Mega Millions
Quote: NareedIs it worth it to buy ten of the same number?
Now I would consider that imprudent, though I probably wouldn't call you an idiot. The only benefit you would draw would be if you did indeed have a winning set of numbers. I think if you are going to spend the extra $9, then you should increase your chances of winning something by a factor of 10. Of course, if you have some magic way of knowing in advance which numbers will be drawn, you should buy enough tickets with that set of numbers that you don't care about anyone else getting those number by chance, forcing you to share. Now if they, too, have the magic way of knowing....
It looks like the record jackpot is 380M, hit on Jan 4, 2011, and was hit by two people. Tomorrow's estimate jackpot is 500M. We'll see how many people hit, but my unproven hypothesis is that the odds would be better at a jackpot of 200M or so.
Paco, can you produce a table of useful data to prove or disprove my theory? It could be based on other progressive lotteries.
Quote: DocNow I would consider that imprudent, though I probably wouldn't call you an idiot.
If I bought lotto regularly, you could :)
I did once buy lotto regualrly (I was an idiot, in that sense). Once by accident I bought three combinations twice each. As it happens, two of them won minor prizes (I think about US $10 or $15), so those tickets showed a profit that week (and a whooping loss over the years).
There's also a feature in Mexican lotto which allows you to buy multiple combinations based on a set of numbers. Say you can pick 7 numbers instead of 6 and get all 7 combinations of six numbers each (and pay for 7, of course). You can do the same with 8, 9 and 10 numbers, and of course the number of combinations rises as you add numebrs to the set.
You won't get any repeats that way, anturally, but you do get similar combinations. So let's say you pick 1 through 7 and the winner that week is 1 trhough 6, and assume no one else buys that combination. You'd win the jackpot, plus the prize for 5 numbers six times.
Quote:Of course, if you have some magic way of knowing in advance which numbers will be drawn, you should buy enough tickets with that set of numbers that you don't care about anyone else getting those number by chance, forcing you to share. Now if they, too, have the magic way of knowing....
Well, I should assume such magic means would work more than once. So who cares how many other people win this week? Imagine winning even a part of a jackpot every week, or twice a week these days? ;)
The $380 million jackpot on January 4, 2011 had 220 million tickets sold and was won by 2 people. The EV of the jackpot is .7318042 of the jackpot or 278 million before taxes. After taxes of say 40% the EV is 166,851,356, or $.9495/ticket.
The $390 March 6, 2007 jackpot had 212 million tickets sold and was won by 2 people. The EV of the jackpot is .7361 of the jacpot or 287.1 million before taxes. After taxes 172.2 million or $.9802 / ticket.
The expected value of all other prizes is $.182 on the dollar.
So, given the rather anecdotal evidence of 3 draws, it looks like the EV of a ticket actually rises with the prize size.
Quote: boymimboSo, given the rather anecdotal evidence of 3 draws, it looks like the EV of a ticket actually rises with the prize size.
I think you would agree that we should look at more than three draws to be more confident in conclusions drawn.
By the way, look who was quoted in this article: Mega Millions Winning Strategies Not In Your Favor, Say Mathematicians at ABCnews.com.
Quote: WizardI think you would agree that we should look at more than three draws to be more confident in conclusions drawn.
By the way, look who was quoted in this article: Mega Millions Winning Strategies Not In Your Favor, Say Mathematicians at ABCnews.com.
Great article. I appreciate that you do note that buying more tickets does increase your chances proportionately. For some reason, people think it doesn't.
Quote: WizardHere is a link to Mega Millions historical jackpots. I would be interested to see a table of jackpot size, tickets sold, and number of winners. I have a theory that at some point the jackpot becomes so big that the expected value goes down, due to induced competition, resulting in jackpot sharing. This I definitely think is a factor with bingo jackpots. When the cash ball jackpot at the Red Rock gets large it induces about four times the normal competition.
