Election Betting
Quote: EvenBobQuote: EvenBobQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: darkozQuote: gordonm888This is an election odds thread. Please stay on topic. The current conversation is approaching the level of actionable hijacking. I particularly don't want another MDawg/terapined fight to emerge here.
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Perfect! Case closed!
As far as betting odds, I expect Kamala will rise with the strategic choice of Walz and the Midwest states he brings to the tables.
Nonetheless this election won't be a simple waltz (sorry couldn't resist the joke)
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All that does is balance Trump's midwest pick. I do not see it affecting odds much there.
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I never heard of the guy Trump picked and I sure as heck never heard of this new Dem pick. If I've never heard of them I guarantee 95% of the country has never heard of them. I never heard of the guy Trump picked last time to be VP.
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I was off on the 95%, actually 71% of never heard of him.
:"The poll found that only 17 percent of Americans view Walz favorably, while 12 percent view him unfavorably. The 17 and 12 percent marks appear to be so low because many Americans (71 percent) "
This is actually the first picture I've seen of him. If I was a minority living in the south what are the first thoughts that go through my head when I see this picture. They were my first thoughts, and I'm not even a minority. LOL
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EB back with the political posts.
Quote: tuttigymVery big of you to admit that you are among the uninformed.
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Personal insult, hijacking -- Three days.
I also made my first deposit, for $500, to PredictIt. I had to send them pictures of my drivers license and myself, which their system made very easy to do. My method of deposit was by credit card. The entire process was surprisingly simple and fast.
I then purchased 500 shares of the Democratic party at $0.55 per share. That means that if they win, I get $500. It presumes a 55% chance of it winning and is equivalent to laying -122.
It should be noted there is a 5% transaction fee on withdrawals.
I should also let the record show that on 2/23/24 I bet $500 at +105 on Biden against all other outcomes. Clearly, I lost that one.
Quote: TigerWuElectionbettingodds.com has Harris almost caught up to Trump. This is the closest they've had the Dem candidate to Trump since April when Biden was ahead for almost the entire month.
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Honeymoon period. She as not said anything in a week. Her Veep pick has some radical background that will eat into this.
Quote: AZDuffman
Honeymoon period.
Possibly.
Quote:She as not said anything in a week.
Not sure what you mean by this. She had a huge rally yesterday, and is doing several more over the next few days.
Quote:Her Veep pick has some radical background that will eat into this.
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Also not sure what you mean by this, but it sounds like it might get political so we probably should discuss it.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: TigerWuElectionbettingodds.com has Harris almost caught up to Trump. This is the closest they've had the Dem candidate to Trump since April when Biden was ahead for almost the entire month.
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Honeymoon period. She as not said anything in a week. Her Veep pick has some radical background that will eat into this.
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Do Duffman and EB have some immunity from getting suspended for Political posts that the rest of us don’t know about?
Also, this is kind of funny:
Quote: TigerWuQuote: AZDuffman
Honeymoon period.
Possibly.Quote:She as not said anything in a week.
Not sure what you mean by this. She had a huge rally yesterday, and is doing several more over the next few days.Quote:Her Veep pick has some radical background that will eat into this.
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Also not sure what you mean by this, but it sounds like it might get political so we probably should discuss it.
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I mean she has not done a presser in over 2 weeks.
I have pointed out some of his radicalism on the other site.
Quote: TigerWuHarris just passed Trump on Electionbettingodds.com. As I mentioned earlier, last time this happened was with Biden in April. We'll see how long Harris can hold the top spot.
Also, this is kind of funny:
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Gonna be a 3 month long “honeymoon” I guess.
It’s feeling a lot like 2008 out there right now.
Quote: ams288Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: TigerWuElectionbettingodds.com has Harris almost caught up to Trump. This is the closest they've had the Dem candidate to Trump since April when Biden was ahead for almost the entire month.
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Honeymoon period. She as not said anything in a week. Her Veep pick has some radical background that will eat into this.
