tsmith
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August 29th, 2012 at 3:46:05 PM permalink
I hope I'm using the term "wongable" correctly. It means there's a point where it is a good idea to play it to win a large amount, right?

I went to Tunica, Mississippi this week. Last time I was there, in July, I found these new penny machines from WMS Gaming, their G+ Deluxe series, that have minor and major progressive jackpots. The minor jp must pay before it reaches $50 and the major must pay before it reaches $500. The jackpot amounts increase with each win only -- as opposed to something like "Wheel of Fortune" or "Blazing 7s", where each spin contributes to the jackpot amount -- and the jackpots are awarded randomly, after any win. It's also a little different in that it pays right-to-left on certain symbols. I had played the "Kronos" game in July at Resorts and won the minor jp for about $37.

On Monday I had just gotten to town and made my first stop at Bally's. I was down about $80 after an hour and while wandering around I came across a bank of these G+ Deluxe machines. I pushed a couple of 20s into a Kronos machine whose minor jackpot was about $35 and the major was about $350, but I wasn't getting any wins at all so I looked to my left and saw a "Queen of the Wild" machine whose major jackpot amount had flashing lights around it; the amount stood at about $453 and change and the machine was telling everybody the jackpot was ripe for the picking.



I stuck a 20 into the machine and was playing just above the minimum (less than $1) and getting a couple of good little wins here and there and got a nice return on a bonus round, but I was watching the jp amount go up only by 1 or 2 cents with each small win each time. I played for another 10 minutes, stuck another 20 in, and finally said to myself, "Enough of this pussy-footin' around" and boosted my bet up to the max, $2.50.

That next spin got me a whole bunch of King Kong-type ape symbols on the 3 rightmost reels, the ape pictures expanded from just faces into full bodies, the machine exploded into "Super Big Win" music and sounds and over all that I could hear this deep voice coming out of the machine saying, "Major jackpot awarded." Turned out I won $225 for the King Kongs and another $454 for the major jackpot.

I took a picture of the screen with my little Tracfone but I didn't realize cell phones aren't like digital cameras in that they don't automatically save photos, so because I didn't tell the phone to save the picture I lost it, but it sure was pretty while it lasted.


P.S. I know what I said in the other thread, but like FarFromVegas' theory about deserving to hear the music on really big wins, for 680 bucks I let the machine sing and throw coins all over the screen as long as it wanted to. :)
buzzpaff
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August 29th, 2012 at 4:07:00 PM permalink
When I play Wizard of Oz slots. I crank the volume to the max. If you don't like it, go away !
FleaStiff
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August 29th, 2012 at 5:16:07 PM permalink
I thought "Wonging" was a technique of entering a Blackjack game only during high count phases due to the use of team members who play at fairly constant bet amounts and merely signal to the "Big Betting Wonger" to suddenly show up.

Don't think its a term for slot play at all.
bbvk05
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August 29th, 2012 at 5:44:46 PM permalink
I don't think it is abuse of the term 'wonging.'


Wonging in refers to entering a table mid shoe after you count with no money in the game and then the shoe goes positive. You pay no entry fee and get in with a positive EV. Reverse Wonging is leaving when things go south. It does not have to do anything with teams, although I still think it would work.

Here, he sat down at a machine with a potential positive EV due to the guarantees. In some sense that is wonging in on the machine, but I don't think it is the best use of the word.
Hunterhill
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August 29th, 2012 at 5:45:55 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

I thought "Wonging" was a technique of entering a Blackjack game only during high count phases due to the use of team members who play at fairly constant bet amounts and merely signal to the "Big Betting Wonger" to suddenly show up.

Don't think its a term for slot play at all.

Yes the term has also been used for wongable slots,meaning they have an entry point where it is favorable to play.
Happy days are here again
tsmith
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August 29th, 2012 at 5:48:59 PM permalink
Quote:

Here, he sat down at a machine with a potential positive EV due to the guarantees.



Make that "SHE sat down at a machine ..." :)


I neglected to mention that the random jackpots can be awarded after any winning spin while playing any amount; you do not have to be betting max to be eligible.
Mission146
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August 29th, 2012 at 6:29:46 PM permalink
TSmith,

1.) Your strategy in playing only when the Jackpot amount was close to the guaranteed amount of $500 was definitely correct. It makes you no more likely to hit the Jackpot, (unless you actually get to $500, obviously) in any given spin, but the amount certainly increases your ER.

2.) The thing about that is that even at a Jackpot of $454.xx, you had $40 in the machine at that time and it started at $453.xx. You said that the machine increases are win based, so best case scenario, a $225 hit increased the Max Progressive by about $1.00, could be less, could be more, less than $1.99, anyway. It would have been excellent if you had written down the exact amounts after each win and the exact amount you got from the Major Progressive, because then we would know exactly how much a $225 win increases the Progressive by and could have determined what percentage of every win goes to a Progressive...unless it is on a graduated scale...but that would be easy to figure out by determining how the Progressive responds to smaller wins.

-If the Progressive responds to smaller wins the same way (in terms of percentages), then based upon the ER of the base game, (lacking PAR Sheets, which only the casino will have, I like to guess about 90% because it is mathematically easy and usually a slight underestimate) and the knowledge that x% of a win feeds the Progressive, you would then know how much money you would have to put in, assuming the ER% is met, to guarantee the Progressive.

-If nothing else, if we can determine that the same % of every win feeds the Progressive, you would at least know how much you have to win to hit the Progressive.

3.) While you were playing in a fashion that improved your ER (and definitely correctly for that machine) that does not necessarily mean that you were playing at a +ER. The reason that +ER can occasionally be had on a Progressive machine is because Progressive machines are typically uncapped, and as a result, when the Progressive result doesn't hit as much as it probabilistically should, you can end up with a Progressive amount that puts you at over 100% ER on each individual spin.

-In this case, however, the Progressive payouts are capped, and it is theoretically possible that a spin at $49x.xx could still have a negative ER by virtue that the possibility of the $49x.xx + the Base Pays still don't give you +100% ER on each pull. Obviously, if it were $499.99, then you would have that because you'd essentially need to hit for anything once.
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Mission146
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August 29th, 2012 at 6:38:59 PM permalink
Quote: tsmith



Make that "SHE sat down at a machine ..." :)

I neglected to mention that the random jackpots can be awarded after any winning spin while playing any amount; you do not have to be betting max to be eligible.



I'm still going to be going with the assumption that every win increases the Progressive by a certain percentage.

I would love to have the PAR Sheets for this one, but if I had to guess, I would say that an RNG determines the Progressive amount that must be attained in order for the Progressive to be paid, so it's not truly random. I would suggest that when a Progressive is hit, the RNG assigns a new, "Goal," which could be $464.25 or $387.12, or whatever.