It looks like the record jackpot is 380M, hit on Jan 4, 2011, and was hit by two people. Tomorrow's estimate jackpot is 500M. We'll see how many people hit, but my unproven hypothesis is that the odds would be better at a jackpot of 200M or so.
Paco, can you produce a table of useful data to prove or disprove my theory? It could be based on other progressive lotteries.
Ask and you shall receive. All winner's from when California was added:
| Date | Sold | Jackpot | Winners |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/16/05 | 89,884,447 | 250 | 1 |
| 11/15/05 | 104,813,365 | 315 | 1 |
| 11/29/05 | 18,193,997 | 35 | 2 |
| 12/30/05 | 25,116,631 | 88 | 1 |
| 1/6/06 | 15,215,713 | 15 | 1 |
| 2/28/06 | 95,986,165 | 267 | 1 |
| 4/18/06 | 70,577,319 | 265 | 1 |
| 5/16/06 | 25,996,083 | 94 | 1 |
| 6/2/06 | 19,225,905 | 47 | 1 |
| 6/16/06 | 17,071,741 | 34 | 1 |
| 6/27/06 | 14,366,394 | 23 | 1 |
| 7/18/06 | 16,551,359 | 49 | 1 |
| 8/1/06 | 14,893,919 | 31 | 1 |
| 9/15/06 | 48,490,359 | 163 | 1 |
| 9/19/06 | 14,948,874 | 12 | 1 |
| 9/26/06 | 14,210,725 | 15 | 1 |
| 10/17/06 | 18,325,611 | 55 | 1 |
| 11/14/06 | 22,128,420 | 75 | 1 |
| 12/1/06 | 17,804,825 | 40 | 1 |
| 1/9/07 | 39,412,890 | 122 | 1 |
| 3/6/07 | 212,819,366 | 370 | 2 |
| 4/6/07 | 31,398,021 | 105 | 1 |
| 5/11/07 | 32,327,610 | 112 | 1 |
| 5/29/07 | 16,053,030 | 44 | 1 |
| 7/6/07 | 32,873,782 | 126 | 1 |
| 8/31/07 | 137,151,667 | 330 | 4 |
| 9/21/07 | 22,686,455 | 60 | 1 |
| 9/25/07 | 15,446,767 | 12 | 1 |
| 10/5/07 | 18,265,107 | 26 | 1 |
| 11/2/07 | 23,114,112 | 75 | 1 |
| 12/18/07 | 44,928,631 | 163 | 2 |
| 1/1/08 | 15,849,978 | 33 | 1 |
| 2/22/08 | 102,674,142 | 270 | 1 |
| 4/1/08 | 39,058,706 | 135 | 1 |
| 5/16/08 | 59,095,058 | 196 | 1 |
| 5/23/08 | 17,905,200 | 17 | 2 |
| 6/13/08 | 21,617,711 | 56 | 1 |
| 7/22/08 | 34,662,919 | 125 | 1 |
| 8/29/08 | 40,321,319 | 132 | 1 |
| 9/9/08 | 16,509,526 | 24 | 1 |
| 9/16/08 | 14,691,647 | 15 | 1 |
| 10/3/08 | 19,465,091 | 42 | 1 |
| 10/21/08 | 17,161,200 | 42 | 1 |
| 12/12/08 | 77,666,082 | 207 | 1 |
| 1/2/09 | 19,799,815 | 46 | 1 |
| 1/13/09 | 16,228,787 | 22 | 1 |
| 3/3/09 | 79,584,712 | 216 | 1 |
| 3/13/09 | 20,413,047 | 26 | 1 |
| 5/1/09 | 79,935,623 | 225 | 3 |
| 5/15/09 | 21,244,372 | 38 | 2 |
| 5/29/09 | 19,936,701 | 35 | 1 |
| 7/7/09 | 38,444,279 | 133 | 1 |
| 8/28/09 | 155,945,116 | 333 | 2 |
| 9/1/09 | 19,118,079 | 12 | 1 |
| 10/16/09 | 62,168,528 | 200 | 1 |
| 11/10/09 | 24,908,676 | 77 | 2 |
| 12/22/09 | 44,633,405 | 162 | 1 |
| 1/29/10 | 43,151,643 | 144 | 1 |
| 3/5/10 | 39,028,991 | 133 | 1 |
| 3/12/10 | 21,088,618 | 20 | 1 |
| 5/4/10 | 78,885,359 | 266 | 1 |
| 5/25/10 | 23,184,410 | 64 | 1 |
| 5/28/10 | 19,624,506 | 12 | 1 |
| 6/11/10 | 20,363,860 | 36 | 1 |
| 6/22/10 | 17,814,905 | 26 | 1 |
| 7/16/10 | 22,843,869 | 64 | 1 |