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Do Duffman and EB have some immunity from getting suspended for Political posts that the rest of us don’t know about?
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Ams got suspended for a political post?
Quote: darkozAms got suspended for a political post?
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I was suspended for a bit. No idea why.
GOP: 72.5%
DEM: 27.5%
House Control:
DEM: 60.5%
GOP: 39.5%
Source: Electionbettingodds.com, as of this post.
Quote: ams288Quote: darkozAms got suspended for a political post?
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I was suspended for a bit. No idea why.
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The only time you've been suspended in the last 20 months is: 3 days suspension on March 9, 2023 for a personal insult. No biggie.
Here is the link to our Suspension List. If you click on the words describing the nature of your 3/9/23 offense it will bring you to the post that got you suspended. It's all water under the bridge now.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: ams288Quote: darkozAms got suspended for a political post?
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I was suspended for a bit. No idea why.
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The only time you've been suspended in the last 20 months is: 3 days suspension on March 9, 2023 for a personal insult. No biggie.
Here is the link to our Suspension List. If you click on the words describing the nature of your 3/9/23 offense it will bring you to the post that got you suspended. It's all water under the bridge now.
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Don’t gaslight.
I was unable to post today and my name was red. DarkOz clearly noticed too.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: ams288Quote: darkozAms got suspended for a political post?
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I was suspended for a bit. No idea why.
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The only time you've been suspended in the last 20 months is: 3 days suspension on March 9, 2023 for a personal insult. No biggie.
Here is the link to our Suspension List. If you click on the words describing the nature of your 3/9/23 offense it will bring you to the post that got you suspended. It's all water under the bridge now.
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Yes ams was in red for a brief time today.
Based on your response I would suspect some technical issue. Or perhaps a mod did it by accident. Last night there was an attack of sorts on the site with multiple fake accounts opened, spam posts and subsequent nukes. Maybe that's unrelated but perhaps AMS was accidentally knocked off in the defense of the site?
Quote: ams288I was suspended for a bit. No idea why.
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It was me. I was going to suspend you for this post as having nothing to do with betting the election. However, it didn't betray what side what want to win, so I changed my mind. Consider it a five-minute suspension.
Quote:Marquette National poll (A+), July 24-Aug 1
Head-to-head:
Kamala Harris 53%
Donald Trump 47%
3-way race:
Kamala Harris 50%
Donald Trump 42%
Kennedy Jr. 6%
Marquette's prior polls:
—May: Trump led 44/41
—March: 41/41 tie
—February: Trump 43/40
"Vice President Kamala Harris has now emerged as the bookmakers’ favorite to win the presidential election, highlighting her campaign’s momentum as she rapidly cut into former President Donald Trump’s lead in the betting markets over the past two weeks."
Quote: terapinedhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/08/09/harris-has-vaulted-past-trump-as-the-bookies-favorite-to-win-presidential-election/
"Vice President Kamala Harris has now emerged as the bookmakers’ favorite to win the presidential election, highlighting her campaign’s momentum as she rapidly cut into former President Donald Trump’s lead in the betting markets over the past two weeks."
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My advice to you is to take every dime you can find and bet on her to win. How could you possibly lose, her campaigns momentum is obviously unstoppable and will only grow larger as time goes on. I think you should even go into debt betting on her, that's the ticket.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: terapinedhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/08/09/harris-has-vaulted-past-trump-as-the-bookies-favorite-to-win-presidential-election/
"Vice President Kamala Harris has now emerged as the bookmakers’ favorite to win the presidential election, highlighting her campaign’s momentum as she rapidly cut into former President Donald Trump’s lead in the betting markets over the past two weeks."
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My advice to you is to take every dime you can find and bet on her to win. How could you possibly lose, her campaigns momentum is obviously unstoppable and will only grow larger as time goes on. I think you should even go into debt betting on her, that's the ticket.
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Why the snarky response????????
I posted Forbes article link with a quote from the article.
