How do I know if I am good or lucky?
I previously spent almost all of my horse racing betting trying to “handicap” races. Well, I don’t have an advantage doing that.
But, I am good at betting. I’ve gotten a lot better at making solid bets. People generally don’t think too many upsets will happen in a row. When they do, you can make serious money.
Before I was making $24 bets using favorites and trying to win $200-$300 by hoping one longshot could come in.
Well, now I’m doing $24 bets and trying to make $1000-$2000 by hoping two longshots come in.
And they have. I have 10 $1000+ winners this year so far. Previous years I’d average about 1.
This is a game of inches. I’m winning and not winning these thousands by literal inches in these races. There’s so much luck involved it’s insane.
So, the question is. Am I getting better at this, or am I just lucky?
And this isn’t just for my self esteem. If I’m getting better, then I should be betting even more. If it’s luck, I should probably bet less.
I don’t even know how to test it. Any help is appreciated.
Yesterday at Los Al in the late pick 4 there was one favorite I loved. Two I hated. The last race was no clue.
If I bet on the favorite in the first and every other horse in the last three (including those favorites) it would have cost $175. That bet paid out $1637.
I didn’t do that, but I’m just showing an example of how all you need to do is bet against a likely winner and you can make money.
Quote:Identifying whether you are skillful or lucky at something involves a combination of self-assessment, objective analysis, and feedback from others. Here's a step-by-step process to help you determine whether your success in a particular area is due to skill or luck:
1. Self-Assessment:
a. Reflect on your performance: Take some time to think about your achievements in the specific area you're interested in. Consider the effort you've put in, the time you've invested, and the consistency of your results.
b. Analyze your process: Review how you approach the task or activity. Are you following a systematic approach, or do you rely on random or haphazard methods?
c. Assess your knowledge and expertise: Evaluate your level of knowledge and expertise in the field. Have you acquired relevant skills, training, or education? Do you continue to improve and learn?
2. Gather Data:
a. Keep records: Maintain a record of your performance over time. This could include statistics, data, or notes about your accomplishments.
b. Compare to benchmarks: Research industry standards or benchmarks for success in the area you're interested in. Compare your performance to these benchmarks to gauge your relative skill.
3. Seek Feedback:
a. Consult experts: Reach out to knowledgeable individuals or mentors in the field and ask for their assessment of your skills. They can provide valuable insights and constructive feedback.
b. Peer evaluation: Ask peers or colleagues for their opinions on your abilities. They may offer a different perspective and provide honest feedback.
4. Randomness and Chance:
a. Recognize luck: Understand that luck can play a role in any endeavor. Sometimes, external factors or circumstances beyond your control can influence outcomes.
b. Analyze consistency: Consider whether your success is consistent or sporadic. Skill tends to lead to more consistent results, while luck may result in intermittent success.
5. Continuous Improvement:
a. Commit to improvement: Whether you identify luck or skill as a primary factor, focus on continuous improvement. Invest in further learning and practice to enhance your abilities.
b. Adapt to changes: Be prepared to adapt to changing circumstances and challenges. Skillful individuals are often more adaptable and resilient.
6. Evaluate Over Time:
a. Recognize that skills can develop: If you initially identify luck as a factor, don't be discouraged. Skills can be developed over time with dedication and practice.
b. Reassess periodically: Periodically revisit your assessment of skill versus luck to see how your performance evolves.
Remember that in many cases, both skill and luck can play a role in success. Skill increases your chances of success, while luck can sometimes provide opportunities. The key is to cultivate your skills, make informed decisions, and stay persistent in your pursuits.
given that was very broad i honed in on this particular part of the answer
Quote:2. Gather Data:
a. Keep records: Maintain a record of your performance over time. This could include statistics, data, or notes about your accomplishments.
b. Compare to benchmarks: Research industry standards or benchmarks for success in the area you're interested in. Compare your performance to these benchmarks to gauge your relative skill.
and then i asked it "what are some benchmarks for horse betting"
Quote:
Horse betting, often referred to as horse racing wagering, involves placing bets on the outcome of horse races. There are several types of bets you can place in horse racing, and the benchmarks for success can vary depending on the type of bet you're making. Here are some common benchmarks and considerations for different types of horse racing bets:
1. Win Bet:
- Benchmark: Picking the horse that wins the race.
- Success: Successfully picking the winning horse in a race.
2. Place Bet:
- Benchmark: Picking a horse that finishes in the top two positions.
- Success: Successfully picking a horse that finishes first or second in the race.
3. Show Bet:
- Benchmark: Picking a horse that finishes in the top three positions.
- Success: Successfully picking a horse that finishes first, second, or third in the race.
