Powerball at 400 Million
Poll
 | 30 votes (48.38%) | ||
| | 7 votes (11.29%) | ||
| | 15 votes (24.19%) | ||
| | 4 votes (6.45%) | ||
| | 6 votes (9.67%) |
62 members have voted
January 13th, 2016 at 7:23:38 PM
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Quote: BobEYou may be right. It's been about 50 years since my college statistics classes. However, my theory is this:
The original pool had 600 million entries. The probabilities were based on that entire pool. You just removed 1 entry from that pool which was a winner. The remainder of the pool now has a distribution that is skewed from the original. The probability that there were no winners in the original pool is now 0. So that 13% probability has to be removed. So we're left with determining a revised breakdown of the 87% probability that remains. Because of the large size of the pool I would guess that prorating the remaining probabilities would be close to correct. That would mean that the probability of no more winners would be the original probability of 1 winner (26%) divided by the remaining probability (87%) which equals about 30%.
However, I can't offer any proof.
If there is a fixed pool, like scratch off tickets, then you can infer something about the remaining tickets. In Powerball, you cannot. Let's just say there were 292 million tickets sold and you won. You wouldn't be willing to say that it is now impossible for anyone else to win, just because you happen to have a winner.
I heart Crystal Math.
January 13th, 2016 at 7:30:26 PM
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Just for fun I'll pick...
3, 25, 45, 47, 59, PB 8
3, 25, 45, 47, 59, PB 8
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 13th, 2016 at 7:53:55 PM
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With sales falling rather flat (about 500MM tickets based on the estimated jackpot), given the size of the jackpot, the ev of the top prize is about 76% (gross ev of cash option). Funny, it's a lower ev than an 800 Million dollar jackpot.
If there are any winners, it will likely be 1 or 2, with about a 1 in 15 chance of 3 winners. Of course, that assumes the winners didn't use fortune cookie numbers. There's about 18% chance of no winner, which I'd like to see, and I suspect the ev will increase again. If sales stay flat again, it will be about 100% gross ev.
If there are any winners, it will likely be 1 or 2, with about a 1 in 15 chance of 3 winners. Of course, that assumes the winners didn't use fortune cookie numbers. There's about 18% chance of no winner, which I'd like to see, and I suspect the ev will increase again. If sales stay flat again, it will be about 100% gross ev.
I heart Crystal Math.
January 13th, 2016 at 8:01:10 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesJust for fun I'll pick...
3, 25, 45, 47, 59, PB 8
4, 8, 19, 27, 34, PB 10.
I saved money, whew!!
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 13th, 2016 at 8:06:42 PM
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Crap, I'll never buy another ticket.
(unless no wins this jackpot, then maybe one more!)
(unless no wins this jackpot, then maybe one more!)
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
January 13th, 2016 at 8:23:44 PM
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Quote: CrystalMathIf there is a fixed pool, like scratch off tickets, then you can infer something about the remaining tickets. In Powerball, you cannot. Let's just say there were 292 million tickets sold and you won. You wouldn't be willing to say that it is now impossible for anyone else to win, just because you happen to have a winner.
But there was an assumed fixed pool of 600 million. And I didn't assume there would be NO other winners (just 30%). If the pool was 292 million tickets and I won, the probabilities would be different, but that wouldn't imply there could be NO other winners. It would just raise the probability of no other winners.
January 13th, 2016 at 8:24:07 PM
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Quote: Ibeatyouraces4, 8, 19, 27, 34, PB 10.
Low numbers. Glad I didn't buy tickets with my strategy of picking all numbers greater than 31.
I admit I'm selfish in saying that I also hope nobody won.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 13th, 2016 at 8:36:50 PM
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One cannot "invest" in 401(k)'s that way. It has to involve an employer:Quote: GWAEIf I invest 5 million a year in 401k type plan with part being low, medium, and high wouldn't we come out better in the end?
"(a) Requirements for qualification. A trust created or organized in the United States and forming part of a stock bonus, pension, or profit-sharing plan of an employer for the exclusive benefit of his employees or their beneficiaries shall constitute a qualified trust under this section—
(1) if contributions are made to the trust by such employer, or employees, or both, or by another employer who is entitled to deduct his contributions under section 404(a)(3)(B) (relating to deduction for contributions to profit-sharing and stock bonus plans), or by a charitable remainder trust pursuant to a qualified gratuitous transfer (as defined in section 664(g)(1)), for the purpose of distributing to such employees or their beneficiaries the corpus and income of the fund accumulated by the trust in accordance with such plan;"
The general details are actually in Section 401(a) of the Internal Revenue Code. The following sections include important laws like the all-important limit on contributions.
