lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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November 7th, 2018 at 3:29:38 AM permalink
there was significant online betting on the location of Amazon's new HQ2 location
now it's been leaked that it will most probably be split between Crystal City in Arlington Va and Long Island City in Queens, NY
so my question is if this happens as expected how will the books resolve this bet?
my answer: I don't know
my best guess is that it will be resolved in the same way as a place bet in horse racing which is this:

PROFIT SPLIT (PLACE POOL) - after the takeout or often called House Edge
Profit is net pool less gross amount bet on all place finishers. Finishers split profit
1/2 and 1/2 (place profit), then divide by gross amount bet on each place finisher for two unique prices
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/technology/amazon-second-headquarters-split.html


Northern Virginia, Virginia -290
Boston, Massachusetts +600
Washington, D.C. +1000
Atlanta, Georgia +1000
Toronto, Ontario +1200
Austin, Texas +1400
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania +2000
Montgomery County, Maryland +2500
Raleigh, North Carolina +3000
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania +4000
Chicago, Illinois +5000
Nashville, Tennessee +6000
New York City, New York +6000
Dallas, Texas +6000
Denver, Colorado +6000
Indianapolis, Indiana +6000
Columbus, Ohio +7000
Newark, New Jersey +7000
Los Angeles, California +8000
Miami, Florida +8500
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 7, 2018
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
GWAE
GWAE
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November 7th, 2018 at 5:15:13 AM permalink
hmm that is interesting.

I am just sad Pittsburgh seems to be out of the running. The mayor made some comments a few weeks ago that it appeared we were not in it for quite some time. I was hoping that my 100k house would skyrocket to 1m since I am in one of the top 3 neighborhoods near the city. Gotta come up with a new way to get rich now.
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AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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November 7th, 2018 at 5:45:31 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

hmm that is interesting.

I am just sad Pittsburgh seems to be out of the running. The mayor made some comments a few weeks ago that it appeared we were not in it for quite some time. I was hoping that my 100k house would skyrocket to 1m since I am in one of the top 3 neighborhoods near the city. Gotta come up with a new way to get rich now.



I gave it 1/10 PIT got it. The airport location would have boomed my neighborhood but no thanks due to the traffic.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
GWAE
GWAE
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November 7th, 2018 at 6:14:16 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I gave it 1/10 PIT got it. The airport location would have boomed my neighborhood but no thanks due to the traffic.



I love living here but I would gladly sell my house for a million and move somewhere else.
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gordonm888
gordonm888
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November 7th, 2018 at 6:19:01 AM permalink
Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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November 7th, 2018 at 7:27:18 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?



Amazon is looking at the average education level and income level among other things and in this area it is quite high.
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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November 7th, 2018 at 8:16:27 AM permalink
In the UK for horse racing if there's a dead heat for first place then half your original wager loses and the other half is paid out. So for instance if the odds of the winners were 4/1 and 33/1 the people backing the 4/1 shot would get (£1+£4)/2 = £2.50 and 33/1 (£1+£33)/2 = £17.

(also see Rule 10 in http://www.tattersallscommittee.co.uk/userfiles/file/Tattersalls%20Committee%20Rules%20on%20Betting%20FINAL.pdf )

Similar logic applies if you bet the "unnamed favourite" to win and there's a joint or co fav, your bet is split across all the joint or co favs and settled accordingly (I suspect there's a special rule if joint favourites are 10/11 as you can't win). On the tote it goes onto the lower racecard number. (Please don't ask what happens if the favourite is a non-runner! This why bookies have a poster of small print with all their rules on.)

I'm guessing something similar happens in the US.
GWAE
GWAE
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November 7th, 2018 at 8:50:37 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?



I think it is clear that amazon is going to milk anything they can get. I am sure they have some sort of agenda in this entire thing. I really hope governments release their proposal to amazon. I wonder if this falls in the right to know act, or only the 2 cities that get the deal.
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ahiromu
ahiromu
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November 7th, 2018 at 9:06:24 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?



A friend at Amazon (with no insider knowledge whatsoever) thinks that Crystal City will be for higher ups (aka lobbying). I tend to agree, Boeing does the same thing. All of the engineers will be elsewhere. But that was predicated on the other HQ2 being in a low cost center in Texas.

I have an apartment within walking distance of the blue metro line in Alexandria (for those that dont know the area, I'm 10-15m by metro from Crystal City). My current rent is $1500 all in plus internet, this is a screaming deal. I'm afraid of what happens if they hire a thousand developers and engineers for the supposed Crystal City campus.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
billryan
billryan
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November 7th, 2018 at 9:55:58 AM permalink
My family owns property in Long Island City and it is already one of the trendiest neighborhoods in the NY region. I'm not sure why Amazon would buy at premium prices when so much land is fallow but I'm hoping this turns out to be true.
Despite its name, Long Island City is simply a neighborhood in Queens. Formerly mostly industrial, recent developments have been residential skyscrapers with amazing views of Manhattan.

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