Betting the 2012 Academy Awards
Every year at this time I bet all the big favorites in the Academy Awards. I haven't bet as much this year so far, but there are still five days to go. As I say every year, the winner of most of the major awards is pretty much known in advance. How, I don't know, but the favorites pretty much always win. In the several years I've done this the biggest upset I've seen was Brokeback Mountain (about a -450 favorite) losing to Crash for Best Picture. I still made money that year due to every other bet winning.
So, consider this one of my hot tips. If The Artist doesn't win for Best Picture, then look for me at the Hoover Dam bridge.
| Bet | Amount | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Best Animated Feature -- Rango | 1598 | -639 |
| Will Michel Hazanavicius Win Best Director? -- YES | 2825 | -565 |
| Will The Artist Win Best Picture? -- YES | 5010 | -1002 |
| Best Supporting Actress -- Octavia Spencer | 5760 | -1152 |
| Adapted Screenplay -- The Descendants | 1825 | -365 |
| Original Screenplay -- Midnight in Paris | 1585 | -317 |
Quote: WizardAnybody who followed my advice on betting the no safety in the Super Bowl probably doesn't want to hear any more of my bridge-jumper bets. However, if you didn't jump yet, here are some more.
Every year at this time I bet all the big favorites in the Academy Awards. I haven't bet as much this year so far, but there are still five days to go. As I say every year, the winner of most of the major awards is pretty much known in advance. How, I don't know, but the favorites pretty much always win. In the several years I've done this the biggest upset I've seen was Brokeback Mountain (about a -450 favorite) losing to Crash for Best Picture. I still made money that year due to every other bet winning.
So, consider this one of my hot tips. If The Artist doesn't win for Best Picture, then look for me at the Hoover Dam bridge.
Bet Amount Odds Best Animated Feature -- Rango 1598 -639 Will Michel Hazanavicius Win Best Director? -- YES 2825 -565 Will The Artist Win Best Picture? -- YES 5010 -1002 Best Supporting Actress -- Octavia Spencer 5760 -1152 Adapted Screenplay -- The Descendants 1825 -365 Original Screenplay -- Midnight in Paris 1585 -317
Did you delay making your wagers? I'm not trying to belittle you or anything...but The Artist was at -500 at Pinnacle and Bovada a couple of weeks ago.
Quote: WizardSo, consider this one of my hot tips. If The Artist doesn't win for Best Picture, then look for me at the Hoover Dam bridge.
So, last year you bet a lot more money to win just a grand more than this year. Does it make you more or less nervous?
$51,125 $5,088 9.95% (for 2010 year) {ACTUAL WINNINGS WERE $4,713, LOST SMALLEST BET)
$18,603 $4,040 21.72% (for 2011 year)
If there is an upset, it is more likely to be Rango.
Quote: AcesAndEightsDid you delay making your wagers? I'm not trying to belittle you or anything...but The Artist was at -500 at Pinnacle and Bovada a couple of weeks ago.
Unfortunately, yes. The odds are even worse now then when I get a few days ago, which is holding me back from betting more.
Quote: mickpkMy tip for Best Actor is George Clooney or Not George Clooney. In that, from a financial point of view, I don't care if he wins or not because I managed to get a 3.4% arb via Pinnacle and another sportsbook. The odds have adjusted slightly (thanks a little bit to moi) but there's still a decent arb there if you hunt around for the best Clooney odds you can find.
Nice. I didn't bet that because it is a rare close to 50/50 thing. Currently at Pinnacle it is
Yes +112
No -131
I saw The Descendents and thought it was a pretty good movie but the acting was nothing beyond PAR for a big-budget Hollywood movie. My hunch says bet the "no," but I don't like to bet on hunches.
Quote: pacomartinSo, last year you bet a lot more money to win just a grand more than this year. Does it make you more or less nervous?
I'm less nervous because I have less to lose. Then again, I'd like to take another pass through Pinnacle if I can match the lines I already got.
