Wino
Wino
Joined: Dec 13, 2014
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 177
February 6th, 2017 at 2:55:32 PM permalink
Anyone analysed this Bacc side bet? If Non-Naturals win by 9 pays 30-1 and descending payscale from there? Countable taking into account 9 and 8 rich decks??
Wanda Wilcox: “I can’t stand people. I hate them.” Chinaski: “Oh, yeah?” Wanda: “You hate them?” Chinaski: “No, but I seem to feel better when they’re not around.” Barfly, starring Mickey Rourke
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 99
  • Posts: 4764
February 7th, 2017 at 6:50:55 AM permalink
Here is a run of 20 million 8-deck shoes based on counts of how many 8s and how many 9s were left in the shoe

Note that, in Nevada at least, while keeping a written track of the player and banker wins and ties is allowed,
keeping a written track of how many 8s and 9s have appeared is not.

Do not PM me with any requests for further information

Rows indicate how many 9s were remaining; columns indicate how many 8s

The number in each cell is the expected value of a bet of 1

Blank cells are where the situation occurred fewer than once per 10,000 shoes

012345678910
0-0.0851-0.0513-0.0372-0.029-0.0292-0.0285-0.0251-0.0273-0.0246-0.0071-0.003
1-0.0548-0.0393-0.031-0.0269-0.0243-0.0258-0.0268-0.0243-0.0256-0.016-0.0396
2-0.0414-0.0303-0.0273-0.0256-0.0267-0.0258-0.0249-0.0251-0.0237-0.0263-0.0277
3-0.0319-0.0299-0.0254-0.0271-0.0258-0.0243-0.0251-0.0278-0.0239-0.0264-0.029
4-0.0251-0.0274-0.0283-0.025-0.0259-0.0272-0.0251-0.0261-0.0271-0.0242-0.0307
5-0.0253-0.0309-0.0245-0.0261-0.0244-0.0256-0.0266-0.0266-0.0273-0.025-0.0249
6-0.0231-0.0256-0.0235-0.0261-0.0263-0.0267-0.0273-0.0258-0.0266-0.0282-0.0258
7-0.0319-0.0264-0.0288-0.0233-0.025-0.0246-0.0259-0.0253-0.0255-0.0272-0.0254
8-0.045-0.0254-0.0253-0.0253-0.0275-0.0274-0.026-0.0247-0.0265-0.0256-0.0251
9-0.0259-0.0394-0.0254-0.0247-0.0282-0.0255-0.0264-0.0266-0.0247-0.0259-0.0252
100.0055-0.022-0.0282-0.0236-0.0258-0.0257-0.027-0.0253-0.0265-0.0287-0.0255

1112131415161718192021
00.063
1-0.0168-0.02110.02030.0808
2-0.0364-0.0222-0.018-0.05-0.0298-0.102
3-0.0323-0.0318-0.0323-0.0301-0.023-0.0552-0.0513
4-0.0295-0.0285-0.0225-0.03580.0031-0.0376-0.0136-0.02630.0629
5-0.0237-0.0265-0.0193-0.0304-0.0326-0.0399-0.0221-0.0324-0.0327-0.0596
6-0.0246-0.0287-0.0216-0.023-0.0316-0.0308-0.0174-0.0253-0.0252-0.00230.004
7-0.0291-0.0265-0.0262-0.0211-0.0205-0.0196-0.0239-0.0253-0.0455-0.02350.0138
8-0.0267-0.0223-0.0245-0.0255-0.028-0.0204-0.028-0.0295-0.022-0.02570.0105
9-0.0242-0.0267-0.0269-0.026-0.0263-0.0241-0.0308-0.0206-0.0211-0.0263-0.0224
10-0.0278-0.0248-0.0252-0.0248-0.0273-0.0221-0.0296-0.0251-0.0268-0.0176-0.029

2223242526272829303132
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7-0.0263
8-0.0684-0.0508
9-0.0145-0.04510.012
10-0.034-0.0426-0.0203-0.013

012345678910
110.0422-0.0273-0.0337-0.0263-0.025-0.0293-0.0259-0.0277-0.025-0.0257-0.0258
12-0.0258-0.0247-0.0239-0.027-0.022-0.0273-0.0245-0.0259-0.0253-0.0264
13-0.041-0.0482-0.014-0.0336-0.0246-0.0281-0.0237-0.0238-0.0268-0.0252
140.0210.0208-0.0257-0.0207-0.0338-0.0327-0.0264-0.0252-0.0265-0.0257
15-0.038-0.0154-0.0415-0.0356-0.0265-0.0277-0.0294-0.0263-0.0242
160.0232-0.0681-0.0536-0.0281-0.028-0.0294-0.0207-0.0274-0.0223
17-0.0137-0.0105-0.0247-0.0228-0.0224-0.0276-0.0273-0.0289
18-0.0025-0.0293-0.005-0.0294-0.0247-0.0295-0.0237
19-0.0474-0.045-0.0406-0.0389-0.0127-0.0266-0.0228
20-0.0426-0.0168-0.0398-0.0205-0.0263-0.0294
21-0.0913-0.0004-0.0026-0.0192-0.011

