Powerball at 400 Million
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62 members have voted
Quote: DeucekiesAs of 10:30pm PT, news outlets are reporting that there was no winner in today's drawing. Expected Wednesday jackpot: $1.3 billion.
Correct
Possibly $2 billion by Wednesday???
And if it doesn't hit on Wednesday, oh my God. New odds or no, that's outrageous.
If I did it right, there have been 956,603,464 tickets sold since the last jackpot. The odds of that many tickets missing: 3.786%
Quote: DeucekiesI'd like to know what the odds are of us getting this far without a winner. I guess you'd need to know the number of tickets sold for the last nineteen drawings first, right? Then it would be (292,201,337/292,201,338)^that number, yeah?
You'd need to know the number of tickets sold per drawing.
(292,201,337/292,201,338)^N1 x
(292,201,337/292,201,338)^N2 x
(292,201,337/292,201,338)^N3 x
.....
(292,201,337/292,201,338)^N19
And given data from the Powerball website, they say there was only 18,315,365 "winners", and the overall odds of winning on a ticket is 1 in 24.87, so the rough number of tickets sold was "only" 455,500,000. So the odds of a rollover was (292,201,337/292,201,338)^455,500,000 =21.07%. So they have changed something with the jackpot distribution, or the Wizard made a math goof.
As for will the sales go up much? They will somewhat, but I'm still spending $10 like I did last draw.
Edit: I bothered to look at the winners' data for all the rollovers.
The odds of rolling over to this point is 3.87%!!!!
The first 7 draws only have diehard/addicted players. The number of winners is roughly ~500k, and the chances of a rollover was 95%+ for each of those draws. Just one week ago, the probability of a rollover on that draw was 82.8%!!!
Odds of getting this far with no win: 3.786%. Same number, just another way to get there.
WHICH HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING: COMPUTER PICKS OR PLAYER PICKS?
"About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks. About 70% to 80% of winners are computer picks. Perhaps just one of those weird coincidences?"
Also just saw this article originlly published in 2013:
Lottery Winner Stays Grounded After $220 Million Jackpot
Quote: rxwineIf I win, I'm going to take the lump sum, get all the cash in heavy metal box and self-record a video of me burying it in some non-descript location, then post the video on the Internet. Think I'll wear some Joker makeup and laugh hysterically during the whole thing.
Why? I don't know. Why not. It'd get me a Wikipedia page!
Will you leave us a treasure map like that other Millionaire that buried his fortune? What a guy, now I got holes in my backyard I gotta fill.
According to LottoReport, there were 440,321,172 tickets sold (dividing dollar sales by 2). That is much less than my estimate of 1,171,462,570. The reason I assume for the difference is the machines can print tickets only so fast and approached their limit.
Given the actual sales number, there should have been 1.51 winners. The probability of zero winners is 22.2%.
I bought mine at a small discount grocery/close-out type store at the customer service desk. There was never a line that I saw. Yeah, I've seen the news coverage of the lines at other outlets, I guess across from the border of a state that isn't in it ? ? ?Quote: WizardAccording to LottoReport, there were 440,321,172 tickets sold (dividing dollar sales by 2). That is much less than my estimate of 1,171,462,570. The reason I assume for the difference is the machines can print tickets only so fast and approached their limit.
Our results:
2 Tickets
We hit 0 of any of the Numbers.
There were no duplicate Numbers on either ticket.
Quote: IbeatyouracesJanuary 4th, 2016 at 9:41:58 AM
Will never play it. Too much variance.
I'm waiting for day when one of these jackpots hits $1 billion!
What's a five letter word to describe January 10th, 2016?
T-O-D-A-Y.
Quote: JohnnyQI bought mine at a small discount grocery/close-out type store at the customer service desk. There was never a line that I saw.
Thanks. Maybe the limit to printer speed isn't the issue but a cap on the most tickets anybody feels comfortable buying. Whatever the case, my exponential demand curve, which I've trusted for years, didn't fit yesterday's drawing.
