Election Betting
Quote: BillHasRetired
TL;DR: He's an academic, on the conservative side, and enjoys a generally good reputation on his side of the political spectrum.
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Wikipedia is meaningless
He announced this on an extremist right wing network
That alone is weird
Does he have a WH source or is he throwing BS against the wall.
I siding on BS
The most right wing network on the planet has a guy with an exclusive WH source
Doesn't pass the smell test
I'm thinking he hopes this pans out giving himself some credibility just by taking an educated guess
Quote: BillHasRetiredQuote: terapinedQuote: BillHasRetiredBiden apparently has tested positive for COVID, and has flown back to Delaware instead of Washington, DC. He's cancelled everything for the next 6 days or so.
Let the markets rock!
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??????
I don't think the markets go up or down due to Biden having covid
What is your logic?
He tested positive yesterday and my tech stocks tanked.
Tech stocks will probably recover today but may not make back today what was lost yesterday
Now if Jerome Powell got covid
That's a different story
He has way way way more influence on the markets then old man Biden
Powell himself could rock the market just by mentioning a fed rate cut
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I could well ask where your logic is behind your statement "Tech stocks will probably recover today but may not make back today what was lost yesterday"
The operative word is "probably" because I'll be the 1st to admit I don't know Jack what determines the market to go up and down.
Long term investor just in it for the ride 😀
I am big on NVDA and TSM
The 25th Amendment states that any such VP nomination must be ratified by a majority of both Houses of Congress. Given that the Senate is 51D-49R and the House is 213D-220R; 2 Senators and 20 Representatives (all Democrats) have all called for Biden to quit the race; and there are other complications behind the scenes (such as the conviction of Sen Robert Menendez (D) in the gold-bar bribery case, I really don't see how Pres. Biden would ever be ratified.Quote: MDawgBiden could resign the Presidency, Harris steps in to nominate Biden VP and then they move forward as a designated one two punch on the party nomination ticket too. The resignation and nomination aren’t integral to the third step but it makes it all come together.
I believe that would as well solve funding issues and over all could boost Democratic chances to win the election.
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Quote: darkoz(heavily snipped)
What would be banana republic is if Biden steps down and then congress refuses to ratify Harris.
They would use the same argument they used with Merrick Garland supreme court nomination. Too close to election, let the people decide who will be president.
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If/When Pres Biden resigns the office of POTUS, Harris as the VP becomes POTUS, no ratification required. (25th Amendment, Section 1) This comprehensively solved the succession question, as well as directing that the actual title of the successor is President of the United States, not Acting President.
Well, if you are going to be pedantic, then my statement "Let the markets rock!" is an exhortation, not a statement of fact or deduction. No logic is required to support an exhortation.Quote: terapinedQuote: BillHasRetiredQuote: terapinedQuote: BillHasRetiredBiden apparently has tested positive for COVID, and has flown back to Delaware instead of Washington, DC. He's cancelled everything for the next 6 days or so.
Let the markets rock!
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??????
I don't think the markets go up or down due to Biden having covid
What is your logic?
He tested positive yesterday and my tech stocks tanked.
Tech stocks will probably recover today but may not make back today what was lost yesterday
Now if Jerome Powell got covid
That's a different story
He has way way way more influence on the markets then old man Biden
Powell himself could rock the market just by mentioning a fed rate cut
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I could well ask where your logic is behind your statement "Tech stocks will probably recover today but may not make back today what was lost yesterday"
The operative word is "probably" because I'll be the 1st to admit I don't know Jack what determines the market to go up and down.
Long term investor just in it for the ride 😀
I am big on NVDA and TSM
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Quote: OnceDearBiden with covid? an honourable off ramp for him?
Is anyone running a book on whether/when he steps aside?
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I'm not running a book.
I do find it telling to announce that he'll step down if there's a medical diagnosis, then later in the day break the news of Covid.
I characterise is as semi-honourable. The honourable off-ramp was at least a week ago.
Quote: BillHasRetiredQuote: darkoz(heavily snipped)
What would be banana republic is if Biden steps down and then congress refuses to ratify Harris.
