $29,844.25.
Easy money.
May 26th, 2016 at 12:20:53 PM
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You stated the state has a minimum payback of 80%. If this is the case, and 5% of that is payed back in the progressives, then you're looking at a base game of about 75%...
EV(Base Game Alone) = TotalWagered * HouseEdge = (29,844.25)*(-.25) = -7,372.06
Curious, did you look up the machine online to find out the Mini and Major game payback percentage?
EV(Base Game Alone) = TotalWagered * HouseEdge = (29,844.25)*(-.25) = -7,372.06
Curious, did you look up the machine online to find out the Mini and Major game payback percentage?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
May 26th, 2016 at 1:03:57 PM
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Quote: RomesYou stated the state has a minimum payback of 80%. If this is the case, and 5% of that is payed back in the progressives, then you're looking at a base game of about 75%...
EV(Base Game Alone) = TotalWagered * HouseEdge = (29,844.25)*(-.25) = -7,372.06
Curious, did you look up the machine online to find out the Mini and Major game payback percentage?
I didn't know major/mini payback pwrcentages were available to the public