Let me pose this question to the forum. Please try to answer honestly. How many tickets would you buy at a jackpot of $500 million and also $1 billion?
Quote: Wizard
Let me pose this question to the forum. Please try to answer honestly. How many tickets would you buy at a jackpot of $500 million and also $1 billion?
Not normally a player but when the hype started last week I bought $10 worth. Same plan for the past 2 drawings. Then last night I impulsively bought an extra $10 worth for a total of $20. Will buy $20 again for Wednesday.
In LA and walked into a 7-11 for water last night and walked right up to get tickets, no line at all.
Quote: Wizard
Let me pose this question to the forum. Please try to answer honestly. How many tickets would you buy at a jackpot of $500 million and also $1 billion?
I'd like to follow up with an explanation from anyone whose numbers differ. Even if I decided to hit the demolition derby tour using only numbers matching Hemi Cuda's as my steeds, I don't think I could ever spend $500mm in my lifetime. Having double that would make no difference in my life whatsoever.
Perhaps others have more lofty goals =p
Personally, the number of tickets I would buy wouldn't change, and for that exact reason. I did buy one for last night's drawing, first time I ever bought a ticket. The c-store was on my route and I had to make a delivery, for whatever reason I happened to notice the PB sign upon entering, and when I bought a Twix, I had two $1 bills left over. "I should buy" popped in my head and I didn't try to stop it. Hell, $2 would get me 2 solid days of daydreaming through my route, and that was easily worth the price of admission. I have no plans to take part in this next, but then I didn't have plans to take part in the last. If I do, it'll be another single ticket. I enjoyed the daydreaming =)
On a curious note, the random numbers assigned to me were spookily relevant. 5 of the 6 numbers had deep, significant meaning to me. Had I been in the position of needing to make a numerical password, the numbers I got on my ticket would have exactly mirrored said password, as they all mean that much. My all time favorite hockey player, the number I wore my rookie season of football, the answer to life, the universe and everything, the number I wore in my breakout year of football, the number I wore in my all-state season of baseball, the number I've worn for 17 years of hockey that also graces my race car... kinda weird that they all had that deep of meaning. Even that entertained me $2 worth.
As a comparison, and to answer the Wiz question above.Quote: JohnnyQI bought mine at a small discount grocery/close-out type store at the customer service desk. There was never a line that I saw. Yeah, I've seen the news coverage of the lines at other outlets, I guess across from the border of a state that isn't in it ? ? ?Quote: WizardAccording to LottoReport, there were 440,321,172 tickets sold (dividing dollar sales by 2). That is much less than my estimate of 1,171,462,570. The reason I assume for the difference is the machines can print tickets only so fast and approached their limit.
Our results:
2 Tickets
We hit 0 of any of the Numbers.
There were no duplicate Numbers on either ticket.
I bought one ticket, I'll prolly buy another.
I had one number this time.
That doesn't make me closer to a winner than you, but I lost $2 less ;-)
<edit> In the chance the game is rigged, I may buy 2 tickets for the next drawing.
One quick pick, and one set with exactly the same numbers they drew last night....
The real question is... who in their right mind is going to buy a Mega Millions ticket?
Quote: ahiromu
The real question is... who in their right mind is going to buy a Mega Millions ticket?
My mom. "Everyone's playing PB, so my odds of MM went up" =)
a) Two tickets for the $ 500 mil dwg, just based on all the media hype and to some small extent the discussion on this very forum - for yesterday's dwg.Quote: Wizard
Let me pose this question to the forum. Please try to answer honestly. How many tickets would you buy at a jackpot of $500 million and also $1 billion?
I have purchased lotto tix before, but not very often. I may have purchased a Powerball ticket once or twice before in my life.
b) Maybe 4 tickets. There are 4 of us in our family.
ps: If I read the Publisher's Clearing House ad correctly in this week's Parade Magazine insert to the Sunday paper, the odds of winning their Grand Prize is estimated to be 1 in 1.7 Billion. Yep, Billion with a B.