They would use the same argument they used with Merrick Garland supreme court nomination. Too close to election, let the people decide who will be president.
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If/When Pres Biden resigns the office of POTUS, Harris as the VP becomes POTUS, no ratification required. (25th Amendment, Section 1) This comprehensively solved the succession question, as well as directing that the actual title of the successor is President of the United States, not Acting President.
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The talk is not of him resigning POTUS, just out of the race. He resigns POTUS he really hurts whoever takes his place on the ticket as all the oxygen out of the news cycles for days to weeks.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: BillHasRetiredQuote: darkoz(heavily snipped)
What would be banana republic is if Biden steps down and then congress refuses to ratify Harris.
They would use the same argument they used with Merrick Garland supreme court nomination. Too close to election, let the people decide who will be president.
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If/When Pres Biden resigns the office of POTUS, Harris as the VP becomes POTUS, no ratification required. (25th Amendment, Section 1) This comprehensively solved the succession question, as well as directing that the actual title of the successor is President of the United States, not Acting President.
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The talk is not of him resigning POTUS, just out of the race. He resigns POTUS he really hurts whoever takes his place on the ticket as all the oxygen out of the news cycles for days to weeks.
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Let's see what happens to the odds now. Joe Biden just sent a letter from Delaware saying that he's not quitting the race, he's doubling down because he knows he can win. The more people from his own party that ask him to step down just makes him dig in even deeper. I saw this in my father-in-law when they tried to take his car keys away from him and they finally refused to give him a driver's license. The more people he had against him the more he fought to win because he could not see what he had become.
Quote: DrawingDeadQuote: Wizard<SNIP>
...Teddy Roosevelt.
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Saturday’s Trump incident brings to mind a similar event, in October 1912 involving Teddy RooseveltQuote: Charles Apple - The Spokesman-ReviewWhen Roosevelt reached into his coat pocket for his speech, he discovered what had saved his life: The bullet had shattered his eyeglass case and put a hole through his 50 pages of prepared remarks.
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I bet they were filed down.
The blue team's "Dump Biden" faction feels that keeping Biden as their candidate will depress voter turnout, cause more blue states to become battlegrounds, and wreak havoc with the down ballot candidates. Because of this, they point to polls showing 65% of party members want him gone.
But...
That means 35% of party members want him to stay, a big number. They've made it clear that, should Biden be forced out, they will protest by not voting. Suppose that only 25% of the Biden loyalists carry out such a threat. That's more than enough to depress voter turnout, cause more blue states to become battlegrounds, and wreak havoc with the down ballot candidates.
What to do?
Quote: GialmereTalk about a rock and a hard place.
The blue team's "Dump Biden" faction feels that keeping Biden as their candidate will depress voter turnout, cause more blue states to become battlegrounds, and wreak havoc with the down ballot candidates. Because of this, they point to polls showing 65% of party members want him gone.
But...
That means 35% of party members want him to stay, a big number. They've made it clear that, should Biden be forced out, they will protest by not voting. Suppose that only 25% of the Biden loyalists carry out such a threat. That's more than enough to depress voter turnout, cause more blue states to become battlegrounds, and wreak havoc with the down ballot candidates.
What to do?
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This is where gut feel comes in. Before these things were researched to death you just made the decision. Today I think party leaders don’t grasp going without huge research and I think it is a tad worse for the Democrats.
Quote: GialmereTalk about a rock and a hard place.
The blue team's "Dump Biden" faction feels that keeping Biden as their candidate will depress voter turnout, cause more blue states to become battlegrounds, and wreak havoc with the down ballot candidates. Because of this, they point to polls showing 65% of party members want him gone.
But...
That means 35% of party members want him to stay, a big number. They've made it clear that, should Biden be forced out, they will protest by not voting. Suppose that only 25% of the Biden loyalists carry out such a threat. That's more than enough to depress voter turnout, cause more blue states to become battlegrounds, and wreak havoc with the down ballot candidates.
What to do?
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If you really believe what you wrote…. the answer is OBVIOUS…
BET on the Republicans to win their races!