That's it. I made no comment.
The article is very appropriate for the narrow discussion this thread is restricted to. The article itself was not political.
It's pretty weird you are going snark on me making it personal.
It's almost as if you are upset the odds have changed and now need to take out your anger on me
Quote: terapinedQuote: EvenBobQuote: terapinedhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/08/09/harris-has-vaulted-past-trump-as-the-bookies-favorite-to-win-presidential-election/
"Vice President Kamala Harris has now emerged as the bookmakers’ favorite to win the presidential election, highlighting her campaign’s momentum as she rapidly cut into former President Donald Trump’s lead in the betting markets over the past two weeks."
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My advice to you is to take every dime you can find and bet on her to win. How could you possibly lose, her campaigns momentum is obviously unstoppable and will only grow larger as time goes on. I think you should even go into debt betting on her, that's the ticket.
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Why the snarky response????????
I posted Forbes article link with a quote from the article.
That's it. I made no comment.
The article is very appropriate for the narrow discussion this thread is restricted to. The article itself was not political.
It's pretty weird you are going snark on me making it personal.
It's almost as if you are upset the odds have changed and now need to take out your anger on me
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Nope, not upset at all. This is not November 1st, this is August 9th. Somebody made the same suggestion to me when I posted that Trump was ahead in the odds. But I didn't get upset because I don't take everything personally.
Harris at 50.6%, Trump at 46.7%.
Quote: terapinedQuote: EvenBobQuote: terapinedhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/08/09/harris-has-vaulted-past-trump-as-the-bookies-favorite-to-win-presidential-election/
"Vice President Kamala Harris has now emerged as the bookmakers’ favorite to win the presidential election, highlighting her campaign’s momentum as she rapidly cut into former President Donald Trump’s lead in the betting markets over the past two weeks."
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My advice to you is to take every dime you can find and bet on her to win. How could you possibly lose, her campaigns momentum is obviously unstoppable and will only grow larger as time goes on. I think you should even go into debt betting on her, that's the ticket.
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Why the snarky response????????
I posted Forbes article link with a quote from the article.
That's it. I made no comment.
The article is very appropriate for the narrow discussion this thread is restricted to. The article itself was not political.
It's pretty weird you are going snark on me making it personal.
It's almost as if you are upset the odds have changed and now need to take out your anger on me
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I shall risk incurring the wrath of EB by posting these brand new swing state polls without comment:
Quote:New NYT/SIENA swing state polls (A+), Aug 5-9, LV
Michigan 🟦 Harris 50% 🟥 Trump 46%
Pennsylvania 🟦 Harris 50% 🟥 Trump 46%
Wisconsin 🟦 Harris 50% 🟥 Trump 46%
Quote: TigerWuFor those that think Harris is in a "honeymoon period," when do you think that will end? Not looking for political discussions or reasons so as not to get the thread locked, just asking for a specific date or time period.
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For one when she actually starts talking. No pressers in what 20 days? History shows the more she talks the less people like her.
For a second when Trump starts running more ads. He is clearly conserving general election funds while she can still spend primary funds donated for Biden. This happens every cycle and is why the party in power sets their convention late.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: TigerWuFor those that think Harris is in a "honeymoon period," when do you think that will end? Not looking for political discussions or reasons so as not to get the thread locked, just asking for a specific date or time period.
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For one when she actually starts talking. No pressers in what 20 days? History shows the more she talks the less people like her.
For a second when Trump starts running more ads. He is clearly conserving general election funds while she can still spend primary funds donated for Biden. This happens every cycle and is why the party in power sets their convention late.
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TigerWu asks for a specific time period or date.
Duffman provides…. this political post.
But no worries, he won’t even get a 5 min suspension cause he and EB are immune for some reason.
Quote: ams288Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: TigerWuFor those that think Harris is in a "honeymoon period," when do you think that will end? Not looking for political discussions or reasons so as not to get the thread locked, just asking for a specific date or time period.
