Analysis of a low-tie live baccarat shoe (3 ties total) - Shoe flow and variance tracking

Hello everyone,

I wanted to share a full live-dealer baccarat session I recorded recently. I know the math dictates that a standard 8-deck shoe averages about 7 to 8 ties, but this particular shoe ran incredibly dry, hitting only 3 ties across the entire run.

I’m sharing the raw footage because I think it’s a great visual example of extreme under-distribution and how variance manifests in real-time play. I focused heavily on managing bankroll and tracking the structural flow of the streaks during this dry spell.

You can watch the full marathon session here:

For those who track shoes dynamically: how do you adjust your entry points or strategy when a shoe completely starves out outcomes like ties for dozens of hands? Do you lean into the Player/Banker streaks, or do you step away entirely until a new shoe is brought out?

Looking forward to hearing the community's thoughts on handling this kind of asymmetry.

Welcome to the Forum :)

This is a math-related community, and the consensus here is that you cannot analyze patterns in Baccarat to gain an advantage on the Player or Banker bets. Counting side bets is a different situation but that has nothing to do with pattern analysis.

So 3 Ties in a shoe, that's pretty rare but not impossible, as you said it shows how big variance can be. There are so many ways to get ties in baccarat that the relative lack of ties doesn't tell you much about the composition of the shoe.

I calculate 4.68% for probability of getting 3 or fewer ties in 80 hands. Not really a big deal.

ok good luck doing that live...