Election Betting
Quote: AZDuffman
I can tell you can't. Because you want 15-1 for a field of many that is paying more than that 3 of the 7 individuals and 2 others are very close to that. Thus to say you want 15-1 if ANY of them comes in when the odds on ONE are 14-1 is insane.
Wanting is not believing something is fair. I want to be paid 3-1 on a coin flip.
You seemed to imply that it would be easy to set a fair number for this. You are clearly a genius, what is the fair number? As I suspect you won't answer because you have no idea.
Quote: billryanSo, for the next four years, we can take shots at politicians and then just say that's why the odds are long.
What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
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On betfair you can lay the original bet if the odds move and get your stake returned. Only your winnings are tied up for the duration. Other exchanges/books have similar mechanisms.
If this is not the case then you'd need a bet that is worth holding for 4 years. That has to be good but they do exist: I'm glad I held Tesla for 4 years.
Quote: billryanSo, for the next four years, we can take shots at politicians and then just say that's why the odds are long.
What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
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How about the guy that bet, right after Kennedy's "We choose to go to the moon" speech, that somebody would walk on the moon before the end of 1969?
Quote: Archvaldor1Quote: billryanSo, for the next four years, we can take shots at politicians and then just say that's why the odds are long.
What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
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On betfair you can lay the original bet if the odds move and get your stake returned. Only your winnings are tied up for the duration. Other exchanges/books have similar mechanisms.
If this is not the case then you'd need a bet that is worth holding for 4 years. That has to be good but they do exist: I'm glad I held Tesla for 4 years.
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Not even close to the same thing. You can cash out on Tesla at any time., and set a price to sell at. Does a bet on Vance come with a stop-loss?
Quote: billryanQuote: Archvaldor1Quote: billryanSo, for the next four years, we can take shots at politicians and then just say that's why the odds are long.
What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
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On betfair you can lay the original bet if the odds move and get your stake returned. Only your winnings are tied up for the duration. Other exchanges/books have similar mechanisms.
If this is not the case then you'd need a bet that is worth holding for 4 years. That has to be good but they do exist: I'm glad I held Tesla for 4 years.
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Not even close to the same thing. You can cash out on Tesla at any time., and set a price to sell at. Does a bet on Vance come with a stop-loss?
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With most larger euro/uk-facing bookmakers there is a cash-out option very similar to what you can do with a stockbroker. I'm not sure what larger us facing books do as they don't deal to us in England. I would imagine they would replicate cash-out at least in the near future if they don't already as it is stupidly profitable.
With Tesla my plan was to hold for 2020-2030. There isn't really an amount it could go up to that would make me want to sell it, at least for pure investment purposes. I'd rather I didn't even have the cash-out option. Selling my shares fast isn't exactly without cost-you pay a lot of tax on that.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: billryan
What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
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If the ROI is there why not? Some on here wanted to bet that Trump would run in 2028. That is a sure thing so if the person has proper reputation for paying one should take it. Unless you are tying the money up in escrow that will not pay off. I could see both sides opening a crypto account and having to post more money if the value falls below the payout like they did in "The Big Short" with swaps.
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Tangentially related:
Is there an escrow service that takes this sort of action?
Quote: DieterQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: billryan
What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
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If the ROI is there why not? Some on here wanted to bet that Trump would run in 2028. That is a sure thing so if the person has proper reputation for paying one should take it. Unless you are tying the money up in escrow that will not pay off. I could see both sides opening a crypto account and having to post more money if the value falls below the payout like they did in "The Big Short" with swaps.
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Tangentially related:
Is there an escrow service that takes this sort of action?
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No idea. It would be an interesting thing but if you want to run the place that has to report to both the gaming commission as well as the SEC be my guest. lol
Quote: EvenBobQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: DeucekiesPerhaps there are historians in this thread who know the answer to this. What are some examples of candidates dropping out or being removed and being replaced late in the election cycle, and how did the party do?
