MrPapagiorgio
MrPapagiorgio
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January 16th, 2010 at 10:55:35 AM permalink
I've recently been playing some Texas Holdem on PokerStars. In my last session I went into the flop with 2 clubs (queen, and maybe a 7) - it was only a dime to call (an actual dime, not $10). Anyway, I was dealt two more clubs off the flop. One of my two remaining opponents had the same number of remaining chips as me ($8 and change - I play micro blind no limit), and he went all in. With two chances to hit a club, I called. I hit my flush on the river and won. I know that Wizard's chart says I had a 34.97% chance of making my flush, and based on what was out there, I didn't think either opponent could beat a flush (though anything is possible after the turn and river), so was it a good play?. Thanks for the feedback. Still aggressively learning.

-Edit, I also had a pair of queens after the flop.
So I says to him, I said "Get your own monkey!"
stephen
stephen
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January 16th, 2010 at 11:26:01 AM permalink
It's hard to say, but probably not. If you were just calling to make the flush, it was a bad play (you were getting roughly even money to make a 3:1 hand). The fact that you also paired your queen changes the situation quite a bit, however. Assuming the queen was the top pair, you were possibly a favorite to win.

However, in my experience the other player isn't likely to push all in on a board like that with very little in the pot without a hand. If the other player had an overpair (kings or aces) with no flush draw, you were only a slight underdog (twodimes calculates you would lose about 50.20% percent of the time against AA if the aces didn't have one of your clubs).

However, against a hand like AQ (no clubs) you were more of a dog, with around a 54% chance of losing. If your opponent is holding the ace of clubs, you are even worse off, with a 60% chance of losing.

If your opponent is holding a set, you all but have to hit your flush to win and there's a possibility that you can make your flush while he still makes a full house. Against middle set, you have about a 70% chance of losing.

You have to really be hoping that your opponent has a hand like bottom two pair, which makes you about even or a slight favorite. Of course, if you think your opponent will risk $8 to win a pot of less than $1 with a pure bluff, then you should call. If he has something like AK (no clubs) you have an 80% chance of winning the hand.

But again, my experience says it's usually bad to call a massive overbet with just top pair (weak kicker) and the non-nut flush draw. I'm not going to bust out the Bayes theorem and try to calculate the EV given different probabilities for different hands, but I think that in most circumstances you are an underdog to what's basically an even money call.
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
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January 16th, 2010 at 11:54:29 AM permalink
Quote: MrPapagiorgio

I've recently been playing some Texas Holdem on PokerStars. In my last session I went into the flop with 2 clubs (queen, and maybe a 7) - it was only a dime to call (an actual dime, not $10). Anyway, I was dealt two more clubs off the flop. One of my two remaining opponents had the same number of remaining chips as me ($8 and change - I play micro blind no limit), and he went all in. With two chances to hit a club, I called. I hit my flush on the river and won.



You'd have to assume he has trips or two pair (probably trips), so you have to hit a club or a queen to beat him. There are two queens and 9 clubs, so you have 11 outs. You have approximately a 43% chance of hitting one of those two cards on the next two cards: (11/45) + (34/45)(11/44). It's actually a bit worse for you than 43% because he can make quads or a full house, beating your trips or flush.

Given you are calling $8, that dwarfs the 10 cents you orinally bet. You should only call with 50% or higher chance of winning the hand. You have a 43% chance, so you should fold. Calling a flush or straight draw without pot odds is a very common mistake that costs a lot of money over the long run.

In general, on most drawing hands it is incorrect to call unless you get pot odds, so you should always do this computation. Last night I had KT clubs and the board showd QJ6 with the Q and 6 both clubs. I called an all in similar to yours on this drawing hand. I figured I won with any K, club, A or 9. That gave me 17 outs. My odds of hitting an out were (17/45) + (28/45)(17/44) = 61.8%. Of course, the raiser could have improved his hand, but I still had great pot odds. I spiked a king and won the hand.

By the way, there is a VERY EASY way of estimating your chance of hitting one of your outs after the flop (turn and river remaining). Simply multiply your outs times 4. This is quick and dirty. So, you had 11 outs. 11*4 = 44, so you were 44% to make your hand. I had 17 outs, 17*4 = 68%. These are not accurate numbers, they are off a bit. But for a quick computation in your head it's ok.

--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
MrPapagiorgio
MrPapagiorgio
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January 16th, 2010 at 2:22:19 PM permalink
Quote: DorothyGale

Quote: MrPapagiorgio

I've recently been playing some Texas Holdem on PokerStars. In my last session I went into the flop with 2 clubs (queen, and maybe a 7) - it was only a dime to call (an actual dime, not $10). Anyway, I was dealt two more clubs off the flop. One of my two remaining opponents had the same number of remaining chips as me ($8 and change - I play micro blind no limit), and he went all in. With two chances to hit a club, I called. I hit my flush on the river and won.



