Powerball at $550 Million
Quote: Beethoven9thAgain, you're going to pick one example and let that influence your entire decision??
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Well, my other tangent would be, that private industry has it owns demons, it is not the panacea to govenrment. Supposedly customers cause a bad company to fail is far too simplistic to what actually happens. Company creates hazard, causes injurries, causes bankrupticies then customers reject it. Unfortunately the purist version that customers rule is fantasy.
But govenrment also needs to be watched. Always watched.
Quote: rxwineWell, my other tangent would be, that private industry has it owns demons, it is not the panacea to govenrment. Supposedly customers cause a bad company to fail is far too simplistic to what actually happens. Company creates hazard, causes injurries, causes bankrupticies then customers reject it. Unfortunately the purist version that customers rule is fantasy.
I'm certainly not going to defend big business, but it's better than big government (however slightly). I'm more of a pro-small business kinda guy though.
+1Quote: rxwineBut govenrment also needs to be watched. Always watched.
I think those who received checks from the Illinois Lottery would agree: the checks bounced.Quote: Beethoven9thAnd for the record, earlier in this thread the Wizard said: "It is time to end the government monopoly on lotteries."
Quote: FleaStiffI think those who received checks from the Illinois Lottery would agree: the checks bounced.
Possibly. But it was a clerical error. Private business can easily do the same.
Personally, if Nevada casinos want to revamp a lottery setup, more power to 'em. If Nevada wants to legalize a state lottery, more power to 'em too. I'm just a Vegas tourist, so it makes little difference to me.
Much of this country's roads and bridges were originally privately funded toll roads. Many such projects were funded by lotteries. Some lotteries became notorious for always selling tickets but never holding a drawing and soon the situation deteriorated.
There was a long ago thread on a long-lived privately run illegal lotto ... sold cheaper tickets and paid better than the real one. Must have worked well since it ran for a decade or so.
LOL...that's hilarious.Quote: FleaStiffThere was a long ago thread on a long-lived privately run illegal lotto ... sold cheaper tickets and paid better than the real one.
Quote:It was a move that could have potentially cost the Crandells the $590.5 million Powerball ticket.
The implication being that the next ticket bought, no matter who bought, nor when the ticket was bought, would have been the winning ticket.
My assumption was that QuickPick ticket numbers were chosen at the time the button was pressed. In other words, whatever RNG is used is activated at the time a button is pressed somewhere. The article would like to imply that this isn't true. My first question is whether or not I'm right. Does the RNG kick in at the time the button is pressed? Or are the numbers on the QuickPick tickets pre-determined?
Quote: WizardAt a jackpot of $550 million I find the value of a $2 ticket to be $2.11, before considering taxes and annuity. If we assume that 50% of the jackpot is lost to taxes, and another 50% to the annuity, then the value of that $2 ticket I show to be $0.80.
Wizard, could you please clarify your terminology surrounding the annuity?
My understanding is that if you choose the "annuity" option, you receive the full value of the jackpot, minus applicable taxes, over a period of time. It is when you choose the cash option that you sacrifice some of the "face value" of the jackpot amount.
Granted if you choose the annuity, you will lose some real value to inflation and missed investment earnings, but that is a more complicated calculation than just chopping off 50%.
It seems like when you say "and another 50% to the annuity" you are actually talking about taking the cash option, instead of the annuity.
Unless I'm totally confused, which is completely possible.
You could have had private lotteries, but they're most likely the reason amendments were passed to stop them from failing like Enron and the wasted money and energy was seen as a burden to society. It's probably not too hard to find historical abuses and cheats in this area and sweepstakes if you look for them. Gambling comes and goes throughout history and always has for one reason or another. I'm not too sure the states are running fair games as they are already and wouldn't trust any corporation with no dollar symbols marked for ethics.
Quote: djatcI still can't get over the rationality of people buying lottery tickets. At my job someone I would never expect to get into an -EV situation was saying they bought some powerball tickets. Lots of my supervisors do too and it's illogical the disconnect between knowing the odds and disregarding them altogether.
If someone points a gun at you cliff side, you jump if you have to hoping somehow you might have a chance to survive the fall. Either way is a negative expectation, but one is less than the other. How many people have a better chance doing anything making 500 million in this lifetime without the lottery?
Quote: konceptumRead this article today.
The implication being that the next ticket bought, no matter who bought, nor when the ticket was bought, would have been the winning ticket.
My assumption was that QuickPick ticket numbers were chosen at the time the button was pressed. In other words, whatever RNG is used is activated at the time a button is pressed somewhere. The article would like to imply that this isn't true. My first question is whether or not I'm right. Does the RNG kick in at the time the button is pressed? Or are the numbers on the QuickPick tickets pre-determined?
Do you think journalists would ever get this right?
