Mega Millions
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27 members have voted
Quote: scolistSo if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?
Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.
Under my bed and I buy a big fire extinguisher just in case.
Quote: WizardTo address some recent questions, on a standard $2 ticket without the Megaplier, the return from fixed wins is 12.35% of the amount bet.
I show that for every dollar spent on tickets, 60.2 cents gets added to the jackpot. However, don't forget the annuity. They only pay out about 56.5% of the jackpot whether or not the player chooses the lump sum. So, about 34.37% of money bet gets paid out to jackpot winners, before deducting for taxes. Thus, the overall return is about 12.35% + 34.37% = 46.72%.
Thanks Wiz and Babs!
Wiz, is the 60.2 cents factor in dollars spent on Megapliet? I could imagine that 0% of that extra dollar goes into the jackpot if the idea is a compensation for the higher non jackpot prizes.
https://www.calottery.com/play/draw-games/mega-millions
I’d be interested to look into how the non-jackpot prizes are calculated in CA, and how much this increases the value of the ticket during large jackpots.
Quote: scolistSo if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?
Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.
Bitcoin.
Quote: scolistSo if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?
Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.
My failsafe would be to open up 20 bank accounts in 20 different banks, and deposit $250,000 in each one. That would give me $5,000,000 in federally insured funds. That is more than enough to live on extremely comfortably for the rest of my life if I somehow lost everything else.
As far as the "safe keeping" thing, I don't know if there's really a way to do that with such large amounts of money. Just invest it and take your chances with the markets or whatever you choose to invest in.
Quote: unJonCan’t find with a quick google the fraction of ticket sales that adds to jackpot.
I think it's different for each state, at least with MegaMillions.
In California, "about" $1 from each $2 Mega Millions ticket goes into the prize pool, of which 75.3107% goes into the jackpot pool.
For Powerball, again about $1 from each $2 Powerball ticket goes into the prize pool, but only 60.0131% of that goes into the jackpot pool. (Actually, it's 60.0131% if the lum-sum jackpot amount is $250 million or more, 64.0131% if it is between 120 and 250 million, and 68.0131% if it is less than 120 million.
Quote: TigerWuMy failsafe would be to open up 20 bank accounts in 20 different banks, and deposit $250,000 in each one. That would give me $5,000,000 in federally insured funds. That is more than enough to live on extremely comfortably for the rest of my life if I somehow lost everything else.
As far as the "safe keeping" thing, I don't know if there's really a way to do that with such large amounts of money. Just invest it and take your chances with the markets or whatever you choose to invest in.
This makes sense. 5 million would be more than enough to live happily on, for me anyway. Then I could fritter away the rest.
Quote: scolistThis makes sense. 5 million would be more than enough to live happily on, for me anyway. Then I could fritter away the rest.
if I have enough to have people take care of my rowboat all year in the harbor even if I never use it, that should be enough.
Quote: rxwineif I have enough to have people take care of my rowboat all year in the harbor even if I never use it, that should be enough.
That would have been a nice looking boat if somebody had built the back half
Quote: billryanQuote: rxwineif I have enough to have people take care of my rowboat all year in the harbor even if I never use it, that should be enough.
That would have been a nice looking boat if somebody had built the back half
AS long as there enough room on the front for all my young actress and model friends to sunbathe.
Quote: rxwineif I have enough to have people take care of my rowboat all year in the harbor even if I never use it, that should be enough.
If you're going to dream, dream big.
This was Paul Allen's yacht Octopus. They had a permanent crew of 57 to run it. It sailed all over the world, and he would fly in to use it.
He had a house just outside Kona, HI, a gorgeous place on the water, and would fly in at least once a year to stay there. The Octopus would be just offshore of the runway, and they would bring over one of the two helicopters on it to pick him up, either back to the boat, or directly to his estate. Then he would cruise the islands.