January 13th, 2016 at 9:03:58 PM
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Chino Hills, CA
NYT Article, get article by googling: Winning Powerball Ticket Sold in California, for Largest Jackpot
NYT Article, get article by googling: Winning Powerball Ticket Sold in California, for Largest Jackpot
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
January 13th, 2016 at 9:08:37 PM
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Quote: ahiromuChino Hills, CA
NYT Article, get article by googling: Winning Powerball Ticket Sold in California, for Largest Jackpot
Watch it be Alan so he can come here and tell us where to shove those astronomical odds ;-)
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 13th, 2016 at 9:18:33 PM
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Isn't chino. Wayyyyyy north of Alan or is that Chico ?
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
January 13th, 2016 at 9:20:21 PM
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Dunno. I don't think he'd frequent a 7/11 either. Plus, he said he didn't win on his forum.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 13th, 2016 at 9:27:13 PM
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Would have been an absolutely amazing story - I am going to run and buy ticket for next drawing -1 number and leave it on my girlfriends side of the bed
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
January 13th, 2016 at 9:54:14 PM
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Watch this person get their own reality show.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
January 13th, 2016 at 9:57:31 PM
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Used Powerball ticket for sale. Now 50% off.
Condition: Very fine
Description: This one of kind ticket was from the first US billion dollar Powerball drawing. In about a week it will be one of the few surviving tickets from the biggest lotto drawing in US history. Millions and millions were produced. IN a month, this and one other ticket will likely be the only ones left. So, soon to be extremely RARE.
Condition: Very fine
Description: This one of kind ticket was from the first US billion dollar Powerball drawing. In about a week it will be one of the few surviving tickets from the biggest lotto drawing in US history. Millions and millions were produced. IN a month, this and one other ticket will likely be the only ones left. So, soon to be extremely RARE.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
January 13th, 2016 at 10:01:41 PM
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Losing tickets up to $25 can be exchanged for free slot play at the Plaza.
January 14th, 2016 at 2:13:53 AM
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How to AP the lottery:
January 14th, 2016 at 5:57:32 AM
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Here is my updated graph of ticket sales by jackpot size.
I'm open to ideas of a curve to fit this data. As I've mentioned many times, an exponential curve worked great through the Jan 6 jackpot of $529 million. However, if you continued to follow that curve, it would have vastly overstated sales for the Jan 9 and 13 jackpots of $958 and $1580 million.
Logistic regression has been mentioned before, but the curve flattens out a lot faster on the small jackpot size than the large. Basically, the curve starts out exponential and then changes to what looks like logarithmic. Thoughts?
Link: Powerball jackpot sizes and sales. Remember the rules changed on Oct 7. You may or may not wish to factor in the fact that some drawing have three days to buy tickets and others four. I lean toward ignoring that.
I'm open to ideas of a curve to fit this data. As I've mentioned many times, an exponential curve worked great through the Jan 6 jackpot of $529 million. However, if you continued to follow that curve, it would have vastly overstated sales for the Jan 9 and 13 jackpots of $958 and $1580 million.
Logistic regression has been mentioned before, but the curve flattens out a lot faster on the small jackpot size than the large. Basically, the curve starts out exponential and then changes to what looks like logarithmic. Thoughts?
Link: Powerball jackpot sizes and sales. Remember the rules changed on Oct 7. You may or may not wish to factor in the fact that some drawing have three days to buy tickets and others four. I lean toward ignoring that.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 14th, 2016 at 6:16:56 AM
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Let me run this up the flagpole to see if anybody salutes:
This shows an exponential curve through the Jan 6 drawing and a logarithmic one from Jan 6 to Jan 13. What do you think? For future jackpots, just go with the exponential curve for jackpots smaller than $529 million and the logarithmic one above. Better ideas?