My question about nervousness is with regard to putting $7.5K on Toy Story 3, which would have only lost of Beelzebub himself fiddled with the ballots. Instead you have $1600 on Rango (which is a risky bet IMHO) . Who knows if the Academy people are charmed by some animated movie you've never seen.
Quote: WizardAnybody who followed my advice on betting the no safety in the Super Bowl probably doesn't want to hear any more of my bridge-jumper bets. However, if you didn't jump yet, here are some more.
Every year at this time I bet all the big favorites in the Academy Awards. I haven't bet as much this year so far, but there are still five days to go. As I say every year, the winner of most of the major awards is pretty much known in advance. How, I don't know, but the favorites pretty much always win. In the several years I've done this the biggest upset I've seen was Brokeback Mountain (about a -450 favorite) losing to Crash for Best Picture. I still made money that year due to every other bet winning.
So, consider this one of my hot tips. If The Artist doesn't win for Best Picture, then look for me at the Hoover Dam bridge.
Bet Amount Odds Best Animated Feature -- Rango 1598 -639 Will Michel Hazanavicius Win Best Director? -- YES 2825 -565 Will The Artist Win Best Picture? -- YES 5010 -1002 Best Supporting Actress -- Octavia Spencer 5760 -1152 Adapted Screenplay -- The Descendants 1825 -365 Original Screenplay -- Midnight in Paris 1585 -317
Slice me off a piece of that action!
I got worse odds than the Wiz on every line, because I only have access to one betting location (Bovada) and couldn't shop around, and I just tonight finally got some funds in my account. Anyway, with only $919 total to risk, I went with the counter intuitive strategy and bet more money on the categories with shorter odds. I didn't touch The Artist at -1200. If this works out I plan on having a lot more money at stake next year. On to the numbers:
| Bet | Amount | Odds | To Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michel Hazanavicius Win Best Director? -- YES | 119 | -700 | 17 |
| Adapted Screenplay -- The Descendants | 450 | -500 | 90 |
| Original Screenplay -- Midnight in Paris | 350 | -350 | 100 |
Seems pretty lame in comparison to the Wizard's stately totals. But I'm not a professional gambler (yet) [don't tell my girlfriend I said (yet)].
Quote: WizardI wanted to bet more but Pinnacle took the bets down for some reason. At 5dimes all the lines were significantly worse as well.
The ballots are already counted. There are now several, if not dozens, of folks with inside information.
I think the Descendants for adapted screenplay is as close to a lock as you will ever find. However, I am anticipating "The Help" to upset "The Artist" for best picture.
Quote: AyecarumbaI am anticipating "The Help" to upset "The Artist" for best picture.
Without seeing either film, I sincerely doubt it. "The Artist" is considered a bold move from a filmmaking perspective. The Help may have good acting, but the raw material of civil rights in the 60's is well covered by multiple films. A Buena Vista or a Disney film has never won best picture.
| Yr | Film | Studio | $ million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | The King's Speech | Weinstein | $135 |
| 2009 | The Hurt Locker | Summit Entertainment | $17 |
| 2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | Fox Searchlight | $141 |
| 2007 | No Country for Old Men | Miramax | $74 |
| 2006 | The Departed | WB | $132 |
| 2005 | Crash | Lionsgate | $55 |
| 2004 | Million Dollar Baby | WB | $100 |
| 2003 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | NL | $377 |
| 2002 | Chicago | Miramax | $171 |
| 2001 | A Beautiful Mind | Universal | $171 |
| 2000 | Gladiator | DreamWorks | $188 |
| 1999 | American Beauty | DreamWorks | $130 |
| 1998 | Shakespeare in Love | Miramax | $100 |
| 1997 | Titanic | Paramount | $601 |
| 1996 | The English Patient | Miramax | $79 |
| 1995 | Braveheart | Paramount | $76 |
| 1994 | Forrest Gump | Paramount | $330 |
| 1993 | Schindler's List | Universal | $96 |
| 1992 | Unforgiven | WB | $101 |
| 1991 | The Silence of the Lambs | Orion | $131 |
| 1990 | Dances with Wolves | Orion | $184 |
| 1989 | Driving Miss Daisy | WB | $107 |
| 1988 | Rain Man | MGM | $173 |
| 1987 | The Last Emperor | Columbia | $44 |
| 1986 | Platoon | Orion | $139 |
| 1985 | Out of Africa | Universal | $87 |
| 1984 | Amadeus | Orion | $52 |
| 1983 | Terms of Endearment | Paramount | $108 |
| 1982 | Gandhi | Columbia | $53 |
| 1981 | Chariots of Fire | Columbia | $59 |
| 1980 | Ordinary People | Paramount | $55 |
| 1979 | Kramer Vs. Kramer | Columbia | $106 |
| 1978 | The Deer Hunter | Universal | $49 |
Selection Odds
The Artist 1/20 Ladbroke
Quote: WizardI wanted to bet more but Pinnacle took the bets down for some reason. At 5dimes all the lines were significantly worse as well.
