Sports Betting +EV Situations

'The real deal' sports betting has come close to me, in WV


I had thought this was to be many, many years away, perhaps never, so most threads that were about sports betting got blocked and ignored by me till now


I made my first bets a couple of weeks ago. I've been taking it slow, having to learn everything from scratch. It's been fun, I really find it fun. I'll be blogging or making other threads about it. 


But already I'm wondering if I'm thinking I'm seeing something too good to be true. In hockey, I was getting 7 to 5 taking the the Lightning to win the Eastern Conference - what? 7 should get me 5, not 5 get me 7, but there it was. At that point in time, you had to wonder already just what exactly could happen to make them fail to win, it would be a case of losing every remaining game while the next closest won every game, or somesuch. Not a lock, but a fair bet would not be even money, much less 5 gets 7, surely. But there I am, I don't know what I'm doing, so I bet $5. No kidding. Should have bet the farm. But I was unprepared, with no confidence. 


How often is stuff really there like this? Am I missing something? You don't make those bets because blah, blah, blah?

Quote: odiousgambit

'How often is stuff really there like this?

About an 8% edge. It's out there every day, but it's usually a matter of whoever finds it first is the only one who gets it. I would guess I find something with that much value a few times per month. Which means however much work I do for it is only worth about $1,000 per year on this level of bets. Being in such a young market will probably make things a lot better for finding good bets like this

I think your bet was that Tampa has to win the Eastern Conferencevia the playoffs. That means they must win 3 consecutive series. 5 to win 7 might be the fair odds.

Quote: odiousgambit

...7 to 5...Lightning to win the Eastern Conference...

Seems you got +140 (7/5) when it's +125 (5/4) (see https://www.oddschecker.com/ice-hockey/nhl/eastern-conference/winner ). Well done - now it's time, as they say, to know you got a good bet and leave it to the horse to do the rest.

as soopoo said are you sure it wasnt to win the eastern in the playoffs?

Just looked, they already won the presidents trophy so that bet has to be to represent the east in the stanley cup finals.

Quote: SOOPOO

I think your bet was that Tampa has to win the Eastern Conferencevia the playoffs. That means they must win 3 consecutive series. 5 to win 7 might be the fair odds.

I got my bet right here, it's name is Paul Revere ... umm, it says "to win 2018-19 East Conference 4501 Lightning" , event date 5/31/2019

uh oh that date is wrong for what I thought I was betting on, you are right, the regular season ends 4-6-19

you'd think the ticket would say "playoffs" on it somewhere

now I'm glad I only bet $5!

thanks, guys, for straightening me out on that! these things always have a learning curve!

Quote: charliepatrick

Seems you got +140 (7/5) when it's +125 (5/4) ... Well done - now it's time, as they say, to know you got a good bet and leave it to the horse to do the rest.

I feel better now, thanks

Quote: odiousgambit

I got my bet right here, it's name is Paul Revere ... umm, it says "to win 2018-19 East Conference 4501 Lightning" , event date 5/31/2019

uh oh that date is wrong for what I thought I was betting on, you are right, the regular season ends 4-6-19

you'd think the ticket would say "playoffs" on it somewhere

now I'm glad I only bet $5!

thanks, guys, for straightening me out on that! these things always have a learning curve!

I feel better now, thanks

That can be misleading. I dont think there is a bet for winning the east during regular season. TB still has a good chance but I dont think they can win against the pens or the caps. They both match up very well. Tb needs the pens and caps to meet each other earlier so one of them gets knocked out. If somehow tb has to play both then you are screwed

Quote: TomG

About an 8% edge. It's out there every day, but it's usually a matter of whoever finds it first is the only one who gets it. I would guess I find something with that much value a few times per month. Which means however much work I do for it is only worth about $1,000 per year on this level of bets. Being in such a young market will probably make things a lot better for finding good bets like this

I agree with the 1k annual amount.

My brother doesn’t gamble as much as I do. But he tells me to let him know when something is +ev and he’ll join me.

This year we are keeping track of how much I am making him. We look to be on pace to get right to that 1000 amount.

Quote: SOOPOO

I think your bet was that Tampa has to win the Eastern Conferencevia the playoffs. That means they must win 3 consecutive series. 5 to win 7 might be the fair odds.

I think you're probably right and that explains the odds, - Fin is getting 7/5

they've only been to the Finals one time since the 2004-2005 season and they lost
they've lost the Conference Finals 5 out of 6 times since then
one time they lost in the first round and 6 times they did not qualify

there's a lot of skepticism about their ability to get it done

The blues are 2-0 against them. Go blues!

Quote: lilredrooster

I think you're probably right and that explains the odds, - Fin is getting 7/5

they've only been to the Finals one time since the 2004-2005 season and they lost
they've lost the Conference Finals 5 out of 6 times since then
one time they lost in the first round and 6 times they did not qualify

there's a lot of skepticism about their ability to get it done

You are confusing their winning the Atlantic Division with them winning the Eastern Conference. One is a regular season achievement, the other is a tournament result.

Quote: billryan

You are confusing their winning the Atlantic Division with them winning the Eastern Conference. One is a regular season achievement, the other is a tournament result.

No. Fin's bet was paying 7/5.
Nobody is going to pay 7/5 for them to win the Atlantic Division
they've already clinched the division title