The latest example I can think of is LBJ dropping out in March of 1968, and of course Nixon won that year.
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Not sure when Truman dropped out. Also late comes far earlier now though we are now late. I think before primaries it mattered far less.
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Both Truman and Johnson dropped out and both their parties lost to the Republicans. Teddy Roosevelt did not run for a second term and the other party won.
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That is incorrect. Teddy's hand-picked successor, William Howard Taft, ran and won. Taft lost Roosevelt's support, and Teddy ran against him in the 1912 Primaries. After Roosevelt appeared to have the delegates to win the nomination, the GOP changed the rules and backed Taft. Roosevelt ran on the third party and while he got more votes than Taft, Woodrow Wilson won the election.
Quote: Archvaldor1
I would lay that field. The exception would be Michelle Obama-she has very impressive interpersonal psychology like her husband-this is a huge electoral asset. She would be an effective candidate if she actually stood. But she doesn't seem to want to and there is no particular reason to suppose she would change her mind. You can't really predict or rule out something like that-it is pure guesswork.
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She’s the new Collin Powell. People kept bringing him up, but he never took the bait.
Quote: rxwineQuote: Archvaldor1
I would lay that field. The exception would be Michelle Obama-she has very impressive interpersonal psychology like her husband-this is a huge electoral asset. She would be an effective candidate if she actually stood. But she doesn't seem to want to and there is no particular reason to suppose she would change her mind. You can't really predict or rule out something like that-it is pure guesswork.
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She’s the new Collin Powell. People kept bringing him up, but he never took the bait.
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That she gets talked about shows how thin the bench is. It's like a bar chat I had with some dude I forget when. Guy said the Democrats needed to make Obama the VP pick. I tried to explain he is not allowed. Guy kept saying he could. But I kept thinking how can it be that was considered an actual idea.
As to Powell my thing was that people suggesting him knew nothing of where he stood on anything. OK, as COTJCOS you are not supposed to be political, so he did that part of the job well. Buuut that is sort of same as saying you would marry an actress based on the role she played not knowing about her.
Quote: billryanThe Constitution says that Congress must approve the Presidential election on January 6th. To do that, there needs to be a Speaker of the House. The House will vote on a new Speaker on January 3rd. I don't think there is a chance a Republican elected Speaker on the 3rd. There doesn't appear to be any leeway about the Jan 6th date, so it may get very interesting rather quickly.
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The Constitution says no such thing. January 6 is specified in Title 3, Section 15(a) of the United States Code, where it also says that the Joint Session of Congress shall be presided over by "the President of the Senate," which would still be Vice-President Harris. The 12th Amendment says, "The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted"; again, no requirement that there even be a Speaker of the House.
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: billryanThe Constitution says that Congress must approve the Presidential election on January 6th. To do that, there needs to be a Speaker of the House. The House will vote on a new Speaker on January 3rd. I don't think there is a chance a Republican elected Speaker on the 3rd. There doesn't appear to be any leeway about the Jan 6th date, so it may get very interesting rather quickly.
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The Constitution says no such thing. January 6 is specified in Title 3, Section 15(a) of the United States Code, where it also says that the Joint Session of Congress shall be presided over by "the President of the Senate," which would still be Vice-President Harris. The 12th Amendment says, "The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted"; again, no requirement that there even be a Speaker of the House.
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The mainstream media seems to think it can’t happen without a speaker of the house.
I’m fascinated to see this clown show play out if there is no speaker by Jan 20! Does Biden continue as President? Do we have no President for a while? Can Harris be President on January 20 if Biden steps down? Can I be President for a day?
My understanding is that the first order of the House is to elect a speaker who then swears in the new Congress. The old Congress is over. After the January 6th Riot, congress returned and certified on the 6rh, as that is the only date they could certify.
An interesting proposal has Jeffries named Speaker so that Congress can do its job on the 6th and then vote him out after certification. It is fun to speculate about these things, but I don't think it is realistic to think Trump doesn't take office on the 20th.