I wanted to bet a higher proportion of my bankroll on Midnight in Paris at -350, but Bovada said the max on that bet was $350? This is my first time betting "sports" online so I'm not familiar with restrictions like this. It seems like if they think they have the line set correctly, why limit the action they're going to fade on it?
Also, does anyone know if there is historical information available on the odds for the the awards in past years?
Quote: DocFor the 2001- 2010 period, I have to this day seen a total of two of the Best Picture winners:
I haven't seen that many. I win ;)
Quote: DocThe list provided by pacomartin clearly points out how far out of touch (and how low on interest) I am with recent films. For the 2001- 2010 period, I have to this day seen a total of two of the Best Picture winners: Chicago and Return of the King.
Keeping in mind that the population of the country is 313 million, and last week viewership of NCIS on CBS was 19.6 million, look at these films by the number of box office tickets they have sold.
million
17 The King's Speech
2 The Hurt Locker
20 Slumdog Millionaire
11 No Country for Old Men
20 The Departed
9 Crash
16 Million Dollar Baby
63 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
29 Chicago
30 A Beautiful Mind
In the last 7 years, the Best Picture has sold fewer tickets than a hit television show.
The Best Picture is not often the biggest picture of the year, but a few like Titanic, Forrest Gump, The Return of the King, and Rain Man were the #1 film of the year.
Best pictures ranked by tickets sold in the box office
131 , 1997 , Titanic (#1)
79 , 1994 , Forrest Gump (#1)
63 , 2003 , The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (#1)
44 , 1990 , Dances with Wolves (#3) Behind Home Alone and Ghost
42 , 1988 , Rain Man (#1)
37 , 1986 , Platoon (#3) Behind Top Gun and Crocodile Dundee
35 , 2000 , Gladiator
34 , 1983 , Terms of Endearment
31 , 1991 , The Silence of the Lambs
30 , 2001 , A Beautiful Mind
29 , 2002 , Chicago
27 , 1989 , Driving Miss Daisy
26 , 1999 , American Beauty
25 , 1985 , Out of Africa
24 , 1992 , Unforgiven
23 , 1993 , Schindler's List
21 , 1998 , Shakespeare in Love
21 , 1981 , Chariots of Fire
20 , 1980 , Ordinary People
20 , 2006 , The Departed
20 , 2008 , Slumdog Millionaire
18 , 1982 , Gandhi
18 , 1996 , The English Patient
17 , 1995 , Braveheart
17 , 2010 , The King's Speech
16 , 2004 , Million Dollar Baby
15 , 1984 , Amadeus
11 , 1987 , The Last Emperor
11 , 2007 , No Country for Old Men
9 , 2005 , Crash
2 , 2009 , The Hurt Locker
Quote: pacomartin
Yr Film Studio $ million 2010 The King's Speech Weinstein $135 2009 The Hurt Locker Summit Entertainment $17
I'm sad to say in all the movies you listed from 1978
till present, I missed seeing 10 of them. I have no
desire to see Slum Dog, Million Dollar baby, Crash,
Beautiful Mind, English Patient, Miss Daisy and a couple
others.
