A poker hand that haunts me

I got into a private email conversation with a WoV member who is a wanna-be game designer that I think has a good attitude about the industry and struggles of game design.

During the conversation, he mentioned building a wall of chips to hide behind while playing poker.

On my last G2E trip, I made a couple small walls of chips, plus one nice chip rail at craps. These were all $200 buy-ins.


The conversation also reminded me of a poker hand I played about 10 years ago that still haunts me.

I had been doing well, and after a few hours had built my $200 buy in up to $650. I'm the chip leader. Then this hand happens.

Early players limp. I'm in the middle with a suited one gap: 6c8c, and throw my $2 in, expecting to never see it again. Everyone limps, and we're 9 handed with a flop of 5c7c8h. I have no expectation of being a winner with the top pair, but I have a monster draw - open ended straight flush.

Blinds check. UTG makes it $15. Early players fold to me.

I think about raising my monster draw, but it's only a draw, so I merely call.

It folds to the button who had been felted a little while earlier, rebought for $100, and had been pushing his chips around to build it up to about $170. He raises to $50. I figure he has two high cards with one club at best. No pair. He's just trying to buy it.

I immediately plan to go all in. The blinds fold, but UTG doesn't know about my plan, and shoves for about $450.

The other early players fold, so it's just the three of us, as shown here:


I only invested $17, but have a monster draw. I KNOW the button has crap. But the UTG? My wheels are turning, and I realize he has pocket fives for the bottom set.

Do I really call off all of my profits on this draw?
Why couldn't I be a short stack ninja? That would be an easy call.

What would you do?


I'll finish this story in a couple days.

I dump it in a heart beat, too much to call. Too many callers pre flop so you are in last place. Someone flipped set and or straight. Funny story, I was playing UTH during graveyard head up, I got every $5 chip from the dealer by winning and built the “Great Wall of China” as one dealer saw and named it. I told the pit I would sell them back if anyone sat down. I’ve managed to accomplish this feat a few times

Full house is very possible but you rarely get genuine straight flush draws like this. I like get it in because I'm not the strongest long term player at an event like that. Poor strategy players need to take large calculated risks and that's a good spot to do it.

I'd call. Even if UTG has the set, you have two shots at 17 outs. According to a calculator I pulled up, you win 45.56% of the time in that spot.

I don't play poker, but I like your chip fortress. I like to build my towers on the ends and gradually fill in the exterior walls.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

During the conversation, he mentioned building a wall of chips to hide behind while playing poker.
]

Hide what? Hopefully, your cards are in clear view, as I believe most rooms require that. It's a big issue with me when someone has their cards out of plain view.

Quote: AxelWolf

Hide what? Hopefully, your cards are in clear view, as I believe most rooms require that. It's a big issue with me when someone has their cards out of plain view.
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No. He meant it would be so high, it would hide his face. Yeah, I’d like a stack like that too!

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: AxelWolf

Hide what? Hopefully, your cards are in clear view, as I believe most rooms require that. It's a big issue with me when someone has their cards out of plain view.
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No. He meant it would be so high, it would hide his face. Yeah, I’d like a stack like that too!
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“Stacks and towers of checks I can't even see over.”

Re: your poker hand. I would happily get my money in heads up vs UTG. Would be a bit concerned that a nut flush draw or a made nut straight is in the button’s range though.

The short update:

I folded. But was that the right play?

More details Sunday.

Quote: unJon

Re: your poker hand. I would happily get my money in heads up vs UTG. Would be a bit concerned that a nut flush draw or a made nut straight is in the button’s range though.
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I would have also called with my main concern being the nut flush draw or maybe a slow-played over pair---with the second concern depending on if I have any read on the guy. Some players aren't inclined to get something like Jacks in pre-flop or perhaps didn't really think it was a good opportunity to do so.

I think he could also have something like tens, or maybe even nines. The nines would give him an inside straight draw and an inside over pair.

If he's got the nut straight, then it is what it is, but I'm blocking some straights with my six, obviously, so that's just one you have to take on the chin. Besides that, the best straight he could have is holding 6-9 for a made straight...which is actually not THAT bad because any flush that is not running clubs now wins for me (and that's only IF he has the nine of clubs). If neither of his cards is a club, then even better. Another thing with the made straight is that I have (as far as I know) some other nines in the deck for a push.

