lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7072
Joined: May 8, 2015
November 7th, 2018 at 3:29:38 AM permalink
there was significant online betting on the location of Amazon's new HQ2 location
now it's been leaked that it will most probably be split between Crystal City in Arlington Va and Long Island City in Queens, NY
so my question is if this happens as expected how will the books resolve this bet?
my answer: I don't know
my best guess is that it will be resolved in the same way as a place bet in horse racing which is this:

PROFIT SPLIT (PLACE POOL) - after the takeout or often called House Edge
Profit is net pool less gross amount bet on all place finishers. Finishers split profit
1/2 and 1/2 (place profit), then divide by gross amount bet on each place finisher for two unique prices
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/technology/amazon-second-headquarters-split.html


Northern Virginia, Virginia -290
Boston, Massachusetts +600
Washington, D.C. +1000
Atlanta, Georgia +1000
Toronto, Ontario +1200
Austin, Texas +1400
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania +2000
Montgomery County, Maryland +2500
Raleigh, North Carolina +3000
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania +4000
Chicago, Illinois +5000
Nashville, Tennessee +6000
New York City, New York +6000
Dallas, Texas +6000
Denver, Colorado +6000
Indianapolis, Indiana +6000
Columbus, Ohio +7000
Newark, New Jersey +7000
Los Angeles, California +8000
Miami, Florida +8500
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 7, 2018
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
November 7th, 2018 at 5:15:13 AM permalink
hmm that is interesting.

I am just sad Pittsburgh seems to be out of the running. The mayor made some comments a few weeks ago that it appeared we were not in it for quite some time. I was hoping that my 100k house would skyrocket to 1m since I am in one of the top 3 neighborhoods near the city. Gotta come up with a new way to get rich now.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 243
  • Posts: 14453
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 7th, 2018 at 5:45:31 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

hmm that is interesting.

I am just sad Pittsburgh seems to be out of the running. The mayor made some comments a few weeks ago that it appeared we were not in it for quite some time. I was hoping that my 100k house would skyrocket to 1m since I am in one of the top 3 neighborhoods near the city. Gotta come up with a new way to get rich now.



I gave it 1/10 PIT got it. The airport location would have boomed my neighborhood but no thanks due to the traffic.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
November 7th, 2018 at 6:14:16 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I gave it 1/10 PIT got it. The airport location would have boomed my neighborhood but no thanks due to the traffic.



I love living here but I would gladly sell my house for a million and move somewhere else.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
  • Threads: 61
  • Posts: 5367
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
November 7th, 2018 at 6:19:01 AM permalink
Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7072
Joined: May 8, 2015
November 7th, 2018 at 7:27:18 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?



Amazon is looking at the average education level and income level among other things and in this area it is quite high.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 3016
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
November 7th, 2018 at 8:16:27 AM permalink
In the UK for horse racing if there's a dead heat for first place then half your original wager loses and the other half is paid out. So for instance if the odds of the winners were 4/1 and 33/1 the people backing the 4/1 shot would get (£1+£4)/2 = £2.50 and 33/1 (£1+£33)/2 = £17.

(also see Rule 10 in http://www.tattersallscommittee.co.uk/userfiles/file/Tattersalls%20Committee%20Rules%20on%20Betting%20FINAL.pdf )

Similar logic applies if you bet the "unnamed favourite" to win and there's a joint or co fav, your bet is split across all the joint or co favs and settled accordingly (I suspect there's a special rule if joint favourites are 10/11 as you can't win). On the tote it goes onto the lower racecard number. (Please don't ask what happens if the favourite is a non-runner! This why bookies have a poster of small print with all their rules on.)

I'm guessing something similar happens in the US.
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
November 7th, 2018 at 8:50:37 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?



I think it is clear that amazon is going to milk anything they can get. I am sure they have some sort of agenda in this entire thing. I really hope governments release their proposal to amazon. I wonder if this falls in the right to know act, or only the 2 cities that get the deal.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
ahiromu
ahiromu
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 2107
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
November 7th, 2018 at 9:06:24 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?



A friend at Amazon (with no insider knowledge whatsoever) thinks that Crystal City will be for higher ups (aka lobbying). I tend to agree, Boeing does the same thing. All of the engineers will be elsewhere. But that was predicated on the other HQ2 being in a low cost center in Texas.

I have an apartment within walking distance of the blue metro line in Alexandria (for those that dont know the area, I'm 10-15m by metro from Crystal City). My current rent is $1500 all in plus internet, this is a screaming deal. I'm afraid of what happens if they hire a thousand developers and engineers for the supposed Crystal City campus.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 251
  • Posts: 17114
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 7th, 2018 at 9:55:58 AM permalink
My family owns property in Long Island City and it is already one of the trendiest neighborhoods in the NY region. I'm not sure why Amazon would buy at premium prices when so much land is fallow but I'm hoping this turns out to be true.
Despite its name, Long Island City is simply a neighborhood in Queens. Formerly mostly industrial, recent developments have been residential skyscrapers with amazing views of Manhattan.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 4300
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
November 7th, 2018 at 10:40:20 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?


DC area is also a huge internet hub, and Amazon already has a huge datacenter in the area.
https://gizmodo.com/5913934/the-bullseye-of-americas-internet
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12683
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
November 7th, 2018 at 12:27:15 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?



Maybe because Bezos already owns both a house and a major newspaper there. If it is elsewhere he will be having to split hist time between three locations as opposed to two.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 243
  • Posts: 14453
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 7th, 2018 at 3:16:47 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I love living here but I would gladly sell my house for a million and move somewhere else.




