Election Betting

Quote: AZDuffman

I can tell you can't. Because you want 15-1 for a field of many that is paying more than that 3 of the 7 individuals and 2 others are very close to that. Thus to say you want 15-1 if ANY of them comes in when the odds on ONE are 14-1 is insane.

Wanting is not believing something is fair. I want to be paid 3-1 on a coin flip.

You seemed to imply that it would be easy to set a fair number for this. You are clearly a genius, what is the fair number? As I suspect you won't answer because you have no idea.

Quote: billryan

So, for the next four years, we can take shots at politicians and then just say that's why the odds are long.

What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
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On betfair you can lay the original bet if the odds move and get your stake returned. Only your winnings are tied up for the duration. Other exchanges/books have similar mechanisms.

If this is not the case then you'd need a bet that is worth holding for 4 years. That has to be good but they do exist: I'm glad I held Tesla for 4 years.

Quote: billryan

So, for the next four years, we can take shots at politicians and then just say that's why the odds are long.

What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
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How about the guy that bet, right after Kennedy's "We choose to go to the moon" speech, that somebody would walk on the moon before the end of 1969?

Quote: Archvaldor1

Quote: billryan

So, for the next four years, we can take shots at politicians and then just say that's why the odds are long.

What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
link to original post

On betfair you can lay the original bet if the odds move and get your stake returned. Only your winnings are tied up for the duration. Other exchanges/books have similar mechanisms.

If this is not the case then you'd need a bet that is worth holding for 4 years. That has to be good but they do exist: I'm glad I held Tesla for 4 years.
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Not even close to the same thing. You can cash out on Tesla at any time., and set a price to sell at. Does a bet on Vance come with a stop-loss?

Quote: billryan

Quote: Archvaldor1

Quote: billryan

So, for the next four years, we can take shots at politicians and then just say that's why the odds are long.

What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
link to original post

On betfair you can lay the original bet if the odds move and get your stake returned. Only your winnings are tied up for the duration. Other exchanges/books have similar mechanisms.

If this is not the case then you'd need a bet that is worth holding for 4 years. That has to be good but they do exist: I'm glad I held Tesla for 4 years.
link to original post

Not even close to the same thing. You can cash out on Tesla at any time., and set a price to sell at. Does a bet on Vance come with a stop-loss?
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With most larger euro/uk-facing bookmakers there is a cash-out option very similar to what you can do with a stockbroker. I'm not sure what larger us facing books do as they don't deal to us in England. I would imagine they would replicate cash-out at least in the near future if they don't already as it is stupidly profitable.

With Tesla my plan was to hold for 2020-2030. There isn't really an amount it could go up to that would make me want to sell it, at least for pure investment purposes. I'd rather I didn't even have the cash-out option. Selling my shares fast isn't exactly without cost-you pay a lot of tax on that.

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: billryan

What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
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If the ROI is there why not? Some on here wanted to bet that Trump would run in 2028. That is a sure thing so if the person has proper reputation for paying one should take it. Unless you are tying the money up in escrow that will not pay off. I could see both sides opening a crypto account and having to post more money if the value falls below the payout like they did in "The Big Short" with swaps.
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Tangentially related:
Is there an escrow service that takes this sort of action?

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: billryan

What sort of fool lays out money on a bet they can't collect for over four years?
link to original post

If the ROI is there why not? Some on here wanted to bet that Trump would run in 2028. That is a sure thing so if the person has proper reputation for paying one should take it. Unless you are tying the money up in escrow that will not pay off. I could see both sides opening a crypto account and having to post more money if the value falls below the payout like they did in "The Big Short" with swaps.
link to original post

Tangentially related:
Is there an escrow service that takes this sort of action?
link to original post

No idea. It would be an interesting thing but if you want to run the place that has to report to both the gaming commission as well as the SEC be my guest. lol