WSOP Player Folds Four of a Kind

Did someone not mention that Morgan refused to disclose the hand out of, "Respect for his opponent." If I'm going to read between the lines on that, to me, it reads, "He's a good player, I didn't want to make him look like an idiot."

I could be wrong, though.

Day One. He thought he was beat and laid down quads. Who on this forum
besides Stephen and Switch is qualified to judge his action ?
And Stephen has already spoken.
Opinions are like assholes, everybodys got one .

I fully understand that he thought he was beat, the question is, was he beat? I don't even think the question is whether or not you should fold if you think you are beat, of course you should, the question is whether or not he should have thought he was beat.

I'm also not judging anyone, we're on a gambling Forum where we give opinions about gambling-related matters, and being a professional poker player (while certainly adding weight to one's opinion) is not a prerequisite for offering an opinion and attempting to defend it, here. If being a professional anything were a prerequisite, I'd have been evicted a long time ago. I'm an admitted, "Slots first," player and my first thread/post was about a Blackjack system!!!

I'm interested in what Switch has to say, as well. I also understand the nature of opinions being comparable to that of rectal cavities, however, we've got nearly forty rectal cavities vs. one on the poll saying that he should have called it.

I will gladly eat a hoagie consisting of only bread and fecal matter in July if I am proven wrong. I will enter this thread and publicly announce my incorrectness and state that all of my poker opinions should be taken with a grain of salt, because they should anyway! I'm a decent poker player when it comes to the probabilities and odds-based plays, I can't read other players for crap, but I usually make a few bucks at the poker table. I've never claimed to be a world-beater because I'm not, I'm slightly better than your average local, "Regular," whittling away his Tuesday evening at a low-limit table. I've performed well in a tournament or two, but they've not been serious (major) tournaments.

I have presented my opinion and I have attempted to defend it, however, I apologize if you find that fact offensive.

" I fully understand that he thought he was beat, the question is, was he beat? "

I found nothing offensive in any of your postings. Was just stating that everybody has an opinion on this.

But the fact remains he thought he was beat . In that case he has to fold. Particularly on Day one of a

Million Dollar Entry Tournament. The key word is TOURNAMENT.

I just place a slightly higher value on Stephen and Switch's opinion.

Sort of a " Been there, done that " point of view" .

There are many, many people who are qualified to judge him. Just because he has a million dollars to enter a Tournament doesn't mean he's a good player. He most likely made a mistake. Being a millionaire doesn't exclude you from bad play or mistakes. He definitely did not know his opponent had a straight flush. At best it was a hunch, with the actual chances of the hunch being true being very low.

The fact that he did lay that hand down and then didn't make the final table money lends a little more credibility to the possibility he should have played out the hand, as the reason he most like would give for laying it down would be to have a chance to make the final table.

To me he played scared. We'll see what the true result would have been for the hand in a few weeks, but something tells me had he played the hand and won that he still wouldn't have had a chance to win the whole thing and would have been lucky to make the final table.

Zcore13

Wow, wish I had that ability to judge a player I have never seen play. And I am thrilled to learn that if you do not make the final table, that validates you played a hand on day 1 wrong.

Can I back YOU in the next WSOP !

Quote: Zcore13

I've been playing Poker for 25 years and dealing/supervising it for 6. Folding quads was a terrible decision. Given that situation over and over again there is no doubt you would win FAR more times than lose. Most likely he was up agains the nut flush or full house, with the other guy having pocket K's J's or 7"s. It may turn out to be ok for him on this hand, but it was a bad play all in all.

Zcore13

OVER AND OVER AGAIN. How many million dollar entry fee Tournaments do you think there are ?

You would win far more times than you lose. And every time you lose, your tournament life is over.

In this instance on Day 1. You can never win a tournament on Day 1, but you can sure as hell lose it.

The man though he was beat End of discussion !

Quote: Zcore13

We'll see what the true result would have been for the hand in a few weeks,

Really?
The table did not have cameras for the hole cards, at least when I watched live on day 2 and day 3.


