$500 Slot Loss Rebate Strategy

Greetings!

I have a question regarding a strategy for a $500 same-day slot loss rebate.

Part 1

Due to a $4000+ jackpot earlier this year, my bankroll is in decent shape, and as we approach the end of the year, I am in a position to take more risks.

The first part of my strategy would be to determine whether or not a certain $100 1 Credit machine (or Two Credits with a perfectly graduated payout, betting One Credit) or a $50 Two Credit machine would be applicable.

If so, my strategy would be to either lose $500 at said machine, or stop if I reach such a point where I am ahead $500. This part of the plan is basically set for the purpose of, "Shot-Taking," if the machine is applicable to the Rebate, but being smart enough to walk away even if I only get ahead by 2x-3x bet.

Part 2

This is where the question comes in.

Do you guys think it is better, if I lose the $500, to simply play 5 spins at the better ER $100 machine and walk away with whatever happens, or to play through a $0.25/machine w/perfectly graduated payout at One Credit/Pull, or alternatively, a $1.00/machine w/perfectly graduated payout @ One Credit/Pull with the intention that the ER (over the comparatively longer haul) should bring me closer to the original $500?

My thinking is that I will get a few spins to pursue a Jackpot that I would otherwise never pursue, and even if I hit a, "Decent payout," such as $2000FOR$100, then you're still talking about more than the Top Jackpot on most of the machines I play, and more than the third top payout on all of them. However, if I so much as reach +$500, then there's really no reason to expose myself to any further risk at that point, so I'd probably take a walk.

I guess I'm really just wondering if it is better to shoot at it at a higher ER (since I could theoretically lose the $500 rebate at that point anyway) or whether I should just (if I lose) get as much of the $500 back as I can (speaking in terms of variance + ER) and be happy with, say ~$450 (90% return) and having the opportunity to take a shot at a sick monster jackpot for essentially $50?

It could be possible that machines of a certain denomination are barred from the offer, though, don't know whether or not that is the case.

Rebate terms? 100% on $500 loss?

Quote: dwheatley

Rebate terms? 100% on $500 loss?

Is this unheard of?

My understanding is that Tropicana is currently running $200 100% Rebate, except you get $100 at two different times and I will never be out there.

I believe Wheeling Island Racetrack and Casino ran this promotion for awhile, earlier this year, in fact. I could be wrong, but I think that is what they were doing. This exact thing, at least, that's what the guy told me when he said I didn't qualify. I didn't qualify because I already had a card, don't worry, I didn't lose $500 (or anything) prior to finding out if I qualified! I was hoping that maybe Hollywood Columbus might be running this promo, or something similar, because they have Scioto Downs to compete with.

Quote: dwheatley

Rebate terms? 100% on $500 loss?

Earlier this summer, Riviera was doing a loss rebate of up to $1000. Half on the day you lose it, and half the next month. Not sure if they are still doing this.

My understanding: The value of the promotions is $250 minus the house edge, which is added up each time you spin

If you play one hand of video blackjack at $500, there's an almost 50% chance you either walk away having won $500. If you play $1 per hand, the chance of walking away up $500 is almost nothing

You want to play the highest denomination allowed

Quote: TomG

My understanding: The value of the promotions is $250 minus the house edge, which is added up each time you spin

If you play one hand of video blackjack at $500, there's an almost 50% chance you either walk away having won $500. If you play $1 per hand, the chance of walking away up $500 is almost nothing

You want to play the highest denomination allowed

I understand what you're saying, and I'm going to open up with that, but I'm talking about (if) I actually need the Rebate to kick in. I really have no intention whatsoever of actually losing $500 in one day, basically.

Quote: Mission146

I really have no intention whatsoever of actually losing $500 in one day, basically.

Is your intention something other than to maximize the value of the promotion?

My intention is to either win $500 or more dollars the first time through, or failing that, take the safest possible path back to ($50)-($100) total. It could end up being more than -$100, obviously, or even theoretically still -$500, but you see my point.

