Ultimate X Keno

I first noticed Ultimate X Keno today at the Suncoast and then saw it at VideoPoker.com. I think you need to be a Gold member to play it there. The gist is exactly the same as Ultimate X video poker. I hope that comparison is helpful. At least this game is much easier to analyze, with no skill component.

I started on a Ultimate X Keno page. For now, it just has the pay tables and a rudimentary analysis. The pay tables shows are based on VideoPoker.com. The Suncoast is not as generous, with an average return of 91.45%.

For now, I welcome the other math wizards on the site to do your own analysis. Feel free to challenge me, or better yet, agree with me.

The question for the forum is would you play Ultimate X Keno?

Quote: Wizard

. . . . I think you need to be a Gold member to play it there with an average return of 91.45%.

Okay. Most slot machines screw you royally, this machine screws you a bit less. And you have to have gold status to play at almost ten percent house edge even though you don't need Gold status to place the six or eight at 0.8 percent house edge at a craps table.

I made many improvements to my Ultimate X Keno page. Please have another look.

The next step would seem to me to analyze the expected value of each game state. In other words, how many multipliers do you need to vulture? (shut up Wiz!)

unless I'm missing it... the Suncoast paytable and multiplier table is identical to the VP.com multiplier and paytable.

Quote: rsactuary

unless I'm missing it... the Suncoast paytable and multiplier table is identical to the VP.com multiplier and paytable.

You're right. Copy and paste error, which I just fixed. Multiplier for catching 3 out of 3 in the VP.com multiplier table should be 7. Thank you for the correction.

I'm already working on a vulturing strategy for the pick-3 game and Suncoast rules.

I find that the player should play if the total abandoned multipliers is 7 or more. Keep in mind that what seems like no multiplier is really a multiplier of 1x.

At first this surprised me, because the player needs combined multipliers of 8.779732 to break even the NEXT game. So why play if it's only a total of 7? I figure that's because while the next play is moderately negative EV, it has a chance to win a lot of multipliers the next game. If it doesn't, then walk away. So, it's taking a gamble -- loss the next game for a chance of greater wins after it.

Does this make any sense to the experienced Ultimate X video poker vultures?

Quote: Wizard

You're right. Copy and paste error, which I just fixed. Multiplier for catching 3 out of 3 in the VP.com multiplier table should be 7. Thank you for the correction.

Something still isn't right. Now, the Suncoast multiplier table is better than the VP,com multiplier table and the paytables are indentical. Yet the return for Suncoast is about 4% less than VP.com

Quote: rsactuary

Something still isn't right. Now, the Suncoast multiplier table is better than the VP,com multiplier table and the paytables are indentical. Yet the return for Suncoast is about 4% less than VP.com

Thanks, another copy and paste error. I fixed it. As you can see, the VideoPoker.com has a higher base pay table than the Suncoast.

Quote: Wizard

I find that the player should play if the total abandoned multipliers is 7 or more.

I find this to be the case with the pick-4 game Suncoast rules as well.

I find with the pick-5 game you need 8 in multipliers to be +EV. It's impossible to have a total of seven.

Quote: Wizard

I'm already working on a vulturing strategy for the pick-3 game and Suncoast rules.

I find that the player should play if the total abandoned multipliers is 7 or more. Keep in mind that what seems like no multiplier is really a multiplier of 1x.

At first this surprised me, because the player needs combined multipliers of 8.779732 to break even the NEXT game. So why play if it's only a total of 7? I figure that's because while the next play is moderately negative EV, it has a chance to win a lot of multipliers the next game. If it doesn't, then walk away. So, it's taking a gamble -- loss the next game for a chance of greater wins after it.

Does this make any sense to the experienced Ultimate X video poker vultures?

No, because there is no next hand multiplier possibility when vulturing UX.

Quote: MaxPen

No, because there is no next hand multiplier possibility when vulturing UX.

Good point.

There were a great many threads and articles about vulturing. Some were fictionalized and some I certainly hope were fiction. I had the impression that these vultures were low lifes on the prowl who descended on a machine prior to a previous player making an orderly departure and fighting off other low lifes.

It seems that these keno cards are designed to retain that 'previous player's earned multiplier' even if its been hours, so there would be no unseemly pouncing by cruising vultures.

This would be a more acceptable situation.

Quote: FleaStiff

There were a great many threads and articles about vulturing. Some were fictionalized and some I certainly hope were fiction. I had the impression that these vultures were low lifes on the prowl who descended on a machine prior to a previous player making an orderly departure and fighting off other low lifes.

