Bad Beat, How would you rule this?
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11 members have voted
February 13th, 2011 at 7:45:59 PM
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You are a poker room manager. Your casino has a bad beat jackpot.
To qualify in Texas Hold'em:
1. Must lose with 4 of a kind or better
2. Must use both hole cards.
(for this scenario, all other 'standard' rules would be met.. example, Must have 'x' amount of money in pot, all of those type of rules)
The payouts only state:
Losing Hand be paid 50% of jackpot.
Winning Hand be paid 25% of jackpot.
All other players at table split 25%
--------
Lets say there are 8 players playing at a table.
The community board is: 3heart 4heart 5heart 4diamond 5diamond
Player 1 has 6 heart - 7 heart ---for 7 high straight flush
Player 2 has A heart - 2 heart --- for 5 high straight flush
Player 3 has 5 spade - 5 club ---for four a kind 5's
Player 4 has 4 spade - 4 club ---for four a kind 4's
Player 5-8 hands all fold preflop.
How would you pay out the bad beat percentage wise?
To qualify in Texas Hold'em:
1. Must lose with 4 of a kind or better
2. Must use both hole cards.
(for this scenario, all other 'standard' rules would be met.. example, Must have 'x' amount of money in pot, all of those type of rules)
The payouts only state:
Losing Hand be paid 50% of jackpot.
Winning Hand be paid 25% of jackpot.
All other players at table split 25%
--------
Lets say there are 8 players playing at a table.
The community board is: 3heart 4heart 5heart 4diamond 5diamond
Player 1 has 6 heart - 7 heart ---for 7 high straight flush
Player 2 has A heart - 2 heart --- for 5 high straight flush
Player 3 has 5 spade - 5 club ---for four a kind 5's
Player 4 has 4 spade - 4 club ---for four a kind 4's
Player 5-8 hands all fold preflop.
How would you pay out the bad beat percentage wise?
February 13th, 2011 at 7:49:03 PM
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Did this actually happen?!?!?
February 13th, 2011 at 7:50:35 PM
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No it didn't.
Bonus... If anybody can do the math to find out what the probability of that said hand occuring... I will forever be impressed by your intellect.
Bonus... If anybody can do the math to find out what the probability of that said hand occuring... I will forever be impressed by your intellect.
February 13th, 2011 at 8:22:08 PM
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I actually asked a poker room manager ad Showboat AC about this very scenario.
His immediate response was, "That will never happen". I kinda agree what with the difficulty of just getting a regular Bad Beat, getting a three- or four-way Bad Beat is even rarer.
He then said the winner (with the 7 high SF) gets the 25%, the primary loser (with the 5 high SH) gets 50%. ALL other players share 25%
He also said that it sucks for the players with the quads, but that's what the rule it is.
His immediate response was, "That will never happen". I kinda agree what with the difficulty of just getting a regular Bad Beat, getting a three- or four-way Bad Beat is even rarer.
He then said the winner (with the 7 high SF) gets the 25%, the primary loser (with the 5 high SH) gets 50%. ALL other players share 25%
He also said that it sucks for the players with the quads, but that's what the rule it is.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 13th, 2011 at 8:53:42 PM
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Under some other circumstances I would consider prioritizing specific payout rules over posted combined maximum, for such a one-in-a-lifetime situation, but since the bad beat jackpot is fixed and spread as percentages, there isn't much flexibility left.
Casinos sometimes already have a payout rule for the second-best losing hand. There also can be a reserve jackpot in play. If the latter can be tapped according to internal policies, then that could be done. But otherwise, 3rd and 4th hands would just have to split the remaining 25%.
Casinos sometimes already have a payout rule for the second-best losing hand. There also can be a reserve jackpot in play. If the latter can be tapped according to internal policies, then that could be done. But otherwise, 3rd and 4th hands would just have to split the remaining 25%.
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February 13th, 2011 at 11:36:29 PM
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There's a rarely used rule here, that in such a situation, all four players are dragged away by security and shot, and the jackpot goes to the next player who says the secret word ("rutabaga").