| 8/27/10 | 42,552,336 | 133 | 1 |
| 9/17/10 | 22,358,970 | 54 | 1 |
| 10/29/10 | 42,793,569 | 140 | 1 |
| 11/9/10 | 17,989,295 | 25 | 1 |
| 1/4/11 | 229,421,186 | 380 | 2 |
| 2/1/11 | 29,687,840 | 91 | 2 |
| 3/25/11 | 142,797,806 | 304 | 1 |
| 4/15/11 | 28,394,747 | 72 | 1 |
| 5/3/11 | 22,797,620 | 51 | 1 |
| 5/13/11 | 20,208,376 | 27 | 1 |
| 5/27/11 | 19,713,682 | 35 | 1 |
| 7/1/11 | 33,596,768 | 105 | 1 |
| 8/5/11 | 29,743,619 | 99 | 1 |
| 8/19/11 | 19,233,031 | 32 | 1 |
| 9/30/11 | 37,924,573 | 113 | 2 |
| 11/1/11 | 23,748,632 | 78 | 1 |
| 12/27/11 | 67,143,949 | 206 | 1 |
| 1/24/12 | 23,193,832 | 71 | 1 |
However, considering 4 winning tickets for any one jackpot was the most there ever was, and there were several tiny jackpots with mutiple winners, not to mention a few big wins that were not shared, I'd think you can't really come to any conclusions.
Quote: boymimboThe $330 million jackpot on August 31, 2007 only had 141.5 million tickets sold but was won by 4! people.
So it was split by 24 people?
Sorry, sorry, math joke.
That said, anybody interested in doing a WoV pool?
Quote: teddysSo why do people do those pools for the lottery? I get it, it increases their chances of winning, but at the cost of having to split it with a bunch of other people.
Reduced variance?
Quote: teddysThat said, anybody interested in doing a WoV pool?
Sure. I can pay for the tickets through PayPal if that's ok. I'd spend as much as $10 US.
Quote: teddysSo why do people do those pools for the lottery? I get it, it increases their chances of winning, but at the cost of having to split it with a bunch of other people. (Not to mention the legal fees from administering the trust). Why not just buy a bunch of tickets on their own?
That said, anybody interested in doing a WoV pool?
I'm up for a WOV pool.
As for the broader argument, I'm not sure what I'd do with winnings in excess of $20ish MM. So I'm happy to increase my chances of winning that amount through a pool rather than spending more of my own money to win $400MM alone.
Quote: teddysThat said, anybody interested in doing a WoV pool?
As long as the tickets purchased do not match any of the tickets I have already purchased. The check is in the mail.
Quote: WizardIt looks like the record jackpot is 380M, hit on Jan 4, 2011, and was hit by two people. Tomorrow's estimate jackpot is 500M. We'll see how many people hit, but my unproven hypothesis is that the odds would be better at a jackpot of 200M or so.
Paco, can you produce a table of useful data to prove or disprove my theory? It could be based on other progressive lotteries.
I will try but there is no data on ticket sales as far as I can tell. I do not know the relationship between the $12.406 billion in prizes awarded and tickets sold.