BUT...1 billion....hey that's getting into Donald Trump kind of money. Whatever day we are spending in Henderson this week, maybe I will direct partner/chauffer to head for the Arizona border. :)
Quote: WizardLet me pose this question to the forum. Please try to answer honestly. How many tickets would you buy at a jackpot of $500 million and also $1 billion?
Zero. Didn't for yesterday's and am not for this Wednesdays. Again, just way to much variance.
Yeah, if you want variance, you might as well play $5 ten-play Ultimate X Double Double Bonus poker -- with much better odds! (Most you could win would be $2.4 million -- but I'd be pretty happy with that).Quote: IbeatyouracesZero. Didn't for yesterday's and am not for this Wednesdays. Again, just way to much variance.
Where is there an outlet in Arizona? I don't remember anything after the Hoover Dam bridge until about halfway to Kingman -- there is a little general store, but I'm not sure they even have lotto.Quote: kewljThere are long lines at the outlets just over the California and Arizona border (Arizona is closer to Vegas), but it just doesn't seem to appealing to me to go to all that trouble and expense.
Quote: teddys
Where is there an outlet in Arizona? I don't remember anything after the Hoover Dam bridge until about halfway to Kingman -- there is a little general store, but I'm not sure they even have lotto.
Rosie's is a little bar/restaurant that sells tickets. It burned down a few years ago but they rebuilt it.
Rosie's Den Cafe
Address: 19949 US-93, White Hills, AZ 86445
Phone:(928) 767-3348
Hours: Open today · 6:00 AM – 8:00 PM
Quote: DRichRosie's is a little bar/restaurant that sells tickets. It burned down a few years ago but they rebuilt it.
Rosie's Den Cafe
Address: 19949 US-93, White Hills, AZ 86445
Phone:(928) 767-3348
Hours: Open today · 6:00 AM – 8:00 PM
Quote: teddys
Where is there an outlet in Arizona? I don't remember anything after the Hoover Dam bridge until about halfway to Kingman -- there is a little general store, but I'm not sure they even have lotto.
FYI, Arizona takes out 6% tax for non-resident lottery winners where California doesn't take any.
http://taxfoundation.org/article/lottery-tax-rates-vary-greatly-state
Quote: WizardThanks. Maybe the limit to printer speed isn't the issue but a cap on the most tickets anybody feels comfortable buying. Whatever the case, my exponential demand curve, which I've trusted for years, didn't fit yesterday's drawing.
Let me pose this question to the forum. Please try to answer honestly. How many tickets would you buy at a jackpot of $500 million and also $1 billion?
Wizard, would you be willing to share your calculations for your demand curve? I suspect that as the pot gets bigger, the demand continues to flatten and become more inelastic with rate of increase only bound by income limitations. I assume your curve looks something similar whereby demand is flat at low pots, sloping up as the pot gets bigger, and then leveling off as we reach larger numbers.
"But out of the 102 Powerball winners in the last seven years, only one chose the larger, but deferred, jackpot..... took the $228 million annuity prize.
Unfortunately, there are lots of stories about lottery winners who blow through their winnings only to end up paupers just a few years later.
One of them was Andrew "Jack" Whittaker of West Virginia, who took a $170 million lump sum in 2002. But after that he was robbed often, including one time when he had a brief case full of cash stolen from him at a strip club. Today he's nearly 70 years old and still has to work, and says he wishes he had taken the annuity payments".
Source
I'd head to a strip bar with a suitcase full of cash..... Maybe 2 suitcases....;-)
Quote: teddys
Where is there an outlet in Arizona? I don't remember anything after the Hoover Dam bridge until about halfway to Kingman -- there is a little general store, but I'm not sure they even have lotto.
Don't know. On the local news the other night there was a story that said the closest powerball sales outlet was just across the border in Arizona. I haven't really looked into it.
Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyWizard, would you be willing to share your calculations for your demand curve? I suspect that as the pot gets bigger, the demand continues to flatten and become more inelastic with rate of increase only bound by income limitations. I assume your curve looks something similar whereby demand is flat at low pots, sloping up as the pot gets bigger, and then leveling off as we reach larger numbers.
