Roulette odds
November 3rd, 2019 at 4:22:40 AM
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Dear,
I have a question with regards to roulette odds and I am sure one of you will be able to answer it.
There are several online casinos that, on a regular basis, offer a bonus when you deposit a certain amount of money (e.g. 50% bonus for a 500 deposit). These casinos require a playthrough of the bonus of 30: i.e. you need to bet the total bonus amount 30 times before it is available. In this specific example, this would entail you need to bet a total of 7.500 ( = 30* 50% of 500).
In the past, my strategy was to bet 12.5 on black and 12.5 on red, and repeat this 300 times. Given the odds of green (1/37) my expected win was 47.30 (= 250 bonus minus 250*30*(1/37)). Of course, in reality there were some deviations from this expected value, but over 5-10 games my actual win was more or less equal to my expected win.
Now, these casinos have banned me from using this tactic as it goes against the spirit of the game. Another tactic I am thinking of using is simple betting the entire game on red or black, i.e. bet 25 on red 300 times.
Now, my questions to you are the following:
my expected win is the same, right?
however, the distribution around this expected value is wider (i.e. my standard deviation is larger). Correct?
o I have used this tactic a couple of times in demo mode, and my actual wins/losses varied widely from game to game.
o Would it be possible to explain/visualize the difference in odds between both strategies?
Thank you in advance for your help.
W.
I have a question with regards to roulette odds and I am sure one of you will be able to answer it.
There are several online casinos that, on a regular basis, offer a bonus when you deposit a certain amount of money (e.g. 50% bonus for a 500 deposit). These casinos require a playthrough of the bonus of 30: i.e. you need to bet the total bonus amount 30 times before it is available. In this specific example, this would entail you need to bet a total of 7.500 ( = 30* 50% of 500).
In the past, my strategy was to bet 12.5 on black and 12.5 on red, and repeat this 300 times. Given the odds of green (1/37) my expected win was 47.30 (= 250 bonus minus 250*30*(1/37)). Of course, in reality there were some deviations from this expected value, but over 5-10 games my actual win was more or less equal to my expected win.
Now, these casinos have banned me from using this tactic as it goes against the spirit of the game. Another tactic I am thinking of using is simple betting the entire game on red or black, i.e. bet 25 on red 300 times.
Now, my questions to you are the following:
my expected win is the same, right?
however, the distribution around this expected value is wider (i.e. my standard deviation is larger). Correct?
o I have used this tactic a couple of times in demo mode, and my actual wins/losses varied widely from game to game.
o Would it be possible to explain/visualize the difference in odds between both strategies?
Thank you in advance for your help.
W.
November 3rd, 2019 at 4:54:33 AM
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Hi W,Quote: BigDawg09
Now, my questions to you are the following:
my expected win is the same, right?
however, the distribution around this expected value is wider (i.e. my standard deviation is larger). Correct?
o I have used this tactic a couple of times in demo mode, and my actual wins/losses varied widely from game to game.
o Would it be possible to explain/visualize the difference in odds between both strategies?
Thank you in advance for your help.
W.
Welcome to the forum.
I'm going to be a bit lazy and not answer your questions. Sorry.
You're not wrong. And most casinos with bonuses don't permit 'low risk' coverage wagers.
But I'm PM'ing you a hint for you that might be of value....
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 3rd, 2019 at 10:00:07 AM
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like thisQuote: BigDawg09o Would it be possible to explain/visualize the difference in odds between both strategies?
the data shows a 30% chance of showing a profit after 300 trials betting a color
0% chance of showing a profit betting red/black together
per unit bet
variance: 0.02629657 (red/black)
variance: 0.99926954 (one color)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
November 4th, 2019 at 2:09:18 AM
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Thank you for visualising this.
A couple of questions/remarks:
- total profit = the bonus amount (250) - my expected/actual loss (202,7), which is positive in both cases. Agree?
- would it be possible to calculate how many rounds I would need with the second tactic (i.e. betting one color) to have similar odds as 300 rounds with the first strategy (betting red and black together)?
A couple of questions/remarks:
- total profit = the bonus amount (250) - my expected/actual loss (202,7), which is positive in both cases. Agree?
- would it be possible to calculate how many rounds I would need with the second tactic (i.e. betting one color) to have similar odds as 300 rounds with the first strategy (betting red and black together)?