Quad folder should have called.

At best the all in player had a flush or full house, no sflush, and many think maybe just an all out bluff.
His later comments and body language gave that away

" His later comments and body language gave that away "

I must have missed that in Caro's Book of Tells. Do you work as a profiler for the FBI ?

Naw.
I think that is BruceZ over at 2+2

My question.

Why show you are folding quads?
That is the stupid part of all his actions

He did not finish in the money, I am sure the others just ran over him.
We all would

" We all would "

Sure you would. He probably folded every time he was raised after that. LOL

Buzz, in case you didn't notice, this is a forum to discuss things and for people to give opinions. When you commented on a different thread "Hopefully those tacky picture of Frank and the Rat Pack will disappear.", is it a fact that the picture is tacky, or is that your opinion?

Get off your high horse and agree or disagree with the points being made, but to say nobody can judge on a discussion fourm just makes you sound dumb.

Zcore13

Quote: buzzpaff

He probably folded every time he was raised after that. LOL

Not really.
On Day 2 Mikhail Smirnov knocked out 2 pros, Daniel Negreanu and Tom Dwan with quad 9s in the same hand while all 3 were all-in!
(wsop updates)
I missed that hand!

I hope WSOP had cameras on that hand.
I do not think they did.

Quote: Wizard

I want to say that I would have called also. I think the other guy had two spades, one of them the ace, for a nut flush.

That is what I put the other player on too.

The quad folder said the all in guy "looked very excited on the turn" with the 8s.
and he had been "Morgan called quickly" on flop and "Morgan called instantly" on turn

Those that have a monster hand, play it out like their favorite pet just died and they really do not want to play any more and take their time in calling.
At least I do :)

Those that have nothing or just a draw, bet fast, IMO.

I say he had the Ace of spades and hit his nut flush and with with the Ks on the river wanted Smirnov to think he had something even bigger by going all in.

They better show that hand on TV.
All hands should have been filmed because of the $1 million buy-in

Quote: Zcore13

Buzz, in case you didn't notice, this is a forum to discuss things and for people to give opinions. When you commented on a different thread "Hopefully those tacky picture of Frank and the Rat Pack will disappear.", is it a fact that the picture is tacky, or is that your opinion?

Get off your high horse and agree or disagree with the points being made, but to say nobody can judge on a discussion forum just makes you sound dumb.

Zcore13

My opinion is the pictures are tacky. I have disagreed with most of the points being made by people on this thread. There is such a thing as EXPERT opinion and I believe the experts on this particular matter are Stephen and Switch.

I am just amazed at how many post are absolutely positive that the player made a mistake, can tell his opponent was bluffing by his body action 15 minutes later, etc.


And then there is this fact:

On Day 2 Mikhail Smirnov knocked out 2 pros, Daniel Negreanu and Tom Dwan with quad 9s in the same hand while all 3 were all-in!. I will state my viewpoint and place no extra value on it.

If the man thought he was beat, he had to fold. He did survive to knock out Daniel and Tom. Maybe, just maybe, he did the right thing by folding !!!

Yeah, I hope when they show "The Big One for One Drop" on TV they get the true story from these guys.

Mikhail Smirnov seems to know how to play the game from other articles and felt he was beat. So he folded.

The dealer should have used those 2 cards to lift the deck off the table, faced the deck quickly to him and looked to see what the cards were, then start to shuffle the deck a few times for the shuffle machine.

I would have

South Park is on and the pool water is 94 degrees
Later

I agree he MAY have done the right thing, I just don't think it's likely. Here's what I think happened...

Smirnov gets dealt 8h 8d in seat 2, he makes a small raise pre-flop Morgan in seat 3 and Dwan both call. If I'm Morgan the small raise pre-flop tells me Smirnov has a middle pair, AK, AQ or possibly strong connectors (suited or not). He has nothing too strong though so I call if I'm Morgan just to see the flop since I'm already in for the big blind. If Morgan has a strong pocket pair he re-raises. Morgan may have a weak pair two flush cards or connectors.

