Horse Racing

I want to evaluate some basic horse racing betting strategies in terms of EV ie. (Favorite to show, Long-Shot to win, etc.) Does anyone know a good place to find this data particularly the odds and payoffs? Also does anyone else have some good strategies to look at?

try this for starters:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/racetrack-betting/

You can't determine "odds" of a horse for place and show bets easily, since they depend on which other horses finish in the top two/three. You need to know how much money was bet to place and show on each horse in that race.

If you want to limit it to results based on odds to win, I think Daily Racing Forms have that information in their results listings, but I don't know how easy it is to find back issues. A number of newspapers may still list detailed results of races, which would include the horses' odds.

equibase.com is a good tool

I've been trying to figure out some stuff over the last 18 months or so, and you can't make money on favorites, and you can't make money on longshots.

The way to win is to find horses that are undervalued and put them in exotics - Exactas, Trifectas, Pick-4, so on. These are going to generally fall into the 4-1 to 15-1 category.

How do you find horses that are undervalued? I think the only way is to actually watch them run - trip handicapping. And I don't have time for it. If you do, you can make money.

Horse race handicapping can be as simple or as complicated as you would like to make it, and, with good "angles," one can be consistently successful anywhere on the "simple-to-complicated" scale.

Because of it's complexity, there are no "true odds" in horse racing. In addition to the myriad statistics to consider, there are a lot of unknown variables that do not appear in the "charts."

Horses are not machines -- they have good days and bad, energetic moods and lazy/apathetic moods (and frightened moods). Younger horses are sometimes intimidated by more experienced horses. Horses can be sick or hurting during a race, and most people will not be aware of such suffering. Those adept at "physical" handicapping (judging the horses on sight, just before the race) have a significant edge over those who bet in ignorance of the horses' conditions.

In addition to the pre-race state of the horse, there are the unknown variables of the intention and skill of the "third man" -- the trainer and/or jockey, and/or owner. For various (and sundry) reasons, not all trainers, owners and jockeys want their horse to win a particular race. There frequently is no way to know the intention of these "connections," and consequently, the statistics of many second-tier and third-tier trainers and jockeys are unreliable.

Then, of course, there are the rest of the racing statistics to consider. There can be numerous statistical considerations. Typically, a past performance data chart (PP) used in handicapping software includes over 1400 data fields per horse in every race. Here is a sample of a standard Bris PP data file for one day at one track (the file is a "zipped," with comma delimited values inside). Equibase is the source of most racing statistics.

By the way, the horse with the fastest speed on record often does not win the race.

In spite of all of this complexity, it is not too difficult to find handicapping software or some strategy that will yield at least a 30% win rate. A 30% win rate doesn't mean you will profit -- you will average a 30% win rate if you bet the favorite (the "chalk") on every race, but you will lose money in doing so. The trick is to combine a good win rate with bets that pay more than the favorite, which brings up another complication of handicapping: the other bettors.

When one bets in parimutuel horse racing pools, one is not betting against a "house;" one is betting against the other bettors. Sure, the track and the government (and other "interests") get a significant and consistent portion of the pool (the "take"), but the payoff on your bet is largely influenced by which horse everyone else bets. Next time you are at the track or race book, notice how the odds fluctuate -- the payoffs change with the variances in betting.

I think most tracks get over 16% of the pools. The fairness of such a large take is a matter for another discussion. However, some ADW (advance deposit wagering) sites give rebates/rewards for quantity betting, which reduces the take. As I recall, Premier Turf Club boasted a take as low as 7% for those betting over $3,000 per month, after rebates.

There are jurisdictions in which betting on horse racing is made through bookies (not through parimutuel pools). Recently, "betting exchange" web sites have appeared, such as Betfair and eHorseX, in which one basically bets directly against another individual bettor.

In regards to good strategies, it would probably best to hit the Internet forums, and read a few books.

One very active site is paceadvantage.com. As the name suggests, the site is frequented by those who value the factor of pace performance of horses in the different parts of a race, but a lot of other theories and approaches are discussed.

Another interesting site is e-ponies.com run by Liam Durbin. Its forum is less active than paceadvantage.com, but, on occasion, a startlingly insightful contribution appears from a racing insider. The site also provides web access to the "One Click Pony" software that Liam Durbin uses to generate his picks which are published in several newspapers across the USA. One can upload Bris PPs files to the web software and set desired biases to the factors of: speed; class; form; connections; morning line odds; jockey change; equipment change; and weight change. By the way, these are basic statistical factors to consider in horse race handicapping, and "class" and "form" are the most difficult to assess.

Ed Bain provides free "web PPs" at his site (see the "Track Index" on the left side). Notable stats are highlighted in various colors.

If you know how to use a spreadsheet, you might visit the Excel Spreadsheet Handicapping Forum. As the web site states, it is "For the thoroughbred handicapper who prefers Excel as their platform." It discusses ways to handicap using PPs in spreadsheet programs, and some useful templates are posted.

There are a lot of other sites and books to peruse, and it would be wise to study a few strategies before settling on one.

One of my methods is to use the free picks from e-ponies.com (and from other sites) to decide on a few contenders, and then physical handicap the contenders during the post parade just before the race.

Hope this helps!

Before I play in a poker tourney, I always sit in the race book and bet the ponies. I go first by name. Who couldn't put money on beergoggles? Then I look at the odds both predicted and live. I then always bet a dollar exacta box on 2 that I like. I win some I lose most but man does the hour fly before the tourney starts. Best so far was $35 bucks on a dollar exacta box.

That was an extremely informative posting. I was a harness junkie for many years, I was able to get out on the winning side due to some inside info but that source moved on. I know a little about flats and you have seem to covered many of the bases. Welcome to the site.