In my opinion, it's a very easy call, so I agree with you. I'm looking forward to hearing the flaws in my reasoning, though---I mean that genuinely. Do you agree with all aspects of my reasoning?

Sorry I hadn’t updated this sooner.

Quote: Mission146

… depending on if I have any read on the guy.
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I did have a read, on both of them. As I mentioned in the original post:

Quote: DJTeddyBear

It folds to the button who had been felted a little while earlier, rebought for $100, and had been pushing his chips around to build it up to about $170. He raises to $50. I figure he has two high cards with one club at best. No pair. He's just trying to buy it.

I immediately plan to go all in. The blinds fold, but UTG doesn't know about my plan, and shoves for about $450.
<snip>
I only invested $17, but have a monster draw. I KNOW the button has crap. But the UTG? My wheels are turning, and I realize he has pocket fives for the bottom set.
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Maybe I didn’t spell it out.

The guy on the button was just a wise guy, like I said, just pushing his chips around, buying pots.

The guy that went all in, although I didn’t really say, was a solid player. He had the second chip stack. I was the table leader. I thought he was playing pretty solidly which is how I came up to him having a set of fives. In my opinion, fives aren't good enough to raise under the gun pre-flop. But once he hit his set? His action totally makes sense.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Maybe I didn’t spell it out.

The guy on the button was just a wise guy, like I said, just pushing his chips around, buying pots.

The guy that went all in, although I didn’t really say, was a solid player. He had the second chip stack. I was the table leader. I thought he was playing pretty solidly which is how I came up to him having a set of fives. In my opinion, fives aren't good enough to raise under the gun pre-flop. But once he hit his set? His action totally makes sense.
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The misunderstanding is partially my fault; I should have specified that it depends on if I already have a read on the guy who shoved. I wouldn't really be all that concerned about the guy who raised to $50...I'm trying to figure out my equity against the guy who shoved and whether or not he's playing a flush draw or already has some kind of hand that's beating me so far. My biggest concern would probably be something like 99 or a flush draw with two high cards.

He ended up having trip fives? Yeah, I didn't even list that in the hands that I had contemplated. You'd be the dog against trip fives, but what can you do? Have to take your lumps on a hand like that.

To finish this story, and sorry if I repeat myself a little…


As I'm in the tank, I also start thinking, if my read is right, we're drawing to a Bad Beat.

Unfortunately, I don't have the brain power to figure out the odds while also thinking about the $450 to call.

I'm thinking about what the other players had.

Like I said, the button was just pushing his chips around trying to buy pots and rebuild his stack. I would have put him all in myself.

But the UTG was pretty solid. As such the only thing that made sense to me was a set. Eights were unlikely since I had one, and sevens seemed unlikely, because that's getting in the range where he might have raised pre-flop.

Fives. Yeah, fives under the gun makes a lot of sense.

As I'm thinking, I start to mutter, "I can't believe I have to fold this hand." And I' holding it in a manner that allows the player on each side of me to see.

After about a minute, I hold my cards in a forward manner, still thinking, and say, I know exactly what you both have, and I have to fold", and after another moment or two, finally drop them.

The button immediately folds, and the UTG says to the dealer and to me, "Wait... What do we have?"

I immediately grab my cards back, as does the button. I point to the button and say, "He's got a couple high cards. No pair, probably no club." I then point to the UTG, "And you? You have a set of fives."

"Me? Just an open-ended straight flush draw." I show my hand, and the other players do likewise.

My read was spot on. Two high cards, no pair, no club and pocket fives.

I like to think that if anyone suggested rabbit hunting that I would have objected, but nobody mentioned it.

----

One reason this hand haunts me is that I have that picture of the layout printed and hanging above my desk at my day job. Whenever someone who has never noticed it sees it, I have to tell this story again.

Some say call, some say fold. Most say either way it's a tough decision.

Only one person told me that it's an easy decision. My work girlfriend. I taught her to play, and then to deal and got her dealing in the same pub league where I deal.