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
February 14th, 2011 at 12:03:06 AM
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P1: 25%
P2 - P4: 16.7% each
P5 - P8: 6.25% each
And a very long wait getting paid off.
DJ I certainly hope that you understand that not only CAN it happen, it HAS to happen... it MUST happen eventually. It is a mathematical certainty.
P2 - P4: 16.7% each
P5 - P8: 6.25% each
And a very long wait getting paid off.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI actually asked a poker room manager ad Showboat AC about this very scenario.
His immediate response was, "That will never happen". I kinda agree what with the difficulty of just getting a regular Bad Beat, getting a three- or four-way Bad Beat is even rarer.
DJ I certainly hope that you understand that not only CAN it happen, it HAS to happen... it MUST happen eventually. It is a mathematical certainty.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1.
The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
February 14th, 2011 at 4:53:47 AM
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Of course I know that.Quote: discflickerDJ I certainly hope that you understand that not only CAN it happen, it HAS to happen... it MUST happen eventually. It is a mathematical certainty.
I'm just repeating what the poker manager at Showboat said. I said the four-way is rarer, not impossible.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 14th, 2011 at 7:57:43 AM
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Quote: discflicker
DJ I certainly hope that you understand that not only CAN it happen, it HAS to happen... it MUST happen eventually. It is a mathematical certainty.
I'll argue that a 4-way bad beat jackpot does not HAVE to happen. And it's definitely not a mathematical certainty that it will happen.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:06:06 AM
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You're arguing with emotions. The 'gut feel' that says "no way."Quote: FinsRuleI'll argue that a 4-way bad beat jackpot does not HAVE to happen. And it's definitely not a mathematical certainty that it will happen.
Based upon the rules of poker, and the rules of the Bad Beat, it IS possible.
Mathematically, it IS possible - but it has an infinitely small chance of occuring.
Will it happen any time in the next million years? Probably not, but it CAN happen tomorrow.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 14th, 2011 at 8:10:43 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearWill it happen any time in the next million years? Probably not, but it CAN happen tomorrow.
I'll go with the argument that given enough trials, all possibilities will take place eventually. Adding only the caveat that the number of possible trials has to be finite or small enough. How many ways can cards be arranged in a hold 'em game with 8 players?
Oh, this excludes a fixed deck.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
February 14th, 2011 at 8:16:39 AM
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Getting back to the scenario and not debating whether or not it is possible or not (btw, yes it is possible) here are the arguments I see from each player.
Player 1 with the 7 high straight flush has the winning hand. Player 1 will have an extremely strong argument that he/she should be entitled to 25% of the jackpot.
Player 2 with the 5 high straight flush can argue that since losing with a straight flush was a much worse beat than losing with four of a kind, he/she should receive the losing share (50%). Holding a straight flush, then losing to a player that MUST have two exact cards to give a higher straight flush... during the hand player 2 must have thought it was a certainty to win the pot (not the bad beat but the pot).
Player 4 with four a kind 4s can make the argument that his/her hand was the worst of the four (while still holding having a bad beat qualifying hand). Player 4 did not win the main pot, or ANY (if they had any) side pots. No matter the stack sized, Player 4 did not collect 1$ from any of the pots while holding a bad beat qualifier.
Player 3 with four a kind 5s can really only argue that his/her hand was a bad beat qualifier and lost. Sort of got sandwiched between a better losing qualifier and a worse losing qualifier.
Player 1 with the 7 high straight flush has the winning hand. Player 1 will have an extremely strong argument that he/she should be entitled to 25% of the jackpot.
Player 2 with the 5 high straight flush can argue that since losing with a straight flush was a much worse beat than losing with four of a kind, he/she should receive the losing share (50%). Holding a straight flush, then losing to a player that MUST have two exact cards to give a higher straight flush... during the hand player 2 must have thought it was a certainty to win the pot (not the bad beat but the pot).
Player 4 with four a kind 4s can make the argument that his/her hand was the worst of the four (while still holding having a bad beat qualifying hand). Player 4 did not win the main pot, or ANY (if they had any) side pots. No matter the stack sized, Player 4 did not collect 1$ from any of the pots while holding a bad beat qualifier.