1112131415161718192021
11-0.0249-0.0244-0.0257-0.0261-0.0251-0.0277-0.0264-0.0297-0.0222-0.032-0.0273
12-0.0271-0.0264-0.0263-0.0242-0.026-0.025-0.0242-0.0258-0.0257-0.0311-0.0291
13-0.0259-0.0274-0.0263-0.0258-0.0249-0.0268-0.0262-0.0245-0.0254-0.0257-0.0287
14-0.0269-0.0262-0.0251-0.026-0.025-0.0246-0.0275-0.0274-0.0285-0.029-0.021
15-0.0273-0.0253-0.0263-0.0249-0.0267-0.025-0.0252-0.0242-0.025-0.0278-0.0275
16-0.0255-0.0252-0.0241-0.0245-0.0246-0.0238-0.0255-0.0269-0.0258-0.0261-0.0263
17-0.0291-0.026-0.0251-0.0259-0.0264-0.0259-0.0268-0.0235-0.0282-0.0259-0.0274
18-0.0235-0.0305-0.0284-0.0255-0.0262-0.0266-0.0257-0.0255-0.0257-0.0268-0.0267
19-0.0255-0.022-0.0271-0.0286-0.024-0.0265-0.0251-0.0243-0.0269-0.0261-0.0247
20-0.0254-0.0268-0.027-0.0247-0.0249-0.0259-0.0265-0.0279-0.027-0.0263-0.0253
21-0.0267-0.0241-0.0251-0.0259-0.0256-0.0237-0.0244-0.027-0.0243-0.0273-0.026

2223242526272829303132
11-0.0287-0.0068-0.0384-0.0568-0.0959
12-0.0285-0.0345-0.0326-0.03260.0266-0.0327
13-0.0287-0.0343-0.0245-0.0204-0.03880.02240.0579
14-0.0255-0.0197-0.0242-0.0138-0.026-0.0053-0.0717
15-0.0251-0.0248-0.0235-0.0288-0.0302-0.0191-0.0815-0.0102
16-0.0263-0.0263-0.0311-0.0252-0.028-0.0264-0.0346-0.033-0.0834
17-0.0264-0.025-0.0263-0.0272-0.0171-0.026-0.0062-0.0410.0469
18-0.0266-0.0246-0.0238-0.0288-0.0249-0.0236-0.0296-0.0268-0.01080.0636
19-0.0263-0.0268-0.0251-0.0269-0.0237-0.0284-0.0219-0.0274-0.04850.0233
20-0.0266-0.0232-0.0261-0.0252-0.0259-0.0246-0.0235-0.0281-0.0311-0.0066
21-0.0257-0.0255-0.0276-0.027-0.0238-0.0255-0.0269-0.0251-0.0189-0.0135-0.0336

012345678910
22-0.0199-0.0348-0.027-0.0082
23-0.0129-0.0018-0.0134
24-0.02910.0092
25-0.0231
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

1112131415161718192021
22-0.0337-0.0302-0.0288-0.0223-0.0292-0.0262-0.0263-0.0274-0.0272-0.0259-0.0262
23-0.0281-0.0248-0.0254-0.0254-0.0248-0.0297-0.024-0.0288-0.0265-0.0246-0.0268
24-0.0143-0.0193-0.0207-0.0228-0.0139-0.0244-0.0282-0.026-0.0259-0.0283-0.0236
25-0.0431-0.0604-0.0167-0.0201-0.0263-0.0256-0.0213-0.026-0.0261-0.0243-0.027
26-0.07570.02020.0059-0.0074-0.0341-0.0215-0.0284-0.0268-0.0199-0.0282-0.0256
27-0.08860.0185-0.0849-0.0535-0.0203-0.0294-0.0218-0.0251-0.029-0.0274
28-0.0309-0.0557-0.0561-0.0385-0.0223-0.0268-0.0255-0.0308-0.027
29-0.0349-0.0212-0.0288-0.0231-0.0365-0.0396-0.0257
30-0.1476-0.0197-0.0312-0.011-0.0353-0.0259
310.0067-0.0088-0.019-0.0204
320.012

2223242526272829303132
22-0.0265-0.0278-0.0272-0.0265-0.0245-0.0291-0.0239-0.0234-0.0345-0.0362-0.0261
23-0.027-0.0271-0.0251-0.0244-0.0263-0.0231-0.0281-0.0289-0.0277-0.034-0.0387
24-0.0272-0.0275-0.0257-0.0254-0.0256-0.0259-0.0263-0.0234-0.0216-0.0134-0.0327
25-0.0263-0.0256-0.0251-0.0258-0.0247-0.0282-0.0256-0.0239-0.0259-0.0247-0.0212
26-0.0248-0.028-0.0268-0.0255-0.026-0.0242-0.0253-0.0282-0.0278-0.0236-0.0307
27-0.0274-0.028-0.0235-0.0248-0.0248-0.0252-0.0251-0.0264-0.0239-0.0291-0.0297
28-0.0247-0.0266-0.0278-0.0265-0.0263-0.026-0.0263-0.0266-0.0259-0.0251-0.0266
29-0.0199-0.0235-0.0256-0.0268-0.0255-0.0266-0.0265-0.025-0.0249-0.0263-0.0251
30-0.0286-0.027-0.0256-0.0265-0.0264-0.0237-0.0264-0.0258-0.026-0.0259-0.0264
31-0.0358-0.0221-0.0286-0.0266-0.0238-0.0263-0.0261-0.0261-0.0246-0.0264-0.0264
32-0.0103-0.0577-0.0243-0.0234-0.028-0.022-0.0244-0.0255-0.0264-0.01-0.0286


From the looks of it, the only APs that showed up look like they require some serious waiting.

EDIT: I did a subsequent run of 20 million shoes that was limited to situations that happened at least once per 1000 shoes, and all of them had negative EV.
Wino
Wino
Joined: Dec 13, 2014
  • Threads: 45
  • Posts: 177
February 9th, 2017 at 2:31:50 PM permalink
ThatDonGuy,

You have exceeded all expectations on level of member support. Thank you so much for being such a valuable contibutor to this great forum!
Wanda Wilcox: “I can’t stand people. I hate them.” Chinaski: “Oh, yeah?” Wanda: “You hate them?” Chinaski: “No, but I seem to feel better when they’re not around.” Barfly, starring Mickey Rourke

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