Informally, it looks like you are correct based on the top 12 prizes awarded to date.
| Winners | Date | Prize | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 6-Mar-2007 | $390 | 56 |
| 2 | 4-Jan-2011 | $380 | 56 |
| 2 | 28-Aug-2009 | $336 | 52 |
| 4 | 31-Aug-2007 | $330 | 56 |
| 1 | 25-Mar-2011 | $319 | 52 |
| 1 | 15-Nov-2005 | $315 | 60 |
| 1 | 2-Jul-2004 | $294 | 56 |
| 1 | 22-Feb-2008 | $275 | 52 |
| 1 | 28-Feb-2006 | $270 | 53 |
| 1 | 4-May-2010 | $266 | 53 |
| 1 | 18-Apr-2006 | $265 | 49 |
| 1 | 16-Sep-2005 | $258 | 56 |
However, the smallest shared prize was $17 million only 7 days after the previous winner (so the individuals only won $8.5 million apiece).
There have been 1032 drawings (I think) based on 516 weeks at twice per week. Th next drawing will be 1033. The grand prizes awarded have been $12.406 billion if they were taken on annuity basis. Since people are usually opting to take lump sum and invest themselves, those prizes are not listed. I imagine they change every time dependent on the interest rate available at that time.
A total of 138 correct number combinations were chosen in 121 drawings.
Ten times the prize was split 2 ways. (121+10=131)
Two times the prize was split 3 ways (131+4=135)
One time the prize was split 4 ways. (135+3=138)
| Winners | Date | Prize | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 6-Mar-07 | $390 | 56 |
| 2 | 4-Jan-11 | $380 | 56 |
| 2 | 28-Aug-09 | $336 | 52 |
| 4 | 31-Aug-07 | $330 | 56 |
| 3 | 1-May-09 | $227 | 49 |
| 2 | 18-Dec-07 | $163 | 46 |
| 2 | 30-Sep-11 | $113 | 42 |
| 2 | 1-Feb-11 | $93 | 28 |
| 2 | 10-Nov-09 | $77 | 25 |
| 3 | 11-Nov-03 | $70 | 35 |
| 2 | 15-May-09 | $38 | 14 |
| 2 | 29-Nov-05 | $35 | 14 |
| 2 | 23-May-08 | $17 | 7 |
The $70 million was split 3 ways, but one person owned 2 winning tickets.
One person won twice by picking the same number combination on two tickets (out of the two times the prize was split 3 ways)
One prize for $68 million is Unclaimed in NY.
The smallest win, was $10 million only 3 days after the previous winner. The $10 million may have not been dependent on tickets sold, but was just a minimum.
Prior to this drawing, the longest intervals between wins was 60 days. As you stated earlier $390 million was the largest payday, but there were 2 winners. The largest payday for a single winner was on 25-Mar-2011 for $319 million.
The median payday was $72 million. The median per ticket of the winners was $67 million
Quote: rdw4potusI'm up for a WOV pool.
As for the broader argument, I'm not sure what I'd do with winnings in excess of $20ish MM. So I'm happy to increase my chances of winning that amount through a pool rather than spending more of my own money to win $400MM alone.
As I said before, for the drawing on Tuesday I went in with 3 other friends for $10 each. I agree that for the jackpot, this splitting would barely matter given the marginal utility of money past a certain amount. But then I looked at second prize, which is $250,000 before taxes. Even if I won that one by myself, it's not enough money for me to stop working for the rest of my life. Sure it would be a nice windfall and I guess you could call it "life-changing," but it's not even enough to buy a house where I live.
So given that thought process and the fact that you're much more likely to win 2nd prize than the jackpot, I decided to "go it alone" for the Friday drawing. I've already bought more than 40 tickets anyway.
Quote:More than 4.7 million tickets won prizes in Tuesdays drawing, including four tickets that each won $1 million and 43 tickets that each won $250,000.
