Texas lottery suspends game.
June 4th, 2013 at 9:52:22 AM
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Maybe someone figured out how to beat this game.
http://cdcgamingreports.com/texas-lottery-suspends-sales-for-all-or-nothing-ap/
http://cdcgamingreports.com/texas-lottery-suspends-sales-for-all-or-nothing-ap/
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
June 4th, 2013 at 11:51:34 AM
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Maybe some math guy was able to figure out it cost less to play all the combinations then the amount won? It can't just be the picking of more popular numbers as mentioned in the story. That would not affect a random draw over the long term.
ZCore13
ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
June 4th, 2013 at 11:53:26 AM
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Not sure it is that they are beating the game. Looks more of a case of impossible to balance the action. Happens on daily number games sometimes. Here in PA the state will close numbers with heavy play. If too many numbers get picked the unbalanced action could cause a huge loss no matter how high the HE.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
June 4th, 2013 at 12:02:14 PM
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It looks like they want to avoid having to pay out hundreds or thousands of $250,000 winners all at once in case all even/odd/low/high numbers are drawn, since the $250,000 prizes are guaranteed (not split from a finite pool in the event of multiple winners).
http://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/All_or_Nothing/How_to_Play_All_or_Nothing.html
http://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/All_or_Nothing/How_to_Play_All_or_Nothing.html
June 4th, 2013 at 12:16:39 PM
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Quote: JBIt looks like they want to avoid having to pay out hundreds or thousands of $250,000 winners all at once in case all even/odd/low/high numbers are drawn, since the $250,000 prizes are guaranteed (not split from a finite pool in the event of multiple winners).
http://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/All_or_Nothing/How_to_Play_All_or_Nothing.html
This is most likely it. If they came up all even then all tickets that had all even or all add would win $250k.
Man Babes #AxelFabulous
June 4th, 2013 at 12:19:57 PM
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Oh, man. That's a double-whammy since nothing also pays the top prize. So if they come up all even, the even bettors get $250k and so do the odd bettors.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
June 4th, 2013 at 1:19:29 PM
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Yes, but what are the chances of that happening? And also, every ticket that was not all odd or even would lose, which I'm sure is a huge majority.
It comes down to them not willing to accept the risk of an early onslaught of winners before a not very likely event happens. They are chicken. I deal with this kind of thing all the time. You have to have some steel huevos sometimes. :)
ZCore13
It comes down to them not willing to accept the risk of an early onslaught of winners before a not very likely event happens. They are chicken. I deal with this kind of thing all the time. You have to have some steel huevos sometimes. :)
ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
June 4th, 2013 at 1:26:37 PM
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Quote: Zcore13Maybe some math guy was able to figure out it cost less to play all the combinations then the amount won?
Some off-the-cuff math suggests 2.7 million combinations. At 2$ per ticket, there's 5.4m for a payout of 500k.
June 4th, 2013 at 1:31:08 PM
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There are also smaller prizes to consider, so it's not quite 5.4m for $500k. But yeah, its not net positive.
Also, the all even/odd/high/low options are quick picks that are right on the draw slip. That's just asking for trouble. The lotto is guaranteeing clusters of players with the same numbers. brilliant!
Also, the all even/odd/high/low options are quick picks that are right on the draw slip. That's just asking for trouble. The lotto is guaranteeing clusters of players with the same numbers. brilliant!
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
June 4th, 2013 at 1:37:21 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusThere are also smaller prizes to consider, so it's not quite 5.4m for $500k. But yeah, its not net positive.
Also, the all even/odd/high/low options are quick picks that are right on the draw slip. That's just asking for trouble. The lotto is guaranteeing clusters of players with the same numbers. brilliant!
The game name "ALL OR NOTHING" seems to imply there are no small prizes.
I am a robot.
June 4th, 2013 at 1:44:16 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleThe game name "ALL OR NOTHING" seems to imply there are no small prizes.
I can't speak to the marketing skill of the Texas lottery. But:
Edit: Since I'm on their page anyway, here's the number selection card with the handy quick pick options:
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
June 4th, 2013 at 1:44:32 PM
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Quote: VenthusSome off-the-cuff math suggests 2.7 million combinations. At 2$ per ticket, there's 5.4m for a payout of 500k.
I think it's actually half that -- 1 in 1,352,078, since 12 evens or 12 odds pays $250,000 to both All Even and All Odd bettors as miplet and rdw4potus pointed out. The chances of it happening are slim, but far from astronomical.
Some quick math based on their Sales and Revenue data estimates that about 643,343 tickets were bought for this game last week. While their lottery operator (GTECH) knows exactly what percentage of tickets are for the easy bets, we don't, so let's say that 1 in 100 players pick one of those options. If the players won, the lottery would be liable for $1.6 billion in payouts, which could crush them - and the percentage of people who make the odd/even/low/high bets is probably higher than 1%.