Have fun writing a demand/tickets sold equation with arctan.
I bought one for the this past drawing. I'll probably buy one for this next drawing. Maybe more, but definitely fewer than 6 total. Wizard, with the jackpot estimated at $1.3B, do we get a discount on the 5 push-ups? I'm thinking maybe 1 or 2.Quote: WizardLet me pose this question to the forum. Please try to answer honestly. How many tickets would you buy at a jackpot of $500 million and also $1 billion?
I was just having a discussion with Mrs. Joeman today. I said that I'd rather win a smaller jackpot, maybe around $50M than a $1B+ jackpot. She kind of scoffed at the argument, so I asked what she would do/buy with $1B that she couldn't with only $50M. She couldn't come up with a thing.
For instance, this Wed, the FL Lotto ($1 ticket; pick 6 out of 53 -- 1: 22.9 million odds for the jackpot) has a drawing with a $31 M jackpot. With all the hype around the big jackpot winners, I think a $31M winner could remain relatively anonymous. And I can't imagine I could live anymore comfortably with $1B+ than with $31M (probably ~$18M as a lump sum).
Plus the ticket is 1/2 as much as PB, and winning is over 12x as likely.
Quote: DRichRosie's is a little bar/restaurant that sells tickets. It burned down a few years ago but they rebuilt it.
I was curious so I measured the distance from downtown Las Vegas to the following places to buy lottery tickets:
Rosie's Den: 59.1 miles
Primm: 42.7 miles
However, I suspect the lines are a lot shorter at Rosies when the jackpot gets newsworthy.
Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyWizard, would you be willing to share your calculations for your demand curve? I suspect that as the pot gets bigger, the demand continues to flatten and become more inelastic with rate of increase only bound by income limitations. I assume your curve looks something similar whereby demand is flat at low pots, sloping up as the pot gets bigger, and then leveling off as we reach larger numbers.
I'd be happy to; thanks for asking. Until yesterday in my many years studying the lottery an exponential demand by jackpot size curve always fit quite nicely. This was true for any lottery.
Here is what my chart looked like since the Powerball went up to 69 balls on October 7 to the Jan 6 drawing.
Putting in a jackpot of 950 million into the least-squared demand curve shown above led to predicted sales of 1,546,436,154 tickets. In fact, there were only 440,321,172 sold.
Here is what an exponential demand curve would like with the Jan 9 drawing included.
Clearly the data doesn't fit it very well.
BTW, the get the curve in Excel, first create a graph (mine is an X-Y graph), right click the data points on the graph, select "add trend line," and then select "exponential." To see the equation of the curve, select "show equation on chart."
So, what to do with the aberrant Jan 9 drawing? I haven't decided yet. I think I'll wait to see what the sales are for the Jan 13 drawing first.
Quote: kewljDid I read no one won again? I haven't played because Nevada is one of only 6 states that doesn't participate. I guess the powers that be don't want to share the publics gambling budget with the lotteries. There are long lines at the outlets just over the California and Arizona border (Arizona is closer to Vegas), but it just doesn't seem to appealing to me to go to all that trouble and expense. Unless you are buying many tickets the cost per ticket ration would be unattractively high.
BUT...1 billion....hey that's getting into Donald Trump kind of money. Whatever day we are spending in Henderson this week, maybe I will direct partner/chauffer to head for the Arizona border. :)
Go to Last stop in Arizona. You will not have to wait in line. Yesterday I bought a preprinted $20 ten quick pick ticket from an employee outside. Today I didn't see the employee outside, so I walked in past the line and bought a $20 quick pick from the normal cashier. In and out both times. First time playing. I just can't help myself. If I win each active member of the site can have a $1000. ;-)
Last Stop is that alien themed gas station convenience store with machine guns and 4 wheel vehicles just a few miles outside of the Lake Mead Recreation area. Less than 100 mile roundtrip from Downtown.
I think the current estimate of 1.3B is quite low, since it would get that high if sales stay flat from yesterday's drawing.