As Gialmere says, this is indeed a very hard spot for the Democrats. If they stay with Biden, they are stuck with a nominee who is further tarnished by all the Democrats who are saying pubicly that he should step aside. If Biden does step aside, the party may break down fractally into camps that support Biden or Harris or Thing 1 and Thing 2.
I think the simplest solution is for Biden to stubbornly stick to his guns and refuse to step down. Nature favors simplicity (and if nature doesn't then Sherlock Holmes does.) I still wonder if the Biden outcome is a bit more probable than the odds currently reflect.
In non-gambling polling, Trump is ahead of Biden by a little over 3%.
Quote: TigerWuNot much has happened odds-wise in the last several days. Trump is still holding steady in the low 60's, and Harris is still ahead of Biden for the general election. Nominee-wise, Harris is over Biden 54% to 26%.
In non-gambling polling, Trump is ahead of Biden by a little over 3%.
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Non-gambling polling is all that matters. A 3% lead for Trump will not be enough to convince Biden to step down.
Gambling odds are made to guarantee profit for the bookmakers. As such, their numbers can be skewed.
Quote: darkozQuote: TigerWuNot much has happened odds-wise in the last several days. Trump is still holding steady in the low 60's, and Harris is still ahead of Biden for the general election. Nominee-wise, Harris is over Biden 54% to 26%.
In non-gambling polling, Trump is ahead of Biden by a little over 3%.
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Non-gambling polling is all that matters. A 3% lead for Trump will not be enough to convince Biden to step down.
Gambling odds are made to guarantee profit for the bookmakers. As such, their numbers can be skewed.
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Biden knows as well as anybody how bad Trump being ahead by 3% is. Trump can lose the general election by two or three percent and still crush the Electoral College.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: darkozQuote: TigerWuNot much has happened odds-wise in the last several days. Trump is still holding steady in the low 60's, and Harris is still ahead of Biden for the general election. Nominee-wise, Harris is over Biden 54% to 26%.
In non-gambling polling, Trump is ahead of Biden by a little over 3%.
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Non-gambling polling is all that matters. A 3% lead for Trump will not be enough to convince Biden to step down.
Gambling odds are made to guarantee profit for the bookmakers. As such, their numbers can be skewed.
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Biden knows as well as anybody how bad Trump being ahead by 3% is. Trump can lose the general election by two or three percent and still crush the Electoral College.
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That's assuming the 3% lead is static through November.
My point is a 3% lead is something that can be reasonably nudged in your favor between now and election day.
As we get closer those voters who don't follow politics but still cast their vote will come into play.
Quote: BillHasRetiredQuote: darkoz(heavily snipped)
What would be banana republic is if Biden steps down and then congress refuses to ratify Harris.
They would use the same argument they used with Merrick Garland supreme court nomination. Too close to election, let the people decide who will be president.
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If/When Pres Biden resigns the office of POTUS, Harris as the VP becomes POTUS, no ratification required. (25th Amendment, Section 1) This comprehensively solved the succession question, as well as directing that the actual title of the successor is President of the United States, not Acting President.
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Yes, but the original post was referring to Biden being named as the replacement VP for Harris. Whoever President Harris did nominate to replace herself as VP has to be confirmed by both houses of Congress (25th Amendment, section 2). Until then, there would be no VP, which could be important as there would be no tiebreaking vote in the Senate. This is not unheard of; until the 25th Amendment was ratified, whenever the VP became President, there would be no VP until the next election. (LBJ had no VP until Humphrey was sworn in in January, 1965.)
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: BillHasRetiredQuote: darkoz(heavily snipped)
What would be banana republic is if Biden steps down and then congress refuses to ratify Harris.
They would use the same argument they used with Merrick Garland supreme court nomination. Too close to election, let the people decide who will be president.
link to original post
If/When Pres Biden resigns the office of POTUS, Harris as the VP becomes POTUS, no ratification required. (25th Amendment, Section 1) This comprehensively solved the succession question, as well as directing that the actual title of the successor is President of the United States, not Acting President.
