DeathMatch for 10K: paisiello v. anonimuss (split from Betting When Small Blind)
Quote: PeterMorrisI draw suited 5-4. I have an EV of -0.0125.
You're getting this number assuming that everyone checks it down all the way to the river. Something that usually doesn't happen.
Quote: PeterMorris...But what if I'm small blind? Does that make a difference? Has the EV become positive?
Doesn't change at all pre-flop. What you are hoping for is that the flop will change the odds dramatically and that everyone will automatically call all your bets and raises. Again something that usually doesn't happen.
My opinion is that you want to play this type of hand very rarely and only then in late position and only then if you have a positive image at the table. Then I would suggest to play it aggressively representing it as a big pocket pair. Essentially play it as a bluff or semi-bluff where one of three things happen:
1) the bluff works and you take a moderately sized pot
2) the bluff fails and you lose a moderately sized pot but then it sets up the next hand where you actually do have the nuts
3) you happen to get extra extra lucky and 5-4 suited actually flops the nuts where you have a chance to get all of your opponents chips
And even then, when you do hit it and bet, what happens? Everyone folds? Wait, that wasn't supposed to happen! They were supposed to pay me off! Don't those idiots know how to play poker???
Bad expected value play (but no so in a limit game).
Quote: paisielloExcept the probability of "hitting the flop good" is very unlikely. You're wasting money over many hands to get that one hit.
And even then, when you do hit it and bet, what happens? Everyone folds? Wait, that wasn't supposed to happen! They were supposed to pay me off! Don't those idiots know how to play poker???
Bad expected value play (especially so in a limit game).
First of all it's 11-1 odds. Second of all, no limit hold em poker has very little to do with ev pre flop, it's about implied odds and this is about as good a play you can find. Anybody folding here should never play poker again.
Quote: anonimussFirst of all it's 11-1 odds. Second of all, no limit hold em poker has very little to do with ev pre flop, it's about implied odds and this is about as good a play you can find. Anybody folding here should never play poker again.
Yes, the pot odds are 11:1 but what kind of hand are you trying to hit?
Some probabilities of hitting the flop with suited connectors:
Two pair 2.00%
Trips 1.30%
Straight 1.30%
Flush 0.80%
Full house 0.10%
Total 5.50% = 1 in 17.2 probability
Furthermore, in a cash game there's a rake so this actually reduces the pot odds considerably. So it's a bad bet.
Now you talk about implied odds: first, why would you expect them 100% of the time to pay you off? It won't happen nearly enough to make it worth playing. Secondly, with multiple people in the hand there is a good chance that they will still out flop you even if you hit something.
In a No Limit game, however, you are completely out of position and susceptible to any kind of semi-bluff. For example, let's say the flop comes:
4, 5, A rainbow
You bet the pot and one of the limpers shoves. Do you call? They might only have A,J or maybe they have A,4 or maybe they flopped a set or maybe they have 6,7. Do you risk your entire stack on this?
You are essentially susceptible to the same implied odds that your opponents are. In order for implied odds to really work you need to be sure that your hand is the nuts and that your opponent is going to pay you off 100% of the time. These are big assumptions in a No Limit game.
Quote: PeterMorris
A six player game. Small blind is 1 coin, big blind is 2 coins.
Playing means that I bet 2 coins for a chance of winning 12 coins.
But what if I'm small blind? I've already put in 1 coin. It's a sunk cost. I won't get it back if I fold.
If I bet, I only have to bet 1 coin for a chance of winning 12.
He's in the small blind, there are 4 limpers and he has to put in half a bet to see the flop with the BB yet to act.
Quote: Tomspur...you have alreayd antied up "1-coin", why not see a flop?
Because it is a -ve expected value and in the long run it will cost you money. I assume by the same logic that you would also recommend to call from the BB a minimum raise?
What you can do is every time you have a marginal hand to call with in the SB or BB, just make a note of it. At the end of the session add up all the times and see how much money you have spent. You'll find that it is quite a lot of money and very unlikely will have won any big hands with it.
Best advice which I think most poker pros will tell you is only play this type of hand in late position and raise it pre-flop to represent a big hand. This should be a rare move and only then if you have a good table image.
More importantly, you generally want to build up an image as a nit so that when you do have an opportunity to bluff or semi-bluff you can take down more hands without having any callers. If your opponents see you folding a lot and only playing premium hands this helps build up a good image to set them up with later.