I'm going to guess a jackpot of 1.8-2B and 3-4 winners, although it's tough to know what people will do.
Quote: MaxPenIf I win each active member of the site can have a $1000. ;-)
Woohoo, freerolling :-D
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/16171-so-whos-playing-the-mega-millions/6/#post299921
I would be interested to hear if the numbers you are now crunching may bear that out. Especially if it rolls on Wednesday to next Saturday.
Quote: MidwestAPQuote: CoastalI'm in for the office pool and a couple on the side. A fun read for those who need some more warnings and advice about what to do if you win. (some language NSFW).
Interesting article. If I won, there are a couple steps I'd take even before retaining an attorney.
1) As suggested, don't tell anyone, the attorney should be the first
2) Sign the ticket front and back
3) Photo copy the signed ticket, front and back
4) Take a picture of yourself holding the signed ticket
5) Secure the ticket in a fireproof location outside of your house, a safe deposit box in a non flood zone would work.
6) Seek an attorney
you better make sure there is no term in the back that says something like:
ticket void if marked/defaced in any way or form
Quote: MaxPenFirst time playing. I just can't help myself. If I win each active member of the site can have a $1000. ;-)
Last Stop is that alien themed gas station convenience store with machine guns and 4 wheel vehicles just a few miles outside of the Lake Mead Recreation area. Less than 100 mile roundtrip from Downtown.
Thanx for info MaxPen. Since I haven't played...yet...I haven't allowed myself the luxury of fantasizing about winnings. Probably not giving anything to members of the forum though....sorry gang, you are on your own.
In the spirit of dreaming though, I only need about 10 million (after taxes) for myself. Enough to buy a property a little more secluded than where I am now at. Planning on paying off my mortgage next month, I soon will be working towards that goal anyway. Somewhere along mountains edge or some place where my neighbors are more than 40 feet away. I hate these communities with little yard, especially on the sides, where the next house is too close. The balance would go into an investment that would provide annual income.
In addition, I would like about 10 million for friends and family. Enough to set up maybe a dozen or so close friends and family members with a million bucks each. I don't want to give them anymore than that. Not looking to set them up for life...just enough to do a little something to change their life a little bit, maybe start a business or whatever. I could probably expand that list up towards 20 people if I thought about it and had enough.
Anymore than that and honestly, I would donate to less fortunate and causes helping less fortunate. Something a little bigger scale than I am currently able to do. Maybe build some housing and provide some scholarships and stuff. Foundation type stuff. :)
Quote: WizardI'd be happy to; thanks for asking. Until yesterday in my many years studying the lottery an exponential demand by jackpot size curve always fit quite nicely. This was true for any lottery.
Here is what my chart looked like since the Powerball went up to 69 balls on October 7 to the Jan 6 drawing.
Putting in a jackpot of 950 million into the least-squared demand curve shown above led to predicted sales of 1,546,436,154 tickets. In fact, there were only 440,321,172 sold.
Here is what an exponential demand curve would like with the Jan 9 drawing included.
Clearly the data doesn't fit it very well.
BTW, the get the curve in Excel, first create a graph (mine is an X-Y graph), right click the data points on the graph, select "add trend line," and then select "exponential." To see the equation of the curve, select "show equation on chart."
So, what to do with the aberrant Jan 9 drawing? I haven't decided yet. I think I'll wait to see what the sales are for the Jan 13 drawing first.
Thanks for sharing Wizard!! I love curve fitting. Brings back very good solid memories of debating different fitting methodologies during the credit crisis. A couple of observations, which I'm sure you noticed in the fitting as well:
1.) Best fit based on least squares works well when the distribution of the datapoints are tight.
2.) Fitting accuracy breaks down at the extremes. Modeling derivatives on mortgages, prepayments, stochastic volatility is a nightmare when you go out to either max prepay or tenor. (I did not cause the financial crisis, but I could tell you there were a lot of screwed up models floating around on Wall Street and a lack of common sense.)
3.) I'd be inclined to guestimate that the demand curve looks more like the following based on inelasticity of income.