In this event, you are better off Max Betting simply because your wins (while they may or may not be equal in terms of Payout x Amount Played, but probably are) are going to add to the Progressive faster simply because you are winning more. This is especially true if it is based on a percentage of the amount won.

Furthermore, the percentage increase v. amount won could be lower if you are not Max Betting. If this is the case, then you are better off Max Betting if the amount needed for the Progressive is not truly random because a larger % of a win will go to the Progressive. This is what I suspect and will try to demonstrate if I ever see one of these machines.

***In support of my theory that the Major Jackpot total needed to hit the Progressive is decided by the machine (and is not truly random) I present that you must have a WINNING spin in order to win the Progressive. Why should that be? If the Progressive were truly awarded randomly, then why could the Progressive not come on any spin as opposed to a winning spin?

My theory is because the winning spin put you at/over the point that the RNG decided that the Progressive would be paid.

Congratulations on the nice win, by the way.
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kulin
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August 29th, 2012 at 6:42:35 PM permalink
Mission146, so does the fact that you only win the jackpot if you also win a regular pull keep it from being illegal?
Mission146
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August 29th, 2012 at 6:45:34 PM permalink
Quote: kulin

Mission146, so does the fact that you only win the jackpot if you also win a regular pull keep it from being illegal?



I don't understand the question. There are quite a few machines out there that will award something along the lines of Free Games seemingly at random and even on a losing spin. The, "American Idol Audition Bonus," is an example of one such machine.
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kulin
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August 29th, 2012 at 6:47:44 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I don't understand the question.



I was under the assumption that the result of a slot machine cannot be decided ahead of time. The next result must be random.
Mission146
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August 29th, 2012 at 6:53:15 PM permalink
Quote: kulin

I was under the assumption that the result of a slot machine cannot be decided ahead of time. The next result must be random.



The result would still be random even if it were not the case that it happened only on a winning spin. You could simply have a seperate RNG in there that selects a number that the player does not see, for instance, if the number "2," was a winner and there were numbers from 1-500.

The emphasis with this one seems to be that it can only happen on a win, so I'm inclined to believe that the machine has a RNG that selects a new total that must be met everytime the Jackpot is hit. That amount was still chosen randomly.
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tsmith
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August 29th, 2012 at 6:53:37 PM permalink
Since the jackpot was awarded at the exact same time as the win for the spin I can't tell you how much the win increased the progressive amount.

But I can tell you that I noticed that small wins of less than $1 didn't increase the pot every time. Sometimes it would take two small wins for the progressive amount to go up by .01, and I think both the minor and major pots went up at the same time for the same amount, but don't quote me on it.

These are fairly new machines and this is only the 2nd time I've played them so I haven't noticed a whole lot about the way they work.

When I won the minor jackpot it was only about $37, not what you'd call close to the $50 limit at all, I was betting either right at or just above the minimum, and it was awarded after a small win of less than $3 as I recall, so do you think that means the two jackpots work differently?
Mission146
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August 29th, 2012 at 7:08:48 PM permalink
Quote: tsmith

Since the jackpot was awarded at the exact same time as the win for the spin I can't tell you how much the win increased the progressive amount.



You would be able to do exactly that by looking at the payout table (based on the win) and determining the exact amount of the win for the spin on the base game. You would then subtract the total amount won by that amount, which would give you your Progressive win. You would then subtract the Progressive amount from prior to the spin from the Progressive amount won and that would tell you how much your win increased the Progressive amount.

Quote:

But I can tell you that I noticed that small wins of less than $1 didn't increase the pot every time. Sometimes it would take two small wins for the progressive amount to go up by .01, and I think both the minor and major pots went up at the same time for the same amount, but don't quote me on it.



The latter part could very well be the case. It would take wins of at least $1.00 (and possibly more than that if the increase is less than 1% of the win) to determine the percentage of the increase...and that's assuming that it is not graduated. A win such as $5.00 compared to a win such as $25.00 would probably be sufficient in deciding this.

Quote:

These are fairly new machines and this is only the 2nd time I've played them so I haven't noticed a whole lot about the way they work.



I have not yet seen these machines. If I do, and can figure it out at a reasonable price, AND get in when the Progressive is fairly close to that $500 mark, I will try to figure it out. If I get in close to the $500 mark, hit it, but have not yet figured out the percentage, I would move to a different machine to continue my efforts.

Quote:

When I won the minor jackpot it was only about $37, not what you'd call close to the $50 limit at all, I was betting either right at or just above the minimum, and it was awarded after a small win of less than $3 as I recall, so do you think that means the two jackpots work differently?



If you are correct in your assertion that they may have went up at the same time for the same amount, you were much closer to hitting the $50 limit than you were to hitting the $500 limit.

I would be surprised if they work differently, but don't know for sure. If you believe that they went up by the same amount at the same time, my guess is that the RNG just selected $37.xx for the Minor Jackpot to hit at that time.
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tsmith
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August 29th, 2012 at 7:41:08 PM permalink
I think I'm understanding what you're saying, Mission146, about the RNG picking a random amount for the two jackpots, and when that amount is surpassed the prize is awarded and a new amount is picked. In that case then, you can never truly be in a + or - ER situation can you, because you never know which amount the RNG has picked? I mean, it could be that the minor jackpot is meant to be awarded at $27.89 and the major at $349.78, right?

So if this is the case, these are not truly wongable games, are they? Unless the progressives are so close to the top amounts that it's impossible not to win at least one of them, there really is no "best time" to play them, right?
Mission146
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August 29th, 2012 at 8:32:29 PM permalink
Quote: tsmith

I think I'm understanding what you're saying, Mission146, about the RNG picking a random amount for the two jackpots, and when that amount is surpassed the prize is awarded and a new amount is picked. In that case then, you can never truly be in a + or - ER situation can you, because you never know which amount the RNG has picked? I mean, it could be that the minor jackpot is meant to be awarded at $27.89 and the major at $349.78, right?



The last part is a question for which I would have to have the PAR Sheets to know. That is, however, what I suspect.

For instance, the ER on a $500.00 Major for which the counter is up to $499.99 could be exactly 100%, it could theoretically still be less (it's not), but it is probably more. You must still win the spin, of course, at some point.

However, the ER can change based on what the Jackpots are because the Jackpots factor into the ER for every individual spin. Regardless of what the machine has decided the amount to be, the higher the Jackpot, the higher your ER because hitting for one of the Jackpots remains a possibility.

***The one thing that I can tell you is that you definitely WOULD BE putting yourself at a disadvantage by not Max betting. This could be for one of three reasons:

1.) The payouts-per-result, expressed as a percentage of the amount bet (i.e. Paytable) is more generous when you Max Bet on the base game. In other words, if result A pays $50 on a $1.00 bet and pays x > $125 on a $2.50 bet, then Max Betting gives you a better ER.

