Nice Little Advantage Play

Quote: Mission146

Thanks, Mickey.

I tend to wonder if people who think plays like this are garbage wouldn't stop to pick up a $10 bill on the ground that had no apparent owner out of fear of wrenching their back. It's the same thing, except the machine has a somewhat comfortable chair, so wrenching your back is even less likely.

I challenge you to keep a record of all plays you find on this machine and the net results, posting them with the setup that you played. Your numbers are based on a short sample size and you haven't even posted a standard or logic for what setups you decide to play.

Ill structure a bet with you. If you can average ten dollars per play over a big sample size with reasonable sample size with agreed upon standards and a time limit, then you win, if not I win. If you are checking it anyway, why not?

Quote: mickeycrimm

The smallest play I have I'm betting just one nickel. When I walk by the machine I have to stop and punch the game up to see what is banked. I might get a play 25% of the time. I have to stick a bill in the machine and spin it off, then cash out and get an attendant to cash the ticket. It's an average $7 win when I get a play. The whole process doesn't take more than a few minutes. Now, I'm in the casino looking for bigger plays. But I never pass this small play up. I'm there so why shouldn't I take the money even though it's a small earn. It's adds about $200 a month to my bottom line.

Frost and Fire on old Spielos checking those suns?

Quote: randomperson

I challenge you to keep a record of all plays you find on this machine and the net results, posting them with the setup that you played. Your numbers are based on a short sample size and you haven't even posted a standard or logic for what setups you decide to play.

Ill structure a bet with you. If you can average ten dollars per play over a big sample size with reasonable sample size with agreed upon standards and a time limit, then you win, if not I win. If you are checking it anyway, why not?

I will accept the first part of your Challenge, and I play all setups, except for the purposes of the Challenge, I'll probably discontinue playing fifth reel only situations, unless it is going to be more than just one Wild.

I need a little clarification on the second part:

1.) What do you mean by, "Time limit," what time limit? You want a, "Big sample size," but you also want a time limit, and simply put, I'm not driving to the casino just to look for the plays there on a daily basis. Even if I yielded an average of $10 each time, that still would barely be profitable when you factor in gas costs, and then there's the time it takes to get to and from there...so really, I guess I'm saying I'm only going to go and do it if I would already be going anyway, which is generally a minimum of four times per month and maximum of six times per month.

2.) Define, "Play." Is that per machine or per time I look for it? My $10 was based on when I look for it and includes all three machines, so it's $10 total, not $30 total.

3.) Define, "Reasonable sample size," I've already stated about how often you can expect me to be there.

4.) The machines may also have an occupant, or occupants, at times, so an average of $3.33 for each machine I check seems more correct than $10 every time I go there and check them.

Quote: Mission146

I will accept the first part of your Challenge, and I play all setups, except for the purposes of the Challenge, I'll probably discontinue playing fifth reel only situations, unless it is going to be more than just one Wild.

I need a little clarification on the second part:

1.) What do you mean by, "Time limit," what time limit? You want a, "Big sample size," but you also want a time limit, and simply put, I'm not driving to the casino just to look for the plays there on a daily basis. Even if I yielded an average of $10 each time, that still would barely be profitable when you factor in gas costs, and then there's the time it takes to get to and from there...so really, I guess I'm saying I'm only going to go and do it if I would already be going anyway, which is generally a minimum of four times per month and maximum of six times per month.

2.) Define, "Play." Is that per machine or per time I look for it? My $10 was based on when I look for it and includes all three machines, so it's $10 total, not $30 total.

3.) Define, "Reasonable sample size," I've already stated about how often you can expect me to be there.

4.) The machines may also have an occupant, or occupants, at times, so an average of $3.33 for each machine I check seems more correct than $10 every time I go there and check them.

Lets do a dollars per machine checked number like you said. You have to check all open machines. Would 100 machine checks be reasonable? I think the 3.33 per machine is a good over under for me. Lets throw time limit out the window because that was just there so you couldn't wait for the best plays only. Post the results as you go. Start the records from the day we agree to the terms.

