Wizard
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Wizard
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February 22nd, 2011 at 9:45:17 PM permalink
It is that time of the year to make an easy small return on my Academy Award bets. In my several years of doing this the only bet I ever lost was on Brokeback Mountain to win best picture, which was upset by Crash. Here are my bets so far this year.

Bet Amt odds
Best picture -- King's Speech 200 -400
Best actor -- Colin Firth 1650 -3300
Best actress -- Natalie Portman 2230 -892
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale 400 -800
Best adapted screenplay -- Social Network 1000 -2000
Best visual effects -- Inception 350 -700
Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 1650 -3300
Best picture -- King's Speech 2260 -452
Best original screenplay -- King's Speech 857.5 -343
Best visual effects -- Inception 1775 -710
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale 2342.5 -937
Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 1335 -3505
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale 950 -950
Best picture -- King's Speech 1187.5 -475
Best actor -- Colin Firth 3500 -3500
Best actress -- Natalie Portman 2375 -950
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale 2000 -800
Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 3 4500 -4500
Original Screenplay - The King's Speech 500 -500
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network 4500 -4500
Visual Effects - Inception 950 -950


For whatever reason, most of the time the winners are all but known in advance. For example, Colin Firth is just not going to lose for best actor. I hate to lay 45 to 1 on anything, but the reality is that it is an easy way to make 2.22% on your money in one night.

I plan to put more down later.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 22nd, 2011 at 9:57:55 PM permalink
You look to be good on those bets. You stayed away from the two very difficult categories of "supporting actress" and "best director".

The only one that seems even a little risky is "Natalie Portman", but she will probably win. I personally didn't think that was the best female performance this year.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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February 23rd, 2011 at 2:48:31 AM permalink
Colin Firth cannot lose. Its easy for an actor to deliver lines. Colin Firth made you believe he was in anguish over his stuttering, his facial expressions whole demeanor were right in character. Anybody who plays James Bond never wins anything for a reason.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 23rd, 2011 at 8:47:43 AM permalink
I see odds of -2000 for Colin Firth as best actor on sportsbook. Since you are in for worse odds then that, perhaps you could increase your bet.
Mosca
Mosca
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February 23rd, 2011 at 9:45:21 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

You look to be good on those bets. You stayed away from the two very difficult categories of "supporting actress" and "best director".

The only one that seems even a little risky is "Natalie Portman", but she will probably win. I personally didn't think that was the best female performance this year.



I was sold until I saw Winter's Bone. Jennifer Lawrence gave the best female performance last year. But no one saw the film.
NO KILL I
thecesspit
thecesspit
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February 23rd, 2011 at 10:40:19 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Colin Firth cannot lose. Its easy for an actor to deliver lines. Colin Firth made you believe he was in anguish over his stuttering, his facial expressions whole demeanor were right in character. Anybody who plays James Bond never wins anything for a reason.



Daniel Craig has won three awards for his role as James Bond (not a major one like an Oscar or the like). Sean Connery has an Oscar, 2 BAFTAS and 3 Golden Globes (mostly for the Name of the Rose and the Untouchables). Yeah, I looked them. I was pretty sure either of them would have won something in their careers.

Both are fine fine actors. The other four... not so much, though Pierce Brosnan has his moments.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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February 23rd, 2011 at 11:17:16 AM permalink
Hmmm, I didn't see Christian Bale in the "The Fighter", but I think Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech" did a better job Best Actor lock, Colin Firth.

Ballots were due yesterday, and the winners will not be announced until Sunday. The days in between open up some risk to the books from insiders. I think they lay the risk off with small caps on wagers, but what will they do if there is a strong swing from IP addresses in the Hollywood zip code?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
EvenBob
EvenBob
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February 23rd, 2011 at 5:02:12 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Daniel Craig has won three awards for his role as James Bond (not a major one like an Oscar or the like)..



I never look at anything but Oscars, they don't mean anything.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
thecesspit
thecesspit
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February 23rd, 2011 at 5:22:23 PM permalink
Well, Sean, the greatest ever milkman from Leith, won one of those little statuettes as well.

You should have said "no James Bond wins an Oscar", which is more quiet true. And who cares? James Bond franchise films are not about Oscar nominated performances, but instead cheesy British Action heroes. Turn off brain and place in box.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 27th, 2011 at 4:46:58 PM permalink
I've been betting more. Here is my full list. Wish me luck.


Bet Amt odds
Best picture -- King's Speech 200 -400
Best actor -- Colin Firth 1650 -3300
Best actress -- Natalie Portman 2230 -892
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale 400 -800
Best adapted screenplay -- Social Network 1000 -2000
Best visual effects -- Inception 350 -700
Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 1650 -3300
Best picture -- King's Speech 2260 -452
Best original screenplay -- King's Speech 857.5 -343
Best visual effects -- Inception 1775 -710
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale 2342.5 -937
Best animated movie -- Toy Story 3 1335 -3505
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale 950 -950
Best picture -- King's Speech 1187.5 -475
Best actor -- Colin Firth 3500 -3500
Best actress -- Natalie Portman 2375 -950
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale 2000 -800
Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 3 4500 -4500
Original Screenplay - The King's Speech 500 -500
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network 4500 -4500
Visual Effects - Inception 950 -950
Best Picture - The King's Speech 1250 -500
Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale - The Fighter 2000 -800
Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech 600 -600
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network 3500 -3500
Best Visual Effects - Inception 1300 -1300
Best Picture - The King's Speech 725 -290
Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale 1250 -500
Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech 475 -475
Best Make Up - The Wolfman 400 -400
Best Cinematography - True Grit 275 -275
Best Film Editing - The Social Network 350 -350
Best Visual Effects - Inception 1400 -1400
Best Sound Editing - Inception 900 -1800
Best Sound Mixing - Inception 187.5 -375
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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