He held an annual retreat there for billionaires around New Years, when a lot of them come to Kona anyway. They didn't advertise it much - I can only imagine what would have happened if some baddies had decided to attack that conclave, so they kept it pretty quiet. That would make a hell of a movie.
But, yeah, I would definitely buy both a yacht (smaller!) and an oceanside house with a pier for it. But I think the majority of the jackpot, if it were mine, would get spent supporting a couple of charities I like. That would give me a lot of satisfaction. Might even have to take the annuity, or probably structure a trust, to keep a money flow to them over several decades.
I only need so much, so not really willing to sit on all that money. Like I'll ever have to make that decision. Lol...
Quote: beachbumbabsThis was Paul Allen's yacht Octopus. They had a permanent crew of 57 to run it. It sailed all over the world, and he would fly in to use it.
Bah... that's bush league.
Azzam is over 50 meters longer, has a missile defense system, and cost $600 million.
yes, it's not a good bet financially.Quote: WizardTo everyone who lost -- I told you so.
But I stipulate that it's not a bad bet socially.
$250k in 4 bank accts, each.Quote: scolistSo if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?
Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.
Rest split between vanguard, Fidelity, and trowePrice
"The standard deposit insurance amount is $250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, for each account ownership category."
I knew about 250,000 per depositor, meaning if you have an account, and your wife has an account, each only in their own names, both accounts are insured up to 250,000
I believe the 'for each account ownership category' would also let you have a joint account insured up to 250,000 in addition to the individual accounts.
here are all of the ownership categories:
Single Accounts, Certain Retirement Accounts,, Joint Accounts, Revocable Trust Accounts
Irrevocable Trust Accounts, Employee Benefit Plan Accounts,
Corporation/Partnership/Unincorporated Association Accounts, Government Accounts
Quote: Dalex64https://www.fdic.gov/regulations/resources/brochures/your_insured_deposits-english.html
"The standard deposit insurance amount is $250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, for each account ownership category."
I knew about 250,000 per depositor, meaning if you have an account, and your wife has an account, each only in their own names, both accounts are insured up to 250,000
I believe the 'for each account ownership category' would also let you have a joint account insured up to 250,000 in addition to the individual accounts.
here are all of the ownership categories:
Single Accounts, Certain Retirement Accounts,, Joint Accounts, Revocable Trust Accounts
Irrevocable Trust Accounts, Employee Benefit Plan Accounts,
Corporation/Partnership/Unincorporated Association Accounts, Government Accounts
surprised someone has not started a pool
Of course an individual’s actual return won’t start resembling those expected returns until he’s bought a few billion tickets.Quote: WizardTo address some recent questions, on a standard $2 ticket without the Megaplier, the return from fixed wins is 12.35% of the amount bet.
I show that for every dollar spent on tickets, 60.2 cents gets added to the jackpot. However, don't forget the annuity. They only pay out about 56.5% of the jackpot whether or not the player chooses the lump sum. So, about 34.37% of money bet gets paid out to jackpot winners, before deducting for taxes. Thus, the overall return is about 12.35% + 34.37% = 46.72%.
Almost no one will ever hit the the jackpot or top 2 fixed prizes even in a lifetime of playing. Meaning the return for most people will be about 7.85%
Quote: scolistSo if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?
Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.
Bitcoin
Quote: AyecarumbaBitcoin
if you want to lose it all
Quote: GWAEDammmnn. Going near 2 billion. I am definitely buying some at this point
kind of boggles the mind a slip of paper could be worth a billion.
Quote: rxwinekind of boggles the mind a slip of paper could be worth a billion.
Yeah such craziness. I am not playing for the money now. Although I will take it. I just want to be known as winning the largest jackpot ever
Quote: rxwinekind of boggles the mind a slip of paper could be worth a billion.
I don't want to be handed that much power instantaneously.
I'm perfectly happy saving several hundred a month until retirement.
