Ace
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May 2nd, 2018 at 3:31:09 PM permalink
I am new to all forms of poker but I just started playing this (practicing online first).

The strategy proposed by the Wizard is very easy to master, expect for the "less than 21 outs" rule. See the game and rules here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/

Here is an example. I have pocket 3s4d and the board is 10s, 10h, Qd, Jd, 9d.

I counted 19 outs: (Q+J + Nine) *3 + Tens * 2 + (A + K) * 4.

So I chose to call, but the game tells me the that's wrong play and I should fold.

What am I counting wrong? Sorry if my lingo is incorrect.
rdw4potus
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May 2nd, 2018 at 3:45:07 PM permalink
You're missing the 8 for the straight. Also pocket pairs and suited diamonds.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Ace
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May 2nd, 2018 at 3:58:49 PM permalink
Thanks, four eights bring the total to 23 and into fold territory. My rookie mistake.

However my understanding is the outs rule only counts the effect of single cards being dealt, not combinations, so the potential pocket pair or 2 to a flush would not factor in. I may be wrong.
Ibeatyouraces
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May 2nd, 2018 at 4:03:45 PM permalink
Quote: Ace

Thanks, four eights bring the total to 23 and into fold territory. My rookie mistake.

However my understanding is the outs rule only counts the effect of single cards being dealt, not combinations, so the potential pocket pair or 2 to a flush would not factor in. I may be wrong.


Actually it does. When counting single, as in a hole card games, you call with 10 (edit: or 11. Been so long I've forgotten) bad outs or less that either give you a win or push.
Last edited by: Ibeatyouraces on May 2, 2018
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odiousgambit
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May 3rd, 2018 at 1:30:32 AM permalink
If you had a pocket pair [other than a pair of two's], you should have raised 4x in the beginning. The 21 outs, which is simple and imperfect strategy anyway, is used when it is the last decision.

For the 21 outs, you count potential pairs, and not straights and flush possibilities, which is not to say they don't matter. To avoid the wrong play, you need to use a better strategy than the Wizard's ... he would agree with that I think.

Usually counting the outs, it is an end decision about whether your kicker is good enough. Using the Wizard strategy, you have to get a gut feeling about potential dealer straights and flushes and modify your decisions.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
CharmedQuark
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May 3rd, 2018 at 10:07:48 AM permalink
I think with this example, you play for the push. You are dead with your hole cards, so the board is all you got. Yes, your have 23 outs, but this is a paired board where the cutoff is 22 (actually 22.44) outs or less according to teliot. So you are sitting there with two bets (ante-blind) to protect. At 23 outs, to me it's almost a 50-50 shot - you get lucky or not. I always play for the push on these 'edgy' situations.
98Clubs
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May 3rd, 2018 at 12:59:10 PM permalink
Holding 3-4 off-suit?
Fold
You can be beaten by Ace, King, Queen, Jack, Ten, 9, 8
If Dealer is 7-high or less (no two diamonds) PUSH

Chances (23/45 + 22/44) Dealer wins, (22/45 + 16/44) Push
Looks like a negative EV

98
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
Ace
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May 3rd, 2018 at 3:25:37 PM permalink
Quote: 98Clubs

Holding 3-4 off-suit?
Fold
You can be beaten by Ace, King, Queen, Jack, Ten, 9, 8
If Dealer is 7-high or less (no two diamonds) PUSH

Chances (23/45 + 22/44) Dealer wins, (22/45 + 16/44) Push
Looks like a negative EV

98

How can you get beaten by 8?
odiousgambit
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May 3rd, 2018 at 3:30:04 PM permalink
i thought you meant you had pocket 3s, i.e. a pair of 3s ... and kind of ignored the rest that didnt make sense

if you mean 3 of spades and 4 of diamonds is what you held, I have no idea why you would think there was some prayer counting outs. There must be something I am not getting.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
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May 3rd, 2018 at 4:11:33 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

i thought you meant you had pocket 3s, i.e. a pair of 3s ... and kind of ignored the rest that didnt make sense

if you mean 3 of spades and 4 of diamonds is what you held, I have no idea why you would think there was some prayer counting outs. There must be something I am not getting.

Maybe I’m not getting it. I’m new to this.

My understanding is that I’m playing the board and my pocket 3-4 is inconsequential. Lowest card on the board is 9 so excluding the potential straight there are 19 outs.
It’s all about making that GTA
odiousgambit
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May 3rd, 2018 at 4:35:42 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Maybe I’m not getting it. I’m new to this.

My understanding is that I’m playing the board and my pocket 3-4 is inconsequential. Lowest card on the board is 9 so excluding the potential straight there are 19 outs.



yep, you're right

it's just a case where the strategy is too simple in the face of the possible straight I think.

sorry, I added more confusion than anything
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
beachbumbabs
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May 3rd, 2018 at 5:49:46 PM permalink
You really do have to count the 8s and fold. A one-card hit should be among your considerations. 23 against you is too many.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ace2
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May 3rd, 2018 at 5:59:43 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

You really do have to count the 8s and fold. A one-card hit should be among your considerations. 23 against you is too many.

A one card hit ?
It’s all about making that GTA
Benjiex
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May 6th, 2018 at 5:23:48 PM permalink
There is no way it could be a one card hit
Ibeatyouraces
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beachbumbabs
May 6th, 2018 at 5:39:42 PM permalink
Quote: Benjiex

There is no way it could be a one card hit


In the OP, if the dealer has 8,2 offsuit, you lose to a one card hit.
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Ace2
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May 6th, 2018 at 6:35:48 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

In the OP, if the dealer has 8,2 offsuit, you lose to a one card hit.

