tsmith
tsmith
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May 6th, 2012 at 1:33:54 PM permalink
I'm surprised with all this talk of the Derby that nobody mentioned that contest where a man won $100,000, with the stipulation that he had to bet it all on one horse.

According to this article he was going to put it on Kelso, but he changed his mind and went with Alpha, a 20-to-1 shot (that dropped to 18-to-1 once his bet was registered). http://beyondthebets.com/2012/05/05/joel-einhorns-100000-bet-on-alpha-doesnt-deliver-ill-have-another-wins-138th-kentucky-derby/

What would any of you have done? Gone with a longshot hoping to collect a cool 2 mil because, as Mr. Einhorn said, it wasn't his money he was risking, or would you have bet on the favorite, hoping to at least double your found fortune? Go for broke or play it safe? I know it's difficult to say now, but try to answer the way you would have yesterday morning ... or next year, in case they have the contest again.
fremont4ever
fremont4ever
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May 6th, 2012 at 3:25:52 PM permalink
Quote: tsmith

I'm surprised with all this talk of the Derby that nobody mentioned that contest where a man won $100,000, with the stipulation that he had to bet it all on one horse.

According to this article he was going to put it on Kelso, but he changed his mind and went with Alpha, a 20-to-1 shot (that dropped to 18-to-1 once his bet was registered). http://beyondthebets.com/2012/05/05/joel-einhorns-100000-bet-on-alpha-doesnt-deliver-ill-have-another-wins-138th-kentucky-derby/

What would any of you have done? Gone with a longshot hoping to collect a cool 2 mil because, as Mr. Einhorn said, it wasn't his money he was risking, or would you have bet on the favorite, hoping to at least double your found fortune? Go for broke or play it safe? I know it's difficult to say now, but try to answer the way you would have yesterday morning ... or next year, in case they have the contest again.



NBC has done this for the last few years; I guess it's old hat now.

My decision would have been easy; I would put the money on the horse that I felt had the best chance to win. Most times that would be the favorite, but not this time around. I would have shot the wad on BODEMEISTER and gone nuts when he couldn't hold it down the stretch.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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May 7th, 2012 at 6:57:22 AM permalink
Quote: fremont4ever

Quote: tsmith

I'm surprised with all this talk of the Derby that nobody mentioned that contest where a man won $100,000, with the stipulation that he had to bet it all on one horse.



NBC has done this for the last few years; I guess it's old hat now.


This is the third year they have done this; the first year, the bettor won over $800,000. Note that it takes a little time to make the bet, as the machines can't handle individual bets over a certain amount, and I think you can't have more than five bets on a ticket; if the limit is $500/bet, that's 40 tickets that have to be printed out.

As for who you pick, I agree - pick the horse you think will win. Remember, all of the longshots have one thing in common; they all pay zero if the favorite wins.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 7th, 2012 at 9:22:10 AM permalink
Correct, bet who you think will win.

I would have probably gone with Bodemeister if I had the 100K. He wasn't the favorite all day, but a ton of late money poured in on him and he ended up being the slight favorite over Union Rags.

With Bodemeister, you knew he would be on the lead at the end, the question would be if he could hold on. He didn't.
JW17
JW17
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May 9th, 2012 at 2:52:17 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

Name it ! CC is just another California horse with no real edge, even there !



Well CC finished 5th, Gem finshed 16th. You were right on one thing, CC wouldnt finish in the top 3.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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May 9th, 2012 at 3:08:21 PM permalink
Betting against any horse finishing in the top 3 in a field of 20 is stealing. 3 years old horses are
like teenage boys. But Bodie may be a man among boys. What a great race ! A lock in the
Preakness and no big surprise if he wins 2/3 rds of the Triple Crown.
JW17
JW17
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May 9th, 2012 at 3:13:24 PM permalink
I agree that Bode should/most likely win the Preakness. No chance at the Belmont, I bet he doesnt even show up. It will be someone wierd, like usual
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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May 9th, 2012 at 3:32:49 PM permalink
I beg to differ. He will show up and from time to time everyone falls asleep and the leader goes out in 1:16 and change for 6f. LOL
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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May 9th, 2012 at 3:36:17 PM permalink
Just when everybody thought there might not ever be another Triple Crown winner—the tremendous growth in the number of foals was frequently cited as a reason—along came Secretariat.

To provide a perspective on his 31-length 1973 Belmont Stakes victory in a world record 2:24, consider that the next-fastest winners, Easy Goer in '89 and A.P. Indy in '92, went in 2:26, the equivalent of ten lengths slower.
JW17
JW17
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May 18th, 2012 at 12:53:05 PM permalink
On to the Preakness, but Im putting a lot on a LONG shot in the Black Eyed Susan.

The 5 - Oaks Lily

If Pimlico is fair or a closing track today, She wins this thing. ML 30-1.

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