4. Exacta Bet (Exactor or Perfecta):
- Benchmark: Predicting the first and second-place horses in the correct order.
- Success: Successfully picking the two horses that finish first and second in the exact order.
5. Trifecta Bet:
- Benchmark: Predicting the first, second, and third-place horses in the correct order.
- Success: Successfully picking the three horses that finish first, second, and third in the exact order.
6. Superfecta Bet:
- Benchmark: Predicting the first, second, third, and fourth-place horses in the correct order.
- Success: Successfully picking the four horses that finish first, second, third, and fourth in the exact order.
7. Quinella Bet:
- Benchmark: Predicting the first two horses in any order.
- Success: Successfully picking the two horses that finish first and second, regardless of their order.
8. Daily Double:
- Benchmark: Picking the winners of two consecutive races.
- Success: Successfully selecting the winning horse in two consecutive races.
9. Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6:
- Benchmark: Picking the winners of multiple consecutive races, typically three (Pick 3), four (Pick 4), five (Pick 5), or six (Pick 6) races in a row.
- Success: Successfully selecting the winning horse in all designated races in the sequence.
It's important to note that horse betting can be complex, and success is not guaranteed. The benchmarks mentioned above are the goals for each type of bet, but they can be challenging to achieve. Many factors, including the skill of the jockey, the condition of the track, the horse's form, and more, influence the outcome of a race.
Successful horse betting often involves a combination of research, analysis, and sometimes a bit of luck. It's crucial to approach horse betting with a strategy, set a budget for your bets, and consider seeking advice from experts or handicappers to improve your chances of making informed wagers.
you collect that specific data, or which bets youve placed, then you compare your data over time
lol
3. Show Bet:
- Benchmark: Picking a horse that finishes in the top three positions.
- Success: Successfully picking a horse that finishes first, second, or third in the race.
7. Quinella Bet:
- Benchmark: Predicting the first two horses in any order.
- Success: Successfully picking the two horses that finish first and second, regardless of their order.
You mentioned ‘one favorite you liked a lot’. And ‘two favorites you didn’t like’. For the two you didn’t like, the rest of the public DID like them; that’s why they were favorites! If you can figure out what you saw that the rest of the public didn’t that would help define your ‘system’.
Quote: EvenBobIn the movies they always pick a horse by its name and win big. Does that ever actually happen?
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Yes, exactly as often as a long shot with a popular name wins.
He paid 11-1. I can pick by name and by studying the charts, but I'm sure many people can read them better than I do.
What I don't get is if you spend an afternoon at a sports book or OTB and watch the people who hang out there, why would you ever think about taking up the hobby?
The best horse in the race usually losses. Favorites win about 35% of the time. You need to bet against them as much as possible to win money.
It’s a lot easier to tell if you’re good at sports betting. Or even horses if you just bet wins.
But if you’re trying to bet pick 4s 5s 6s, it’s just so volatile that your bankroll is decided by inches constantly.
Quote: FinsRuleA day at the track is very nice and relaxing. A day at the OTB is not…
The best horse in the race usually losses. Favorites win about 35% of the time. You need to bet against them as much as possible to win money.
It’s a lot easier to tell if you’re good at sports betting. Or even horses if you just bet wins.
But if you’re trying to bet pick 4s 5s 6s, it’s just so volatile that your bankroll is decided by inches constantly.
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A day at a racetrack is very relaxing. I don't think doing it regularly would be, but others may enjoy it more.
On the other hand, if you both samples are above 100% ROI, it is a bit more likely that you are good. If you subdivide if even more and the samples all agree, then you probably have enough data.
This is meant to be a quick test. The better answer is to calculate the variance of your data set. From the variance, you can estimate the standard deviation. If you won $1000 over some period, and your calculated SD is $5000, then you were probably lucky. If you won $25000, and your calculated SD is $5000, then you were probably good.
You should normalize your bet sizes before you calculate variance, but any spreadsheet can give you the variance if you have normalized data.
Quote: FinsRuleI think the answer is that 9 months is not enough to prove anything. If I can do 2 years, I think I might have something.
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I believe you are correct. 9 months is a drop in the bucket, 2 years is the start of something. It just builds from there.
Quote: billryan
A day at a racetrack is very relaxing. I don't think doing it regularly would be, but others may enjoy it more.
My wife and I try to go to the horse races once a year, usually Del Mar. I am a net loser but I enjoy the occassion and never bet more than $20 per race. I would guess I average a lose of $80 each time we go. Of course, our food and drink bill is closer to $200.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryan
A day at a racetrack is very relaxing. I don't think doing it regularly would be, but others may enjoy it more.