That's where variance comes into play, of course. You would have greater ER by sticking with the $100 machine post-rebate, but the variance is nasty. It's not difficult to imagine going back to the machine and losing all five pulls. The smaller the amount bet (even if the ER is lower) the less that you should deviate from that ER given that you have a larger sample size from which to work.

In other words, my intention is to take (at least) five $100 slot pulls for around $100 cash lost at the end of the day, if said initial pulls fail to win.

Quote: Mission146

The smaller the amount bet (even if the ER is lower) the less that you should deviate from that ER given that you have a larger sample size from which to work.

Incorrect. Again, the expected return is $250 minus the house edge which is compounded every spin. At $100 per spin the house edge only cuts into the expected return five times. At 25-cents per spin the house edge cuts into your expected return thousands of times, making it much closer to zero (so in that case, you likely would achieve the expected return)

Though it is somewhat depended on paytable. For state-wide progressive level, more spins at the smaller denomination would give you less variance, but your stated intention is to win $500, not $500 000

Quote: Mission146

In other words, my intention is to take (at least) five $100 slot pulls for around $100 cash lost at the end of the day, if said initial pulls fail to win.

Now I see we are on the same page. Take the $100 spins. Then failing to win, play whatever low denomination has the best paytable. Doubt $1 would have too much more variance than 25-cents given 500 spins compared to 2 000. If they're good machines you'll likely lose a small amount either way. Might even finish up $10 or $20

I think I'd just keep betting a 25¢ or $1 machine full-coin until I was $500 down or $500 up... not more than $2 a spin.

Quote: TomG

Now I see we are on the same page. Take the $100 spins. Then failing to win, play whatever low denomination has the best paytable. Doubt $1 would have too much more variance than 25-cents given 500 spins compared to 2 000. If they're good machines you'll likely lose a small amount either way. Might even finish up $10 or $20

Exactly! That's the idea.

I think I was getting confused because I thought you were suggesting that I take the $100 pulls with the Rebate AND original $500, not just the original, as I intended.

with slot-loss rebates the strategy is to try to lose but hope you win. high denomination and high variance are the most important when trying to lose the money. if you do happen to lose, high return is the most important when collecting on the rebate.

Quote: rudeboyoi

with slot-loss rebates the strategy is to try to lose but hope you win. high denomination and high variance are the most important when trying to lose the money. if you do happen to lose, high return is the most important when collecting on the rebate.

Can I assume you agree with me on minimizing the effect of variance on the ER once the rebate is had, and effectively, agree with my strategy?

Quote: Mission146

Can I assume you agree with me on minimizing the effect of variance on the ER once the rebate is had, and effectively, agree with my strategy?

Depends on how much of a gambler rudeboyoi is. If you don't care about your end result at all, then it should be the highest ER machine you can find, period. If you are looking to guarantee a decent return from your freeplay, then play the lower denomination and eat the ER difference.

When I did a slot/video poker rebate earlier this year, I incurred most of my losses on a dollar VP machine (99.17%). My 4 to a Royal didn't come through obviously and I lost $350. I grinded about 95% of the loss back by playing multiline penny poker, or single line nickels both w/Super Times Pay because I didn't really want to lose hundreds of my own money. The return on these machines were 97.13%, but playing these lower denomination machines guaranteed me a large portion of my money back. Playing the full pay poker machine would have saved me about $7 in ER, but there would be a significant chance I would have lost a good portion of the freeplay if I ran poorly.

I must agree with rudeboy. For a loss rebate, you need high variance, because the loss rebate only kicks in if you are on the negative variance side.
You want to maximize the probability being on the negative variance side while also minimizing expected losses. High variance games with low house edge are the way to go.

However, I don't agree with Tom on the statement that the loss rebate is worth $250 (minus house edge). The $250 figure is correct only for even bets like blackjack or color on roulette. If the variance is much higher (and slot variance is large) the loss rebate is worth much more.