The flop comes 7s Js 8c. Smirnov bets $50,000. Morgan quickly calls the bet and Dwan folds. Morgan calling and not raising tells me he's open ended on a straight, has 4 to a flush or hit top pair. Any low pair just to see the flop gets folded. The $50,000 bet into someone who has 3.7 million in chips is a terrible bet for flopping three 8's. You're asking to get drawn out on with very little to risk with a straight and flush possible to come.

The turn comes 8s. Smirnov bets $200,000 with his quad 8's. Morgan calls quickly again. Morgan calling quickly tells me he did not hit the straight flush. He would have either raised slightly or if he's slow playing he hems and haws a little for show to try and extract more money from Smirnov on the river. I would also rule out the 7's full or 8's now along with the straight flush for Morgan. I'm thinking he hit a jack on the flop for top pair and had the Ace of Spades as well for the nut flush draw, but with a pair on the board and betting coming from Smirnov he thinks it's possible Smirnov has a two pair or three 8's.

The River comes Ks. Smirnov bets 700,000 with his four 8's. This is now just under 1,000,000 from Smirnov in bets, but he's played scared all the way through and he's given up the opportunity to put all the pressure of a call on Morgan with a very large or all in bet and given Morgan the chance to do the same to him. You never want to be in that position. It is a horrible feeling and you almost feel powerless. Morgan takes just a few seconds and calls "All In" for about 3.4 million in chips. I believe he has the nut flush and 100% believes he has Smirnov beat due to the light betting throughout. Smirnov finishes what he started and again plays week and folds after thinking for about 2 minutes. Morgan outplayed Smirnov all the way through. And to put the icing on the cake of weakness, Smirnov shows his quad 8's for some horrible reason. Another sign of terrible judgement

Afterwards Morgan refuses to divulge his hand and states "And the reason I am not going to reveal it is totally out of respect for my opponent" If he is being honest here, it's because he doesn't want to embarrass and bring on the %*#& storm on Smirnov that would inevitably follow if the world new for sure what he had pulled off. If he is that honest and he had the Straight Flush, he admits it.

From everything I've read there were no hole cameras at the table, which will make this hand go down in history aa the most amazing hand ever. Even if Morgan comes out sometime in the future and says he had the straight flush, there will be people who will say he's just saying that to be nice. Hell, there are people that still think Elvis is alive and hiding somewhere.

I would absolutely called. If the other guy had a SF then I'd say "congratulations and good for you." And then I would ask the tournament director if there was a "bad beat jackpot."

And since there isn't a bad beat jackpot I would go down in the books for having the bad beats of bad beats instead of going down in the books for being the guy who folded quads.

Now, which would you rather be? The guy with the claim to the bad beat, or the guy who folded quads?

Quote: Mission146

Did someone not mention that Morgan refused to disclose the hand out of, "Respect for his opponent." If I'm going to read between the lines on that, to me, it reads, "He's a good player, I didn't want to make him look like an idiot."

I could be wrong, though.

I like your thinking here. I agree with you. If he showed less than a SF it would humiliate the opponent.

All this talk about i would have, i wouldn't have....please keep in mind that this guy is a BILLIONAIRE and didn't get there by being an idiot.
Sure all the facts that are out now....what about the hours leading up to this situation?
Buzz is right...if you feel that you are beat...you fold.
On the other hand....only one hand beats you???
Break it down like this...The Russian makes Million dollar deals before most of us are out of bed...and he walks away from Million dollar deals all day long.
To say that this guy knows how to handle the pressure of the money, is an understatement.
Everyone here has made good points....but unless you have sat at a WSOP table and been in that type of situation, none of us can say anything.
I have sat at many WSOP tables...never been in that situation, but I have folded MONSTERS to what I thought was the only hand that could beat me.

