SLCity
SLCity
Joined: Jul 1, 2011
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July 1st, 2011 at 4:08:55 PM permalink
What are the odds of losing to quads three times in eight hours of live play? Quads are 1/4200 approximately. How did this happen to me, especially when I hit full houses on the flop twice. Just a series of bad beats?
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
Joined: Jun 10, 2010
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July 1st, 2011 at 4:32:38 PM permalink
How many of your other quads won during that time?
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
Joined: Jun 10, 2010
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July 1st, 2011 at 4:58:25 PM permalink
Assuming that you didn't get another four of a kind during that time. The chances of losing three of the four of a kinds you received at a ten hand Texas Hold'em table in-a-row is about 1 chance in 81. The chance of a single four of a kind losing (without knowing anything else about the quality of the 4oak) is a little better than one in nine. so to lose two in a row, you have to lose the first one so that's a given, then one in nine times the third which is another one in nine.

1/81-ish
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
Joined: Jun 10, 2010
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July 2nd, 2011 at 9:03:28 AM permalink
D'oh! I misread this. I think he was asking how many times does a 4oak come up in live play. And the answer is something like a %50 chance per 42 hands at a 10 player table. Assuming that you can churn out 42 hands per hour, that would be about a %50 chance per hour. Here's the logic:

That chance of a single hand being a 4oak is about 1 in 600.
The chances of not seeing a 4oak in a single deal at a 10 player table is (599/600)^10 = 0.983454
The chances of not seeing a 4oak in 42 deals at a 10 player table is 0.983454^42 = 0.496215

This of course assumes that all player play every hand through the river but when you're holding a pair as your hole cards, chances are pretty good you're going to pay to see the flop.

I don't think that seeing three 4oaks in 8 hours is an unreasonable expectation. Having two full houses that get beat by those 4oaks is just bad luck.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez

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