Quote: randomperson

Lets do a dollars per machine checked number like you said. You have to check all open machines. Would 100 machine checks be reasonable? I think the 3.33 per machine is a good over under for me. Lets throw time limit out the window because that was just there so you couldn't wait for the best plays only. Post the results as you go. Start the records from the day we agree to the terms.

I'm good with everything, except:

1.) I think 200 would be better.

2.) I think only, "First checks," that day should count. IOW, if I've already checked it and there was nothing on it, then it would say, "Paid 2000 Credits," so if it says anything but that next time I walk by, I'll usually check it again, but the opportunity is not quite the same because the person likely played only one bet amount. Basically, if, "Second checks," count, I'm just not going to check them a second time that day.

Quote: Mission146

I'm good with everything, except:

1.) I think 200 would be better.

2.) I think only, "First checks," that day should count. IOW, if I've already checked it and there was nothing on it, then it would say, "Paid 2000 Credits," so if it says anything but that next time I walk by, I'll usually check it again, but the opportunity is not quite the same because the person likely played only one bet amount. Basically, if, "Second checks," count, I'm just not going to check them a second time that day.

Sounds good, 200 machine checks and only the first check per day counts on each machine. If you check it again, don't count it even if you happen to find a play.

I don't think a study is necessary considering a certain percentage of the payback. Common sense tells you it's the best time to play with the extra feature available without risk to win it. Usually these types of things have a quick rate of diminished returns once more and more frequent visitors find it as a BR booster. If the game lasts two years, I would bet the last year would be real close almost zero opportunities for play.

Quote: randomperson

Sounds good, 200 machine checks and only the first check per day counts on each machine. If you check it again, don't count it even if you happen to find a play.

What are we betting anyway, in terms of amount, or is this a gentleman's bet?

Quote: Mission146

What are we betting anyway, in terms of amount, or is this a gentleman's bet?

I would hope something small since this is all going to be based on your word and I care more about the data than the result. I would be fine with twenty or fifty bucks without some verification by a third party.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

I don't think a study is necessary considering a certain percentage of the payback. Common sense tells you it's the best time to play with the extra feature available without risk to win it. Usually these types of things have a quick rate of diminished returns once more and more frequent visitors find it as a BR booster. If the game lasts two years, I would bet the last year would be real close almost zero opportunities for play.

Best time to play isn't necessarily a good time to play.

Quote: randomperson

I would hope something small since this is all going to be based on your word and I care more about the data than the result. I would be fine with twenty or fifty bucks without some verification by a third party.

I have a question. Are you wanting to make this bet to understand if their are enough available plays. Or are you just disputing how much a play is worth on average? If the latter is the case, I think I may want to get some action in on this wager.

I don't know what way I want to bet, because.... I have yet to see the machines.

If you or mission want to make a larger wager concerning this matter, I would be interested.

Since you only have missions word to go on, and that may concern you, with possibly cherry picking machines or data, mistakes in data recording or for whatever reasons.

I have an Idea that would take all the extended time and data recording issues. Assuming the cost is not going to be extremely high. I will find a machine and play it and record it. what ever spins is necessary to get the data needed.

Mission how many spins do you thinks it takes before there is a playable situation. How many coins per line is needed to bring up a playable situation? Dose the number of coins played on the previous game affect the number of coins you play when picking them off? My question is: If i can explain it properly, since i have yet to see this machine. Dose how much you make on a machine (excluding luck) have anything do do with how many coins the last person played? What denominations do they come in? Is it set up like a ultimate X play where if you find them at high denominations you average per machine would be high?

If that is the case I don't know how my experiment could simulate what your average earn per machine is.

Quote: randomperson

I would hope something small since this is all going to be based on your word and I care more about the data than the result. I would be fine with twenty or fifty bucks without some verification by a third party.

Either $20 or $0, then, whichever you prefer. I don't care either way. I think Even Money is fair if you do want to put money on it, I wasn't over-estimating or under-estimating, to the best of my knowledge, when I went $10/visit.