I don't think Biden will step down early, allowing a woman to take the Office for the first time.
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: billryanThe Constitution says that Congress must approve the Presidential election on January 6th. To do that, there needs to be a Speaker of the House. The House will vote on a new Speaker on January 3rd. I don't think there is a chance a Republican elected Speaker on the 3rd. There doesn't appear to be any leeway about the Jan 6th date, so it may get very interesting rather quickly.
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The Constitution says no such thing. January 6 is specified in Title 3, Section 15(a) of the United States Code, where it also says that the Joint Session of Congress shall be presided over by "the President of the Senate," which would still be Vice-President Harris. The 12th Amendment says, "The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted"; again, no requirement that there even be a Speaker of the House.
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No business can be done in the House until a Speaker is voted on. Then he gets sworn in by the longest-serving member of his Party. The Speaker then swears in the new House, which is open for business. I don't think you can have a joint session of Congress when the House has not been sworn in.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOO
Being nominated by who? Not the Democrats or Republicans.
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He's a Kennedy, a name that is synonymous with the Democrat Party. Of course he'll be nominated by the Democrats, who else have they got for 28. Kennedy and everybody else knows that usually after 8 years of one president we switch parties. I believe he thinks he can sabotage any chance Joe Biden has so in 2028 people will want to replace a republican with a Democrat. He knows if Biden wins he will never have a chance in 2028. This is all just a chess game to these people.
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Someone actually wrote that Kennedy will be the DEMOCRAT nominee in 2028! I’m willing to bet any amount, (well, up to $5 million) that he won’t be.
I’ve been digging through this thread to see who I owe what to. And what the exact terms were. I sold some stock today to come up with the cash.
I KNOW I bet the Wiz on the election. I am PRETTY SURE it was $75 against $300, with me just having a ‘no Trump as next President’. But it might have been on simple electoral votes. It might have been on Trump needing to be President on January 20, 2025.
I also KNOW I bet him on Trump not winning Georgia. $25.
I can’t find any of these! I’m not facile on the search function. Anyone who can find these for me I owe a debt of gratitude.
I also know I owe UnJon $25 from some other bet. And of course Mission owes me $25. And DRich owes me untold Starbucks. Axel owes me drinks(not really, but he always buys anyway). And I’m pretty sure SpeedyCraps owes me a dinner or something like that. I feel I still owe BBB for her kindness to my kids. Anyone else I owe?
Quote: SOOPOOI’m asking a favor.
I KNOW I bet the Wiz on the election. I am PRETTY SURE it was $75 against $300, with me just having a ‘no Trump as next President’. But it might have been on simple electoral votes. It might have been on Trump needing to be President on January 20, 2025.
I also KNOW I bet him on Trump not winning Georgia. $25.
I can’t find any of these! I’m not facile on the search function. Anyone who can find these for me I owe a debt of gratitude.
I also know I owe UnJon $25 from some other bet. And of course Mission owes me $25. And DRich owes me untold Starbucks. Axel owes me drinks(not really, but he always buys anyway). And I’m pretty sure SpeedyCraps owes me a dinner or something like that. I feel I still owe BBB for her kindness to my kids. Anyone else I owe?
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Do you really owe me $25 for a bet? I have no memory of that!
Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOI’m asking a favor.
I KNOW I bet the Wiz on the election. I am PRETTY SURE it was $75 against $300, with me just having a ‘no Trump as next President’. But it might have been on simple electoral votes. It might have been on Trump needing to be President on January 20, 2025.
I also KNOW I bet him on Trump not winning Georgia. $25.
I can’t find any of these! I’m not facile on the search function. Anyone who can find these for me I owe a debt of gratitude.
