YouCanBetOnThat
YouCanBetOnThat
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December 23rd, 2013 at 2:21:51 PM permalink
The Fortune Pai Gow Poker Progressive Jackpot at Harrah's Rincon is no longer a +EV wager.

This particular $1.00 wager is listed under Fortune Pai Gow Poker Progressive - Version 2 on the Wizard's Pai Gow Poker Side Bets page. You'll see from the paytable that 10% of the total jackpot is paid to a player making five aces, while the entire jackpot is paid to a player making a seven-card straight flush (with or without the joker).

The jackpot got as high as $360,000 before someone was dealt a seven-card straight flush yesterday to take down the big prize. (The winning jackpot was somewhere around $350,000.)

On his page, the Wizard says:
Quote:

The value of the jackpot is 2.21% for each $10,000 in the meter. The break-even meter (where there house edge is exactly zero) is $243,011.06. I have yet to see a jackpot get anywhere near this high.


Using the Wizard's figures, I calculate that when the jackpot got to $360,000, the player EV was over +25% (albeit with crazy volatility).
YouCanBetOnThat.com, a podcast for the recreational gambler
bw
bw 
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December 23rd, 2013 at 2:40:25 PM permalink
35k for five aces is a nice hit. I hit 5 aces once, but no progressive, at least I got $2500.
teddys
teddys
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December 23rd, 2013 at 4:21:08 PM permalink
Well hell why wasn't I playing that instead of losing my ass on 99+% video poker?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Twirdman
Twirdman
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December 23rd, 2013 at 4:38:05 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Well hell why wasn't I playing that instead of losing my ass on 99+% video poker?



Just checked its a 125% at numbers quoted. Though its only a 1 dollar bet so even at 60 hands per hour its only worth 15 dollars per hour. This is using the 360k which was highest value quoted for it at 350k which he said is where its won it was about 123% and 13 dollars per hour. Though it also cost $8 an hour to play if your never banking and playing at only $5 level. So depending on table minimum you may or may not have had an actual advantage.
YouCanBetOnThat
YouCanBetOnThat
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December 23rd, 2013 at 4:51:22 PM permalink
Quote: Twirdman

Just checked its a 125% at numbers quoted. Though its only a 1 dollar bet so even at 60 hands per hour its only worth 15 dollars per hour. This is using the 360k which was highest value quoted for it at 350k which he said is where its won it was about 123% and 13 dollars per hour. Though it also cost $8 an hour to play if your never banking and playing at only $5 level. So depending on table minimum you may or may not have had an actual advantage.


The table minimum is usually $25, although during the day they often have one $15 table. Banking is in the zig zag pattern (dealer, player A, dealer, player B, etc.)

I'm wondering if team play would help improve the odds. The team fills the table, and each player bets the minimum and banks when it is his/her turn. (No commission is charged when a banking player beats another player; a banking player only has to pay commission on his winning bet against the house.)
YouCanBetOnThat.com, a podcast for the recreational gambler
Twirdman
Twirdman
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December 23rd, 2013 at 5:14:38 PM permalink
Quote: YouCanBetOnThat

The table minimum is usually $25, although during the day they often have one $15 table. Banking is in the zig zag pattern (dealer, player A, dealer, player B, etc.)

I'm wondering if team play would help improve the odds. The team fills the table, and each player bets the minimum and banks when it is his/her turn. (No commission is charged when a banking player beats another player; a banking player only has to pay commission on his winning bet against the house.)



So when a player is banking he is only person to pay commision right?

And half the hands are player backed. So over 30 hands a single player would pay 1.5 and the other 30 hands he'd pay 20.475 So 22 and since its only worth 15 no advantage there. If however you do it while its a 15 dollar table you have .9 for the hands that are player backed and 12.285 for the house is banking. For a total of 13 about taken and you can make 15 an hour from sidebet. So technically positive. Its same as playing heads up really only advantage is more hands. But really for 2 an hour not really a worthwhile play.
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