If the Line Pays remain the same in relation to the amount bet, and there is no bonus for getting a result on x line which can only be played with a Max Bet, then either:

2.) The Max Bet increases the percentage of every win that goes into the Jackpot by the amount greater than that had by the a win on a lower bet, alternatively, the amount added to the Progressive (expressed as a percentage) could be graduated based on the overall amount won, in which event you would add more to the Progressive by hitting a result say, over $5.00, you're going to have more such results Max betting.:

Or:

3.) The Jackpots are actually controlled by a separate RNG that does NOT determine a new amount after a Jackpot is hit. In this event, if, "2," is the result needed on the RNG after a win for the Jackpot to be had, then, for an increased bet, more numbers on the RNG might be replaced with, "2," thereby making the jackpot more likely.

Here's something to consider

For the purposes of this next statement, let's assume that none of the above are the case. In that event, the Paytable does not improve for a Max Bet AND percentage-wise, the amount that goes into the jackpot is an equal percentage of every win, AND the percentage of a win added to the jackpot is not influenced by the minimum amount won, AND Max betting makes the jackpot no more likely, if random.

It would be the best play to bet the Minimum.

Why?

Let's assume that you have $100.00 with which you can play the machine. If the paytable, percentage into the jackpot, liklihood of hitting the jackpot AND overall amount won on a spin have no influence over the Jackpot amount and do not increase the liklihood that you will hit it:

Betting the minimum simply gives you more wins. Mo' spins = Mo' wins. If the -ER of the base game is the same regardless of how much you are betting, then $100 would simply guarantee you a minimum of 25 spins at $2.50 per, while you get a minimum of 200 spins at $0.50/per. However, at a constant ER, you are going to cycle through that $100.00 more times betting the minimum.

You must have a winning result to get the jackpot. The more bets you make, the more winning results you will have, ergo, the less you bet per spin, the more winning spins you will have based upon a fixed amount of money.

This CAN'T happen, nobody would ever design a machine this way. Nobody would give you better ER for betting the Minimum.

Hence, there must be some advantage to Max Betting. I am going to guess that the percentage paid of a win into the Progressive is greater for a Max Bet. That's assuming the paytable ER is the same regardless of the amount of the bet. If the percentage of a win paid into the Progressive is greater, then you will reach the pre-determined amount more quickly.

Quote:

So if this is the case, these are not truly wongable games, are they? Unless the progressives are so close to the top amounts that it's impossible not to win at least one of them, there really is no "best time" to play them, right?



1.) It's always possible to not win at least one of them. You could theoretically go through $100 with 0 winning results. I know that you know that, but felt that it needed to be pointed out for any lurkers of the Forum! In fact, unless the Hit Rate is designed to be over 50%, (you can do this and still have -ER, the Hit Rate of some QuickHits machines is over 70%!!!) then you are expected to lose any given spin. The machine does not care if you have lost nine in a row, it makes you no more likely to win the tenth.

2.) They may be wongable, or they may not be. You'd really have to have the PAR Sheets to know. I could not tell you at what point you are betting at +ER, but you certainly would be at $499.99.

Bally Technologies has since taken it down, but they used to have the probabilities posted for each result of 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 QuickHits on their website. Just knowing this, and assuming a base ER of 90% would give one the ability to use that information and determine if one was spinning at a positive ER.

The only one I believe I recall is that Five QuickHits was 1:198. The Max Bet on that particular machine was $1.50, so the base ER of the bet would be $1.35.

1/198 = .0050505~

The base pay (assume you hit it twice in a row) was $15.00, which was the starting amount for the Progressive. We want to be at an extra $0.15 to achieve an ER% of 100%.

.0050505 * x = $0.15

x = $0.15/.0050505

x = $29.70

Thus, if the Progressive for that specific result reached $44.70, or better, you were spinning with 100%+ ER.

That almost never happened, by the way, it may never have happened. I certainly did not see that. However, there were combinations of the QuickHits Progressive results that would occasionally result in +EV. These involved the top two Progressives, predominantly, two/three times I saw it happen, but you might as well take a shot at 100%+ER. The Natural Royal Flush is part of the Paytable in Deuces Wild, isn't it?

The other time that it happened it was a combination of the Five/Six/Eight QuickHits Progressives. The Five QuickHits was over $27.00, which is the highest I have ever seen it. I have no idea how the Hell it happened, but it happened.

3.) I'm sorry I didn't answer your question before this:

-The best time to play them is when they are at $499.99!!!

-In all seriousness, since you will probably never see that, there are better times to play them than others. If it is an amount determined immediately after the last Major Jackpot payout, then if the amount is $478.89, not only do you have better ER than if it were at $419.12, but it also means that the maximum amount you would have to feed the Progressive is $21.11 as opposed to $80.88. Furthermore, the RNG could have only selected a decimal between $478.89-$500.00 as opposed to $419.12-$500.00, so you are, in fact, more likely to hit the Progressive when the amount is higher. There are less potential amounts for the RNG to be at.

-If you like the machine, just make sure you take the highest paying Major/Minor Jackpot machine available every time. The worst you will do is make your ER better. In fact, if they increase by the same percentage of a win for every win, you may be better off to take the one with the best Minor Jackpot, in some cases. You obviously can't know, but there is less of a difference between $47.83 and $50.00 than there is between $316.67 and $500.00.

It would be the one time the Major on the machine you didn't take was set for $316.68 and the Minor on yours for $49.99....lol!!! I'm kidding, of course, at least, I hope I am. It would be a miserable experience not to choose that machine, though you were probably making the right move.
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buzzpaff
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August 29th, 2012 at 8:36:35 PM permalink
I gave up on educating slot players a long long time ago.

Still see them playing $5 machine with stand alone jackpot of $22,000 while exact same machine with jackpot of $47,00 stands empty.

Even see VP players play 8/5 while 9/6 is on back side of same carousel.

They are sheep, born to be sheared .
Mission146
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August 29th, 2012 at 9:00:40 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

I gave up on educating slot players a long long time ago.

Still see them playing $5 machine with stand alone jackpot of $22,000 while exact same machine with jackpot of $47,00 stands empty.

Even see VP players play 8/5 while 9/6 is on back side of same carousel.

They are sheep, born to be sheared .



TSmith understands the Progressives very well.

With respect to other slot players, I can't give up on them. I'm cut from the same cloth, love the Slots. They may not listen, but I have to at least try to tell them. I usually get, "This machine's Progressive isn't even half as much, that means it's more likely to hit." I still can't give up on them completely, though.

Slots can be a really good time if you understand them.
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tringlomane
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August 29th, 2012 at 9:37:01 PM permalink
As far as these machines are concerned, there are two key ways the jackpots vary with these type of machines, imo. The probability of hitting the jackpots increase the closer you get to the jackpot cap OR the rate of jackpot increase decreases the closer you get to the jackpot cap. I hope for the former, but I would bet on the latter. So I'm pretty sure you weren't playing a +EV slot.