Player 3 with four a kind 5s can really only argue that his/her hand was a bad beat qualifier and lost. Sort of got sandwiched between a better losing qualifier and a worse losing qualifier.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:22:06 AM
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Quote: NareedI'll go with the argument that given enough trials, all possibilities will take place eventually. Adding only the caveat that the number of possible trials has to be finite or small enough. How many ways can cards be arranged in a hold 'em game with 8 players?
Oh, this excludes a fixed deck.
I might be wrong on this.. but whether there were just those 4 players, 5 players, 8 players, or 10 players.... it would not matter.
All that matters is
one player receives:A-2 hh
"" 6-7 hh
"" 4-4 (any two suits excluding heart)
"" 5-5 (any two suits excluding heart)
and the board is (in any order): 3h-4h-5h (any suit 4) (any suit 5)
Now when I state ANY SUIT.. if the board is diamond.. then the player must have spade and club. .. If you look at it as player has diamond and club.. then the board must be spade.. you all get the point..
February 14th, 2011 at 8:23:49 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearYou're arguing with emotions. The 'gut feel' that says "no way."
Based upon the rules of poker, and the rules of the Bad Beat, it IS possible.
Mathematically, it IS possible - but it has an infinitely small chance of occuring.
Will it happen any time in the next million years? Probably not, but it CAN happen tomorrow.
I'm arguing with emotions?!?!? Haha, I'm arguing with rational thought. Of course it's mathematically possible. I'm assuming that the life of casinos and bad beat jackpots as we know it will not be around long enough for that to ever get to that mathematical possibility.
First of all, this hand has to be dealt at a casino that has a bad beat jackpot. Then, not only do the right cards have to be dealt, the flop has to come in the right order so that everyone stays in.
The world had barely started playing Texas Hold 'Em 100 years ago, and we're going to assume that it will be played for the next millino years?!!?!?!
That's my issue with a lot of these arguments. A mathematical possibility does not mean that something will ever happen. I don't always take the jump from hypothetical to actual. So yes, I'm going to stick to my belief that it is not a mathematical certainty that this will ever happen.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:34:20 AM
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Of the possible choices I gave:
Scenario 1 = 25% Player 1, 50% Player 2, 25% to table
Scenario 2 = 25% Player 1, 50% Player 4, 25% to table
Scenario 3 = 25% Player 1, 50% split to Players2,3,4, 25% Table
Scenario 4 = 75% split to Players 1,2,3,4 ; 25% Table
I personally would go with: 7-high straight flush gets 25%, 5-high straight flush gets 50%, table gets 25%
I think maybe putting a dollar amount will sway some people.
100,000$ - 200,000$ - 300,000$ jackpots
Remember: 8 players at table.
Scenario 1.
Player 1 = 25,000$ ; 50,000$ ; 75,000$
Player 2 = 50,000$ ; 100,000$ ; 150,000$
Player 3,4,5,6,7,8 (each) = 4,166.66$ ; 8,333.33$ ; 12,500$
Scenario 2.
Player 1 = 25,000$ ; 50,000$ ; 75,000$
Player 4 = 50,000$ ; 100,000$ ; 150,000$
Player 2,3,5,6,7,8 (each) = 4,166.66$ ; 8,33333$ ; 12,500$
Scenario 3.
Player 1 = 25,000$ ; 50,000$ ; 75,000$
Player 2,3,4 (each) = 16,666.66$ ; 33,333.33$ ; 50,000$
Player 5,6,7,8 (each) = 6,250$ ; 12,500$ ; 18,750$
Scenario 4.
Player 1,2,3,4 (each) = 18,750$ ; 37,500$, 56,250$
Player 5,6,7,8 (each) = 6,250$ ; 12,500$ ; 18,750$
Scenario 1 = 25% Player 1, 50% Player 2, 25% to table
Scenario 2 = 25% Player 1, 50% Player 4, 25% to table
Scenario 3 = 25% Player 1, 50% split to Players2,3,4, 25% Table
Scenario 4 = 75% split to Players 1,2,3,4 ; 25% Table
I personally would go with: 7-high straight flush gets 25%, 5-high straight flush gets 50%, table gets 25%
I think maybe putting a dollar amount will sway some people.