Her simple answer was, "You went there to gamble, didn't you? Should have called."

The other reason it haunts me is because of the Bad Beat. I later calculated that, if my read was right, then we had a 1 in 451.5 chance of hitting it. Not great, but a lot better than most hands.

I also calculated that if my read was right, AND the three cards that are used to make the Bad Beat were not in anyone's hand, then the odds were only 1 in 203.


Sigh...

I should have called. Shouldn’t I?

Let me make sure that I'm following this:

We have nine limpers, so we have $16 in the pot preflop in addition to the $2 that is yours.

UTG leads $15 postflop, you call the $15, button raises to $50 (which makes absolutely no sense as a bluff, but like you said, he's playing like an idiot at that moment) and then UTG shoves for $450.

Where we end up is something like you have $17 in the pot and there is otherwise...what...$531 in the pot that you didn't put there? I'm sorry, I didn't quite get if the shove was $450 more or to bring it to $450 total---relative to the $15 lead out he made.

In any event, you've got a total of $467 (as I understand it) to put at stake against $531 that is not yours.

Assuming that you were right about the hands, obviously, button knows he has garbage at this point and is always folding. On the other hand, maybe he would decide he had sufficient equity to call if you had also shoved, but I seriously doubt it. The way he was playing, who really knows?

The push would chop, so has a value of half of whatever you and UTG did not put in the pot, which would be $33, I believe.

Using the WoO calculator:

(.4556 * 531) + (.0182 * 33) - (.5263 * 467) = -3.2579

Assuming I did that right and understood what you said correctly, your expectation from that pot was slightly negative. That said, depending on how sure you were about it when you put him on pocket fives means that I never want to play poker with you!!!

Personally, I would have put UTG on pocket nines or tens, which means that I have the best of it, even if he has a club. I wouldn't call it an, "Easy call," but I definitely would have called. In your case, it seems like it was an excellent fold...but I'm astounded that you were 100% confident of UTG's holdings.

Great story, though, thank you for sharing it! Burn the picture.

Not sure I’m following the math by Mission.

In the pot is: $18 + $15 + $15 + $50 + $450?

So $548 pot and $435 to call for you.

Let’s assume you trust your read to analyze the decision (I’m more of a range not read person, but it’s fine):

If the button folds you have to call $435 to win $548 and your hand is 46.84% to win and 1.99% to chop. That’s about $35 in EV to call.

If the button calls (I think you said he has another $100 behind) you have to call $435 to win $648. The button is drawing dead to the chop so that obviously improves the call. You have about $83 in EV to call.

Had I your reads, I would of thought an easy call. Not sure I would have had your reads though.

You know what—-I forgot that it’s against a definite loss if he folds, so he should have called. That’s quite an oversight, on my part, but I’d have called anyway.

Quote: ChallengedMilly

Full house is very possible but you rarely get genuine straight flush draws like this. I like get it in because I'm not the strongest long term player at an event like that. Poor strategy players need to take large calculated risks and that's a good spot to do it.
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Quote: Deucekies

I'd call. Even if UTG has the set, you have two shots at 17 outs. According to a calculator I pulled up, you win 45.56% of the time in that spot.
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For all the reasons above, not to mention it would have haunted me wondering whether I would have hit straight flush had I not folded, I probably would have called too.

And with the adrenaline flowing, I would have thought to myself, "Well, I am gambling, after all, so let's chase it..."

Having not been in the game, and knowing what I know from your story, I would have probably called in person. I would be too tempted with an open ended straight flush draw to not play it out.

In that spot, I’d probably think that I should call but I know it would be hard. Especially after grinding for a few hours, it’s demoralizing to lose a chunk at the end. I play poker at casinos maybe 2-3x/year so losing a big pot would sit with me longer. In my heart I’d probably know it’s right to call but hard to go through with it.

reminds me a bit of the WSOP ME hand the year Jamie Gold won. 3 handed one guy has OESF draw. Gold and the other player all in. Guy with OESF in pain. He was looking at like a $3mm jump from 3rd to 2nd. He folded. He would have won the pot if he called.

In a cash game, I call. In a tournament, I probably fold.