June 4th, 2013 at 1:56:29 PM
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I have foot in mouth disease today.
I am a robot.
June 4th, 2013 at 1:59:33 PM
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Quote: onenickelmiracleI have foot in mouth disease today.
I guess that's one step better than what poor Michael Douglas is dealing with? ;-)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
June 4th, 2013 at 2:12:15 PM
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Quote: JBI think it's actually half that -- 1 in 1,352,078, since 12 evens or 12 odds pays $250,000 to both All Even and All Odd bettors as rdw4potus pointed out. The chances of it happening are slim, but far from astronomical.
Some quick math based on their Sales and Revenue data estimates that about 643,343 tickets were bought for this game last week. While their lottery operator (GTECH) knows exactly what percentage of tickets are for the easy bets, we don't, so let's say that 1 in 100 players pick one of those options. If the players won, the lottery would be liable for $1.6 billion in payouts, which could crush them - and the percentage of people who make the odd/even/low/high bets is probably higher than 1%.
I don't believe their exposure is quite that high since the drawings take place 4 times per day.
This site shows the sales and payout for every day.
All_or_Nothing
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
June 4th, 2013 at 2:28:42 PM
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Quote: DRichI don't believe their exposure is quite that high since the drawings take place 4 times per day.
This site shows the sales and payout for every day.
All_or_Nothing
Talk about me missing the obvious! 643,343 tickets per week is about 23,000 tickets per drawing. With 1% (which I still think is lower than the actual rate) of those tickets playing the predefined 12-spot bets, their liability would be $57.5 million, but even that is still pretty hefty for a keno-type game.
June 4th, 2013 at 11:11:59 PM
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Is it bad I really wished all odds/evens/high/low would have came out to screw over Texas? lol
June 5th, 2013 at 4:07:33 AM
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Quote: rdw4potusI can't speak to the marketing skill of the Texas lottery. But:
It is early so I have to read this quick, and my prob/stat is rusty, but 11:1 chances to win a 2:1 prize? Is it my imagination or is this an 80% more-or-less house edge?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
June 5th, 2013 at 4:28:09 AM
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They may not have realized that certain numbers such as birthdays get alot of play so there is a distinct set of numbers that does not get play and anyone falling into the none category could collect. Unlikely perhaps but a risk they didn't want to run.
June 5th, 2013 at 6:48:43 AM
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No.Quote: AZDuffmanIt is early so I have to read this quick, and my prob/stat is rusty, but 11:1 chances to win a 2:1 prize? Is it my imagination or is this an 80% more-or-less house edge?
You have to consider ALL of the paylines that are available for your single bet.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
June 5th, 2013 at 8:11:42 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearNo.
You have to consider ALL of the paylines that are available for your single bet.
Sadly, it looks like a whopping 72% house edge after doing that!
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
June 5th, 2013 at 8:47:09 AM
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Quote: rdw4potusSadly, it looks like a whopping 72% house edge after doing that!
I'm getting a little more than 44%. Your $2 ticket has a return of $1.11964694344557
| Matches | Ways | Pays | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1 | 250000 | 0.092450287631335 |
| 11 | 144 | 500 | 0.026625682837824 |
| 10 | 4356 | 50 | 0.080542690584419 |
| 9 | 48400 | 10 | 0.178983756854264 |
| 8 | 245025 | 2 | 0.181221053814943 |
| 7 | 627264 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 853776 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 627264 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 245025 | 2 | 0.181221053814943 |
| 3 | 48400 | 10 | 0.178983756854264 |
| 2 | 4356 | 50 | 0.080542690584419 |
| 1 | 144 | 500 | 0.026625682837824 |
| 0 | 1 | 250000 | 0.092450287631335 |
| Total | 2704156 | 1.11964694344557 |
Man Babes #AxelFabulous
June 5th, 2013 at 8:51:01 AM
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Quote: mipletI'm getting a little more than 44%. Your $2 ticket has a return of $1.11964694344557
Hey, you beat me to it by three minutes.
| Match | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 250,000 | 1 | 0.00000037 | 0.09245029 |
| 11 | 500 | 144 | 0.00005325 | 0.02662568 |
| 10 | 50 | 4,356 | 0.00161085 | 0.08054269 |
| 9 | 10 | 48,400 | 0.01789838 | 0.17898376 |
| 8 | 2 | 245,025 | 0.09061053 | 0.18122105 |
| 7 | - | 627,264 | 0.23196295 | 0.00000000 |
| 6 | - | 853,776 | 0.31572735 | 0.00000000 |
| 5 | - | 627,264 | 0.23196295 | 0.00000000 |
| 4 | 2 | 245,025 | 0.09061053 | 0.18122105 |
| 3 | 10 | 48,400 | 0.01789838 | 0.17898376 |
| 2 | 50 | 4,356 | 0.00161085 | 0.08054269 |
| 1 | 500 | 144 | 0.00005325 | 0.02662568 |
| 0 | 250,000 | 1 | 0.00000037 | 0.09245029 |
| Total | 2,704,156 | 1.00000000 | 1.11964694 |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 5th, 2013 at 8:57:40 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearNo.