And as Mission said, I would love to see the PAR sheet details.

And Bally's Tunica? Bleh. The only thing nice about that place is they have the best Super Times Pay Poker in town (99.19% for 6 quarter bet on DW). If you want the trashy casino look, go to Tunica Roadhouse instead, at least they have 99.96% APDW/DDB for quarters. And their hotel rooms have whirlpools in them. :)
Mission146
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August 29th, 2012 at 9:50:59 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

As far as these machines are concerned, there are two key ways the jackpots vary with these type of machines, imo. The probability of hitting the jackpots increase the closer you get to the jackpot cap OR the rate of jackpot increase decreases the closer you get to the jackpot cap. I hope for the former, but I would bet on the latter. So I'm pretty sure you weren't playing a +EV slot.



I never considered the latter. Don't you think people would catch on to that, though? It would be EXTREMELY easy to figure out. There's no way I would ever play the machine again if that were the case.
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tringlomane
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August 29th, 2012 at 10:53:21 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I never considered the latter. Don't you think people would catch on to that, though? It would be EXTREMELY easy to figure out. There's no way I would ever play the machine again if that were the case.



I'm not much of a slot player, but I am aware of these machines, and I have never seen a major jackpot near the $500 cap either. Honestly, I don't recall seeing any of these machines ever being above $400. So I'm assuming the probability of it getting above $499 is near zero.

And would it be THAT easy to figure out the meter gradually slows as it approaches $500? The people that actually would pay close enough attention to prove things like that are 99.99% likely to not play a slot machine longterm, because they should know penny slots play roughly 88% payback in many jurisdictions AND that jackpots are never set to return more than 1% of the total return (more often 0.1-0.2%). That being said, I still occasionally play penny slots, but it sure as hell not for the maximum bet. The smaller the bet, the better for me! My bigger gambles are left for 99+% VP or live poker. :)
Mission146
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August 29th, 2012 at 11:08:49 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

I'm not much of a slot player, but I am aware of these machines, and I have never seen a major jackpot near the $500 cap either. Honestly, I don't recall seeing any of these machines ever being above $400. So I'm assuming the probability of it getting above $499 is near zero.

And would it be THAT easy to figure out the meter gradually slows as it approaches $500? The people that actually would pay close enough attention to prove things like that are 99.99% likely to not play a slot machine longterm, because they should know penny slots play roughly 88% payback in many jurisdictions AND that jackpots are never set to return more than 1% of the total return (more often 0.1-0.2%). That being said, I still occasionally play penny slots, but it sure as hell not for the maximum bet. The smaller the bet, the better for me! My bigger gambles are left for 99+% VP or live poker. :)



It would be easy to figure out, you would just have to play on a machine that is closer to the jackpot compared to one that is not and see how the Progressive responds to wins on a percentage basis. It would have to drop pretty dramatically at a certain point for there not to be a difference between a machine with a Major Jackpot at $312.24 and one at $425.66. You may have to go to the casino and look for the higher one more than once, but the experiment itself would be easy.

I pay close enough attention to prove things like that, and I love slots! I know how to play VP, but I think it's boring. I'm good at Limit Hold 'Em, which is also boring, and I don't like to win people's money except when my bankroll needs improvement. I do enjoy No Limit Tournaments, but I'm rarely available during those times. I've won more than I've lost to Tournaments, but it's close.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
FarFromVegas
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August 30th, 2012 at 4:33:57 AM permalink
Ooooh! I know what I'm going to look for next week--one of these guys with a meter over $400! Thanks for the heads up, and congratulations!
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts. Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
tsmith
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August 30th, 2012 at 5:11:02 AM permalink
FarFromVegas - Thanks and good luck! These machines are fun but can be stingy and go thru long dry spells. Stick with 'em and don't forget that a couple of those minor jackpots can add up nicely too. Just make sure you let it sing loud and proud when you hit that major!

Mission146 - Thank you for all that information. I have to admit that some of it was over my head but I think I understood the gist of what you were saying. I enjoy slots more when I know a little bit more about the way they work and "think".


I too love slots. I like the idea of it being just me against the machine. I used to play blackjack and even did a bit of counting but as I've gotten older I've developed a dislike for sitting at a table with other people where they all tell you what to do and criticize your play even tho you're playing perfect strategy, and counting was too much like work. I dabbled in craps for a while but the game was too fast for me and I didn't like the sudden-ness of having all my bets swiped away just like that on a 7-out. I don't like VP for some reason but I can't tell you why, I just don't care for it. I like 3 Card Poker but haven't played it in a long time.
1BB
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August 30th, 2012 at 6:20:14 AM permalink
There are other people at the table?

I can't take credit for that one. Counters have been saying it for years.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
LonesomeGambler
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August 30th, 2012 at 9:16:07 AM permalink
Before everyone goes shredding twenties on these machines: yes, they are +EV at a certain point, and no, it is not $400. Nor is it necessarily $453 (it almost certainly isn't, in the vast majority of cases). Same goes for the similar machines that feature a meter-increase based on coin-in; the amount of the jackpot generally needs to be VERY high for it to be +EV. High enough that you rarely see a worthwhile opportunity.
FarFromVegas
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August 30th, 2012 at 9:22:28 AM permalink
Quote: LonesomeGambler

Before everyone goes shredding twenties on these machines: yes, they are +EV at a certain point, and no, it is not $400. Nor is it necessarily $453 (it almost certainly isn't, in the vast majority of cases). Same goes for the similar machines that feature a meter-increase based on coin-in; the amount of the jackpot generally needs to be VERY high for it to be +EV. High enough that you rarely see a worthwhile opportunity.



I'm not expecting +EV, but now that I know how they work I know it's better to pick one over $400 vs one just starting out on the meter. I've never looked at them before, so this was good info on how to pick one out. I'm also going to try the Aristocrat ones she's mentioned before. It's just fellow slot players giving each other a head's up on fun games that may just win!
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts. Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
tringlomane
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August 30th, 2012 at 10:33:52 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I pay close enough attention to prove things like that, and I love slots!



You're one of the few slot players that could. And based on coin-in, or win amounts, you're right, it wouldn't be too hard. If it was some other metric altering the progressive, then it may be more difficult. But by default, I always assumed progressives increased based on coin-in.


Quote: LonesomeGambler

Before everyone goes shredding twenties on these machines: yes, they are +EV at a certain point, and no, it is not $400. Nor is it necessarily $453 (it almost certainly isn't, in the vast majority of cases). Same goes for the similar machines that feature a meter-increase based on coin-in; the amount of the jackpot generally needs to be VERY high for it to be +EV. High enough that you rarely see a worthwhile opportunity.