Example: Let's assume a simple slot machine model only paying 90 units on every 100 spins. House edge is whipping 10%, but with loss rebate it is a nice game.
A good strategy could be: play $100 a spin, stop when you hit the win, or lose $500 (so 5 spins max).

Expected results are:

spins	probability	pre rebate	rebate value	post rebate
W	1%	$9000	$0	$9000
LW	0.99%	$8900	$0	$8900
LLW	0.98%	$8800	$0	$8800
LLLW	0.97%	$8700	$0	$8700
LLLLW	0.96%	$8600	$0	$8600
LLLLL	95.1%	-$500	$500	$0
EV	100%	-$44.20	$475.50	$431.30

So the loss rebate for this game - with this strategy - is worth $431.30. However you *must* face the large probability of losing your $500. In fact you would want to maximize the probability of this very unfavourable result. (homework: calculate the loss rebate value for a single spin of $500 and for 50 spins of $10).

Quote: TomG

Incorrect. Again, the expected return is $250 minus the house edge which is compounded every spin. At $100 per spin the house edge only cuts into the expected return five times. At 25-cents per spin the house edge cuts into your expected return thousands of times, making it much closer to zero (so in that case, you likely would achieve the expected return)

Though it is somewhat depended on paytable. For state-wide progressive level, more spins at the smaller denomination would give you less variance, but your stated intention is to win $500, not $500 000

I'm sorry if I misunderstood you here, but as written I disagree. If you spin five times and win 100 each and leave at +500, that is the same as spinning 500 once, winning, and leaving. The issue is that you will most likely lose or push, making it so that you have to put 1000 or 1500 through.

Edit: That is assuming every slot machine in this analogy has the same return.

I just found this thread/forum while researching current promotions for my upcoming vegas trip, thanks OP!

This is quite the promotion, no? Seems like very low risk.
Is the rebate set up ahead of time for 1 single machine/session? (it must be, no?)

-

For the first $500 (cash), you want the highest ER possible.
So $100 denom machines, or $25 TD / WOF ? :-)
If you win > 500-1000, stop, otherwise keep going until big win or total loss.

If total loss (-$500), then exercise loss reimbursement.

For both day2 ($250 FP) and day3 ($250 FP) either again dump into HL machines and hope for the best, or slowly unlock your $ on a low denom VP machine (with small house edge). For the later, after the ER and house edge, you should end up with a conservative ~$400-450 back in cash. As OP stated, you then just basically traded $50-$100 for 5x$100 shots at a HUGE payout.

Does this sound about right?

If I lose the initial $500 cash in 5 spins, it is technically no different than if it takes me 30 spins to lose it all (due to lots of small interspersed wins).
And if I win big with the rebate1 freeplay, that does not affect the rebate2 coming the next day, does it?

When you get your recoup, no matter how much (50-500 I hear), will be in the form of slot play coupons broken up into smaller pieces over the month (As Is here at Hollywood). So in this case it might be best to work your strategy out to the next level before diving in... what to do with these new coups and how to play them too. Just a thought.

Quote: rushdl

When you get your recoup, no matter how much (50-500 I hear), will be in the form of slot play coupons broken up into smaller pieces over the month (As Is here at Hollywood). So in this case it might be best to work your strategy out to the next level before diving in... what to do with these new coups and how to play them too. Just a thought.

It's a joke that you replied to this right?

Just saw a thread about rebates in lv disappearing.... I wonder why

Must be the guy driving a Miata..... Or should I say..... Mission has come a long way since that post -

When you publicly lay out the framework how to "best" exploit a situation and exactly what it's worth (especially on this forum) the casinos sometimes take notice. I assure you some casinos have employees who do get information regularly from this site along with darksiders. I guarantee the darksiders don't come up with everything on their own. Especially guys who are not out making plays.