Are these $1 million tickets from the California pari-mutuel system? There's no prize listed between the $250K second prize (5 numbers) and the jackpot.
I think you answered your own question.Quote: teddysSo why do people do those pools for the lottery? I get it, it increases their chances of winning, but at the cost of having to split it with a bunch of other people. (Not to mention the legal fees from administering the trust). Why not just buy a bunch of tickets on their own?
That said, anybody interested in doing a WoV pool?
But to be more elaborate....
I'd rather pay 5¢ each, for 20 chances at $32mil, than $1 for 1 chance at $650mil.
Oh, sure, when push comes to shove, I'd rather win $650mil than $32mil, but $32mil ain't nuttin' to sneeze at....
Quote: AcesAndEightsFrom the Mega Millions website:
Are these $1 million tickets from the California pari-mutuel system? There's no prize listed between the $250K second prize (5 numbers) and the jackpot.
Players in any Mega Millions jurisdiction can spend an additional $1 per ticket to increase the non-jackpot prizes. That's how the $1MM winners were derived. California's "$250,000" winners actually got $3xx,xxx because of their parimutuel system.
Quote: rdw4potusIf we do a pool, it would be ideal for one of our California members to administer the pool. The parimutuel prize structure that the CA lotto imposes would be beneficial to us if we didn't win the jackpot but did win a smaller prize.
Not always true. It depends. For the March 20th drawing most of the prizes were lower.
Quote: mipletNot always true. It depends. For the March 20th drawing most of the prizes were lower.
You're right! Looking at other historical dates, it appears that the prizes are often significantly depressed.
I managed a pool once, for several years. My math said that if the chances of one ticket to win were, say, 1 in ten million, then with ten tickets the chances of a win were 10 in one million. Is this right or am I missing something?
Quote: NareedThe drawing's tomorrow, right? So whoever will volunteer to do the pool had better hurry :)
I managed a pool once, for several years. My math said that if the chances of one ticket to win were, say, 1 in ten million, then with ten tickets the chances of a win were 10 in one million. Is this right or am I missing something?
I think you're double-cancelling on the math. if 1 ticket is 1:10MM, then 10 tickets is 10:10MM, or 1:1MM.
Quote: rdw4potusI think you're double-cancelling on the math. if 1 ticket is 1:10MM, then 10 tickets is 10:10MM, or 1:1MM.
Sorry. I messed it up. I meant to say 10 in ten million.
Quote: NareedSorry. I messed it up. I meant to say 10 in ten million.
Then, assuming that each ticket is different, you're doing it right. I'm not sure how to account for the chance that you could happen to have 2 or more identical tickets within the 10 tickets that you own.
Quote: rdw4potusThen, assuming that each ticket is different, you're doing it right. I'm not sure how to account for the chance that you could happen to have 2 or more identical tickets within the 10 tickets that you own.
As I said, one time I entered a filled form witht he same three combinations twice. I forget exactly how that happened.
Quote: rdw4potusQuote: AcesAndEightsFrom the Mega Millions website:
Are these $1 million tickets from the California pari-mutuel system? There's no prize listed between the $250K second prize (5 numbers) and the jackpot.
Players in any Mega Millions jurisdiction can spend an additional $1 per ticket to increase the non-jackpot prizes. That's how the $1MM winners were derived. California's "$250,000" winners actually got $3xx,xxx because of their parimutuel system.
Ahhh right, I had forgotten about the Megaplier. That makes perfect sense as I remember the Megaplier being 4x for Tuesday's drawing.
Quote: NareedAs I said, one time I entered a filled form witht he same three combinations twice. I forget exactly how that happened.
The one guy won twice by filling out the same numbers twice. Someone else also won so he got 2/3 of $70 million.
Quote: teddysSo why do people do those pools for the lottery? I get it, it increases their chances of winning, but at the cost of having to split it with a bunch of other people. (Not to mention the legal fees from administering the trust). Why not just buy a bunch of tickets on their own?