Quote: sodawaterDepending on the height of the cliff, I think most times you'd be a lot better off sprinting away as fast as you can. Unless your assailant has trained a lot with side arms, its pretty unlikely he would be able to hit a moving target, especially if you had any kind of head start
You're on a plank 20 feet out, over a cliff, and he has multiple weapons. The example is of the cliff being the best option anyways, so I guess he killed you. You should have bought a lotto ticket. Actually with regards to the gun, I think you're best off trying to distract them, grab the barrel and try to twist it away from them. I had to look it up just to be prepared to visit AC, so I think it's generally correct.
Quote: onenickelmiracleYou're on a plank 20 feet out, over a cliff, and he has multiple weapons. The example is of the cliff being the best option anyways, so I guess he killed you. You should have bought a lotto ticket. Actually with regards to the gun, I think you're best off trying to distract them, grab the barrel and try to twist it away from them. I had to look it up just to be prepared to visit AC, so I think it's generally correct.
Forget all this Chuck Norris crap!
If I went to AC, then I would gamble exclusively at the Revel; there wouldn't be anyone else there so I wouldn't have to worry about anything like this.
In today's world of spray and pray you might be right but usually no one will ever out run the bullet so its better to run towards the person with the weapon. Takes courage of course. Too many people run away and find that after a step and a half they get plugged.Quote: sodawaterDepending on the height of the cliff, I think most times you'd be a lot better off sprinting away as fast as you can.
Quote: AcesAndEightsMy understanding is that if you choose the "annuity" option, you receive the full value of the jackpot, minus applicable taxes, over a period of time. It is when you choose the cash option that you sacrifice some of the "face value" of the jackpot amount.
Granted if you choose the annuity, you will lose some real value to inflation and missed investment earnings, but that is a more complicated calculation than just chopping off 50%.
It seems like when you say "and another 50% to the annuity" you are actually talking about taking the cash option, instead of the annuity.
Unless I'm totally confused, which is completely possible.
Yes, I meant that 50% is loss because it is paid out as an annuity. You can either accept the time value of money loss, or the lump sum offer which is about 50% of the total annuity payments, before tax. So, that 50% loss is suffered either way. I've never heard of a big winner accepting the annuity, so the lump sum hit is quite obvious.
Quote: tringlomaneDo you think journalists would ever get this right?
Nope. Journalists call me often with mathematical questions about gambling. I can tell you that they may be good at writing, but journalists in general are awful at math.
-- Source: http://gma.yahoo.com/woman-let-powerball-winner-ahead-her-no-regrets-130005843--abc-news-topstories.html.Quote: Good Morning AmericaThat woman, Mindy Crandell, 34, is not upset that her charitable gesture likely cost her an enormous fortune and says "things are meant to be for a reason."
It did not likely cost her anything! Her odds of winning were the same regardless of how many people she let cut in line. I'm quite sure that when somebody buys a quick pick random numbers drawn by the game the moment a button is pressed determine the numbers on a ticket, much like a slot machine. It isn't like the winning numbers were next in the RNG queue. If that were the case, the system would be extremely vulnerable to fraud.
The question may come up if the winner owes anything to the person who let her cut in line. I say not a dime. However, with $371 million she won, maybe a new car would be a nice gesture, but she may as well thank everybody else who had any impact on her day before she bought the ticket.
Quote: WizardNope. Journalists call me often with mathematical questions about gambling. I can tell you that they may be good at writing, but journalists in general are awful at math.
As a copy editor, I can tell you that most journalists are really shitty writers, too.
Quote: sodawaterAs a copy editor, I can tell you that most journalists are really shitty writers, too.
LOL
As for the article at hand, it's a better story if she "gave up the jackpot" by her actions. That's enough for them to avoid trying to mangle up an explanation about RNGs and quick pick tickets.
Quote: FleaStiffIn today's world of spray and pray you might be right but usually no one will ever out run the bullet so its better to run towards the person with the weapon. Takes courage of course. Too many people run away and find that after a step and a half they get plugged.
Sorry Rambo, you didn't survive the scenario, but it was a valiant and short lived effort.
Quote: WizardI'm quite sure that when somebody buys a quick pick random numbers drawn by the game the moment a button is pressed determine the numbers on a ticket, much like a slot machine. It isn't like the winning numbers were next in the RNG queue. If that were the case, the system would be extremely vulnerable to fraud.
It really comes down to how the software/firmware for the machine is written. If it runs randomize(); before every set of picks number, then it depends on the timing, as the software RNG is reseeded with system clock. If it just uses random(), then the seed doesn't change and the numbers are indeed next in the queue (though they aren't winning numbers yet), as the entire infinite sequence of random numbers is predetermined on machine boot.
