BigDawg09
BigDawg09
Joined: Nov 2, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 2
November 3rd, 2019 at 4:22:40 AM permalink
Dear,

I have a question with regards to roulette odds and I am sure one of you will be able to answer it.

There are several online casinos that, on a regular basis, offer a bonus when you deposit a certain amount of money (e.g. 50% bonus for a €500 deposit). These casinos require a ‘playthrough’ of the bonus of 30: i.e. you need to bet the total bonus amount 30 times before it is available. In this specific example, this would entail you need to bet a total of €7.500 ( = 30* 50% of €500).

In the past, my strategy was to bet €12.5 on black and €12.5 on red, and repeat this 300 times. Given the odds of green (1/37) my expected win was €47.30 (= €250 bonus minus €250*30*(1/37)). Of course, in reality there were some deviations from this expected value, but over 5-10 games my actual € win was more or less equal to my expected € win.

Now, these casinos have banned me from using this tactic as it goes against ‘the spirit of the game’. Another tactic I am thinking of using is simple betting the entire game on red or black, i.e. bet €25 on red 300 times.

Now, my questions to you are the following:
• my expected € win is the same, right?
• however, the distribution around this expected value is wider (i.e. my standard deviation is larger). Correct?
o I have used this tactic a couple of times in demo mode, and my actual € wins/losses varied widely from game to game.
o Would it be possible to explain/visualize the difference in odds between both strategies?

Thank you in advance for your help.

W.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 4604
November 3rd, 2019 at 4:54:33 AM permalink
Quote: BigDawg09


Now, my questions to you are the following:
• my expected € win is the same, right?
• however, the distribution around this expected value is wider (i.e. my standard deviation is larger). Correct?
o I have used this tactic a couple of times in demo mode, and my actual € wins/losses varied widely from game to game.
o Would it be possible to explain/visualize the difference in odds between both strategies?

Thank you in advance for your help.

W.

Hi W,

Welcome to the forum.
I'm going to be a bit lazy and not answer your questions. Sorry.

You're not wrong. And most casinos with bonuses don't permit 'low risk' coverage wagers.

But I'm PM'ing you a hint for you that might be of value....
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
November 3rd, 2019 at 10:00:07 AM permalink
Quote: BigDawg09

o Would it be possible to explain/visualize the difference in odds between both strategies?

like this

the data shows a 30% chance of showing a profit after 300 trials betting a color

0% chance of showing a profit betting red/black together
per unit bet
variance: 0.02629657 (red/black)
variance: 0.99926954 (one color)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
BigDawg09
BigDawg09
Joined: Nov 2, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 2
November 4th, 2019 at 2:09:18 AM permalink
Thank you for visualising this.
A couple of questions/remarks:
- total profit = the bonus amount (€250) - my expected/actual loss (€202,7), which is positive in both cases. Agree?
- would it be possible to calculate how many rounds I would need with the second tactic (i.e. betting one color) to have similar odds as 300 rounds with the first strategy (betting red and black together)?

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