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Yes, but the original post was referring to Biden being named as the replacement VP for Harris. Whoever President Harris did nominate to replace herself as VP has to be confirmed by both houses of Congress (25th Amendment, section 2). Until then, there would be no VP, which could be important as there would be no tiebreaking vote in the Senate. This is not unheard of; until the 25th Amendment was ratified, whenever the VP became President, there would be no VP until the next election. (LBJ had no VP until Humphrey was sworn in in January, 1965.)
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Right. In fact isn't that why Ford became president when Nixon stepped down? Agnew had already been removed as VP due to his shenanigans leaving the VP vacant.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: darkozQuote: TigerWuNot much has happened odds-wise in the last several days. Trump is still holding steady in the low 60's, and Harris is still ahead of Biden for the general election. Nominee-wise, Harris is over Biden 54% to 26%.
In non-gambling polling, Trump is ahead of Biden by a little over 3%.
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Non-gambling polling is all that matters. A 3% lead for Trump will not be enough to convince Biden to step down.
Gambling odds are made to guarantee profit for the bookmakers. As such, their numbers can be skewed.
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Biden knows as well as anybody how bad Trump being ahead by 3% is. Trump can lose the general election by two or three percent and still crush the Electoral College.
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I’ve seen educated pollsters (not EB) say that the Electoral College/popular vote gap will shrink this year to ~1% due in part to the slight reddening of NY state (and continuing deep reddening of FL).
America and other nations have been putting ridiculous people into positions of political power for some time now. Being comically ridiculous is an electoral asset.
Quote: ams288I think there is enough evidence from the past decade to show that debates don’t matter at all.
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Okay, NOW we can officially say this post of mine aged very, very poorly.
Was the June 27th debate the most consequential debate in US political history?
Let the fun begin.
Quote: DRichWho will surprise us and run? Obviously Harris will, I am interested in seeing who comes out of nowhere and runs.
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I will not seek, nor will I accept...
Trump 61. Harris 38.
Can’t wait for the debates!!!
Nominate Trump! But put in their own VP.
Something happens to Trump their person is in. 2028 their person has the inside track.
It has been attempted before.
Quote: SOOPOOAfter the big news……. Predictit….
Trump 61. Harris 38.
Can’t wait for the debates!!!
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Will there be debates?
I can’t get into why I’m skeptical.
"Clinton is a ready-made replacement. She possesses an unparalleled resume and an unmatched depth of experience. She has consistently redefined the roles she has served, from secretary of State and U.S. senator to first lady and Children’s Defense Fund attorney. Her extensive background in domestic and international affairs is not just impressive; at a time when global politics are increasingly volatile and complex, her experience is priceless." The Hill Magazine
'It's a possibility': Talks of Hillary Clinton replacing Joe Biden Sky News Australia
Quote: DieterQuote: DRichWho will surprise us and run? Obviously Harris will, I am interested in seeing who comes out of nowhere and runs.
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I will not seek, nor will I accept...
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Except Lyndon Johnson did it in March, he didn't wait till 30 days from the convention.
Quote: EvenBobI'm hearing lots of talk the last few days that Hillary is looking at getting back in. A Hillary/Trump election again. She would poll better than Harris.
"Clinton is a ready-made replacement. She possesses an unparalleled resume and an unmatched depth of experience. She has consistently redefined the roles she has served, from secretary of State and U.S. senator to first lady and Children’s Defense Fund attorney. Her extensive background in domestic and international affairs is not just impressive; at a time when global politics are increasingly volatile and complex, her experience is priceless." The Hill Magazine
'It's a possibility': Talks of Hillary Clinton replacing Joe Biden Sky News Australia
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Hillary isn't getting in. Stop the republican fantasizing.
BTW, Hillary has endorsed Kamala for president already
Quote: EvenBobI'm hearing lots of talk the last few days that Hillary is looking at getting back in. A Hillary/Trump election again. She would poll better than Harris.