100,000$ - 200,000$ - 300,000$ jackpots
Remember: 8 players at table.
Scenario 1.
Player 1 = 25,000$ ; 50,000$ ; 75,000$
Player 2 = 50,000$ ; 100,000$ ; 150,000$
Player 3,4,5,6,7,8 (each) = 4,166.66$ ; 8,333.33$ ; 12,500$
Scenario 2.
Player 1 = 25,000$ ; 50,000$ ; 75,000$
Player 4 = 50,000$ ; 100,000$ ; 150,000$
Player 2,3,5,6,7,8 (each) = 4,166.66$ ; 8,33333$ ; 12,500$
Scenario 3.
Player 1 = 25,000$ ; 50,000$ ; 75,000$
Player 2,3,4 (each) = 16,666.66$ ; 33,333.33$ ; 50,000$
Player 5,6,7,8 (each) = 6,250$ ; 12,500$ ; 18,750$
Scenario 4.
Player 1,2,3,4 (each) = 18,750$ ; 37,500$, 56,250$
Player 5,6,7,8 (each) = 6,250$ ; 12,500$ ; 18,750$
February 14th, 2011 at 8:35:29 AM
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Quote: minnesotajoeI might be wrong on this.. but whether there were just those 4 players, 5 players, 8 players, or 10 players.... it would not matter.
I think it does, because with different numbers of players different cards go on the flop. More players mean more variations on the way to arrange the cards, I think. This is way out of my league, really.
But my point is, regardless of whether the number of players amtters or not, that if there are a few billion eays of arranging the cards, then it's likely all possibilities will eventually take palce. If there are a trillion-trillion ways, then no. For one thing the game won't endure that long.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
February 14th, 2011 at 8:37:46 AM
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What are the odds of loosing with 4 aces to a royal flush? It happend in the WPT!
If you're gonna argue about a law of math (which this is), be prepared for a long argument on this forum, its filled with true math and stats experts who wont back down, and you will have sucessfully hijacked this thread.
If you're gonna argue about a law of math (which this is), be prepared for a long argument on this forum, its filled with true math and stats experts who wont back down, and you will have sucessfully hijacked this thread.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1.
The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:40:05 AM
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Infinity is a funny place. If there is a remote chance of something happening, then there's a very good chance that it will happen eventually. Mathies say it will happen asymptotically almost surely (a.a.s.). But it is NOT guaranteed to happen.
Also, I would write a better rule so as to not ever be in that situation.
Also, I would write a better rule so as to not ever be in that situation.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
February 14th, 2011 at 8:45:33 AM
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Quote: NareedI think it does, because with different numbers of players different cards go on the flop. More players mean more variations on the way to arrange the cards, I think.
I disagree on this principle.
The true odds differ slightly from this... but generally.. on the flop to calculate the % of a player winning the hand, you multiply the amount of outs one player has times 4.. and if it is on the turn you multiply it times 2.
Example: Ks-3c vs Qs-Qc
Flop is: 2h-7h-9d
player with K-3 only has three win cards (the other three Kings in the deck). 3x4=12% .. if say a 5 hits on turn.. player still has 3 outs.. 3x2=6%.. you can check any online poker calculator to prove it.
Now the percentages don't change whether the hand was dealt heads up or with 10 players or with 20 players (yes, I know poker rooms don't offer 20 handed tables)
February 14th, 2011 at 8:45:46 AM
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Anybody know hot to calculate the math on the hand???
February 14th, 2011 at 8:48:53 AM
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Quote: discflickerwhat are the odds of loosing with 4 aces to a royal flush?
it happend in the WPT!
I often practice VP at free sites online. Yesterday I had the following happen:
1) Playing 50 hand JoB I got dealt four to a royal. I kept them and drew one royal and a few straigths. Royal paid 4,000 to 1
2) Playing Ace Invaders (look it up at the Wizard of Odds site under VP) I held on to two jacks and an ace. one ace fell off the top hand, two fell from the middle hand, and the bottom hand wound up with five aces. The payoff on that is second to the royal at, I think, 2,500 to 1
3) Playing 50 hand DW I discarded a hand full of nothing. On the draw one of the hands got four deuces. The payoff is 1,000 to 1
Now imagine if that hapepned to you one day playing for real at the casino! What are the odds? I guess really, really low.