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For one when she actually starts talking. No pressers in what 20 days? History shows the more she talks the less people like her.
For a second when Trump starts running more ads. He is clearly conserving general election funds while she can still spend primary funds donated for Biden. This happens every cycle and is why the party in power sets their convention late.
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TigerWu asks for a specific time period or date.
Duffman provides…. this political post.
But no worries, he won’t even get a 5 min suspension cause he and EB are immune for some reason.
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AZ's answer also shows how problematic Fox News can be. The suggestion that no one has heard Kamala talk in 20 days is ridiculous. I have watched her speeches every day.
And the suggestion she is only using Biden raised funds is also laughable. I guess Fox hasn't mentioned she has raised record breaking funds. Over $325 million SINCE she started running.
There is a reason her odds for winning are consistently rising (keeping this post in context of betting odds)
Lots of visits to Vegas
Recent campaign rallies starkly different here in Vegas
Fascinating
Trump at Sunset Park vs Harris at the Thomas and Mack
One rally held outside in the brutal Vegas sun done on the cheap
One rally pays to rent a facility to provide all with AC
In an effort to increase the 10%, I'll ask if anyone knows if you can bet on the EXACT electoral count. I know PI has a market for margin of victory and winner, but is there an opportunity anywhere to bet on one specific outcome?
Arizona State alone has given us a couple hundred volunteers in the last month. The other party doesn't even have a dedicated campaign headquarters up and running yet.
Quote: terapinedNevada is a battleground state
Lots of visits to Vegas
Recent campaign rallies starkly different here in Vegas
Fascinating
Trump at Sunset Park vs Harris at the Thomas and Mack
One rally held outside in the brutal Vegas sun done on the cheap
One rally pays to rent a facility to provide all with AC
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I don't see anything to do with betting the election in your post. Three days.
I'm getting close to closing the thread.
Quote: billryanI'm temporarily working for a political campaign in Tucson. Up until three weeks ago, we were hitting our money targets but were well below the ideal number of volunteers an effective campaign needs to get out the vote and generate enthusiasm. That has changed.
Arizona State alone has given us a couple hundred volunteers in the last month. The other party doesn't even have a dedicated campaign headquarters up and running yet.
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I don't see anything to do with BETTING the election in this post either. Three days. I haven't seen a substantive post about a bet in days. Thread closed for at least a week.
Quote: EvenBobI was off on the 95%, actually 71% of never heard of him.
:"The poll found that only 17 percent of Americans view Walz favorably, while 12 percent view him unfavorably. The 17 and 12 percent marks appear to be so low because many Americans (71 percent) "
This is actually the first picture I've seen of him. If I was a minority living in the south what are the first thoughts that go through my head when I see this picture. They were my first thoughts, and I'm not even a minority. LOL
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This post is not compliant with the special rules of the betting the election thread. In particular, it has nothing to do with an actual wager. To be consistent with other recent similar suspensions, three days.
Reminder that posts in this thread MUST have something to do with betting the election or at least polling.
As a reminder, the 2020 results of the electoral college were:
Biden: 306
Trump: 232
The following table shows the seven closest states.
| State | Biden | Trump | Diff | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | 48.59% | 49.93% | -1.34% | 15 |
| AZ | 49.36% | 49.06% | 0.30% | 11 |
| WI | 49.45% | 48.82% | 0.63% | 10 |
| GA | 49.47% | 49.24% | 0.23% | 16 |
| PA | 49.85% | 48.69% | 1.16% | 20 |
| NV | 50.06% | 47.67% | 2.39% | 6 |
| MI | 50.62% | 47.84% | 2.78% | 16 |
Trump needs to hold North Carolina and flip 38 other votes. I can picture Pennsylvania and Georgia flipping, which would give him 36.
Here are situations which result in an electoral college tie as listed by the states above Trump winning:
WI, GA, PA, NV
NC, NV, MI
NC, AZ, PA, NV
Here is a nice arbitrage situation on a silver platter.