Sure loss rebates have been talked about before, but the information gets somewhat buried (out of site out of mind). We shouldn't make it easy for casino employees to find it and keep it fresh in their minds. It (including other various promotions) it certainly shouldn't have a featured article written about it.

Claiming it helps AP's take more money from the casinos is a lame argument(IMO it's just a way to wrongly justify doing it). It may help an extra few people, but the over all damage it causes is significantly worst. Most AP's know how to exploit a good situation already. If it's truly about players taking the casinos for as much money as possible. Don't exposed the plays publicly, let AP's do what they do and the amount they take out will dwarf any small benefit exposing it will. I'm not talking about general information

Mission claims to disagree with me on this point, however he's dead wrong.
Mission is smart mathematically along with other things, including being a good writer. But If a majority of his income actually depended on AP, and was playing most of the good situations that came up, I do believe his stance would change dramatically. One good AP situation could make in a month more than most make in a year. I think deep down he knows some stuff shouldn't be written about. But the writer inside him is bursting.

How soon one forgets. Just ask yourself how you felt when the Revel had an AP consultant expose the 100k loss rebate and some of it's weaknesses and how it foiled AP's in various ways?(thank god they didn't know and think about everything) Had that not happened I believe the casino wouldn't have realized their mistake until it was to late. There many people who would've gotten maximum value.

Really what's the difference between someone contacting one casino and explaining everything or someone writing publicly about AP techniques and good promotions for all the casinos to see?

Most aspiring AP's will go the extra mile to search threads, send PM's, get books and find out.
IMO if they are to lazy they to figure it out they don't deserve to know. There are ways to get information without alarming and wising up the casinos.

Talk to just about any successful AP, one who at first didn't get it or didn't see the harm in exposing detailed information publicly, ask them how they now feel about it now.

Again I'm not saying that people shouldn't ever share stories here or talk about Advantage plays ever. I have and I will. But I think there ways you can keep details out but still tell your story. It's fairly easy to figure out what plays and techniques are better off keeping on the down low.

Well written- but it's just like the kid everyone knew in class who just had to bring up the question to the teacher just to prove he was smart- it's not just mission there are a couple others in the site that I do not think could even cut it full time as an ap.
There was a play that was worth 81 dollars an hour with no heat and limited bankroll that went on for 9 months until written about and then it ended the next morning.... I know who wrote about it and I am sure they didn't make more then 300 for writing about it- 1 day playing it and they would have had double the money

Yes its a serious answer to a real world question. I read most of the replies and they went way off base but Ive signed up several people this week and already analyzed the deal they offer and it isn't jack. I get that amount of coupons every month WITHOUT losing anything or signing up. This is as bad as the deals get. They went from front money coupons and free spins , which is exploitable, to "lose it first" which is a great hedge for them. It also looks good on the billboards everywhere.
PLAY $500 ON US!

Yeah I agree with Axe, but you are caught a catch 22 on that one. Only fix is a nice warm cup of shut the h%11 up! (Lol, that's not aimed at anyone, just the general fix per se)
1-Is why I never published my system on here or anywhere else, shes money.
2-Thats why I went to this board in the first place instead of a St Louis, or Hollywood casino/png board. Thank you for letting a Midwest guy hang with you. Your average dipstick is smarter than I.
3-Mike the wizard is so good at google adspace SEO (frickin genius) that he is at the top of nearly every search. Congrats sir!
4-Yes this site is visited and trolled by every conceivable stereotype imo because of 3. And because of the owners rep.
5-3 plus 4 makes axe paranoid :)

You responded to a four year old question by someone that it if you look at the board clearly does not have that question anymore

Quote: Wizardofnothing

You responded to a four year old question by someone that it if you look at the board clearly does not have that question anymore

I think RushDl responded to your response, and Axel's response, to a thread that was re-activated in Nov 2015 and had very recent responses. That's how I read it anyway. 2F

Thread was from 2012 in the four years si cR there was 1 reply, not sure what you read but maybe