Dealer 8,2 would be a push.
It’s all about making that GTA
Ibeatyouraces
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May 6th, 2018 at 6:37:52 PM permalink
Quote: Ace

I am new to all forms of poker but I just started playing this (practicing online first).

The strategy proposed by the Wizard is very easy to master, expect for the "less than 21 outs" rule. See the game and rules here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/

Here is an example. I have pocket 3s4d and the board is 10s, 10h, Qd, Jd, 9d.

I counted 19 outs: (Q+J + Nine) *3 + Tens * 2 + (A + K) * 4.

So I chose to call, but the game tells me the that's wrong play and I should fold.

What am I counting wrong? Sorry if my lingo is incorrect.


8,2 would give the dealer a straight. And you a loss.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
beachbumbabs
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May 6th, 2018 at 6:55:36 PM permalink
one card hit: I'm talking about any potential straight or flush on the board, where a card that completes them is not already among the dealer's outs. The 8 completing a straight is the perfect example.

You should not count dealer having to use both their cards to make a hand in counting outs. There might be a AK975 rainbow on the board. You have a Jx. There are 19 outs the dealer has with a single card. Bet the jack. When the dealer shows up with 6-8o, s$!# happens. You were still correct in betting the J.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
zrlcsx
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May 13th, 2018 at 7:08:30 AM permalink
Quote: CharmedQuark

I think with this example, you play for the push. You are dead with your hole cards, so the board is all you got. Yes, your have 23 outs, but this is a paired board where the cutoff is 22 (actually 22.44) outs or less according to teliot. So you are sitting there with two bets (ante-blind) to protect. At 23 outs, to me it's almost a 50-50 shot - you get lucky or not. I always play for the push on these 'edgy' situations.




Who is the teliot you mention?
Chuck
PapaChubby
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May 13th, 2018 at 8:18:53 AM permalink
There is something which is not being addressed in this thread, and it has me curious. The Wizard's strategy says to make the 1x bet if there are less than 21 dealer outs that beat you. I infer (maybe incorrectly) that the alternative to being beaten in this case is (usually) to win. However, in the OP's example, the player has no chance to win and is strictly playing for a push. Since the reward for a favorable outcome is diminished, it seems to me that a risk-reward analysis would recommend a fold even if the dealer has considerably fewer outs. I think. Does this make sense?
Ibeatyouraces
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May 13th, 2018 at 8:33:53 AM permalink
What many players don't see, is you have to look at the ante/blind bet as if they are the pot in a live Holdem game. Those bets are no longer your money and are in the pot you're trying to win.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
CharmedQuark
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May 13th, 2018 at 9:50:29 AM permalink
reply to zrlcsx - - I think I know who it is, but not 100% sure. Others here may know for sure.
Ibeatyouraces
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May 13th, 2018 at 9:53:57 AM permalink
Quote: zrlcsx

Who is the teliot you mention?



This is him:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.888casino.com/blog/apheat/all-apheat-posts%3famp
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zrlcsx
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May 13th, 2018 at 1:08:01 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

What many players don't see, is you have to look at the ante/blind bet as if they are the pot in a live Holdem game. Those bets are no longer your money and are in the pot you're trying to win.




Another way to look at it is: What loss percentage is required to break even?

With a paired board and you can beat the board (dealer qualifies you win ante and play)
- only need to win 1 in 5 to break even or 80%
5 folds loses 5*2 or -10 units
5 bets with 4 losses (-4*3) and one win (1*2) also loses 10 units (-12+2 = 10)

With an unpaired board (dealer doesn't qualify and you only win ante)
- only need to win 1 in 4 to break even or 75%
4 folds loses 4*2 or -8 unitsins
4 bet with 3 loses (-3*3) and one win (1*1) also loses 8 units (-9 +1)

Playing the board (you can only push)
- only need to win 1 in 3 to break even or 66.7%
3 folds loses 3*2 or -6 units
3 bets with 2 losses (-2*3) and one push (1*0) also loses 6 units (-6+0)
Chuck
beachbumbabs
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May 13th, 2018 at 1:46:25 PM permalink
Quote: PapaChubby

There is something which is not being addressed in this thread, and it has me curious. The Wizard's strategy says to make the 1x bet if there are less than 21 dealer outs that beat you. I infer (maybe incorrectly) that the alternative to being beaten in this case is (usually) to win. However, in the OP's example, the player has no chance to win and is strictly playing for a push. Since the reward for a favorable outcome is diminished, it seems to me that a risk-reward analysis would recommend a fold even if the dealer has considerably fewer outs. I think. Does this make sense?



I'm pretty sure the calculation that resulted in the 21out rule took pushes into consideration, as well as dealer not qualifying (in the OP example, dealer qualifies with the board 10s, but in general). If the OP example did not include 4 to an inside or outside straight, it would be correct to play for the push. As it is, the 4 8s outstanding make the count 23, and recommend a fold.

As said above, there is value (computed into the 21 out rule) in playing 1 to save 2, because of the Blind. In other circumstances (no board pair), you may still rescue the Ante, which has some value, though it could be argued it's a wash if you lose the Play anyway.

Fold, you always lose Ante +Blind. The 21out rule saves under only slightly advantageous rules, and at their lowest are well below a 50% chance of success. But pay just often enough to be +ev when compared to folding, even though you incur additional risk with the Play.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
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