Tournament facts:
48 players...28 pros...20 business men (not your typical bussines man...these guys are HUGE in thier world)
$18.3 mil...1st place
4 of the final 9 were BILLIONAIRE business men

These business men played so well because they know how to evaluate risk management better than most. Also msot of the pros had to get backers for this thing, the business men....payed for themselves. Anyone ever played with the added pressure of trying to cash for X amount of people? Phil Helmuth said even if he had won he would have only seen 15% of the $18.3 mil...after paying his backers.
I applaud the Russian for his fold....shows that sometimes...(get ready for it)..."you got to know when to hold-em and know when to fold-em"....couldn't help myself.

BusinessWeek Article goes into a bit more detail.
Its early on the first day after satellite rounds. Looks like the Trip 8's were bet and called. Checked the Quads, countered with check. The Ks River prompted Quads to bet, then got shoved by unkknown Morgan hand.

Different situation than a straight FZO or R&A occurring after a qualifier, and its early. I'm still calling the shove: its Quads.

Note that both Contestants did not cash.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I would absolutely called. If the other guy had a SF then I'd say "congratulations and good for you." And then I would ask the tournament director if there was a "bad beat jackpot."

And since there isn't a bad beat jackpot I would go down in the books for having the bad beats of bad beats instead of going down in the books for being the guy who folded quads.

Now, which would you rather be? The guy with the claim to the bad beat, or the guy who folded quads?

I would prefer to be known as the guy who laid down a hand when he felt he was beat. If you can not do that, your chance of winning such a tournament are ZERO !

Quote: 98Clubs

BusinessWeek Article goes into a bit more detail.
Its early on the first day after satellite rounds. Looks like the Trip 8's were bet and called. Checked the Quads, countered with check. The Ks River prompted Quads to bet, then got shoved by unkknown Morgan hand.

Different situation than a straight FZO or R&A occurring after a qualifier, and its early. I'm still calling the shove: its Quads.

Note that both Contestants did not cash.

QUADS< SCHMADS. Second best hand is just not good enough !

I'm hearing a good deal of, "This guy's a billionaire, it's a million-dollar buy-in," and other assorted comments concerning his decision. Non sequitur, at best. The aspect of this that people have to understand is that, while it may be a million dollar buy-in, the guy's not playing with scared money by any stretch, and the vast majority of us posting here would be...if we even had that kind of money!

The point of the matter is that they are playing a tournament and putting up basically the kind of money that at least gives a loss minimal meaning to them, it still means very little. There's really no difference between that and me driving over to The Meadows and entering the $50 buy-in NL Tournament. If nothing else, $50 could well mean more to me than a one with six zeroes after means to them, but probably not, I have the good fortune of $50 not meaning a whole lot to me.

I would answer to him being a billionaire by asking, "Did he become a billionaire by playing poker?" If not, then I don't really see how it is relevant. I am not sure of the number of people with access to a liquid million dollars, but I would imagine that the number is not insubstantial. That means that any of those people (including people who may well have never played in their lives) could have bought into that tournament. It is not a necessary prerequisite that they have ever earned a dime playing poker, and contrastly, they might have actually lost money in the course of their lives playing poker. If there were no losers in the world of poker, then there would be no professionals because everyone would just be even!

I'm not saying anything about his poker abilities, I truly have no idea as I have never heard of him prior to this, I'm just attacking what I have determined to be a non sequitur. Honestly, how do we even know that this guy is a better poker player than I am? He may well be, I'm not saying that, but he bought into this tournament with money earned elsewhere.

The question seems pretty simple to me, does being rich, in and of itself, make one a good poker player or tournament player? The answer is a pretty obvious, "No," to me, but again, I'm not saying he's not an excellent poker player. He may well be one of the best in the world, but if he is, it's not because he is wealthy from something else.

I already bet $60 to win $20 with Bob Dancer that Morgan did NOT have the straight flush. Regarding the other bet offers in this thread I'm going to politely decline either because I don't like the odds or I don't know the other party well enough.

Somebody probably already mentioned this, but I calculate that if Morgan did a pot odds calculation, he would have estimated that Smirnov had a greater than 66.1% chance of having the straight flush.