Quote: EvenBobI'm sad to say in all the movies you listed from 1978
till present, I missed seeing 10 of them. I have no
desire to see Slum Dog, Million Dollar baby, Crash,
Beautiful Mind, English Patient, Miss Daisy and a couple
others.
Political statement?
Quote: WizardAnybody who followed my advice on betting the no safety in the Super Bowl probably doesn't want to hear any more of my bridge-jumper bets. However, if you didn't jump yet, here are some more.
Every year at this time I bet all the big favorites in the Academy Awards. I haven't bet as much this year so far, but there are still five days to go. As I say every year, the winner of most of the major awards is pretty much known in advance. How, I don't know, but the favorites pretty much always win. In the several years I've done this the biggest upset I've seen was Brokeback Mountain (about a -450 favorite) losing to Crash for Best Picture. I still made money that year due to every other bet winning.
So, consider this one of my hot tips. If The Artist doesn't win for Best Picture, then look for me at the Hoover Dam bridge.
Bet Amount Odds Best Animated Feature -- Rango 1598 -639 Will Michel Hazanavicius Win Best Director? -- YES 2825 -565 Will The Artist Win Best Picture? -- YES 5010 -1002 Best Supporting Actress -- Octavia Spencer 5760 -1152 Adapted Screenplay -- The Descendants 1825 -365 Original Screenplay -- Midnight in Paris 1585 -317
I really like the idea of laying the odds it seems like a "safer" way to place action on the Awards.
My question is how do come up with setting "fair odds" on this bets, do you just analyze what the so called experts are predicting or do you just assume that these markets are fairly efficient??
Since this is my first to time to try to ask you a direct question just wanted to let you know I love the site!!! And hopefully I'll get a chance to meet you at one of the WoV conventions in few years when I make my first Vegas trip next year!
Quote: Wizard (Feb 21)So, consider this one of my hot tips. If The Artist doesn't win for Best Picture, then look for me at the Hoover Dam bridge.
Bet Amount Odds Best Animated Feature -- Rango 1598 -639 Will Michel Hazanavicius Win Best Director? -- YES 2825 -565 Will The Artist Win Best Picture? -- YES 5010 -1002 Best Supporting Actress -- Octavia Spencer 5760 -1152
Quote: Wizard (Jan 26)Here are the Pinnacle odds as of Jan 26:
Best Animated Feature: Rango -380
BEST DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius -145
BEST PICTURE: The Artist -449
Best Supporting Actress: OCTAVIA SPENCER -900
Judging by these two posts, it seems as if the odds got much worse. If you had placed your bet on 26 January (2 days after the nominations were announced), you could have done much better.
Quote: teddysPolitical statement?
I don't care for Hollywood's treatment of these kind
of subjects, they always have an agenda.
So what. If you are betting on the awards its no different than betting on a horse... you want to pick the one that will win, but you don't have to like the horse or approve of him in any way. You just have to choose right.Quote: EvenBobI don't care for Hollywood's treatment of these kind of subjects, they always have an agenda.
Quote: pacomartinJudging by these two posts, it seems as if the odds got much worse. If you had placed your bet on 26 January (2 days after the nominations were announced), you could have done much better.
See earlier post:
Quote: WizardQuote: AcesAndEightsDid you delay making your wagers? I'm not trying to belittle you or anything...but The Artist was at -500 at Pinnacle and Bovada a couple of weeks ago.
Unfortunately, yes. The odds are even worse now then when I get a few days ago, which is holding me back from betting more.
economy than watching a bunch of millionaires give
each other gold statues."
thought she had passed away 25 years ago. When I had
the bar in Santa Barbara, Jane Russel's maid used to come
in every day for a drink when she got off work. She was
the spitting image of Thelma Ritter, the old time character
actress. She said Jane Russel had evolved into a total lush.