This shows an exponential curve through the Jan 6 drawing and a logarithmic one from Jan 6 to Jan 13. What do you think? For future jackpots, just go with the exponential curve for jackpots smaller than $529 million and the logarithmic one above. Better ideas?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 14th, 2016 at 6:56:15 AM
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Mike, try a translation of part of the inverse tangent function. I think exp follows by log is too arbitrary.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
January 14th, 2016 at 7:07:39 AM
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I have heard there are three winning tickets. What are the chances that at least one of these is not redeemed?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 14th, 2016 at 7:39:30 AM
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If you bought a ticket for this record setting powerball, I'll take the over on that they all 3 redeem it.Quote: DRichI have heard there are three winning tickets. What are the chances that at least one of these is not redeemed?
I can't believe I didn't win... WHAT ARE THE ODDS?!?! ;)
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 14th, 2016 at 7:42:16 AM
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I bought a winning ticket at a 7-11 in CA........$5 for matching the 10 as the Powerball. So I lost $15 overall. I'll live. And thus ends my lottery playing...until the next huge jackpot.
January 14th, 2016 at 7:51:52 AM
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Quote: BobEBut there was an assumed fixed pool of 600 million. And I didn't assume there would be NO other winners (just 30%). If the pool was 292 million tickets and I won, the probabilities would be different, but that wouldn't imply there could be NO other winners. It would just raise the probability of no other winners.
My point is, unless there is a fixed pool, your ticket has no influence on the remaining tickets.
I heart Crystal Math.
January 14th, 2016 at 8:30:14 AM
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Quote: teliotMike, try a translation of part of the inverse tangent function. I think exp follows by log is too arbitrary.
Thanks. We can see that the function is asymptotic to zero, the demand should keep going infinitely as the jackpot grows. Maybe that is where the "translation" comes in. If anybody would care to suggest specifics, I'm all ears. This isn't a math puzzle, but a group effort.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 14th, 2016 at 8:37:49 AM
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Since lotto tickets and scratchers came about over 30 years ago I've spent maybe $20 on them; all in the first few years.
Yesterday, I went to a sales meeting related to my job and won a $2 Powerball ticket as a door prize. Didn't get one number.
Have a friend that tells me that he spends about $14 a week on these types of tickets. He confided in me that he's spent about $30,000 in thirty years chasing the big win.
Yesterday, I went to a sales meeting related to my job and won a $2 Powerball ticket as a door prize. Didn't get one number.
Have a friend that tells me that he spends about $14 a week on these types of tickets. He confided in me that he's spent about $30,000 in thirty years chasing the big win.
January 14th, 2016 at 8:41:31 AM
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While demand could be considered infinite as the jackpot grows super huge, it actually isn't. There is a relatively fixed number of players in the world; with a non-infinite amount of cash to buy tickets. There is also a maximum capacity of the system to produce tickets between drawings. The curve has to flatten out as the jackpot grows, and in fact should be expected to fall as time goes on, and losing players run out of money to keep buying back in.Quote: WizardThanks. We can see that the function is asymptotic to zero, the demand should keep going infinitely as the jackpot grows. Maybe that is where the "translation" comes in. If anybody would care to suggest specifics, I'm all ears. This isn't a math puzzle, but a group effort.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
January 14th, 2016 at 9:00:02 AM
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What's interesting is, because there have been
so many big winners in the last 25 years, we know
that after about a year their level of happiness is
about the same, or lower, as it was before they won.
And all the problems they had before they
won, are either still there or have been replaced
by a whole new set of problems.
Quoting one of the Vanderbilt women from the
last century: "The difference between the rich
and the poor is, the poor think money will help.
The rich know it will not." Rich or poor, we are
who we are, and the high we get with the ability
to buy new toys wears off very quickly and we're
stuck with who we are again. The Beverly Hillbillies
portrayed this very well. They went from dirt poor
to super rich and their surroundings changed,
but who they were did not. They were now rich
clueless hicks instead of poor clueless bumpkins.
so many big winners in the last 25 years, we know
that after about a year their level of happiness is
about the same, or lower, as it was before they won.
And all the problems they had before they
won, are either still there or have been replaced
by a whole new set of problems.
Quoting one of the Vanderbilt women from the
last century: "The difference between the rich
and the poor is, the poor think money will help.
The rich know it will not." Rich or poor, we are
who we are, and the high we get with the ability
to buy new toys wears off very quickly and we're
stuck with who we are again. The Beverly Hillbillies
portrayed this very well. They went from dirt poor
to super rich and their surroundings changed,
but who they were did not. They were now rich
clueless hicks instead of poor clueless bumpkins.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 14th, 2016 at 9:31:21 AM
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Quote: EvenBob... They were now rich
clueless hicks instead of poor clueless bumpkins.