"Clinton is a ready-made replacement. She possesses an unparalleled resume and an unmatched depth of experience. She has consistently redefined the roles she has served, from secretary of State and U.S. senator to first lady and Children’s Defense Fund attorney. Her extensive background in domestic and international affairs is not just impressive; at a time when global politics are increasingly volatile and complex, her experience is priceless." The Hill Magazine
'It's a possibility': Talks of Hillary Clinton replacing Joe Biden Sky News Australia
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Hillary is 76 and neither needs nor wants the aggravation and both her and Bill have endorsed Harris. Neither Sky News nor The Hill are reputable news sources for US electoral politics. The surest bet you can make is Hillary NOT running.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: DieterQuote: DRichWho will surprise us and run? Obviously Harris will, I am interested in seeing who comes out of nowhere and runs.
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I will not seek, nor will I accept...
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Except Lyndon Johnson did it in March, he didn't wait till 30 days from the convention.
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I'm tongue-in-cheek.
Nobody wants me as POTUS.
Quote: EvenBobI'm hearing lots of talk the last few days that Hillary is looking at getting back in. A Hillary/Trump election again. She would poll better than Harris.
"Clinton is a ready-made replacement. She possesses an unparalleled resume and an unmatched depth of experience. She has consistently redefined the roles she has served, from secretary of State and U.S. senator to first lady and Children’s Defense Fund attorney. Her extensive background in domestic and international affairs is not just impressive; at a time when global politics are increasingly volatile and complex, her experience is priceless." The Hill Magazine
'It's a possibility': Talks of Hillary Clinton replacing Joe Biden Sky News Australia
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Good lord, you’re talking about Hillary again?
Quote: EvenBobI'm hearing lots of talk the last few days that Hillary is looking at getting back in. A Hillary/Trump election again. She would poll better than Harris.
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The problem is, the primaries are over, and the convention delegates have been selected, the vast majority, if not all, of which are pledged to support Biden. While the Democratic Convention rules say that each delegate is only required to "in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them," Hillary would have a tough task of convincing a majority of the pledged delegates (remember, the "superdelegates" are not allowed to vote on the first ballot if their votes would change the result) that the "people who elected them" want them to nominate her over Kamala - or her over Gavin Newsom, for that matter.
Quote: Dieter
I'm tongue-in-cheek.
Nobody wants me as POTUS.
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Hmmm, might there be an Assumed Nominee, United States? (just joking)
Michelle Obama has agreed to be vice.
just kidding.
It will be Oprah.
You have chosen...poorly.Quote: terapinedQuote: BillHasRetired
TL;DR: He's an academic, on the conservative side, and enjoys a generally good reputation on his side of the political spectrum.
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Wikipedia is meaningless
He announced this on an extremist right wing network
That alone is weird
Does he have a WH source or is he throwing BS against the wall.
I siding on BS
The most right wing network on the planet has a guy with an exclusive WH source
Doesn't pass the smell test
I'm thinking he hopes this pans out giving himself some credibility just by taking an educated guess
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Just thinking along these lines...Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: EvenBobI'm hearing lots of talk the last few days that Hillary is looking at getting back in. A Hillary/Trump election again. She would poll better than Harris.
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The problem is, the primaries are over, and the convention delegates have been selected, the vast majority, if not all, of which are pledged to support Biden. While the Democratic Convention rules say that each delegate is only required to "in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them," Hillary would have a tough task of convincing a majority of the pledged delegates (remember, the "superdelegates" are not allowed to vote on the first ballot if their votes would change the result) that the "people who elected them" want them to nominate her over Kamala - or her over Gavin Newsom, for that matter.
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I agree with Don for the first part, defining what the delegates are pledged to do. However, I do believe that in the hours and days to come, we will hear of Biden officially releasing his delegates from the requirement to vote for him at the convention. He cannot order them to vote for anyone else, but he can suggest, endorse, recommend, or condemn anyone he wants to, but that is not binding on the delegates. Thus, we have a brokered convention.
The last brokered convention (when there no candidate has gained a majority of delegates on the first ballot) was 1952 for the Republicans,and, two weeks later, in the same venue, the Democrats also failed to select a candidate on the first ballot. This happened in....Chicago. This year's Dem convention is in....Chicago. The last time the Dems were in Chi-town was in 1968, where a series of riots happened around the convention site. The (D)s launched an investigation of what went wrong, and the result of that was implemented in the 1972 convention.