I am not a lawyer, and I do understand that different states may handle things differently, but I don't think those buying as a group are usually participating in a trust. I believe I have read rules for the games indicating (at least some) state lottery corporations will not pay winnings to a trust or to any corporate entity. Winnings must be paid to individuals. Groups that own winning tickets have to submit a document indicating how they share in the jackpot, then the state lottery pays out the appropriate amount in either a lump sum or annual payments separately to the individuals.
2) This WSJ article below puts the EV at 69% Why are the EV numbers so different?
Quote: marksam40Two Questions: 1) If you win, should you make a large gamble so that your potential loss from gambling can offset the winnings of the lottery?
2) This WSJ article below puts the EV at 69% Why are the EV numbers so different?
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/03/29/is-mega-millions-540-million-jackpot-a-good-bet/?mod=google_news_blog
There's not much info there, but I do notice that the entire article ignores the non-jackpot prizes. The EV of those prizes is about $0.18 per ticket, and I'd bet that isn't included in the $0.69/ticket figure.
I have a buddy that works for the NJ Lottery commission.Quote: DocGroups that own winning tickets have to submit a document indicating how they share in the jackpot, then the state lottery pays out the appropriate amount in either a lump sum or annual payments separately to the individuals.
He has told me that the large groups that share a winning ticket mean nothing more than some extra work for the person who enters the names and addresses into the system.
On the other hand, it has the potential to create a lot of work for him, down the road.
It's his job to track down abandoned winnings. More often than you can imagine, people who get checks once each year - both big and small - move and fail to send the lottery a change of address form. It's his job to track them down.
It is for that reason that in NJ, and probably elsewhere, unless you specifically tell the lottery agent "annuity" when purchasing the ticket, they will hit the cash value button. And they have been trained not to ask.
Also, when claiming, you can change your mind if you had specified the yearly annuity option, but not if the ticket says cash option.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI have a buddy that works for the NJ Lottery commission.
He has told me that the large groups that share a winning ticket mean nothing more than some extra work for the person who enters the names and addresses into the system.
On the other hand, it has the potential to create a lot of work for him, down the road.
It's his job to track down abandoned winnings. More often than you can imagine, people who get checks once each year - both big and small - move and fail to send the lottery a change of address form. It's his job to track them down.
It is for that reason that in NJ, and probably elsewhere, unless you specifically tell the lottery agent "annuity" when purchasing the ticket, they will hit the cash value button. And they have been trained not to ask.
Also, when claiming, you can change your mind if you had specified the yearly annuity option, but not if the ticket says cash option.
If this is true it seems horrible. I always assumed you would just choose the cash or the annuity after you win. I don't think my Mega Millions tickets say anything indicating cash/annuity...
Quote: DJTeddyBearIt's his job to track down abandoned winnings. More often than you can imagine, people who get checks once each year - both big and small - move and fail to send the lottery a change of address form. It's his job to track them down.
If it turns out that I win more than half a billion dollars tomorrow night, I think I will be able to keep the lottery corporation informed about where to send the money. I know I would want an attorney to help me with tax and estate matters, and I would probably hire someone's services to make certain that the money gets to me in a timely manner. Right up to the point that it's my heirs who have to be concerned about such things.
And I wouldn't expect it to be a check. I assume the lottery corporations use electronic deposits, don't they? Can you imagine walking into your bank branch, handing the teller a check for the lump sum payment ($389.8 million less taxes), and saying, "I'd like to make a deposit to my checking account."
Quote: DocIf it turns out that I win more than half a billion dollars tomorrow night, I think I will be able to keep the lottery corporation informed about where to send the money. I know I would want an attorney to help me with tax and estate matters, and I would probably hire someone's services to make certain that the money gets to me in a timely manner. Right up to the point that it's my heirs who have to be concerned about such things.