She never went out and spent all day drinking vodka, until
she finally passed out every night. She was almost 60 then,
this was in 1979 and 80. This had been going on for years,
and she drank almost a liter of vodka a day. That she lived
another 31 years has to be a miracle of some kind.
somebody lose all that money on the Superbowl, and
then sweep the AA's.. The SD for it is off the chart.
Octavia Spencer cried so hard, that you would never think she was so heavily favored to win.
Quote: EvenBobI think he cheated, I just don't know how. How could
somebody lose all that money on the Superbowl, and
then sweep the AA's.. The SD for it is off the chart.
Because he had to lay 9k or something like that on the no safety, which is usually a great bet. Good to hear the wins on the Academy Wiz! Hopefully back in the black!
except the one Clooney was in. I didn't think
it all that great, certainly not award material.
Yeah. I wonder about these Bridge Jumper bets. Its a great name. Sort of one step this side of betting that the world won't end tomorrow. You've got a pretty good chance of winning and ain't much gonna matter if do lose that bet and the world does end.Quote: kenarmanDon't need to look for a cliff Wiz nice work.
The trouble is I keep having the words of Sky Masterson echoing in the background "I got cider in my ear". There is so much politicing and so much financial interest in the voting that I wonder about the Bridge Jumper bets ... what if they decide to protect the image of their integrity by letting a few longshots win in a few categories.
Its not like a massive bet on two horses, you are really betting on two teams of Hollywood Backstabbers, Blackmailers and Leeches, each with Publicity Agents. Of course, some might say that is preferable to betting on horses because the horses can't be bought.
Quote: FleaStiffIts not like a massive bet on two horses, you are really betting on two teams of Hollywood Backstabbers, Blackmailers and Leeches, each with Publicity Agents. Of course, some might say that is preferable to betting on horses because the horses can't be bought.
I remember in the 2008 presidential election about 8 weeks before the vote, an analyst said something that stuck with me. He said that the corner had been turned, and the American people could imagine Obama as president. He expected Obama to keep gaining momentum and all the battleground states (VA, NC, FL, IN, etc.) would be carried by the Democratic candidate.
I just think there is something about the acting awards that is sensible. There is a palpable buzz in the media that leads you to somehow see the candidate as inevitable. Clearly Meryl Streep is appearing in the most successful movies of her career since the 1970's. Why she should finally win the Oscar for one of the most obscure and least likeable films in recent years is not really sensible. But there is a drumbeat in the media that says, it's time that they finally give her an award, instead of just nominating her over and over and over.
Steve Jobs. What was his involvement in the
movies business, exactly.
Quote: EvenBobThe 'in memoriam' segment had a picture of Steve Jobs. What was his involvement in the movies business, exactly.
Ummm..., a little company called Pixar.
Quote: pacomartinUmmm..., a little company called Pixar.
LOL. Sorry, I know we usually don't just do LOL posts here, but that was worthy.
Quote: WizardEvery year at this time I bet all the big favorites in the Academy Awards.
The Wizard described Christopher Waltz's character in "Django Unchained" as having the same personality as his character in "Inglorious Basterds" , but now he is good instead of evil. But Waltz won the Golden Globe award over roughly the same field of nominees (only difference was DiCaprio instead of Deniro).
Wizard, Does this make you want to change your strategy, or will you avoid this bet entirely?
Best Supporting Actor odds
Quote: LonesomeGamblerI don't see any heavy favorites in that particular category. The Wiz said that his strategy is to exclusively bet the heavy favorites. Am I missing something?
If I were betting again this year following the Wizard's advice (I won't be, stupid Bovada and WA state), I would avoid this category entirely. On Bovada at least, none of the actors are even getting less-than-even-money odds, Tommy Lee Jones is the "favorite" at +120. Too risky...although if I wanted to "gamble" I might throw some coins on Waltz, I have heard of him being a 15/1 or ever 25/1 shot at some places; that seems like a good value (I heard these numbers on a radio show, not sure if you can actually get money down at an online casino at those odds). Wouldn't bet him at Bovada at +450 though.