They would only be +EV if the jackpot probability ramps up significantly when the meter approaches the cap. I proposed that the meter could just simply slow down to never be able to reach the cap (I really don't know what it does). But if that is actually what happens, then the machine would never be +EV.
tsmith
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August 30th, 2012 at 11:03:48 AM permalink
Quote:

But by default, I always assumed progressives increased based on coin-in.



On every other progressive I've ever seen the jackpot amount is increased by coin-in, but these are different. Not only do you not have to have a special winning combination of symbols -- 3 Wheel of Fortune or Blazing 7s symbols, for instance -- but only winning spin results add anything to the progressive amount. Whether that makes them better or worse than other progressives I don't know, but it's a fun difference for the player.
tringlomane
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August 30th, 2012 at 12:20:34 PM permalink
Yeah, if certain types wins affect the meter differently, it will be a much bigger pain in the butt to truly verify the overall speed of the meter. Best idea would be:

1) pick a certain win type
2) see how much the jackpot meter increases over ~10 of these wins.
3) repeat step 2 at a significantly different jackpot level ($100 or more would be best)

If results of 2 and 3 aren't within a penny or two of each other, then the meter increase isn't too likely to be constant.
Mission146
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August 30th, 2012 at 2:35:17 PM permalink
You're welcome, TSmith. If you have any questions, feel free to ask!

Quote: tringlomane

You're one of the few slot players that could. And based on coin-in, or win amounts, you're right, it wouldn't be too hard. If it was some other metric altering the progressive, then it may be more difficult. But by default, I always assumed progressives increased based on coin-in.



I would say that it is based on coin-in nearly 99% of the time. These are different, though, and I have already externally verified TSmith's correctness (last night) about the fact that they only increase on a win, and that is 100% accurate.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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August 30th, 2012 at 6:24:07 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Yeah, if certain types wins affect the meter differently, it will be a much bigger pain in the butt to truly verify the overall speed of the meter. Best idea would be:

1) pick a certain win type
2) see how much the jackpot meter increases over ~10 of these wins.
3) repeat step 2 at a significantly different jackpot level ($100 or more would be best)

If results of 2 and 3 aren't within a penny or two of each other, then the meter increase isn't too likely to be constant.



The first thing you have to verify is same-machine consistency. Which is just making sure that if a $5.00 win feeds $0.05 into the Progressive that a $25.00 win feeds $0.25.

If not, go to higher machine and see how it responds to $5.00 vs. $25.00, is the percentage for each win (or something close) the same as it was on each for the previous machine? If yes, then chances are there is no dramatic dropoff.

If so, your step 2, but you'd only need one win of a substantially similar amount to be able to tell. Maybe you'd go two-three wins of a similar amount for verification purposes, but 10 wouldn't be necessary.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
buzzpaff
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August 30th, 2012 at 9:07:20 PM permalink
" I don't think it is abuse of the term 'wonging.' "

Stanford Wong, best promoter since P T BARNUM. Back counting was in Thorpe's Beat the dealer.
pacomartin
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August 30th, 2012 at 11:31:21 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

" I don't think it is abuse of the term 'wonging.' "

Stanford Wong, best promoter since P T BARNUM. Back counting was in Thorpe's Beat the dealer.



Even in theoretical statistics one very valuable technique that I saw was to name a technique after yourself. The eggheads are complaining that the technique was known to the ancient Greeks, but the self promoter can still become famous.

"Stanford Wong" name is really John Ferguson. Even his name was a sales pitch. For that matter Thorpe did not invent card counting or basic strategy. He more or less put it on a rigid mathematical basis.

It is one thing to say "split 8's against a dealer 10", it is another thing to actually work out the EV's

EV with Infinite Deck
-0.4807 split
-0.5398 hit
-0.5404 stand

EV with Single Deck, Dealer Stands on Soft 17
-0.446436 split when DAS-Is permitted
-0.457453 split when DAS-Not permitted
-0.511755 hit
-0.518291 stand
LonesomeGambler
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August 31st, 2012 at 8:35:08 AM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

" I don't think it is abuse of the term 'wonging.' "

Stanford Wong, best promoter since P T BARNUM. Back counting was in Thorpe's Beat the dealer.

Wong also did not coin the term "wonging."
Hunterhill
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August 31st, 2012 at 2:27:02 PM permalink
Quote: LonesomeGambler

Wong also did not coin the term "wonging."

Who did?
Happy days are here again
1BB
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August 31st, 2012 at 2:37:50 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

Who did?



I don't think any one person gets credit for it. People just started saying it.

Who gets the credit for ploppy? Come on Speed Counters you should know this one.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Ibeatyouraces
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August 31st, 2012 at 2:55:44 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
1BB
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August 31st, 2012 at 2:57:24 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I thought it was Don S.



It was Frank S.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Ibeatyouraces
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August 31st, 2012 at 3:14:58 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
buzzpaff
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August 31st, 2012 at 4:27:32 PM permalink
Quote: LonesomeGambler

Wong also did not coin the term "wonging."




Next you will be telling me he is not Caucasian . LOL
rubixxcube
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August 31st, 2012 at 8:44:00 PM permalink
These machines are all over the casinos in South Florida and I have played them quite a bit. I have hit the minors multiple times, the lowest being 32.XX all the way up to $48.xx. I have seen it hit as low as 27.00. I have never hit the major but have seen it it only once and it was for $275.

I almost think that your theory is right that when the JP hits it "picks" the next one randomly and waits for the meter to roll over that number, the only other way i could see them guaranteeing it would be for example,on the JP hit it picks a random number from 1-2500, lets say it chooses 1345 for this turn. The Minor starts at 25.00 and goes up to 50.00, each time the meter goes up .01 it pulls a number from from 1-2500 for each .01 the meter moves, if it picks 1345 you win the JP, if not the number it picked is removed from the number sequences.

My usual casino has tons of these machines, they seem to be quite popular.
It has been mentioned already, but I never understand someone playing one of these machines on an empty bank and their machine has a minor JP of like $30 and a Major JP of $350, and the machine next to them is at $40 and $450.
I tend to poach these machines, I usually only play them when a JP is "Close" to hitting, and see many others doing this. I know I don't have an advantage, nor do I think I am ahead doing this, but I don't think it's disputable that the higher the JP the better the odds.

My observations.
-The more you win on a spin the more the JP increases, not sure what it is but wins seem to need to cross some threshold to even move the Major JP at all, absolute dollar wise not bet ratio wise. So a $5 win betting .40 or betting $4 i think affects the JP's the same, but clearly betting more produces higher wins.
-I once saw a woman betting the minimum drop well over $100 on a Minor that was at $48.00 when i sat down and she didn't hit it. The higher the JP's get the slower it seems to move, not sure if true but that is how it feels.
-Some of the machines have bets from .50-$2.50 and another group they range from .40-4.00.
-I have seen people drop $200 trying to hit a ~$50 JP. When the JP is close to $50, i never put more than $45 trying to hit it.
-This creates a bit of a conundrum, if the minor JP is at $48.00 it seems to me better to bet the minimum because you can grind the machine longer trying to hit it and come out a head, betting $4 has a higher probability of generating a win to move the JP up to hit it but you will lose the $50 really quickly.