I also know I owe UnJon $25 from some other bet. And of course Mission owes me $25. And DRich owes me untold Starbucks. Axel owes me drinks(not really, but he always buys anyway). And I’m pretty sure SpeedyCraps owes me a dinner or something like that. I feel I still owe BBB for her kindness to my kids. Anyone else I owe?
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Do you really owe me $25 for a bet? I have no memory of that!
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I do. I also don’t remember on what. I also remember almost just asking Mission to transfer the $25 he owes me to you! But I think that was about when he went AWOL.
I’m due some $$ for my 3 perfect weeks in the football game thing. I’m hoping it reaches $25 so I can just have it go to you!
I think by the tenor of your post you are willing to wait!
Until recently I would have considered a long term bet on Gavin Newsom to be the blue team nominee in 2028: Newsom vs Vance, or Newsom vs DeSantis perhaps. With the LA fires, however, a lot of wind seems to have been knocked out of his sails. Granted, plenty of water will pass under the bridge before the electorate begins to consider the next presidential election, but the governor's opponents (I'm talking primary, never mind general) would be fools not to make it an issue.
While I still consider Newsom to be the front runner, with "Nobody" and "Don't Know" polling so well (and with no obvious heir apparent on the left), I have to wonder if 2028 will be like campaign '76. You may recall in that one the blue team had a gazillion candidates--many with big name recognition--throw their hats into the ring, and the winner was a peanut farming governor nobody ever heard of.
USA Today poll results
Quote: GialmereI have to wonder if 2028 will be like campaign '76. You may recall in that one the blue team had a gazillion candidates--many with big name recognition--throw their hats into the ring, and the winner was a peanut farming governor nobody ever heard of.
USA Today poll results
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Carter ran against people like George Wallace who was an extreme bigot. And Carter claimed he was the ultimate outsider, he wasn't part of the Washington machine. And people were sick and tired of that because of Richard Nixon so they elected a fresh face. Little did they know, Carter was all hat and no cattle.
Quote: billryanI wouldn't bet against Mark Cuban if he decides to run. I'm not convinced he will, but if he does, he'll be formidable.
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Cuban has lost quite a bit of popularity due to some of his actions. He was this fun private equity guy 15 years ago, now comes off as more of an old grouch. Wanted to stop playing the national anthem before games until the NBA told him doing so was required. His rants against Trump aren't going to be much help, either. I'd file him as like Bernie, having a cult following but not catching beyond that.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOI’m asking a favor.
I KNOW I bet the Wiz on the election. I am PRETTY SURE it was $75 against $300, with me just having a ‘no Trump as next President’. But it might have been on simple electoral votes. It might have been on Trump needing to be President on January 20, 2025.
I also KNOW I bet him on Trump not winning Georgia. $25.
I can’t find any of these! I’m not facile on the search function. Anyone who can find these for me I owe a debt of gratitude.
I also know I owe UnJon $25 from some other bet. And of course Mission owes me $25. And DRich owes me untold Starbucks. Axel owes me drinks(not really, but he always buys anyway). And I’m pretty sure SpeedyCraps owes me a dinner or something like that. I feel I still owe BBB for her kindness to my kids. Anyone else I owe?
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Do you really owe me $25 for a bet? I have no memory of that!
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I do. I also don’t remember on what. I also remember almost just asking Mission to transfer the $25 he owes me to you! But I think that was about when he went AWOL.
I’m due some $$ for my 3 perfect weeks in the football game thing. I’m hoping it reaches $25 so I can just have it go to you!
I think by the tenor of your post you are willing to wait!
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Ha. Yeah not sweating it.
And happy to find some future bet to go double or nothing on and we can both root for nothing.
Quote: billryanI wouldn't bet against Mark Cuban if he decides to run. I'm not convinced he will, but if he does, he'll be formidable.
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I agree. My understanding is that he would like to run but his wife is 100% against it. I have heard she is a very private person and doesn't want the spotlight politics brings.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanI wouldn't bet against Mark Cuban if he decides to run. I'm not convinced he will, but if he does, he'll be formidable.