At this point, the existing data is not enough to predict ticket demand. As we've seen in the Powerball, at some point ticket sales, like around half a billion, quit following an exponential or parabolic curve. Instead, for super large jackpots, there is more of a logarithmic relationship. So, I'm going to have to look at the my Powerball spreadsheet for this $1.6 billion jackpot.
Doing so, I get:
Expected tickets sold: 648 million
Expected winners: 2.14
Probability of at least one winner = 88.3%.
My guess is that the lottery discount rate is based on a long term US treasury rate, which is currently 3 and change.Quote: IndyJeffreyIn other words, if the interest rate is above 3.404%, take the lump sum? Of course, today's interest rate (Fed): 2.25%.
It would be wise to take the annuity when the discount rate is above average historical US treasury rates ...I estimate that average to be around 6 or 7 percent. With the current discount rate of 3.4% it’s a no brainer to take the cash option. Rates will eventually return to historical norms...we are at the tail end of an unprecedented long period of extremely low rates.
Hopefully they weren’t left artificially low too long, which can create the same bubble and crash that the low interest rate policy is supposed to correct.
Quote: WizardIt looks like 280 million tickets were sold for the last drawing. The probability of a winner with that many tickets in play is 60.4%. However, there wasn't so we get to enjoy watching the masses throw their money away chasing a record-breaking $1.6 billion dollar jackpot.
At this point, the existing data is not enough to predict ticket demand. As we've seen in the Powerball, at some point ticket sales, like around half a billion, quit following an exponential or parabolic curve. Instead, for super large jackpots, there is more of a logarithmic relationship. So, I'm going to have to look at the my Powerball spreadsheet for this $1.6 billion jackpot.
Doing so, I get:
Expected tickets sold: 648 million
Expected winners: 2.14
Probability of at least one winner = 88.3%.
How do the numbers look going forward, further than just last week and this upcoming week?
I assume you track the mega millions weekly....does it follow the same trend each time (as in, week 1 it's at X, if it doesn't get hit it goes to Y, then next to Z, then...), or does it vary all over the place?
Quote: Ace2
Hopefully they weren’t left artificially low too long, which can create the same bubble and crash that the low interest rate policy is supposed to correct.
They were left way too low for too long. We tried to get back to normal 2006-2008. Supervisors at the bank where I worked who should have know better thought a Prime Rate of 6% was high. Then the economy lived on the meth of low rates 2009-2016.
Much will change when we do get back to a more normal rate.
Quote: RSHow do the numbers look going forward, further than just last week and this upcoming week?
There is an exponential relationship between jackpot size and tickets sold, up to a point. This point is around half a billion, when the relationship becomes more logarithmic.
no one won Powerball. it's now $620M.Quote: WizardThere is an exponential relationship between jackpot size and tickets sold, up to a point. This point is around half a billion, when the relationship becomes more logarithmic.
exponential, logarithmic, what's next?
if nothing, then i will coin the term 'Powerball Super Spike' (tm) for this weds drawing.
If someone hits megamillions on Tues, i expect a near 90 degree climb in ticket sales for weds powerball drawing.
I think it's almost an imperative to write about the Mega Millions Jackpot being the highest in lottery history, so I did. Besides that, I'm hoping this will be good Google bait for the future.
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/mega-billions-lottery/
Is it an awful bet? Yes.
Is it the worst EV? It's very high on the list.
Do I think the players are idiots for playing it? I have a somewhat more charitable view of them than Wizard does.
Am I buying a ticket? Absolutely not.
I'm also not always THAT charitable, from the Article regarding the Pennsylvania Pick 2:
Quote:Yes, it is quite possibly the stupidest game in the world with a huge house edge that should be immediately obvious to anyone with a fourth grade education.
Quote: Mission146Greetings!
I think it's almost an imperative to write about the Mega Millions Jackpot being the highest in lottery history, so I did. Besides that, I'm hoping this will be good Google bait for the future.
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/mega-billions-lottery/
Is it an awful bet? Yes.