Quote: Wizard

I already bet $60 to win $20 with Bob Dancer that Morgan did NOT have the straight flush. Regarding the other bet offers in this thread I'm going to politely decline either because I don't like the odds or I don't know the other party well enough.

Somebody probably already mentioned this, but I calculate that if Morgan did a pot odds calculation, he would have estimated that Smirnov had a greater than 66.1% chance of having the straight flush.

I respect your decision not to place a bet with me regarding this because you don't know me from anyone else on the planet. Given the tremendous amount of respect I have for you, I just thought it would be cool (win or lose) to say I placed a bet with The Wizard. Hopefully, I will have the opportunity to meet you at a future WoVCon one day, and then, having met in person, you might be inclined to Prop bet something against me.

If I may ask, did you find my asking you to lay 7:1 against my bet that it was a Jacks-Up Full House reasonable?

I am not asserting the bankroll made him a better than average player. Nor does the $700,000 bet have more value than a 470 bet in a low entry tourney. Quite the opposite. I hate when announcers try to hype the game by calling, WOW he just called for $6 Million with a pair of 4's. When two players are left and each had a stack of 60 Million, that 6 million dollar bet is 10 percent of his bankroll period. No more than 10! If they had $60 each and the bet was $6 it's the same thing in a tournament.

Pot Odds do not enter into it with an ALL-IN BET. When you lose ,you are out. If you think you are beat, FOLD !!

deleted

Here is for the math ***** who says to call because of the small mathematical chance the opponent had a straight flush .

Calculate the odds on this:

In one of those insanely high-stakes games of no-limit hold'em in Las Vegas (the buy in was $100,000) Doyle Brunson looked at his hole cards and found a pair of aces. He bet strongly and was called by two players. The flop was ace, deuce, four, all of different suits, giving Brunson trip aces. Again he bet heavily ($25,000) and again both the other players called. Fourth street was a second deuce, so the board now looked like this: A-2-4-2. With his pair of aces in the hole, Brunson now had the strongest possible full house, aces over deuces. Nevertheless, he checked to see what would happen. Player A came out betting, and player B moved all in with a massive raise. Brunson thought for a long time, then folded his top full house. Player A called. The dealer dealt the last card, a second four, making: A-2-4-2-4. Both player had four of a kind: A had quad fours; B had quad deuces.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

If you can't make this call, yiu have no business playing to begin with.

As for the bets on here regarding the hand. Noone will ever know the truth. Whether he says he had the straight flush or not, noone will believe it to be true. The only people that are worse liars than poker players are politicians.

If you can not make this laydown, head for the door marked EXIT. Any damn fool can call with quad 8's LOL

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

The only people that are worse liars than poker players are politicians.

The only people that are better liars than poker players are politicians and Craps players.
And there are a few politicians that are Craps players.

I say the businessman John Morgan had AsJx
he was big blind
$12k was his bet (they were in level 4)

a pro leads out with a $32K bet (he has been raising, lots of action)
Morgan is an amateur poker player
would he really call that raise with a T9s?

I fold. No need to defend your BB.
But with AJ?
Yeah. Many ams love the Ace.

But, His hand kept getting better and he was betting (calling) his excitement at the flop and turn that gave him the nut flush.

Too bad we will never really know

deleted

Quote: 7craps

I say the businessman John Morgan had AsJx
he was big blind
$12k was his bet (they were in level 4)

a pro leads out with a $32K bet (he has been raising, lots of action)
Morgan is an amateur poker player
would he really call that raise with a T9s?

OK, Morgan was already in for $12K and needs only $20K to call a $74K pot. He had what, 3.5million in his stack.

Many like suited connectors in that position.
You have to call as Big Blind

I still say the Russian mis-read Morgan
But he did say he thought he was beat.

I remember watching the WPT with Lakers owner Jerry Buss heads up with a pro (?) and he kept folding his hands after being raised and came in second.
He kept saying he thought he was beat on every hand.

and he was not since we all saw his cards.