Quote: anonimussScared nits are the easiest money in poker.
And that's the image I want you to have of me when I end up taking all your money.
Quote: Lemieux66There's a balance. You can make SOME money if you hit your hand here. Not stack someone all the time but you can get some calls.
Not enough to justify the call every time. Like I said, just keep a personal log of how many hands you played this way and figure out how much it cost you at the end of your sessions.
Quote: Lemieux66Here's a question: for those who are folding in this spot, what kinds of hands are you calling with here?
I'm almost never calling in this spot. I will either raise or fold.
That being said, sometimes (but not too often) I will call with some hands to try and catch those people who like to limp in with hands like suited connectors. For example, sometimes I will call with any pocket pair, suited ace, or two cards that will give me broadway draws. I might even slow play a big premium hand to catch loose players with (but rarely do this).
And at the end of the day, very rarely, I might actually play suited connectors or some other similar garbage. I think the golden rule in poker is not to be predictable. Get your opponents to make bad plays because they think you are strong when you are weak and you are weak when you are strong.
Quote: Lemieux66You will lose a dollar a lot of the time. But you will also win your share of pots. The real reason to call is there are all those limpers. More money in the pot, more people who can make mistakes, etc
And more people who can beat you, too. In the long run your wins will not offset the costs.
Quote: IbeatyouracesThose are cards Negreanu loves.
Does he always call with them in the small blind? I would be surprised if he did.
Quote: Lemieux66What exactly can you flop here that you can't get away from that isn't considered a good hand? Two pair is good. Low straight is good. You have to be cautious hitting trips because of bad kicker but you can get away if you're smart.
I already outlined scenarios previously here:
Calling SB in NL
The main reason not to play this hand is that you are out of position and easily exploitable.
Quote: paisielloCalling if the wrong play. It is a long time money loser.
Did you ever actually play poker?
Quote: Lemieux66True. I can't fold bottom fold pair under any circumstances. I don't think you know thing one about cash poker.
Poker in general, not just cash games. Doesn't understand 6 handed v 9 handed adjustments, implied odds, anything. Under certain circumstances it's theoretically correct to call with KK if you see the other guys cards and he has AA.
Quote: anonimussPoker in general, not just cash games. Doesn't understand 6 handed v 9 handed adjustments, implied odds, anything.
Since that's what we have been talking about the whole time I think you don't fully understand the subject.
I hope that unbiased readers of this thread realize that people who give advice based on what they've read on an internet forum can't be construed as credible.
First thing to do is to define exactly what the terms are.
Quote: Lemieux66Umm, I'm a successful cash game player for the last 5 years. I'm a respected AC grinder reg.
I live in Toms River now. Vernon before. I've played AC quite a bit until about 18 months ago.
Quote: Lemieux66Umm, I'm a successful cash game player for the last 5 years. I'm a respected AC grinder reg.
Umm, are you a professional player that maximizes their primary source of income?
Quote: anonimussYou just got the terms. Work on comprehension. I told you I'll post the money first. You keep dodging not me. I'm not interested in going back and forth with you. I'm interested in posting the money.
I'm afraid you're the one that needs to work on your comprehension. No where have you stated exactly what position you want to bet on. Once you you do that in detail then i'll consider whether to bet you.
Quote: Lemieux66Nice. I'm here nearly every week.
Funny thing is I haven't been to AC since I moved to Toms River. I used to play 7C Stud and some NLHE at the Trop and LHE and NLHE at the Borg. Minimal scattered play everywhere else.
Quote: paisielloI'm afraid you're the one that needs to work on your comprehension. No where have you stated exactly what position you want to bet on. Once you you do that in detail then i'll consider whether to bet you.
Reread my posts again and again until you answer your questions and stop wasting my time now.
When you're ready we can send the Wizard $1K each, let him read this thread and set the terms. Just post when you're ready and I'll send my end first.
I am going off the books I've read and the professional players I know personally. They just wouldn't play the way you play. I mean you are the type of player I want to play against: easy to bust for playing predictably bad or marginal hands.
I do believe that Books and even pros will discourage others from playing low SS connectors. Most of that advice is directed at people just learning the game of A B C poker. An A B C poker player shouldn't get involved playing SS connectors in early position. If you are free thinking and creative and want to be a great poker player. Folding 45 SS from early with no raises, is generally a bad move.