It seems that these keno cards are designed to retain that 'previous player's earned multiplier' even if its been hours, so there would be no unseemly pouncing by cruising vultures.

This would be a more acceptable situation.

Unless I'm misunderstanding "retain that 'previous player's earned multiplier' even if its been hours" for the most part they work the same. I haven't seen them and didnt read The Wizards keno UX page but I think you have to bet the same amount of coins each time to pick them off, meaning, you cant abandon them with 10 coins and someone come along and pick them off with less coins.

Keno UX works like Bonus Streak UX, Spin Poker UX, and UX wheel poker. You have to make a bet on the multiplier feature. There is no option to short-coin in. Okay, you can short-coin it in the VP variants, but you don't get the multiplier. On keno, you don't even have an option to short coin in and not play with a multiplier.

Quote: RS

Keno UX works like Bonus Streak UX, Spin Poker UX, and UX wheel poker. You have to make a bet on the multiplier feature. There is no option to short-coin in. Okay, you can short-coin it in the VP variants, but you don't get the multiplier. On keno, you don't even have an option to short coin in and not play with a multiplier.

Yes IGT wised up on the bet 5 or bet 10 thing in the spin off games.

In one of the other forums I post at, one member got a 20X quad on UX Spin Poker this weekend, that was a pretty sight.

Quote: MaxPen

No, because there is no next hand multiplier possibility when vulturing UX.

So it's more like UX Bonus Streak. Gotta see a pretty big number there to make it worth max betting and playing into the streak.

Quote: Wizard

At first this surprised me, because the player needs combined multipliers of 8.779732 to break even the NEXT game. So why play if it's only a total of 7? I figure that's because while the next play is moderately negative EV, it has a chance to win a lot of multipliers the next game. If it doesn't, then walk away. So, it's taking a gamble -- loss the next game for a chance of greater wins after it.

Does this make any sense to the experienced Ultimate X video poker vultures?

Yes and no.

It makes sense in the same way that what we will call the base game, (No multipliers, not vulturing,) is such that some of the value you get on the current play is in the fact that you can get multipliers on subsequent hands. This does not cease to be mathematically true for a person who is vulturing, (just that the potential value of multipliers carried forward does not change) so mathematically, the vulture just wants total current multipliers such that the next play (and subsequent) become better than breakeven propositions, overall.

On the other hand and as a practical matter, my answer is somewhat no because on UX type games in which the vulture must make Max bets, I want to have an advantage just on Base Pays + Known Multipliers. Bonus Streak complicates that a little, but it's a pretty simple determination with UX Spin, UX Keno and anything else. I just figure anything above that vis-a-vis future multipliers is gravy.

Personally, for this Four-Card Keno game, I would therefore be looking for multipliers totaling 9x, and I consider a hand with no multipliers as 1x, the same way you do. On any other game, I would generally want an average multiplier of anything over 2x for me to play it. Bonus Streak would be an average KNOWN multiplier of anything over 2x for the hands that I know I would be playing. Again, it's pretty simple to figure out when looking at a particular configuration, but the situations differ because of the unique distribution of multipliers in that game.

Thanks for the continued replies.

One thing I'd like to make clear is that changing the denomination, credits bet, or number of picks will change the multiplier. The player can make a different number of picks on each card. So, I would suggest cycling through the number of picks (3 to 8) on each card and selecting the choice with the highest multiplier.

Still hoping to get a confirmation on the math. My usual guy who loves Markov chain games like this is on vacation. I bet Mustang Sally would love this one, I miss her participation.

At this risk of ruining another play, I will be discussing vulturing Ultimate X Keno on a future episode of Gambling with the Edge, likely to air in late May. I also plan to discuss vulturing Golden Egypt.

Quote: Wizard

At this risk of ruining another play, I will be discussing vulturing Ultimate X Keno on a future episode of Gambling with the Edge, likely to air in late May. I also plan to discuss vulturing Golden Egypt.

Why?

Quote: RS

Why?

To help players improve their odds in the casino.

Had been playing this a little bit for a while. Went back yesterday and the machines I knew about were gone, replaced with video poker UX, so probably not very popular. Easy to find +EV bets to make, and gave the same points as slots, so pretty good in that regard, especially on the point multiplier days. Usually only 40-cents per spin, so not too much money to be made on them. Maybe if someone ever finds them on the strip it could be good.