Since I come in contact with these machines fairly often let me know what kind of data you need and i will do my best to provide it.
Not sure if the casino would have a problem if i took notes or not....
rubixxcube
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August 31st, 2012 at 8:51:29 PM permalink
Just wanted to add the creator of these machines is a genius as people don't want to "give" away their JP's. All the time I see a person play one of the machines, go bust and look up at the JP and their face basically says, "Damn I'm so close, I don't want to lose more money but I don't want to get up and have someone else win "my" jackpot" and they either pump more money into the machine or they call all their friends and get tons of other people to pump money into their machine.
Mission146
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August 31st, 2012 at 10:07:44 PM permalink
Quote: rubixxcube



1.) I tend to poach these machines, I usually only play them when a JP is "Close" to hitting, and see many others doing this. I know I don't have an advantage, nor do I think I am ahead doing this, but I don't think it's disputable that the higher the JP the better the odds.

My observations.
2.) -The more you win on a spin the more the JP increases, not sure what it is but wins seem to need to cross some threshold to even move the Major JP at all, absolute dollar wise not bet ratio wise. So a $5 win betting .40 or betting $4 i think affects the JP's the same, but clearly betting more produces higher wins.
3.) -I once saw a woman betting the minimum drop well over $100 on a Minor that was at $48.00 when i sat down and she didn't hit it. The higher the JP's get the slower it seems to move, not sure if true but that is how it feels.
4.) -Some of the machines have bets from .50-$2.50 and another group they range from .40-4.00.
5.) -I have seen people drop $200 trying to hit a ~$50 JP. When the JP is close to $50, i never put more than $45 trying to hit it.
6.) -This creates a bit of a conundrum, if the minor JP is at $48.00 it seems to me better to bet the minimum because you can grind the machine longer trying to hit it and come out a head, betting $4 has a higher probability of generating a win to move the JP up to hit it but you will lose the $50 really quickly.

7.) Since I come in contact with these machines fairly often let me know what kind of data you need and i will do my best to provide it.
Not sure if the casino would have a problem if i took notes or not....



1.) The odds of hitting the jackpot may or may not be better. Your ER is better, in case you do. If the machine selects a total randomly, then your odds are theoretically better because there is less of a, "Distance," between yourself and the jackpot the higher the amount stands. If the machine selects from random numbers on a win and the pre-designated number hits the Jackpot, then your actual odds do not get any better or worse, but the EV is still there. I tend to doubt this, again, because minimum betting would then be favored, unless there are more, "Winning Numbers," the more you bet.

If it is the latter, then $500.00 probably just automatically wins. That's how they guarantee a JP by then.

2.) This is expected. We are not interested in the dollar value of the increase in and of itself, but rather, the percentage increase. You have stated that x amount win moves it in the same fashion. Thus, you are better off Max Betting in any scenario. Why? If the ER on the base game is the same regardless of how you bet, then Max Betting gets you to the Jackpot faster with wins that are inconsequential (x FOR 1 wise) in comparison to the amount bet. If you win $4.00 betting $0.40, that's 10FOR1, if you win $4.00 betting $2.00, that's 2FOR1. If a 2FOR1 shot will move the jackpot just as readily as a 10FOR1 shot, then you should go for higher $$$ wins, which entails max betting, rather than # of wins which would be maximized by minimum betting. You will reach the pre-determined amount faster.

If the amount is not pre-determined, you will still arrive at the guaranteed $500 faster, Max Betting.

3.) It would always feel that way due to anticipation. It is important to determine whether or not it is that way.

4.) The $0.40-$4.00 would likely have better ER.

5.) You should Max Bet, in all probability. Other than that, do what you like with bankroll management as it has no effect on your ER. It seems you only want to hit the Minor if it will cause you to profit. There are other profitable outcomes, not least of which is the major. If you wish to continue playing the machine, you should, if you wish to move on to a different game, then do so. You should always move once you have reset the JP, of course.

6.) I will say this: Nobody would EVER design a machine where betting the minimum gives you any advantage whatsoever. The best that you can do is find a machine with what I term, "Perfectly Graduated Payouts," by which betting the Minimum/Maximum, or anything in between has 0 effect on ER. This is a Progressive. There is ALWAYS a benefit Max Betting. In most cases, that is the only way to hit the Progressive. In this case, it is not immediately apparent, but there will be better ER Max Betting, one way or another.

If you believe my theory may be correct, then you must Max Bet because more results will increase the JP and eventually put you at that pre-determined point. If you suggest that you subscribe to my theory and then bet the minimum, then you do not subscribe to my theory. The manner in which you have suggested betting will lose you the $50 more slowly, but at a worse ER.

7.) The casino would not have a problem with you taking notes. The purposes of you doing so would be information-sharing, so unfortunately, I would not be willing to compensate you for your efforts for something that I can do myself. In fact, I intend to do this myself if I happen upon such machines at a nearby casino. If I do not happen upon such machines, however, I may be interested in instructing you as to what needs to be done if you are interested in doing that and play the machines anyway. Feel free to send me a PM, if so.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
redbeard73
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August 31st, 2012 at 11:08:19 PM permalink
I do not wish to derail this thread with my very first post so if the moderators feel that it does not pertain to the information here please feel free to use it to start another thread or whatever you believe to be appropriate.

I live in Las Vegas and have seen a number of machines similar to the one spoken of in this thread. The machine spoken of in this thread I believe is the WMS (Williams) G+ Delux machine. The minor jackpot starts at $25 and must be awarded at or before reaching $50. The major jackpot starts at $250 and must be awarded at or before hitting $500. The minimum bet is 1 penny on 1 line. To move the Major and Minor jackpots for the WMS G+Delux machine you have to hit some "big win". IT DOES NOT MOVE AFTER A CERTAIN NUMBER OF SPINS (which I will discuss in the other brands of machines later). It took me over 200 spins just to get the minor jackpot to move 1 penny betting the minimum on the WMS G+Delux machine. Obviously, one trial does not make this official, but I pretty quickly concluded that the "randomness" of the increased jackpot based solely on big wins is going to make finding the break-even line very difficult on this brand and type of machine. Which brings me to the many other machines I wanted to discuss and get opinions on here:

First up is the Ainsworth machine (these have different games on various machines that include Glitter Gems, Roaming Reels, 50 Dolphins, Mustang Money, etc.). These machines have a minimum bet of 25 cents. The Minor jackpots start at $20 and pay by $50. The Major jackpost start at $350 and pay by $400. I played a number of spins at the minimum bet and 4 spins always appeared to move the Minor jackpots 1 penny and 11 spins moved the Major jackpot 1 penny. {I think figuring out the break-even threshold for these machines would be simple if one could find the average payback for each machine over time.}

Next up are the Konami brand machines which are called Quick Strike or Scattereels. (The game names are Sands of Marrakesh, Arabian Magic, Capricorn Mountain, etc.) These machines have a 30 cent minimum. The Minor jackpot starts at $25 and pays by $50 and the Major jackpot starts at $250 and pays by $500. Playing the minimum bet, the Minor jackpot moves 1 penny after 3 spins and the Major jackpot moves 1 penny after 5 spins. {Again, I think figuring out the b.e. threshold for these would not be hard if one knew the machines average payout (is it 85% or 90% or what?)}.