And I wouldn't expect it to be a check. I assume the lottery corporations use electronic deposits, don't they? Can you imagine walking into your bank branch, handing the teller a check for the lump sum payment ($389.8 million less taxes), and saying, "I'd like to make a deposit to my checking account."
Better yet, ask the teller to give you a little folding money, maybe $10 million?
| Option | Amount |
|---|---|
| Annuity (26 yearly payments) | $540,000,000 |
| Cash (1 payment) | $389,000,000 |
| Option | Taxes | $1 Game Return (No Megaplier) | $2 Game Return (w/Megaplier) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annuity | Before | 325.52% | 166.26% |
| Cash | Before | 239.59% | 127.59% |
| Annuity | 35% federal tax withheld | 217.96% | 117.86% |
| Cash | 35% federal tax withheld | 162.10% | 92.72% |
| Option | Taxes | $1 Game Return (No Megaplier) | $2 Game Return (w/Megaplier) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annuity | Before | 171.86% | 97.11% |
| Cash | Before | 128.89% | 77.78% |
| Annuity | 35% federal tax withheld | 118.08% | 72.91% |
| Cash | 35% federal tax withheld | 90.15% | 60.35% |
Quote: JBHere are the updated figures after the latest increase (I know, the figures don't account for inflation, or California's pari-mutual system, blah blah blah):
Mega Millions Pre-Tax Jackpot for 3/30/2012 Drawing
Option Amount Annuity (26 yearly payments) $540,000,000 Cash (1 payment) $389,000,000 Mega Millions Return Table for 3/30/2012 Drawing - Single Jackpot Winner
Option Taxes $1 Game Return
(No Megaplier)$2 Game Return
(w/Megaplier)Annuity Before 325.52% 166.26% Cash Before 239.59% 127.59% Annuity 35% federal tax withheld 217.96% 117.86% Cash 35% federal tax withheld 162.10% 92.72% Mega Millions Return Table for 3/30/2012 Drawing - Two Jackpot Winners
Option Taxes $1 Game Return
(No Megaplier)$2 Game Return
(w/Megaplier)Annuity Before 171.86% 97.11% Cash Before 128.89% 77.78% Annuity 35% federal tax withheld 118.08% 72.91% Cash 35% federal tax withheld 90.15% 60.35%
JB, would you mind showing your work for these calculations? I will reimburse you with 5% of my jackpot win, if I win.
Seriously though, if it's a hassle don't bother.
Quote: AcesAndEightsJB, would you mind showing your work for these calculations?
Here is my Mega Millions math spreadsheet.
I thought the same thing. But tracking down abandoned annuity payments is a major part of my buddy's job.Quote: DocI think I will be able to keep the lottery corporation informed about where to send the money.
Quote: Headlock4...8...15...16...23...42
The numbers are bad!
Quote: JBHere is my Mega Millions math spreadsheet.
Thanks!
Quote: CrystalMathBased on the increased jackpot, the lottery is expecting sales of nearly 440 million tickets.
For the sake of argument, let's assume that their estimate is 100% accurate, and exactly 440 million tickets are sold.
Under those conditions, here are the probabilities for the number of jackpot winners:
| Jackpot Winners | Probability | 1/Probability |
|---|---|---|
| None | 0.081749 | 12.23 |
| 1 | 0.204707 | 4.89 |
| 2 | 0.256304 | 3.90 |
| 3 | 0.213938 | 4.67 |
| 4 | 0.133931 | 7.47 |
| 5 | 0.067075 | 14.91 |
| 6 | 0.027994 | 35.72 |
| 7 | 0.010014 | 99.86 |
| 8 | 0.003135 | 319.02 |
| 9 | 0.000872 | 1,146.60 |
| 10 or more | 0.000281 | 3,559.67 |
Observations:
- There is about a 1 in 12 chance that nobody will win it
- The most likely outcome is a 2-way split
- A 3-way split is more likely than a single winner
- 5 or more winners is more likely than no winner