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I agree. My understanding is that he would like to run but his wife is 100% against it. I have heard she is a very private person and doesn't want the spotlight politics brings.
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It was about her kids, but the youngest will be 18 in 2028. We'll see.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: billryanI wouldn't bet against Mark Cuban if he decides to run. I'm not convinced he will, but if he does, he'll be formidable.
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I agree. My understanding is that he would like to run but his wife is 100% against it. I have heard she is a very private person and doesn't want the spotlight politics brings.
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It was about her kids, but the youngest will be 18 in 2028. We'll see.
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You act like when a kid turns 18 they disappear from your lives. Not hardly. If only that were true but unfortunately it's not.
Quote: SOOPOOI’m asking a favor.
I KNOW I bet the Wiz on the election. I am PRETTY SURE it was $75 against $300, with me just having a ‘no Trump as next President’. But it might have been on simple electoral votes. It might have been on Trump needing to be President on January 20, 2025.
I also KNOW I bet him on Trump not winning Georgia. $25.
I can’t find any of these! I’m not facile on the search function. Anyone who can find these for me I owe a debt of gratitude.
I also know I owe UnJon $25 from some other bet. And of course Mission owes me $25. And DRich owes me untold Starbucks. Axel owes me drinks(not really, but he always buys anyway). And I’m pretty sure SpeedyCraps owes me a dinner or something like that. I feel I still owe BBB for her kindness to my kids. Anyone else I owe?
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I vaguely remember the bet with Wizard, but the link I had to the post stopped working during either the repagination or possibly a thread split.
My google-fu has been unhelpful.
I should point out that these rumors seem to be based solely on her attendance (her people claim scheduling conflicts for both events), but it does give off a certain Princess Kate kind of vibe. So it could be nothing, or something either physical or mental. (She has stated in the past, for example, that she suffers from mild depression).
At any rate, if you're looking at some long term wagering for '28, you might consider adjusting her chances of even entering the race from "unlikely" to "practically nil".
Quote: GialmereThere are rumors going around that Michelle Obama is ill. She will not be attending Trump's inauguration nor did she attend Carter's funeral, unlike all other POTUS and FLOTUS.
I should point out that these rumors seem to be based solely on her attendance (her people claim scheduling conflicts for both events), but it does give off a certain Princess Kate kind of vibe. So it could be nothing, or something either physical or mental. (She has stated in the past, for example, that she suffers from mild depression).
At any rate, if you're looking at some long term wagering for '28, you might consider adjusting her chances of even entering the race from "unlikely" to "practically nill".
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My experience for women not being at expected events while their husbands are there has been…. She had some form of cosmetic surgery. Most likely facelift of some sort. Just a guess of course. If it was a negative health thing I’d be surprised if Barack left her side to chat with Trump at a funeral.
On the other hand, if she attended the funeral but not the inauguration, it could be interpreted as a political statement. But, I don't think our leaders have descended into that level of crassness yet.
Instead she misses both events. So what is on her schedule?
Quote: GialmereI'd buy that if she was attending the inauguration. Funerals, even for a centenarian like Carter, could happen next month or two years from now. You can't really schedule for them. Inauguration day, however, catches nobody in US politics by surprise.
On the other hand, if she attended the funeral but not the inauguration, it could be interpreted as a political statement. But, I don't think our leaders have descended into that level of crassness yet.
Instead she misses both events. So what is on her schedule?
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I'd say this about Michelle Obama:
1. She hates Trump
2. She has a strong dislike for the rough and tumble of politics.
If she doesn't want to attend the Inauguration, then fine. That's her right. Frankly, I'm surprised that Hillary Clinton is choosing to attend.
Quote: GialmereThere are rumors going around that Michelle Obama is ill. She will not be attending Trump's inauguration nor did she attend Carter's funeral, unlike all other POTUS and FLOTUS.
It seems rather more likely to me she just doesn't care for Trump much.