There was one bank of Bally machines I saw and it appeared Ainsworth provided the software. (These machines were called House of Fortune and Dragon Lines.) They were similar to the Ainsworth machines mentioned before with Minor jackpots of $20 to $50 and Major ones from $350 to $400. The minimum (30 cents) spin moves the Minor jackpot 1 penny every 7 spins and the Major jackpot moved 1 penny every 14 spins.

Finally, is another game by WMS called Reel Boost. Unlike the WMS G+Delux this machine moves the jackpots consistently like the other games. These games were 40 cent minimums and the Minor jackpot moved every 4 spins and the Major jackpot every 5 spins. The Minor jackpot range was $25 to $50 and Major was $250 to $500.

So, after all that long-winded explanation here finally is my question: does anyone know what the thresholds are for all these games, not counting the WMS G+Delux machines which are much more random in their jackpot increases?

As I stated above, it seems like it would be easy enough to find if one knew the individual machine payback ranges in terms of percentage paid back on average. If you need additional information I can provide I will be happy to go back and check further parameters on the machines. For instance, I guess I don't know for sure if the jackpots move up 1 penny consistently or if as other posters have suggested that they move more slowly when you get closer to the jackpot pay lines. I did not see anything that indicated this was the case and my tests were run on machines at various levels, so I am of the opinion that all these machines mentioned move the jackpots consistently based on a number of spins and bet levels. I did not test for higher bets. I should do that next I know. I am under the assumption that betting 30 cents and needing 3 spins to move a jackpot would mean betting 90 cents would require only 1 spin to move the jackpot. If that information is necessary to compute the thresholds let me know and I can go test it at some point in the future.
rxwine
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August 31st, 2012 at 11:11:25 PM permalink
I played these machines quite a bit before I left Vegas.

I put $1000 into one machine one evening and bonus meter movement averaged to just around $100 in per 10 dollars added to the bonus meter on that machine.

I actually came out about even on return with my losses and hitting the high bonus finally. But I racked multi thousands points on my player card, so I figured I actually came out ahead.

If I quit before hitting that high meter I probably would have been several hundred behind. So chasing it was worthwhile. Just don't be underfunded.
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rubixxcube
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September 1st, 2012 at 12:49:01 PM permalink
I observed these machines for a little bit last night. Various JP levels and people betting various amounts and my own play. The JPs seem to be moving in a linear fashion. Both meters move together at a rate of 1/2% of your payout and it tallies it from spin to spin. It moved 1 penny on both JPs for every $2 won. The 2 JP always moved the same amount and together. If the win was less than $2 nothing happened but it tracked them, so if you won .50, then .70 then .50 on the last spin they both moved a penny. I observed this on both the .40-4.00 and the .50-2.50 machines. Different places may have different settings but this is how these machines at the Hard Rock increase their JPs.
rxwine
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September 1st, 2012 at 1:04:03 PM permalink
IMO, these are the kind of machines that are good if you're a frequent vistor of the casino and are patient. You're banking on trying to take advantage of another player leaving you a high/near jackpot, and the casino has little to do with that part.

If you can manage to find one with high total on a multiple point payback day, then there's a pretty good chance that the worst you will do is play for free essentially, getting back approximately what you put in when it finally hits.
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Mission146
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September 1st, 2012 at 7:40:08 PM permalink
Quote: rubixxcube

I observed these machines for a little bit last night. Various JP levels and people betting various amounts and my own play. The JPs seem to be moving in a linear fashion. Both meters move together at a rate of 1/2% of your payout and it tallies it from spin to spin. It moved 1 penny on both JPs for every $2 won. The 2 JP always moved the same amount and together. If the win was less than $2 nothing happened but it tracked them, so if you won .50, then .70 then .50 on the last spin they both moved a penny. I observed this on both the .40-4.00 and the .50-2.50 machines. Different places may have different settings but this is how these machines at the Hard Rock increase their JPs.



Excellent work!

This makes sense. I'm not surprised to see that the machine does not have a minimum win necessary to move the Progressive Meter, figuring, of course, that it would just go to the furthest decimal place necessary based on x (in this case, .5%) on the smallest possible win.

The main thing we can discern from this is a maximum amount won in order to hit the $500.

$500 - $250 (starting point) / .005 (.5%) = x

$250 / .005 = x

$50,000.00 = x

In other words, if the machine reset to the $250 on the Major Jackpot, it would take $50,000.00 in total WINS in order to be guaranteed the Jackpot.

$50 - $25 (starting point) / .005 = x

$25 / .005 = x

$5000 = x

In other words, if the machine reset to the $25 on the Minor Jackpot, it would take $5,000 in total WINS in order to be guaranteed the Jackpot.

There are four possibilities for Max Betting v. Minimum Betting:

1.) There is no advantage/disadvantage. In this case, the JP is an amount randomly determined for each Jackpot at such time that the Jackpot resets. The Base Game Payouts ARE perfectly graduated, so Betting Max Credits/Lines on the Base Game also provides no Advantage/Disadvantage. We also know that the Jackpot totals rise in a perfectly graduated fashion with respect to amount won.

2.) There is an advantage to Max Betting because the Base Game Payouts are imperfectly graduated. In other words, certain Line results pay a higher percentage of the Line Bet than do others when you bet minimum. The second thing this would do (since you should hit some of those imperfectly graduated payouts) is raise the Progressive Meters faster by Max Betting, simply because your ER ($$$ won) on the bets is greater.

3.) There is an advantage to Max Betting because the Jackpots are controlled by an RNG (but programmed to automatically pay at $50/$500, respectively), the Jackpots ARE random, and there are simply more JP paying results (unseen) the higher your bet level is thereby making the JP more likely.

4.) Both 2 AND 3.

Spinning at an Advantage

I would say that the Major Jackpot is not necessarily the best paying possible result, this title would probably belong to, "Free Games," particularly the 100 Free Games on machines such as Kronos. The Jackpot can probably also be triggered (increased) by a Free Games win, so it's already kind of incorporated in there.