Quote: AxelWolf

If you or mission want to make a larger wager concerning this matter, I would be interested.

I'm going to respectfully decline, when I threw out my average value of checking the set of three machines ($10.00, ergo, $3.33/machine) out there, I was pretty much representing what I think is a fair assessment based on my experience with the machine. If I thought said assessment would have set up an even money bet, I'd have picked a lower number than what I actually believe and hoped for someone to challenge me on the lower number.

Quote:

I have an Idea that would take all the extended time and data recording issues. Assuming the cost is not going to be extremely high. I will find a machine and play it and record it. what ever spins is necessary to get the data needed.

That wouldn't work correctly, the play is about vulturing it, not playing it through. There's really no easy way to simulate vulturing it.

There's no real way to quantify how often people are going to leave Wilds behind, or at which of the five bet levels (if not more than one) where Wilds will be found, so there's really no way to simulate it by just playing the machine.

Quote:

Mission how many spins do you thinks it takes before there is a playable situation. How many coins per line is needed to bring up a playable situation? Dose the number of coins played on the previous game affect the number of coins you play when picking them off? My question is: If i can explain it properly, since i have yet to see this machine. Dose how much you make on a machine (excluding luck) have anything do do with how many coins the last person played? What denominations do they come in? Is it set up like a ultimate X play where if you find them at high denominations you average per machine would be high?

If that is the case I don't know how my experiment could simulate what your average earn per machine is.

There's no way to tell because, not only must the spin result in there being Wilds in the first place, but the person also has to leave those Wilds behind. The main way this happens is that you'll notice the number of credits Paid (or left behind) isn't enough to take another spin.

Okay, here's how it works, there are five bet levels:

.30, .60, .90, $1.50, $3.00

Each of those bet levels has its own reel assignment, and if you change bet levels is does NOT automatically take a spin, so you can go through and check each bet level to see if any Wilds are left behind without ever actually making a play. Sometimes, you'll find Wilds have been left behind at multiple bet levels.

Now, for 200 machines checked, I'm looking for 200 * 3.33 = $666, which I think is quite possible. I would say that I go to this casino about four times per month, so that will be 12 checks per month, which means we will know in 16.66 months.

Quote: AxelWolf

I have a question. Are you wanting to make this bet to understand if their are enough available plays. Or are you just disputing how much a play is worth on average? If the latter is the case, I think I may want to get some action in on this wager.

I don't know what way I want to bet, because.... I have yet to see the machines.

If you or mission want to make a larger wager concerning this matter, I would be interested.

Since you only have missions word to go on, and that may concern you, with possibly cherry picking machines or data, mistakes in data recording or for whatever reasons.

I have an Idea that would take all the extended time and data recording issues. Assuming the cost is not going to be extremely high. I will find a machine and play it and record it. what ever spins is necessary to get the data needed.

Mission how many spins do you thinks it takes before there is a playable situation. How many coins per line is needed to bring up a playable situation? Dose the number of coins played on the previous game affect the number of coins you play when picking them off? My question is: If i can explain it properly, since i have yet to see this machine. Dose how much you make on a machine (excluding luck) have anything do do with how many coins the last person played? What denominations do they come in? Is it set up like a ultimate X play where if you find them at high denominations you average per machine would be high?

If that is the case I don't know how my experiment could simulate what your average earn per machine is.

Think about what you are suggesting on ultimate x. The average vulture play is way worse than the average self created play, because people are much less likely to cash out after a win. If you played a hand, generated multipliers and then kept track of the results you would do much better than straight up vulturing.

The more interesting thing is what is available left over from customers.

Quote: Mission146

Either $20 or $0, then, whichever you prefer. I don't care either way. I think Even Money is fair if you do want to put money on it, I wasn't over-estimating or under-estimating, to the best of my knowledge, when I went $10/visit.

All right, lets just do this for science and set the bet at zero.

Went looking at my local casino for these games, found a Bally's money vault machine but it was a progressive machine.

Does it also have stacked Wilds that operate the same way? If so, that it is a Progressive should not be terribly relevant.