Since no one knows the winning numbers in advance, where's the potential for fraud? It's not a slot machine, it just picks numbers where you could write in any you like yourself. There's no reason to equip the machine with a true RNG chip (as required for e.g. classified data encryption) and not even a reason for the coder to care either way.
Quote: P90Since no one knows the winning numbers in advance, where's the potential for fraud?
Good points. You got me there.
Quote: P90It really comes down to how the software/firmware for the machine is written. If it runs randomize(); before every set of picks number, then it depends on the timing, as the software RNG is reseeded with system clock. If it just uses random(), then the seed doesn't change and the numbers are indeed next in the queue (though they aren't winning numbers yet), as the entire infinite sequence of random numbers is predetermined on machine boot.
Since no one knows the winning numbers in advance, where's the potential for fraud? It's not a slot machine, it just picks numbers where you could write in any you like yourself. There's no reason to equip the machine with a true RNG chip (as required for e.g. classified data encryption) and not even a reason for the coder to care either way.
That's an RNG implementation detail, very different from the idea of drawing truly predetermined sets of numbers from a pool of such sets of numbers. I can't speak to the firmware inside the pick-six lottery kiosks (though I bet you could ask GTECH or Scientific Games) -- but virtually all casino gaming machines constantly cycle the RNG so it doesn't matter when or how often it's seeded. The timing of each play is sufficient entropy to destroy predictability even if you know the seed and the exact algorithm. If the lottery kiosks operate the same way, quick picks are just as unpredictable.
Quote: WizardThe question may come up if the winner owes anything to the person who let her cut in line. I say not a dime. However, with $371 million she won, maybe a new car would be a nice gesture, but she may as well thank everybody else who had any impact on her day before she bought the ticket.
The woman who let the winner cut in line had a daughter. I think funding a college education for the daughter, specifically focused on math, odds, probability, and the way RNGs work, would be a nice gesture.
Then there was a quick exchange with Al about how the numbers are drawn. Al seems to think that every outlet in the country is tied into one central computer and that Quick Picks numbers may be predestined and in order, but the queue is everybody in the whole country buying tickets. However, I wouldn't necessarily trust Al's understanding to be entirely correct. I still would bet that each machine that vends tickets draws random numbers in the same way a slot machine does, constantly, and it is the moment the button is pressed that determines the numbers.
Quote: WizardQuote: AcesAndEightsMy understanding is that if you choose the "annuity" option, you receive the full value of the jackpot, minus applicable taxes, over a period of time. It is when you choose the cash option that you sacrifice some of the "face value" of the jackpot amount.
Granted if you choose the annuity, you will lose some real value to inflation and missed investment earnings, but that is a more complicated calculation than just chopping off 50%.
It seems like when you say "and another 50% to the annuity" you are actually talking about taking the cash option, instead of the annuity.
Unless I'm totally confused, which is completely possible.
Yes, I meant that 50% is loss because it is paid out as an annuity. You can either accept the time value of money loss, or the lump sum offer which is about 50% of the total annuity payments, before tax. So, that 50% loss is suffered either way. I've never heard of a big winner accepting the annuity, so the lump sum hit is quite obvious.
Really, you estimate the loss due to the time-value of money at 50%? I find that hard to believe. I would appreciate some more detailed calculations here, or an explanation of your assumptions. I can't seem to find any details about the "default" annuity setup for Powerball or MegaMillions (i.e. total number of years, etc.). This is a friendly request and of course subject to your own personal time limitations.
Yes, I am trying to justify purchasing the odd lottery ticket when the jackpots get huge :). Your pioneering work in the area of estimating total number of winners (and hence expected value taking into account jackpot splits) is already deterring me. But I think you're being overly critical of the lottery here, specifically in regards to real-value of money received if you choose the annuity option.
Quote: WizardThey discussed this on the Today show today. The main question was the proper etiquette of paying the woman who let the winner cut in line. Their etiquette expert said that the winner is not obligated at all.
Then there was a quick exchange with Al about how the numbers are drawn. Al seems to think that every outlet in the country is tied into one central computer and that Quick Picks numbers may be predestined and in order, but the queue is everybody in the whole country buying tickets. However, I wouldn't necessarily trust Al's understanding to be entirely correct. I still would bet that each machine that vends tickets draws random numbers in the same way a slot machine does, constantly, and it is the moment the button is pressed that determines the numbers.
Al is wrong as per the Missouri Lottery's FAQ: http://www.molottery.com/learnaboutus/FAQs.shtm
Quote: Missouri Lottery FAQIf I buy a Quick Pick ticket, can anyone else buy those numbers using Quick Pick?
Yes. Quick Pick tickets are generated randomly by the terminal at the retailer, and there is no central computer that is controlling ticket generation. The chances of buying a Draw Game ticket with the same numbers as someone else are the same as the chances of winning the jackpot.
I would also assume the RNG continuously cycles. Although I haven't read anything saying that it does so.