If I had a choice, I would rather be a rich clueless hick than a poor clueless bumpkin.
While there are lotto horror stories, there isn't much news about the winners who are now living happy, productive, comfortable lives. Is this because there aren't any? I don't think so. My suspicion is that it isn't interesting enough for the media. Sort of a "Breaking News: The Sun Came Up This Morning"
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
January 14th, 2016 at 9:55:16 AM
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Quote: WizardThanks. We can see that the function is asymptotic to zero, the demand should keep going infinitely as the jackpot grows. Maybe that is where the "translation" comes in. If anybody would care to suggest specifics, I'm all ears. This isn't a math puzzle, but a group effort.
Keep plotting the data points, and then write an equation that matches the previous results.
See if it is predictive.
Add in the price of gold at each data point, just for fun ;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
January 14th, 2016 at 10:05:51 AM
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I think it was said before here, but I like Mark Cuban's comments about winning the lottery & happiness:
"If you weren’t happy yesterday you won’t be happy tomorrow. It’s money. It’s not happiness.
If you were happy yesterday, you are going to be a lot happier tomorrow. It’s money. Life gets easier when you don’t have to worry about the bills."
"If you weren’t happy yesterday you won’t be happy tomorrow. It’s money. It’s not happiness.
If you were happy yesterday, you are going to be a lot happier tomorrow. It’s money. Life gets easier when you don’t have to worry about the bills."
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
January 14th, 2016 at 10:46:55 AM
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For everyone you successfully discouraged from buying a ticket with your math and owing push-upsQuote: Wizard
you owe a push-up because (as I suspected. I was thinking a drawing for losing tickets) casinos are offering various promotions.
I didn't catch the location
I heard you could turn in your losing ticket for $25 in FP.
Some might say Wizard = +EV and dream killer .☺☺
Friends send losing tickets.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
January 14th, 2016 at 10:59:52 AM
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Quote: JoemanI think it was said before here, but I like Mark Cuban's comments about winning the lottery & happiness:
"If you weren’t happy yesterday you won’t be happy tomorrow. It’s money. It’s not happiness.
If you were happy yesterday, you are going to be a lot happier tomorrow. It’s money. Life gets easier when you don’t have to worry about the bills."
Poor and unhappy
Poor and happy
Rich and unhappy
Rich and happy
pick one. NEVER will I pick the first 2 choices. Being broke sucks.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
January 14th, 2016 at 11:03:33 AM
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Wasn't it "up to" $25 in free play, and wasn't it just the amount you spent back in FP? Few friends and I each through $4 bucks at it, so I have 2 tickets of $10 each, if you really want them =P.Quote: AxelWolfFor everyone you successfully discouraged from buying a ticket with your math and owing push-ups
you owe a push-up because (as I suspected. I was thinking a drawing for losing tickets) casinos are offering various promotions.
I didn't catch the location
I heard you could turn in your losing ticket for $25 in FP.
Some might say Wizard = +EV and dream killer .☺☺
Friends send losing tickets.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:07:10 AM
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Quote: Joeman
If you were happy yesterday, you are going to be a lot happier tomorrow. It’s money. Life gets easier when you don’t have to worry about the bills."
Yes, but 'tomorrow' doesn't last. You soon get
used to the novelty of not having to worry
about the bills. The point is, whatever your
happiness or unhappiness quotient was before
the money, in a year or so you will be right
back there. I would hate it, that's why I never
buy a ticket. It's not spending money that's
satisfying, it's doing something productive
to get the money and then spending it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 14th, 2016 at 11:10:08 AM
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I think having an obscene amount of money and being able to do good with it via intelligent charitable purpose giving would be very satisfying.
January 14th, 2016 at 11:40:56 AM
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Quote: ParadigmI think having an obscene amount of money and being able to do good with it via intelligent charitable purpose giving would be very satisfying.
^
January 14th, 2016 at 11:41:57 AM
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What's considered the lowest amount of money one would need (let's say in the Las Vegas area) to have no worries of bills for the rest of their lives? inb4$3.50
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
January 14th, 2016 at 12:17:05 PM
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$3 millionQuote: djatcWhat's considered the lowest amount of money one would need (let's say in the Las Vegas area) to have no worries of bills for the rest of their lives? inb4$3.50
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 14th, 2016 at 12:23:11 PM
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Quote: djatcWhat's considered the lowest amount of money one would need (let's say in the Las Vegas area) to have no worries of bills for the rest of their lives? inb4$3.50
Shabby hole off Fremont st with a mattress and a chair, or something more?