Quote: Mission146

Does it also have stacked Wilds that operate the same way? If so, that it is a Progressive should not be terribly relevant.

No the wilds when appeared would pop and cause wilds to pop up on other reels as well, the wilds did not progress down the line. Also when choosing different denominations it would not switch reel assignments before you spin, it would just spin.

Quote: Transcend

No the wilds when appeared would pop and cause wilds to pop up on other reels as well, the wilds did not progress down the line. Also when choosing different denominations it would not switch reel assignments before you spin, it would just spin.

Cool, for future reference, it appears in the Help/Rules whether or not it has stacked Wilds, so you can check that first without risking any money.

Quote: Mission146

Cool, for future reference, it appears in the Help/Rules whether or not it has stacked Wilds, so you can check that first without risking any money.

Do you ever feel a little strange about looking through the rules before putting money in? I mean, it's a casino... you are (or at least could be) constantly being watched.

For a related example, every ultimate X VP machine I've ever seen is multi-denom, multi-game. Checking 15 games at 3 denoms each means checking 45 games. This is a long time to sit in front of a machine playing with the menu items without playing. To do all this, then play 1 hand, and leave, seems a little strange to me.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Do you ever feel a little strange about looking through the rules before putting money in? I mean, it's a casino... you are (or at least could be) constantly being watched.

For a related example, every ultimate X VP machine I've ever seen is multi-denom, multi-game. Checking 15 games at 3 denoms each means checking 45 games. This is a long time to sit in front of a machine playing with the menu items without playing. To do all this, then play 1 hand, and leave, seems a little strange to me.

I haven't had quite as many opportunities at vulturing Ultimate X since it is not at my local casino, but I would probably put $20, or something, in and ticket it back out if there was nothing good just to make a show of it.

Also, if you're touching the screen and hitting buttons I'd be really surprised if the eye in the sky is paying much attention to what you are doing. As relates any slots AP at the casino close to me, I might make a play for a very small amount if a floorperson is walking by, but I'd be really surprised if they generally care.

With respect to checking through the Rules, you can do that in seconds, so I'd be really surprised if anyone noticed you. If they did, what would they even say? I doubt if they would back you off for checking through the Rules of a game, I've seen people do much worse in casinos.

That's the main reason I never worry about vulturing any kind of Progressives. Why would they care? My advantage is not derived from an actual advantage against the casino (as the case with card-counting, hole-carding, etc) my advantage is derived by the fact that other people played the machine and did not hit the Progressive. Someone will eventually win the Progressive, so they have no reason to care whether or not it is me.

The only edges that are Variable on a Progressive slot are my Player Edge and the Edge against the players who played before me. The House Edge is fixed at the 1 - (Base Pays) - (Meter Increase) so again, I don't see why they would care at all.

I only play Rock Around the Clock when it is near Bonus Games, but someone will definitely hit for Bonus Games, so why should they care if it is me or anyone else.

In summary, I just don't think they pay much attention to Slots or VP AP, and if they do, maybe to VP AP, so when I have those opportunities, I'll be more cautious to try to be discreet.

Whether or not anyone has been backed off or trespassed, or really given any trouble at all, would make for an interesting thread, so perhaps I'll start it later.

Only trouble I've ever had was when I was going to, "Deconstruct," a Quick Hits flat-top, so I got a 24 hour ban for writing down the results of all of my spins because the suit didn't like that.

I was reading "Robbing the One-Armed bandits". It's mostly useless information now (90% of the book is plays on specific games that haven't existed in years), but I like reading about advantage play, even if the play is dead. I find it interesting in theory, if not in practice.

Anyway, the book is not that good (nothing in there that I could not figure out myself), but the guy who wrote it mentioned that he was backed off from several casinos.

While it's true that the casino makes the same amount of money whether you hit the bonus or the ploppy hits the bonus, their customers are the ploppies. When the ploppy hits the bonus, that makes the ploppy happy, and keeping the customers happy is important in any business. Every one that you hit is one that the ploppy does not hit. You can see why they would rather have someone who loses $1000/week in their casino hit a $500 bonus than have you hit it -- this is what keeps the big losers coming back.

