Academy Awards Time
February 22nd, 2011 at 9:45:17 PM
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It is that time of the year to make an easy small return on my Academy Award bets. In my several years of doing this the only bet I ever lost was on Brokeback Mountain to win best picture, which was upset by Crash. Here are my bets so far this year.
For whatever reason, most of the time the winners are all but known in advance. For example, Colin Firth is just not going to lose for best actor. I hate to lay 45 to 1 on anything, but the reality is that it is an easy way to make 2.22% on your money in one night.
I plan to put more down later.
| Bet | Amt | odds |
|---|---|---|
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 200 | -400 |
| Best actor -- Colin Firth | 1650 | -3300 |
| Best actress -- Natalie Portman | 2230 | -892 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 400 | -800 |
| Best adapted screenplay -- Social Network | 1000 | -2000 |
| Best visual effects -- Inception | 350 | -700 |
| Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 | 1650 | -3300 |
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 2260 | -452 |
| Best original screenplay -- King's Speech | 857.5 | -343 |
| Best visual effects -- Inception | 1775 | -710 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 2342.5 | -937 |
| Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 | 1335 | -3505 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 950 | -950 |
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 1187.5 | -475 |
| Best actor -- Colin Firth | 3500 | -3500 |
| Best actress -- Natalie Portman | 2375 | -950 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 2000 | -800 |
| Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 3 | 4500 | -4500 |
| Original Screenplay - The King's Speech | 500 | -500 |
| Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network | 4500 | -4500 |
| Visual Effects - Inception | 950 | -950 |
For whatever reason, most of the time the winners are all but known in advance. For example, Colin Firth is just not going to lose for best actor. I hate to lay 45 to 1 on anything, but the reality is that it is an easy way to make 2.22% on your money in one night.
I plan to put more down later.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
February 22nd, 2011 at 9:57:55 PM
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You look to be good on those bets. You stayed away from the two very difficult categories of "supporting actress" and "best director".
The only one that seems even a little risky is "Natalie Portman", but she will probably win. I personally didn't think that was the best female performance this year.
The only one that seems even a little risky is "Natalie Portman", but she will probably win. I personally didn't think that was the best female performance this year.
February 23rd, 2011 at 2:48:31 AM
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Colin Firth cannot lose. Its easy for an actor to deliver lines. Colin Firth made you believe he was in anguish over his stuttering, his facial expressions whole demeanor were right in character. Anybody who plays James Bond never wins anything for a reason.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail."
Gore Vidal
February 23rd, 2011 at 8:47:43 AM
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I see odds of -2000 for Colin Firth as best actor on sportsbook. Since you are in for worse odds then that, perhaps you could increase your bet.
February 23rd, 2011 at 9:45:21 AM
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Quote: pacomartinYou look to be good on those bets. You stayed away from the two very difficult categories of "supporting actress" and "best director".
The only one that seems even a little risky is "Natalie Portman", but she will probably win. I personally didn't think that was the best female performance this year.
I was sold until I saw Winter's Bone. Jennifer Lawrence gave the best female performance last year. But no one saw the film.
NO KILL I
February 23rd, 2011 at 10:40:19 AM
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Quote: EvenBobColin Firth cannot lose. Its easy for an actor to deliver lines. Colin Firth made you believe he was in anguish over his stuttering, his facial expressions whole demeanor were right in character. Anybody who plays James Bond never wins anything for a reason.
Daniel Craig has won three awards for his role as James Bond (not a major one like an Oscar or the like). Sean Connery has an Oscar, 2 BAFTAS and 3 Golden Globes (mostly for the Name of the Rose and the Untouchables). Yeah, I looked them. I was pretty sure either of them would have won something in their careers.
Both are fine fine actors. The other four... not so much, though Pierce Brosnan has his moments.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
February 23rd, 2011 at 11:17:16 AM
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Hmmm, I didn't see Christian Bale in the "The Fighter", but I think Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech" did a better job Best Actor lock, Colin Firth.
Ballots were due yesterday, and the winners will not be announced until Sunday. The days in between open up some risk to the books from insiders. I think they lay the risk off with small caps on wagers, but what will they do if there is a strong swing from IP addresses in the Hollywood zip code?
Ballots were due yesterday, and the winners will not be announced until Sunday. The days in between open up some risk to the books from insiders. I think they lay the risk off with small caps on wagers, but what will they do if there is a strong swing from IP addresses in the Hollywood zip code?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:02:12 PM
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Quote: thecesspitDaniel Craig has won three awards for his role as James Bond (not a major one like an Oscar or the like)..
I never look at anything but Oscars, they don't mean anything.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail."
Gore Vidal
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:22:23 PM
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Well, Sean, the greatest ever milkman from Leith, won one of those little statuettes as well.
You should have said "no James Bond wins an Oscar", which is more quiet true. And who cares? James Bond franchise films are not about Oscar nominated performances, but instead cheesy British Action heroes. Turn off brain and place in box.
You should have said "no James Bond wins an Oscar", which is more quiet true. And who cares? James Bond franchise films are not about Oscar nominated performances, but instead cheesy British Action heroes. Turn off brain and place in box.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
February 27th, 2011 at 4:46:58 PM
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I've been betting more. Here is my full list. Wish me luck.
| Bet | Amt | odds |
|---|---|---|
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 200 | -400 |
| Best actor -- Colin Firth | 1650 | -3300 |
| Best actress -- Natalie Portman | 2230 | -892 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 400 | -800 |
| Best adapted screenplay -- Social Network | 1000 | -2000 |
| Best visual effects -- Inception | 350 | -700 |
| Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 | 1650 | -3300 |
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 2260 | -452 |
| Best original screenplay -- King's Speech | 857.5 | -343 |
| Best visual effects -- Inception | 1775 | -710 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 2342.5 | -937 |
| Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 | 1335 | -3505 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 950 | -950 |
| Best picture -- King's Speech | 1187.5 | -475 |
| Best actor -- Colin Firth | 3500 | -3500 |
| Best actress -- Natalie Portman | 2375 | -950 |
| Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale | 2000 | -800 |
| Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 3 | 4500 | -4500 |
| Original Screenplay - The King's Speech | 500 | -500 |
| Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network | 4500 | -4500 |
| Visual Effects - Inception | 950 | -950 |
| Best Picture - The King's Speech | 1250 | -500 |
| Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale - The Fighter | 2000 | -800 |
| Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech | 600 | -600 |
| Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network | 3500 | -3500 |
| Best Visual Effects - Inception | 1300 | -1300 |
| Best Picture - The King's Speech | 725 | -290 |
| Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale | 1250 | -500 |
| Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech | 475 | -475 |
| Best Make Up - The Wolfman | 400 | -400 |
| Best Cinematography - True Grit | 275 | -275 |
| Best Film Editing - The Social Network | 350 | -350 |
| Best Visual Effects - Inception | 1400 | -1400 |
| Best Sound Editing - Inception | 900 | -1800 |
| Best Sound Mixing - Inception | 187.5 | -375 |
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