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
January 14th, 2016 at 12:46:12 PM
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Quote: Romes$3 million
How do you figure?
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
January 14th, 2016 at 1:23:24 PM
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Poor bastards.... their ticket from this past Saturday matched last night's numbers exactly.
http://www.metro.us/new-york/video-new-jersey-restaurant-employees-mistakenly-believe-they-won-powerball/zsJpam---EcM7yiy9Ruwg/
http://www.metro.us/new-york/video-new-jersey-restaurant-employees-mistakenly-believe-they-won-powerball/zsJpam---EcM7yiy9Ruwg/
January 14th, 2016 at 2:32:20 PM
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I'm already counting that it'll get taxed as income, so let's say $2 million. $500,000 for a new house, maybe a car upgrade, new TV's or furniture (minimal things). Put the other $1.5 million in the bank or other low risk investment options and if you can get even 4-5% that's 60-80k per year, which I'm sure a decent accountant or tax lawyer could make sure you get the bulk of through capital gains taxing (20%). If you can't live off ~70k per year, you're doing something wrong.Quote: djatcHow do you figure?
Personally though with what I know now (this was always my plan when I was younger) I'd use a good chunk of it as a BR for more lucrative AP plays. It takes money to make money...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 14th, 2016 at 5:30:07 PM
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For everybody saying money doesn't buy happiness, please send me as much as you don't need.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 14th, 2016 at 5:40:02 PM
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Quote: WizardFor everybody saying money doesn't buy happiness, please send me as much as you don't need.
Money may not buy happiness, but it is much more comfortable to cry in a Lamborghini than on a bicycle.
This feeling is heavy, makes my body ache and I'm ready;
To fall into the sky and I see now, the reason why.
My heart is heavy, takes me to a place I can't breathe.
Only then I know why I see the warning sign.
January 14th, 2016 at 5:49:42 PM
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Quote: DodsferdMoney may not buy happiness, but it is much more comfortable to cry in a Lamborghini than on a bicycle.
I'd rather cry on a bicycle.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 14th, 2016 at 7:55:37 PM
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Quote: WizardI'd rather cry on a bicycle.
While juggling and cubing..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 15th, 2016 at 5:28:09 AM
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I believe there are studies showing people with money are generally happier. If someone has legitimate depression there's no amount of money that will help.Quote: DodsferdMoney may not buy happiness, but it is much more comfortable to cry in a Lamborghini than on a bicycle.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
January 15th, 2016 at 6:51:09 AM
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I was taught in economics class, and believe, that happiness is a function of log(wealth).
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 15th, 2016 at 7:35:46 AM
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Until the Jan 6, 2016 drawing when the jackpot closed at $529 million, I maintained that the optimal jackpot size to maximize expected value was about $650 million. If it got higher, it would induce too much demand and you would have to split a winning jackpot with too many competitors. This was based on my assumption of an exponential relationship between jackpot size and sales.
As I've said in other posts, this relationship has its limits. Here is my new formula for jackpot sales (in millions) by jackpot size (in millions):
If jackpot<529, then 7.9043*exp(0.005554*jackpot), else 419.88*ln(jackpot)-2450.5)
I'm not crazy about the "if" statement but am open to other specific ideas.
Given my new formula, I show no relative maximum. The value just keeps going up with jackpot size. At 5.85 billion, it actually turns positive after considering taxes. However, I have a feeling a may have to make adjustments to my curve if it ever gets close to that amount.
No particular question. Just wanted to announce that I have issued a formal correction. Pass the crow and the humble pie.
As I've said in other posts, this relationship has its limits. Here is my new formula for jackpot sales (in millions) by jackpot size (in millions):
If jackpot<529, then 7.9043*exp(0.005554*jackpot), else 419.88*ln(jackpot)-2450.5)
I'm not crazy about the "if" statement but am open to other specific ideas.
Given my new formula, I show no relative maximum. The value just keeps going up with jackpot size. At 5.85 billion, it actually turns positive after considering taxes. However, I have a feeling a may have to make adjustments to my curve if it ever gets close to that amount.
No particular question. Just wanted to announce that I have issued a formal correction. Pass the crow and the humble pie.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