Chicago. Too weird to be true...but it is.
I think it is fair to consider her return as a possibility until someone beheads her, burns her alive, then scatters the ashes to the four corners of the world, in case she attempts to re-form herself from her constituent atoms.
Quote:Sources close to Sen Joe Manchin, independent of WV, say he's considering re-registering as a Democrat and throwing his hat into the ring
Must…. resist…… commenting…… on….. this.
Quote: BillHasRetired
The last brokered convention (when there no candidate has gained a majority of delegates on the first ballot) was 1952 for the Republicans,and, two weeks later, in the same venue, the Democrats also failed to select a candidate on the first ballot.
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Abraham Lincoln was confirmed to be the nominee in 1860 after about the 50th ballot as I recall. He was not a popular guy, he was not a popular president, he was barely reelected to a second term and only served one term because he was shot and killed almost immediately after his second term started. It wasn't until years later that people realized he was probably our greatest president.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: BillHasRetired
The last brokered convention (when there no candidate has gained a majority of delegates on the first ballot) was 1952 for the Republicans,and, two weeks later, in the same venue, the Democrats also failed to select a candidate on the first ballot.
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Abraham Lincoln was confirmed to be the nominee in 1860 after about the 50th ballot as I recall. He was not a popular guy, he was not a popular president, he was barely reelected to a second term and only served one term because he was shot and killed almost immediately after his second term started. It wasn't until years later that people realized he was probably our greatest president.
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Um, Lincoln won the nomination on the 3rd ballot in 1860, wona decisive electoral college victory, won 22 states to 3 in 1864, and won 212 electoral votes to 21 and won 55.1% of the popular vote. By all accounts, he gave McClellan a shellacking.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: EvenBobQuote: BillHasRetired
The last brokered convention (when there no candidate has gained a majority of delegates on the first ballot) was 1952 for the Republicans,and, two weeks later, in the same venue, the Democrats also failed to select a candidate on the first ballot.
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Abraham Lincoln was confirmed to be the nominee in 1860 after about the 50th ballot as I recall. He was not a popular guy, he was not a popular president, he was barely reelected to a second term and only served one term because he was shot and killed almost immediately after his second term started. It wasn't until years later that people realized he was probably our greatest president.
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Um, Lincoln won the nomination on the 3rd ballot in 1860, wona decisive electoral college victory, won 22 states to 3 in 1864, and won 212 electoral votes to 21 and won 55.1% of the popular vote. By all accounts, he gave McClellan a shellacking.
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I just read since the assassination attempt on Trump that Lincoln won on the 50th ballot. Why would they be so far off. What would be the point. Do you have to look up everything you read now to fact check it?
Quote: EvenBobQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: EvenBobQuote: BillHasRetired
The last brokered convention (when there no candidate has gained a majority of delegates on the first ballot) was 1952 for the Republicans,and, two weeks later, in the same venue, the Democrats also failed to select a candidate on the first ballot.
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Abraham Lincoln was confirmed to be the nominee in 1860 after about the 50th ballot as I recall. He was not a popular guy, he was not a popular president, he was barely reelected to a second term and only served one term because he was shot and killed almost immediately after his second term started. It wasn't until years later that people realized he was probably our greatest president.
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Um, Lincoln won the nomination on the 3rd ballot in 1860, wona decisive electoral college victory, won 22 states to 3 in 1864, and won 212 electoral votes to 21 and won 55.1% of the popular vote. By all accounts, he gave McClellan a shellacking.
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I just read since the assassination attempt on Trump that Lincoln won on the 50th ballot. Why would they be so far off. What would be the point. Do you have to look up everything you read now to fact check it?
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From Wikipedia
Lincoln's combination of a moderate stance on slavery, long support for economic issues, his western origins, and strong oratory proved to be exactly what the delegates wanted in a president. On the third ballot on May 18, Lincoln secured the nomination overwhelmingly.
Quote: Dieter
I'm tongue-in-cheek.
Nobody wants me as POTUS.
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I would accept you over the current candidates.