Is it the worst EV? It's very high on the list.
Do I think the players are idiots for playing it? I have a somewhat more charitable view of them than Wizard does.
Am I buying a ticket? Absolutely not.
I'm also not always THAT charitable, from the Article regarding the Pennsylvania Pick 2:
but at $1.6B *AND* I'm the only winner, it's +EV after lump sum and taxes, right?
winning the jackpot = non-zero chance
I'm the only winner = non-zero chance
:)
My question is, where can I find some pricing on simple short-term derivatives? I assume that some of the huge banks will sell derivatives, if I'm using the term correctly, that involve hundreds of millions of dollars. Thank you.
Quote: WizardI'm thinking of writing an article to counter Mission's article. One part of it would be a way to parlay $3 into say a $1 billion with a higher probability than Mega Millions. I can show we can get it to about $1.5 million at 17% edge by a combination of roulette and baccarat bets. However, at this point you reach maximum bet rules.
That's fine by me! I'd be more than happy with "just" $1.5 million. That's a set up for a very comfortable retirement.
cant wait to see your $1.5M system.Quote: WizardI'm thinking of writing an article to counter Mission's article.
One part of it would be a way to parlay $3 into say a $1 billion with a higher probability than Mega Millions.
I can show we can get it to about $1.5 million at 17% edge by a combination of roulette and baccarat bets. However, at this point you reach maximum bet rules.
hm.. cant find the link to your $5 to $200k roulette parlay system?
I think it was something like bet same # 3times in a row with all winnings?
also, how about video poker with the Double Up feature?
This is due to the lack of recent wins and the laws of clustering, a widely misunderstood branch of mathematics.
My clusterfu**ed model shows a positive EV of 320%.
Quote: GWAEI am definitely taking the lump sum. I just don't trust the lottery to keep my money for 2 decades without going bankrupt or having some corruption.
3 decades. Thirty year payout if you take their annuity. They start at something like 1% and add a little each year until they've paid the total 30 years later.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/10/22/mega-millions-powerball-jackpots-come-with-big-tax-bite.html
Quote: SOOPOOI do not want to be, and have my children be, the targets for kidnapping. Winning a billion puts you in those crosshairs. I have put a buck or two into the large group pool at work,where if i win I get 1/100th or so of the jackpot. $10 million anonymously (basically) is all I want.
I get where you are coming from, but I can’t find any articles about lottery winners/family getting kidnapped for ransom.
I understand that this lying about jackpots has been built into our national consciousness over decades of various state governments abusing their monopoly, but that doesn't make it right. It's false advertising, a flat out lie, and it needs to stop.
Diatribe over. I'm going to go buy my tickets now.
Quote: Wizard
My question is, where can I find some pricing on simple short-term derivatives? I assume that some of the huge banks will sell derivatives, if I'm using the term correctly, that involve hundreds of millions of dollars. Thank you.
What kind of derivatives? That is a broad question. This could mean stock options (anyone can buy with a few steps) to credit default swaps (hard to buy even for garage hedge funds) to other items.
For the most part a person needs to be an accredited investor to get into this kind of thing.
PM me if you want to know a little about stock options. The rest are above my investor grade.
Quote: gamerfreakI get where you are coming from, but I can’t find any articles about lottery winners/family getting kidnapped for ransom.
Just regular murder. I'll take my chances if I win.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Shakespeare
Quote: BaccaratKidWhere I live there is a bridge where cars pay to park. One only has to pay between the hours of 8 am and 6 pm, yet I always see people putting money or credit cards in after 6 pm (also, on weekends or holidays when there is no charge for parking). Do you think the meter rejects their payments?
Depends. I have had the meter change the message to "Free Parking" after 6. Others just take the payment. If it is smart enough for a CC the town should make it smart enough to announce when the fee is free.
Quote: tringlomaneJust regular murder. I'll take my chances if I win.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Shakespeare
first problem there is being in Florida.