Quote: Mission146

That's the main reason I never worry about vulturing any kind of Progressives. Why would they care? My advantage is not derived from an actual advantage against the casino (as the case with card-counting, hole-carding, etc) my advantage is derived by the fact that other people played the machine and did not hit the Progressive. Someone will eventually win the Progressive, so they have no reason to care whether or not it is me.

casinos do in fact care about this type of thing, that's a fact. They have tossed out hustlers for this in VEGAS for UX hunting, not sure about other cities. They have been concerned with this stuff for many years, even in the early 90's and probably before that. You are taking the ploppies money from other ploppies and not spending it in the casino. Its the same reason they don't like progressive AP's hitting the progressives. Bonus hunting machines often leads to some sketchy type of characters in the casino, being that a very low bankroll is needed. There is a story about a knife fight at the Bellagio over a bonus machine.

I do very little UX poking in casinos, depending on the casino, I am always tempted and I will pick and chose carefully. I'm not sure how much you can make doing this in Vegas anyways.

Nothing makes casino management madder than seeing a TEAM tied up a bank of machines, and your regular customer going out
the door.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I was reading "Robbing the One-Armed bandits". It's mostly useless information now (90% of the book is plays on specific games that haven't existed in years), but I like reading about advantage play, even if the play is dead. I find it interesting in theory, if not in practice.

Anyway, the book is not that good (nothing in there that I could not figure out myself), but the guy who wrote it mentioned that he was backed off from several casinos.

While it's true that the casino makes the same amount of money whether you hit the bonus or the ploppy hits the bonus, their customers are the ploppies. When the ploppy hits the bonus, that makes the ploppy happy, and keeping the customers happy is important in any business. Every one that you hit is one that the ploppy does not hit. You can see why they would rather have someone who loses $1000/week in their casino hit a $500 bonus than have you hit it -- this is what keeps the big losers coming back.

I think, I must have been typing at the same time you were, but you posted first or i would not have bothered. The time gap must have been due to being distracted.

Quote: AxelWolf

I think, I must have been typing at the same time you were, but you posted first or i would not have bothered. The time gap must have been due to being distracted.

Meh, mid-air collisions are common.

BTW, I sent you a PM a few days ago that you didn't even read....

Quote: randomperson

Think about what you are suggesting on ultimate x. The average vulture play is way worse than the average self created play, because people are much less likely to cash out after a win. If you played a hand, generated multipliers and then kept track of the results you would do much better than straight up vulturing.

The more interesting thing is what is available left over from customers.

I totally understand that I was not sure if you guys were arguing about how often you could find one, or what the value was once you did find one. I have a feeling you are not finding this situation at some incredible rate. I still think its worth checking if you are walking past a machine, assuming it wont get you kicked out. In missions case, he has a real job and limited casinos and plays to choose from. I never even knew these machines existed before he said something. Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing. Mission lovable humble informative source? or future Bob dancer, you decide.

Axel, I'm not sure what you're quoting ("randomperson"?) but your EV is obviously higher straight-up vulturing (playing for 5 credits/hand, of course -- not 10)

Quote: AxelWolf

There is a story about a knife fight at the Bellagio over a bonus machine.

I witnessed an altercation at the M casino where multiple people were fighting to get on one of my machines after a customer left a bonus almost completed. There are still a few of those machines in Las Vegas. All my newer games clear the "bonus" if a player cashes out or the game sits idle for X seconds.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Meh, mid-air collisions are common.

BTW, I sent you a PM a few days ago that you didn't even read....

OH sorry I didn't realize, deleting...i mean reading now:) The funny thing is I was just going to PM you right before i read this. I miss some PM's if they get pushed to a second page as new ones come in. Juice J just keeps blowing up my PM box. Just in case this has happens to someone else forgive me because I probably just missed it. I often just x out the new PM warning and look at them all at one time.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Do you ever feel a little strange about looking through the rules before putting money in? I mean, it's a casino... you are (or at least could be) constantly being watched.