My wife and I try to go to the horse races once a year, usually Del Mar. I am a net loser but I enjoy the occassion and never bet more than $20 per race. I would guess I average a lose of $80 each time we go. Of course, our food and drink bill is closer to $200.
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I used to go to the Belmont Stakes. It’s a fun day. In many ways more fun if there’s no triple crown up for grabs.
Great! We have a liberal arts major giving math advice without even knowing how many wagers are being placed per month. Any serious punter should be in the black after nine months if they have an edge on the WPS bets. Exotic strategies might have more variance.Quote: EvenBobQuote: FinsRuleI think the answer is that 9 months is not enough to prove anything. If I can do 2 years, I think I might have something.
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I believe you are correct. 9 months is a drop in the bucket, 2 years is the start of something. It just builds from there.
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Quote: unJonQuote: DRichQuote: billryan
A day at a racetrack is very relaxing. I don't think doing it regularly would be, but others may enjoy it more.
My wife and I try to go to the horse races once a year, usually Del Mar. I am a net loser but I enjoy the occassion and never bet more than $20 per race. I would guess I average a lose of $80 each time we go. Of course, our food and drink bill is closer to $200.
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I used to go to the Belmont Stakes. It’s a fun day. In many ways more fun if there’s no triple crown up for grabs.
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The Belmont used to be a great day, but it gets far too crowded if a TC is possible. I forget if it was for Smarty Jones or Big Brown, but that one year it was oppressive in the grandstand.
the takeout is brutal in horse racing
about 17% on win, place and show bets
takeout on exotic bets can go much higher - up to close to 30%
imho it's much easier to win at sports betting where there is a much lower take from the books
I've tried at horse racing with different strategies -
I've gone for long periods of being profitable but only by a tiny %
considering all the handicapping work I did it really wasn't worth my time
I do believe it's much easier to find a good bet on Triple Crown events and races at those tracks on those days
there is tons of soft money - once in a blue moon bettors - and they love longshots - causing the odds on logical contenders to be higher than usual
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Quote: FinsRuleI think the answer is that 9 months is not enough to prove anything. If I can do 2 years, I think I might have something.
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Your average Gambler will never agree with this. He wants to buy a book on gambling that he can read in the parking lot of the casino and go inside and do nothing but win. If you were to tell him it takes 2 years he would look at you like you were out of your freaking mind.
Quote: MentalI was at Belmont for American Pharoah's triple crown win. I lost my largest single horse wager ever on Big Brown's Belmont. I had my biggest successful bet ever on Smarty Jones even though he finished second.
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I am still waiting for Big Brown to cross the Finish Line.
Big Brown never lost a race that he finished, but we will never know for sure why he was pulled up in the Belmont. It was dreadfully hot that day. I remember that the water stopped working on the upper levels of the clubhouse.Quote: FatGeezusQuote: MentalI was at Belmont for American Pharoah's triple crown win. I lost my largest single horse wager ever on Big Brown's Belmont. I had my biggest successful bet ever on Smarty Jones even though he finished second.
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I am still waiting for Big Brown to cross the Finish Line.
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Big Brown would have paid significantly more to place than to win, and I had $3500 on him to place. The same inversion of win and place payoffs happened with Smarty Jones.
The front man( alleged owner) of Big Brown was so obnoxious I didn't want him to win.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: FinsRuleI think the answer is that 9 months is not enough to prove anything. If I can do 2 years, I think I might have something.
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Your average Gambler will never agree with this. He wants to buy a book on gambling that he can read in the parking lot of the casino and go inside and do nothing but win. If you were to tell him it takes 2 years he would look at you like you were out of your freaking mind.
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I’ve been agreeing with you a lot lately…
Most things you can master quickly aren't worth knowing.
But many things you can master quickly are worth knowing.Quote: billryanWhen I started grappling, my instructor told me it would take 10,000 repetitions for moves to flow naturally. It took years to react naturally. I started training at 23 and was in my 40s when I realized it had become second nature.
Most things you can master quickly aren't worth knowing.
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A newbie can be told how to be +EV on a signup bonus to the tune of over $1000 on their first time gambling in their entire life. Deposit the maximum amount of money at the right online casino, accept the bonus, play a certain 98% slot game until the PTR is satisfied, withdraw the deposit and expected profits. They don't have to even do it once, much less 10,000 times, before the knowledge can create significant monetary value.
Loss rebates and play-to-earns are even simpler, conceptually.
I guess a person might enjoy handicapping and put in the significant effort to learn to beat the racetrack. If the object is to make money gambling, it is easy as falling off a log.
It is a character flaw to need to reinvent the wheel when there are perfectly good wheels lying all around you.