BTW this means I should not play any VP at all next trip, as I've used up all my luck practicing yesterday. But lucky for me I don't believe in luck :P
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
February 14th, 2011 at 8:51:04 AM
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Quote: dwheatleyInfinity is a funny place. If there is a remote chance of something happening, then there's a very good chance that it will happen eventually. Mathies say it will happen asymptotically almost surely (a.a.s.). But it is NOT guaranteed to happen.
Also, I would write a better rule so as to not ever be in that situation.
Thank you for putting this so well. My argument is that your argument is 100% wrong. And I'm not trying to be funny or difficult, although I am trying to hijack the thread. I'll move my argument to a new thread, because I'm nice like that.
My thoughts on this thread: Each casino with a bad beat jackpot should put a rule in for a 3 or 4 way bad beat split.
February 14th, 2011 at 10:16:50 AM
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Sigh....Quote: FinsRuleMy thoughts on this thread: Each casino with a bad beat jackpot should put a rule in for a 3 or 4 way bad beat split.
I'll repeat myself:
Although the poker room manager I spoke to injected his feeling that it will never happen, he also stated what the rules say will happen: The losing SF gets 50%, the winning SF gets 25%, and the quads along with the other players share the remaining 25%.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 14th, 2011 at 10:29:03 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearSigh....
I'll repeat myself:
Although the poker room manager I spoke to injected his feeling that it will never happen, he also stated what the rules say will happen: The losing SF gets 50%, the winning SF gets 25%, and the quads along with the other players share the remaining 25%.
Sigh... Each casino has different rules on bad beats, and I'm sure each casino has a different rule on what would happen in this situation. They should have a written rule somewhere. Just because the one person you talked to has a plan, doesn't mean every single person has the same plan, or any plan at all.
February 14th, 2011 at 11:11:44 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearSigh....
I'll repeat myself:
Although the poker room manager I spoke to injected his feeling that it will never happen, he also stated what the rules say will happen: The losing SF gets 50%, the winning SF gets 25%, and the quads along with the other players share the remaining 25%.
If that's what your poker room manager can cite to in his rules, that's okay, but that's also a different scenario than the OP. The OP rules only said "you must lose with quads or better, and you must use both hole cards". I would think players 3 and 4 have ample grounds for claiming a share of the jackpot, and moreover, if the casino withheld it, very clear grounds for a lawsuit. Unless the rules say "you must be the second best hand" or some variation, players 3 and 4 did indeed meet the qualification. The rules for splitting awards in poker are very clear: everyone who meets the criteria for winning wins an equal share of the pot, or a reduced share based on their contributions (in the case of an all-in). The latter scenario doesn't happen with the bad beat jackpot, and in the OP's case, all of players 2, 3, and 4 had hands that met the criteria for winning.
From a risk-mitigation standpoint and based on the stated rules, awarding the jackpot only to player 2 is a foolish operational decision. It invites litigation, and litigation will cost the casino more than the jackpot amount. If the room wants to clarify their rules after the fact, that's a separate issue.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
February 14th, 2011 at 11:33:48 AM
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Not only does Foxwoods have a "multiple qualifying hands" rule, they even have a rule for "simultaneous bad beats at different tables"
Quote: Foxwoods Bad Beat Rules
6. If a hand finishes with three qualifying hands, the lowest qualifying hand will receive only a remaining player’s share of the jackpot. For example if Quad Kings, Quad Queens and a Straight Flush are dealt in the same hand, the Bad Beat hand would be Quad Kings and the winning hand would be the Straight Flush.
7. If a Bad Beat Jackpot is hit on more than one table at the same time, the total jackpot will be divided by the number of Bad Beat winning tables. Then the jackpot will be dispersed on each table according to the percentages set forth above.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
February 14th, 2011 at 2:47:07 PM
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WOW! I did not even think of that happening.. Two bad beats hitting at the same time. That is awesome Foxwoods actually made that a rule.