Quote: Wizard

I already bet $60 to win $20 with Bob Dancer that Morgan did NOT have the straight flush. Regarding the other bet offers in this thread I'm going to politely decline either because I don't like the odds or I don't know the other party well enough.

Somebody probably already mentioned this, but I calculate that if Morgan did a pot odds calculation, he would have estimated that Smirnov had a greater than 66.1% chance of having the straight flush.

OK Wizard,
I will have a bet of $20 to win $40 that Morgan did have the straight flush.

Quote: guido111

I still say the Russian mis-read Morgan
But he did say he thought he was beat.

As pointed out over at 2+2

IF the Russian thought he was beat, by the SF hit on the turn, why then bet the river.

He should have checked first. Instead he bets more than the pot.
That opened the door for the all-in shove IMO

This really sucks ESPN did not film this hand.

" IF the Russian thought he was beat, by the SF hit on the turn, why then bet the river.
"

He bet out 700k on the river, obviously he did not think he was beat at that time !!!!

2 + 2 equals 5 for the average poster on that forum.

deleted

Quote:

I already bet $60 to win $20 with Bob Dancer that Morgan did NOT have the straight flush. Regarding the other bet offers in this thread I'm going to politely decline either because I don't like the odds or I don't know the other party well enough.

Somebody probably already mentioned this, but I calculate that if Morgan did a pot odds calculation, he would have estimated that Smirnov had a greater than 66.1% chance of having the straight flush.

One of my thoughts regarding this is still unaccounted, that Morgan has either 9s, or Ts, and ignored the possible Quads by Smirnov. The shove is the wrong move at the wrong time, and catches Smirnov over-thinking the hand (reports are he spent some 2 minutes evaluating the situation.

" catches Smirnov over-thinking the hand (reports are he spent some 2 minutes evaluating the situation. "

OVERTHINKING ROFLMAO

A whole two minutes deciding when to call an all-in bet on the first day in a Million Dollar buy-in tournament>>

I hope I have the opportunity to throw away a 4oaK involving an inside pair against a possible Straight/Royal so I can be heralded as one of the Gods of Tournament Poker. If I knew so many people would revere me as such, I might even be inclined to toss it without hesitation.

No You have to show the hand and let all the " experts" ,who have never played in a WSOP event, tell you exactly what hand your opponent held. ROFLMAO

Quote: buzzpaff

No You have to show the hand and let all the " experts" ,who have never played in a WSOP event, tell you exactly what hand your opponent held. ROFLMAO

Touche'.

I would ask if a WSOP satellite counts, though. I'm just kidding, of course, I know it doesn't for the purposes of your statement.

I'd also defend myself by stating that I never claimed to know what his opponent held, I gave my opinion as to what I thought it was with supporting argument.

I did not read every post as this is a long thread. Also, I did not watch the poker game.

The players fold prolonged his time in this tourney if he had lost the hand. As importantly, how close was he to the money, or increase in payoff by folding. If this was a coin flip or worse by reading opponent, and maybe it was or was not, the fold was correct

This may have happened (or a combination of the following):

1. player read opponent for straight flush

2. player wanted to be safe and not risk an early exit

3. player may have wanted to get deeper in the $$

Big Pete

If you can not make this laydown, head for the door marked EXIT. Any damn fool can call with quad 8's LOL

Thank you Buzz....i ws hoping you said this before i did. Big lay downs and RISK MANAGMENT are what seperrates the pros from...us.

Pro's make laydowns this big every day. People are focused on Quad 8's. With that board quad 8's were the second NUT. No more/no less.

when will the wsop be shown on TV?

deleted

The million-dollar buy-in one? I believe it has already been broadcast. I could have swore I saw Hellmuth get knocked out just a few days ago.

Finished 4th IIRC.

That's right.

I guess we'll never definitively know about the hand in question. That's a shame. I was looking forward to having to publicly eat my words. Firing off my mouth they way I did and being proven wrong is always a good test of character.