I'm going to go ahead and assume a base ER of about 88%, with the type of coin-in that would need to secure THIS jackpot, I'd hope to God it is at least that much.

We want to figure out at what decimal place we are spinning at an advantage (based on a guaranteed payout of $50/$500 when it reaches that point.)

The 88% figure already assumes the Base Pays of $25/$250 on the JP, so our only variables are going to be on that extra $25/$250.

If we get 88% of our money back, then a theoretical $1 * .88 * .005 = .0044 or .44% of every dollar bet feeds the Progressive.

In the case of the Major Jackpot, then, we are returned .8844 of every dollar assuming we hit the Jackpot at some point. However, the original $250 (Base Major) is not factored in as part of the .44%, it exists only as the Base Pay.

1 - .8844 = .1156, (11.56% Hold) which is how much needs to be made up in ER.

In this case, the amount of coin-in must equal the ER of the coin-in + Starting Major Amount (less $250) to have us spinning at 100% actual ER.

The hold is .1156 and the amount in for Progressive is .0044 of every dollar. .1156/.0044 = 26.272727272, so this must happen 26.27272727272 times for us to be at 100% EV.

$250/26.27272727 = $9.52 which is the amount the Progressive can be short by to be spinning at an advantage.

It would take $9.52/.005 = $1904 in wins to Lock up $500 at ER. The overall ER is .8844 so $1904/.8844 = $2,152.87

$500 - $9.52 - $250 + $1904 = $2,144.48 ER on $2,152.87 coin-in at this point, with differences due to rounding.

Likewise, on the Minor Jackpot, all you would do is divide by ten, so it must be at $50 -$0.952 or $49.05 to be spinning at 100% ER.

DISCLAIMERS

1.) All of this assumes a Base ER of 88%. It could be more or less, but we're probably within two percentage points.

2.) There will be combinations of Major/Minor where you could be at an advantage with neither actually being at the advantage point in and of itself. If the Major were not at the advantage point, the Minor would have to be damn close, and vice-versa.

3.) If the jackpot point is pre-determined after the release of a Jackpot, then it could very well go off prior to $50/$500. We cannot assume that this is the case at this time, and even if we could, we still wouldn't know when. Given that this is the case, I had to use an amount of coin-in that would put us up to $500 based on ER.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
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Joined: May 15, 2012
September 3rd, 2012 at 8:50:30 PM permalink
I also wanted to quickly specify that you would not actually pull out $2,152.87 and put it into the machine. It just means you are playing that amount in total bets. If the amount of the bet is $4.00, and the Base ER of that $4.00 is $3.52, then you would still have a theoretical $3.52 after that spin to bet.

In this case, we have a Base ER of 88% and we want to do $2,152.87 in total bets.

$259.52 * .88 = $228.38 ($259.52 bet)

$228.38 * .88 = $200.97 ($460.49 bet)

$200.97 * .88 = $176.86 ($661.46 bet)

$176.86 * .88 = $155.63 ($838.32 bet)

$155.63 * .88 = $136.96 ($993.95 bet)

$136.96 * .88 = $120.52 ($1,130.91 bet)

$120.52 * .88 = $106.06 ( $1251.43 bet)

$106.06 * .88 = $93.33 ($1357.49 bet)

$93.33 * .88 = $82.13 ($1450.82 bet)

$82.13 * .88 = $72.28 ($1,532.95 bet)

$72.28 * .88 = $63.60 ($1605.23 bet)

$63.60 * .88 = $55.97 ($1668.83 bet)

$55.97 * .88 = $49.25 ($1724.80 bet)

$49.25 * .88 = $43.34 ($1774.05 bet)

$43.34 * .88 = $38.14 ($1817.39 bet)

$38.14 * .88 = $33.57 ($1,855.53 bet)

$33.57 * .88 = $29.54 ($1,889.10 bet)

$29.54 * .88 = $25.99 ($1918.64 bet)

$25.99 * .88 = $22.87 ($1944.63 bet)

$22.87 * .88 = $20.13 ($1967.50 bet)

$20.13 * .88 = $17.71 ($1987.63 bet)

$17.71 * .88 = $15.59 ($2005.34 bet)

$15.59 * .88 = $13.72 ($2020.93 bet)

$13.72 * .88 = $12.07 ($2034.65 bet)

$12.07 * .88 = $10.62 ($2046.72 bet)

$10.62 * .88 = $9.34 ($2057.34 bet)

$9.34 * .88 = $8.23 ($2066.68 bet)

$8.23 * .88 = $7.24 ($2074.91 bet)

$7.24 * .88 = $6.37 ($2082.15 bet)

$6.37 * .88 = $5.61 ($2088.52 bet)

$5.61 * .88 = $4.93 ($2094.13 bet)

$4.93 * .88 = $4.34 ($2099.06 bet)

$4.34 * .88 = $3.82 ($2103.40 bet)

$3.82 * .88 = $3.36 ( $2107.22 bet)

$3.36 * .88 = $2.96 ($2110.58 bet)

$2.96 * .88 = $2.60 ($2113.54 bet)

$2.60 * .88 = $2.29 ($2116.14 bet)

$2.29 * .88 = $2.02 ($2118.43 bet)

$2.02 * .88 = $1.77 ($2120.45 bet)

$1.77 * .88 = $1.56 ($2122.22 bet)

$1.56 * .88 = $1.37 ($2123.78 bet)

$1.37 * .88 = $1.21 ($2125.15 bet)

$1.21 * .88 = $1.06 ($2126.36 bet)

$1.06 * .88 = $.94 ($2127.42 bet)

$.94 * .88 = $.82 ($2128.36 bet)

$.82 * .88 = $.73 ($2129.18 bet)

.73 * .88 = $0.64 ($2129.91 bet)

$0.64 * .88 = $.56 ($2130.55 bet)

$.56 * .88 = $.49 ($2131.11 bet)

$.49 * .88 = $.43 ($2131.60 bet)

$.43 * .88 = $.38 ($2132.03 bet)

$.38 * .88 = $.34 ($2132.41 bet)

$.34 * .88 = $.30 ($2132.75 bet)

I'm going to stop there. Now, wins on $2,132.75 bet total $2,132.75 * .88= $1876.82 from which $1876.32*.005 = $9.38 is fed into the Progressive, $2,132.75 + 9.38 = $2,142.13 we would need $.14 more fed into it for a guarantee, this is for two reasons:



1.) Rounding in the previous post.

2.) I did not fully finish the chain above.

3.) It is no coincidence, however, that $259.52 is the amount of money the player should put through the machine (at ER) to realize the jackpot. This is the $250 (base difference between $500 Max and base jackpot of $250) and the $9.52 that the Progressive is short from hitting. Remember that the base $250 from the Jackpot falls under base pays, as does any potentiality of the minor Jackpot.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
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