You'd have to assume he has trips or two pair (probably trips), so you have to hit a club or a queen to beat him. There are two queens and 9 clubs, so you have 11 outs. You have approximately a 43% chance of hitting one of those two cards on the next two cards: (11/45) + (34/45)(11/44). It's actually a bit worse for you than 43% because he can make quads or a full house, beating your trips or flush.

Given you are calling $8, that dwarfs the 10 cents you orinally bet. You should only call with 50% or higher chance of winning the hand. You have a 43% chance, so you should fold. Calling a flush or straight draw without pot odds is a very common mistake that costs a lot of money over the long run.

In general, on most drawing hands it is incorrect to call unless you get pot odds, so you should always do this computation. Last night I had KT clubs and the board showd QJ6 with the Q and 6 both clubs. I called an all in similar to yours on this drawing hand. I figured I won with any K, club, A or 9. That gave me 17 outs. My odds of hitting an out were (17/45) + (28/45)(17/44) = 61.8%. Of course, the raiser could have improved his hand, but I still had great pot odds. I spiked a king and won the hand.

By the way, there is a VERY EASY way of estimating your chance of hitting one of your outs after the flop (turn and river remaining). Simply multiply your outs times 4. This is quick and dirty. So, you had 11 outs. 11*4 = 44, so you were 44% to make your hand. I had 17 outs, 17*4 = 68%. These are not accurate numbers, they are off a bit. But for a quick computation in your head it's ok.

--Dorothy



Thanks Dorothy. Helpful and knowledgeable as always.
So I says to him, I said "Get your own monkey!"
MrPapagiorgio
MrPapagiorgio
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January 16th, 2010 at 2:28:49 PM permalink
Quote: stephen

...if you think your opponent will risk $8 to win a pot of less than $1 with a pure bluff, then you should call. If he has something like AK (no clubs) you have an 80% chance of winning the hand.



Thinking back, I now remember that I called at a dime (the amount of the BB), but was raised to $0.30 before the flop. A few players called it to see the flop, and there may have been up to $1.25 to $1.50 already in the pot at the time that he raised to $8.XX. Anyway, thanks to yourself and Dorothy for the responses. It's been helpful.
So I says to him, I said "Get your own monkey!"
wildqat
wildqat
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January 16th, 2010 at 10:17:15 PM permalink
Given this:
Quote: MrPapagiorgio

In my last session I went into the flop with 2 clubs (queen, and maybe a 7)


and this:
Quote: MrPapagiorgio

Thinking back, I now remember that I called at a dime (the amount of the BB), but was raised to $0.30 before the flop.


fold pre imo. Don't limp the 10¢, and definitely don't call the raise.

That aside, who was the one who shoved? Was it the raiser, or one of the callers? If I was to guess, if it's the initial raiser, you're probably up against aces, kings, AQ, two pair, a set, maybe KQ. If it's one of the callers, you can eliminate aces and kings fairly safely (they would most likely have reraised). Either way you're not beating a whole lot except a bluff. I don't have Pokerstove handy, but my guess is that you're so far behind anything but a bluff that you should probably just fold.

Can you post the hand history? That will help us with what advice to give.
FootofGod
FootofGod
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March 4th, 2010 at 12:56:16 AM permalink
In short, you played the hand wrong somewhere, if not all the way through. Limping and calling a raise definitely seems bad no matter how you cut it, but after the flop, with top pair and possibly near even money odds ($8 to win $10 means 8/18 = .44, and it looks like you had about 43-48% chance of winning), but we don't know the particulars of the hand.

Either way, you only set up the possibly acceptable move by doing a bad move first. As we all know, we cannot judge plays like this based on rather we won or lost them, as anything can happen in the short term. Entering pots the way you did and getting caught in situations like this, where a better player will be able to punish you, is the makings of a losing poker player (no offense. You're obviously asking because you want to learn and improve, which is the making of a winning player). What pots you enter and how you enter them is crucial.
TheJacob
TheJacob
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:23:35 AM permalink
1.) Don't limp(call) with trash preflop in games where the majority of your profit comes from simply playing better hands than your opponents preflop.

2.) You don't have enough equity to call against hand ranges that only include made hands.

3.) Your opponents range will include higher flush draws, it won't include lower flush draws that often.

Playing bad hands at these stakes isn't a good idea.

Playing bad hands passively as any stakes isn't a good idea.
ruascott
ruascott
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:44:23 AM permalink
Quote: TheJacob


Playing bad hands at these stakes isn't a good idea.



Agree with all you said, shouldn't have limped in. But isn't that what playing ultra-low stakes all about? That's been my experience with games like that, players will call anything and everything. Similar to Low-Limit Hold'Em.
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