You can't suddenly increase disposable income to purchase more tickets. Also, there are supply constraints like locking up a terminal and printing out as many tickets as you can. So therefore, I would suspect that the max number of tickets sold can not rise at the same proportional rate that is used for the least squared methodology.
Hence, at the extremes, a logarithmic function becomes more appropriate, which is a similar technique and methodology used in modeling financial derivatives :-D
Thanks Wiz, got my brain juices going.
Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyYou can't suddenly increase disposable income to purchase more tickets....
Good stuff! I think you've been flying under the radar around here. Maybe you don't want to be called a "mathlete."
Sounds to me like you are suggesting logistic regression. That is what my prop bet calculator is based on. I was thinking about that earlier today. However, there isn't some maximum sales to bump into on the upper end. I tend to think at the upper end ticket sales become logarithmic, but with no maximum.
The next drawing is only three days away. Whatever work I might do between now and then would just become obsolete after we see the 1/13 sales figures. I still plan to wait until then and then lets see where we stand.
Big picture -- I don't think the average lottery player gives a hoot that the odds of winning changed from 1 in 175 million to 1 in 292 million. Likewise, I don't think they care much about the difference between winning 950 million and 1.3 billion. At this point, you just want to be in the game. You see other people buying tickets on the news and don't want to be left out.
If forced to a guess, I'm going to predict half a billion in ticket sales for Wednesday's drawing. This comes totally out of my .... intuition.
Quote: Wizard
If forced to a guess, I'm going to predict half a billion in ticket sales for Wednesday's drawing. This comes totally out of my .... intuition.
Did you factor in an extra day of sales for this drawing? I am going to predict that sales are flat or slightly less for this drawing because the major demographic for players spent a considerable amount of their disposable income on the last drawing.
Quote: IbeatyouracesI'd like to know what the exact number of different combinations were picked compared to the total number of combinations.
I have to double check, but I think ony 75% of the possible combinations were purchased in the last drawing.
I suspect the size of the prize will bring in larger corporate players, and even international money. We are moving beyond disposable income. I expect there will be folks sinking future income into the game. They're lottery players, not credit counselors.
Quote: DRichDid you factor in an extra day of sales for this drawing?
I thought of that, but I don't think it will matter much. If you want to buy tickets you'll find a way, whether you have three days or four.
Quote: WizardGood stuff! I think you've been flying under the radar around here. Maybe you don't want to be called a "mathlete."
Sounds to me like you are suggesting logistic regression. That is what my prop bet calculator is based on. I was thinking about that earlier today. However, there isn't some maximum sales to bump into on the upper end. I tend to think at the upper end ticket sales become logarithmic, but with no maximum.
The next drawing is only three days away. Whatever work I might do between now and then would just become obsolete after we see the 1/13 sales figures. I still plan to wait until then and then lets see where we stand.
Big picture -- I don't think the average lottery player gives a hoot that the odds of winning changed from 1 in 175 million to 1 in 292 million. Likewise, I don't think they care much about the difference between winning 950 million and 1.3 billion. At this point, you just want to be in the game. You see other people buying tickets on the news and don't want to be left out.
If forced to a guess, I'm going to predict half a billion in ticket sales for Wednesday's drawing. This comes totally out of my .... intuition.
Thank you Wizard for the awesome compliment! Mathlete in disguise. By the way, I just got promoted recently. Perhaps things are looking up to a rough start to the year?
If you're interested in determining a max value, many financial equations confine the possible range of values for an equation to be between 0 and 1, and from there the logarithmic regression works its magic. However, I think we can make a rudimentary approximation as to the possible max sales figure under the following assumptions:
A.) Total number of lotto machines out there.
B.) Average # of tickets printed per hour assuming the machines run buck wild.
C.) Most lotto retailers are not allowed to sell tickets past a certain time. I believe it's like 10pm or 11pm in NY. There is a cutoff time.
D.) (Total # of hours of printing tickets) * Avg # of tickets printed per hour * total number of machines = max total possible sales.
You can't exceed, what you can not print.