Here are the odds in the European format at both books:
Pinnacle:
Harris 2.49
Trump 1.57471
PredictIt
Harris: 2.12766
Trump: 1.88679
Bet on Harris at Pinnacle and Trump at PredictIt. To lock in the same profit, regardless of who wins, bet 31.97% more on Trump. That will ensure a 7.34% advantage. I wish I had access to Pinnacle to bet this myself.
Reminder that posts in this thread should be about betting the election or at least about polling. Posts professing a political opinion will result in an immediate suspension. No more warnings.
Quote: Wizard
Reminder that posts in this thread MUST have something to do with betting the election or at least polling.
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You know that won't sink in to some people's heads here so when they violate that please just ban them and not the thread because this threads going to end in 17 days anyway.
(2) My electoral college tracker. I made this webpage that shows how the electoral college result would play out based on current polling, updating automatically 3x/day. It's based on data from 270toWin, which is only very slightly biased towards Trump. I haven't had time to try to scrape data from 538 which is a little more accurate because they adjust the polls for things like partisan lean, historical accuracy, etc., but the difference between 538 and 270toWin is tiny anyway. Nate Silver's data is likely even better but his data is paywalled so it wouldn't be right for me to scrape it.
(3) Bet on what you don't want. Many of you are probably familiar with the game theory idea that you should bet on the result you DON'T want to happen, so that you win either way. For example, say you want Trump to win. In that case you bet on Harris. You will either get the result you want (a Trump win) or a payday (your consolation prize for not getting the result you want). If you bet on the result you want, then you can lose twice: you don't get your desired result, and you lose money on top of that, insult to injury. I always bet on the outcome I don't want.
(4) Nate Silver's newsletter. I subscribe to the newsletter of famed political odds analyst Nate Silver, I think it's like $20/mo. He's well versed in the gambling aspect, and uses all the terminology we're familiar with (e.g, Expected Value), and his newsletters sometimes point out where bettors can get an advantage where he thinks bookmakers are misplacing the contests. As an aside, I note that whenever Silver has Harris as the favorite, Republicans on X say that Silver is corrupt, and when Silver has Trump as the favorite, Democrats on X say the same thing. Neither side thinks it's possible that Silver is simply analyzing the data and reporting the result objectively (unless their side is winning.)
Quote: EvenBobQuote: Wizard
Reminder that posts in this thread MUST have something to do with betting the election or at least polling.
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You know that won't sink in to some people's heads here so when they violate that please just ban them and not the thread because this threads going to end in 17 days anyway.
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I do not believe this will be resolved in 17 days.
Is there a market for that, somewhere?
Darn, I just emptied my life savings yesterday and bet it all on Jill Stein.
Trump: 59.0
Harris: 39.8
RCP also has him leading in all the battleground states although most of these are well within the margin of error. His campaign just seems to be peaking right as the election enters the final stretch. It's still close, but there's no doubt that Trump currently has the momentum.
Harris, on the other hand, seems to be stuck in second gear. I can't say she's made any recent unforced errors as the moves she has made play well with her core base of support. The trouble is, most of the moves don't appear to help her much beyond that core base of support.
Quote: GialmereTrump has certainly taken a substantial lead in the RCP betting averages...
Trump: 59.0
Harris: 39.8
RCP also has him leading in all the battleground states although most of these are well within the margin of error. riginal post
Because 95% of the companies that do the polling always over sample Democrats if it's tied or Trump has a slim lead it actually means Trump has a substantial lead. The closer we get to the election as always the polls will tighten up because everybody wants to be as accurate as possible close to the election so they don't get laughed at and lose business.
Quote: DeucekiesWhat do the books base these betting lines on? Is it possible for them to be 100% objective without reflecting the bookmaker's personal bias?
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As far as I know there are no lines, it's all contract pricing based on user bids and asks. I suppose there could be a risk of violating some election or campaign finance law if a corporate bookmaker offered a line .