For a related example, every ultimate X VP machine I've ever seen is multi-denom, multi-game. Checking 15 games at 3 denoms each means checking 45 games. This is a long time to sit in front of a machine playing with the menu items without playing. To do all this, then play 1 hand, and leave, seems a little strange to me.

I looked through the help section on a few games today and the people sitting next to the machines I was looking at seemed a little perplexed that I was looking at the help section.

Quote: AxelWolf

OH sorry I didn't realize, deleting...i mean reading now:) The funny thing is I was just going to PM you right before i read this. I miss some PM's if they get pushed to a second page as new ones come in. Juice J just keeps blowing up my PM box. Just in case this has happens to someone else forgive me because I probably just missed it. I often just x out the new PM warning and look at them all at one time.

Haha, you're obviously a lot more popular than I am! Between people like me trying to get AP information and all the hot ladies chatting you up, your PMs are scrolling off the page.

I try to help out where I can but I don't get anywhere near that volume. I have been helping someone with some simulation software though (over PM) so I can feel as though I did my part (even if I do get more information than I give) :)

Casinos care by not offering the machines if they think it's leaking. Players they only care when they cause disturbances or are into dishonest behavior but not always. I met a guy once who told me he was kicked out a place in New Mexico because he left his card in a machine and someone played on his card, but he said because he was playing Diamond Mines. They're always kicked out for stupid things they shouldn't be doing like stealing towels from hotels because they're greedy.

Quote: DRich

All my newer games clear the "bonus" if a player cashes out or the game sits idle for X seconds.

Sorry, I either missed the discussion or my memory fails. Are you able to name any names? (Are they "community" games?)

I'm imagining a player running out of credits and dashing to either the ATM for a withdrawal, or a ticket machine to convert their final remaining Benji to fives. That could set up an unpleasant surprise when they return to their machine.

Quote: gpac1377

Sorry, I either missed the discussion or my memory fails. Are you able to name any names? (Are they "community" games?)

I'm imagining a player running out of credits and dashing to either the ATM for a withdrawal, or a ticket machine to convert their final remaining Benji to fives. That could set up an unpleasant surprise when they return to their machine.

They are not community games, more like individual banking games. The screen warns the player that it will reset in X seconds if credits aren't loaded. They will not have time to leave the machine to get more funds. Casino's tend to set it at 10-20 seconds but the player can reset the timer while they are at the game in case they need to dig money out of a purse or wallet.

Quote: DRich

Casino's tend to set it at 10-20 seconds but the player can reset the timer while they are at the game in case they need to dig money out of a purse or wallet.

Interesting, thanks. The general concept of time limits intrigues me, especially if adapted to strategy games. But that's a topic for another thread.

Do the players get their value back when they cash out DrRich? I've only seen it on video, but Spynx seemed like what you're describing and it was a $5 5 line required slot and don't think it refunds something like the old Star Wars Race game.

I found some of these machines (with the locking wilds that drop down one spot on the reels on each spin) on my last trip to Vegas. I see the appeal. Extremely low variance, almost like finding money on the floor.

I found one at the $1.50 level. There was a wild on the top of reel 3. I played it and after a couple of spins (before the reel 3 wilds were all used) a wild showed up on reel 2, so I played until that one was gone. I played a total of about 7 or 8 spins and I profited about $20. I think all but one spin won something. Not a lot of money, but it took less than a minute of my time.

I would not bother to put money in the machine to check all the reels for the different bet sizes, but if I'm walking by and see one with a wild displayed, I'll certainly put in some money and cash out the wilds (once I have the money in there, I'll take the time to check the reels for all the other bet sizes).

Exactly, they're awesome!

Quote: Mission146

Exactly, they're awesome!

Yeah, thanks for pointing them out. I would not have thought to look at them otherwise (I am pretty sure that they were there during my last trip too, and I didn't notice them)

No problem!

Every time I've tried this play recently I end up with "wins" that are less than the bet, even with the wild reel in one of the first 3 positions.