Who do you think is the tightest top pro?
Pasi, someone asked you, if you actually played much poker. You implied that you read lots of poker books. I'm not sure you answered the question.
I have never read a complete poker book, I will take a lie detector test regarding that. I will publicly challenge you to a heads up No limit cash game 3k Min buy in more if you wish, I'm flexible with the blind structure . I cant get a few poker rooms to deal it for time and no rake. If you don't like heads up. I will challenge you to ring game situation, where we play the same amount of time and start with the same amount of money. Who ever wins more at the end of the session wins. We will make the rules so you can never play low SS connectors in early position, and I will always play them in un-raised pots, raised pots if I wish.
Thinking more about this instead of the NL we could make it Pot limit, and have some rule restrictions for you on low SS connectors and some musts for me.
To the person who talked about chip stack. I agree that chip size matters however, I disagree with you when you say that having only A $10 chip stack in this situation would make this a fold. I think having only $10 in this spot would also make this a a good play. You will most likely get full odds on your $10 from all the players. The hand cant cost you more then $10. You get to see all the cards and can't be forced out.
How can you disagree with that statement? that's insane.Quote: Lemieux66I respectfully agree with you sir.
Quote: AxelWolfHow can you disagree with that statement? that's insane.
Lol I respectfully agreed!
Quote: paisielloMaybe a shark or two as well..?
I am going off the books I've read and the professional players I know personally. They just wouldn't play the way you play. I mean you are the type of player I want to play against: easy to bust for playing predictably bad or marginal hands.
Exactly what spots are you busting me with? I mean really. When you hit, you HIT. When you miss, you MISS. When you get bottom pair, you can fold easily. You are not busting me if I'm deep and I have draw. If we get stacks in on a draw vs the range you talk about, I PROMISE YOU I am ahead percentage wise.
Quote: AxelWolfWow I can't believe I missed this all this time. Pasisiello, I will take over this bet and lay out the full terms and start to contact the poker players. I don't think you will take the bet because, we all know, you know, you will probably lose this one. I'm certain this had is +EV for skilled players, even in the situation the OP described.
I do believe that Books and even pros will discourage others from playing low SS connectors. Most of that advice is directed at people just learning the game of A B C poker. An A B C poker player shouldn't get involved playing SS connectors in early position. If you are free thinking and creative and want to be a great poker player. Folding 45 SS from early with no raises, is generally a bad move.
Who do you think is the tightest top pro?
Pasi, someone asked you, if you actually played much poker. You implied that you read lots of poker books. I'm not sure you answered the question.
I have never read a complete poker book, I will take a lie detector test regarding that. I will publicly challenge you to a heads up No limit cash game 3k Min buy in more if you wish, I'm flexible with the blind structure . I cant get a few poker rooms to deal it for time and no rake. If you don't like heads up. I will challenge you to ring game situation, where we play the same amount of time and start with the same amount of money. Who ever wins more at the end of the session wins. We will make the rules so you can never play low SS connectors in early position, and I will always play them in un-raised pots, raised pots if I wish.
Thinking more about this instead of the NL we could make it Pot limit, and have some rule restrictions for you on low SS connectors and some musts for me.
To the person who talked about chip stack. I agree that chip size matters however, I disagree with you when you say that having only A $10 chip stack in this situation would make this a fold. I think having only $10 in this spot would also make this a a good play. You will most likely get full odds on your $10 from all the players. The hand cant cost you more then $10. You get to see all the cards and can't be forced out.
Here's the Cliffs for you:
Pas: "I'll take your money."
Anon: "Put up."
Pas: "I know you are but what am I?"
Wouldn't bet with tomorrows newspaper.
Quote: AxelWolfHow can you disagree with that statement? that's insane.
LOL that is not a spelling error
Ace Poker Drills Poker Equity Calculator
Board:
Equity Win Tie Hand Range
20.5277% 20.514% 0.0137% [ 5h4h ]
21.616% 21.6023% 0.0137% [ AdKd ]
17.4284% 17.4147% 0.0137% [ TcTs ]
18.7448% 18.7311% 0.0137% [ QcJc ]
13.0933% 13.0796% 0.0137% [ 7c7s ]
8.5899% 8.5762% 0.0137% [ 9d8d ]