You have to consider ALL of the paylines that are available for your single bet.
Also, it's 2$ for a ticket.
Edit: ...I think I was stuck on page 2 when I replied. Whoops.
June 5th, 2013 at 9:06:43 AM
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Gah! that's what I get for attempting math pre-caffeine. Calced the top half of the paytable and forgot to multiply the 28% RTP by 2 to account for the mirrored payouts for the "nothing" winners. 1-(.28*2)=0.44
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
June 5th, 2013 at 1:50:13 PM
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Pretty funny they have a game with a 44% edge and they have to still suspend it because they can't handle the swings.
June 5th, 2013 at 6:18:45 PM
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Isn't 44% low for a state run lottery?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
June 5th, 2013 at 6:22:32 PM
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a lot of states' pick-3 games are at exactly 50% RTP
June 5th, 2013 at 6:25:07 PM
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Massachusetts lottery offers keno, of which they keep "only" 30% to 37.5%.
June 5th, 2013 at 9:38:01 PM
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Quote: JBMassachusetts lottery offers keno, of which they keep "only" 30% to 37.5%.
Massachusetts has one of the most friendly player lotteries in America though.
44% is an "appropriate" edge for most games like this, quotes for states' perspective.
And historically for this game, Texas has collected 41.4% so far.
http://lottoreport.com/ChronJune2013.htm
The suspension is definitely because someone pointed out the disaster long-shot scenario months later than they should have.
June 8th, 2013 at 11:12:32 AM
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I had to bust this as I also forgot its a $2 bet, and the $2 HAS to be accounted. roughly 56% payout, which under normal conditions is acceptable for a State-run game.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
June 9th, 2013 at 3:10:41 PM
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Quote: JBMassachusetts lottery offers keno, of which they keep "only" 30% to 37.5%.
Hey, that's not too far from live keno...! Massachusetts, here I come! lol
Just think if you had the option of playing all of your income through the lottery or paying taxes (Fed & State included). Not that we pay state income tax in NV, but many states with lotteries do.
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
July 16th, 2013 at 8:35:48 AM
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Hi,
Did anyone played at the NY lottery? any luck?
What do you think about the two of the most popular games that are currently played by countless contestants, Powerball and Mega Million??
Best regards :)
Did anyone played at the NY lottery? any luck?
What do you think about the two of the most popular games that are currently played by countless contestants, Powerball and Mega Million??
Best regards :)
July 16th, 2013 at 11:10:12 AM
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No, and the return sucks, in that order.
Powerball is almost never worth it from an EV standpoint, regardless of the jackpot, after taxes and accounting for the probability of a split jackpot, even if you should win.
Powerball is not for real gamblers or people who actually know anything about gambling, though. However, one of my friends gave me the best response ever when we stopped at a gas station and he bought a PB ticket with the base 10M jackpot.
Me: Why would you buy a ticket now? The Expected Return is at its worst point!
Friend: When should I buy it?
Me: I don't know exactly, it'd have to be over 500 million, probably.
Friend: What is it you can do with 500 million that you can't do with ten million?
Me: Hell if I know.
Friend: I don't know, either, but I wouldn't mind having ten million to think about what I would do with 500 million as opposed to a net worth of $20,000 thinking about what I could do with ten million.
Me: Fair enough.
Powerball is almost never worth it from an EV standpoint, regardless of the jackpot, after taxes and accounting for the probability of a split jackpot, even if you should win.
Powerball is not for real gamblers or people who actually know anything about gambling, though. However, one of my friends gave me the best response ever when we stopped at a gas station and he bought a PB ticket with the base 10M jackpot.
Me: Why would you buy a ticket now? The Expected Return is at its worst point!
Friend: When should I buy it?
Me: I don't know exactly, it'd have to be over 500 million, probably.
Friend: What is it you can do with 500 million that you can't do with ten million?
Me: Hell if I know.
Friend: I don't know, either, but I wouldn't mind having ten million to think about what I would do with 500 million as opposed to a net worth of $20,000 thinking about what I could do with ten million.
Me: Fair enough.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
July 16th, 2013 at 11:55:24 AM
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Quote: Mission146...net worth of $20,000...
Elitist =p
Edit:This made me check for real. Im up to negative mid four figures! Thank god for guns, or Id be into the fives.
Divorce: Not even once ;)
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
July 16th, 2013 at 12:34:58 PM
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So for months someone left the vault door wide open but collected his consultancy fee, then they issued a memo saying "close the vault door" and yet another consultancy fee was paid after months of having been lucky.Quote: tringlomaneThe suspension is definitely because someone pointed out the disaster long-shot scenario months later than they should have.
I thought Lady Luck had nothing to do with it?