For a million I would retire in a Central America expat community. My town is showing the first signs of hipsters moving in. I keep wondering that if it becomes a hipster center do I stay and enjoy living in such a place or sell out for the cash. Hmm, that could be a thread.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 251
  • Posts: 17114
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 7th, 2018 at 3:19:44 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Maybe because Bezos already owns both a house and a major newspaper there. If it is elsewhere he will be having to split hist time between three locations as opposed to two.



Bezos doesn't strike me as a 9-5 office guy. Any idea how often he actually shows up at the Post or Amazon?
I remember reading he doesn't like afternoon meetings and from this looks I'm guessing he spends hours each day in the gym. Unlike guys like Cuban and Musk, he doesn't seem work driven.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 169
  • Posts: 22623
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
November 7th, 2018 at 6:11:33 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

For a million I would retire in a Central America expat community. My town is showing the first signs of hipsters moving in. I keep wondering that if it becomes a hipster center do I stay and enjoy living in such a place or sell out for the cash. Hmm, that could be a thread.

Can somome explain why everyone seems to dislike hipsters so much?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 251
  • Posts: 17114
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 7th, 2018 at 7:40:48 PM permalink
I kinda miss the Brooklyn hipsters that were invading my neighborhood when I moved. In small doses, they can be fun.
Think of a Golden Retriever puppy. Cute and fun but rambunctious and having no idea what damage their fun may be causing. They do enjoy spending money.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 243
  • Posts: 14453
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 8th, 2018 at 2:23:51 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Can somome explain why everyone seems to dislike hipsters so much?



I hope they move in here. If they have the effect they did across town my property values go way up. I own.

OTOH, I have met people had to move out of a part of town because the hipsters caused rents to rise so much.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 963
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
November 17th, 2018 at 5:13:02 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I hope they move in here. If they have the effect they did across town my property values go way up. I own.

OTOH, I have met people had to move out of a part of town because the hipsters caused rents to rise so much.



Be careful what you wish for. This is exactly what happened to Reno. Tesla has chosen to manufacture all their batteries for their cars, Samsung, Apple, Google and other tech companies has followed to build one if not the largest industrial center in the US. Major shortage in housing, as Reno is maxed out because of the mountains. Homes closing in one day, with 10 offers or more. My friend just sold his house for $750k, and it sold in two hours, had five cash offers. At one point, there were less than 1% apartments available. Traffic is a mess, takes me 20 minutes to get home and I only live 2.1 miles away! I can commute faster on my bicycle.

The casinos love it, so many NEW & STUPID gamblers
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 243
  • Posts: 14453
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 18th, 2018 at 5:13:04 AM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Be careful what you wish for. This is exactly what happened to Reno. Tesla has chosen to manufacture all their batteries for their cars, Samsung, Apple, Google and other tech companies has followed to build one if not the largest industrial center in the US. Major shortage in housing, as Reno is maxed out because of the mountains. Homes closing in one day, with 10 offers or more. My friend just sold his house for $750k, and it sold in two hours, had five cash offers. At one point, there were less than 1% apartments available. Traffic is a mess, takes me 20 minutes to get home and I only live 2.1 miles away! I can commute faster on my bicycle.

The casinos love it, so many NEW & STUPID gamblers



Since I already have the houses it would be great. That kind of offer on even one would be my retirement.

I wonder if the poker games in Reno are still as soft as I heard they were?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
November 18th, 2018 at 6:18:07 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Since I already have the houses it would be great. That kind of offer on even one would be my retirement.

I wonder if the poker games in Reno are still as soft as I heard they were?



That's what I was thinking. Sell my 120k house for 900k, I could move to butler and retire.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 243
  • Posts: 14453
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 18th, 2018 at 7:01:25 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

That's what I was thinking. Sell my 120k house for 900k, I could move to butler and retire.



Or somewhere warmer.

But I do see some of these smaller and walkable areas going hipster. So much nicer than being in a land of little boxes where you have to drive for every last and little thing.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
November 18th, 2018 at 8:58:01 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

A friend at Amazon (with no insider knowledge whatsoever) thinks that Crystal City will be for higher ups (aka lobbying). I tend to agree, Boeing does the same thing. All of the engineers will be elsewhere. But that was predicated on the other HQ2 being in a low cost center in Texas.

I have an apartment within walking distance of the blue metro line in Alexandria (for those that dont know the area, I'm 10-15m by metro from Crystal City). My current rent is $1500 all in plus internet, this is a screaming deal. I'm afraid of what happens if they hire a thousand developers and engineers for the supposed Crystal City campus.



That is a screaming deal. My apartment from 2002-2004 was $1600/mo, 2 blocks from Eisenhower (blue line) in Alexandria. I did have a 2br w/1 car garage, and maybe yours is a 1br. But my place now goes for about $2500 with garage, might be more.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 251
  • Posts: 17114
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 18th, 2018 at 9:14:28 AM permalink
In the early 90s, my friends were living in Adams Morgan. A friend of theirs had purchased a small multiunit building hoping the neighborhood would improve. Instead, tensions between the incoming Latinos and the established black community lead to tensions and culminated in a multiday riot. The landlord abandoned the building and my friends got it for a song. They still live there as the neighborhood improved and each unit is worth multiple times what the building sold for.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
  • Threads: 210
  • Posts: 11062
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 19th, 2018 at 3:22:27 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

there was significant online betting on the location of Amazon's new HQ2 location.

now it's been leaked ...


Seems incredible that anyone would have offered the bet in the first place considering the ease in which inside info could have been exploited.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
November 19th, 2018 at 3:24:00 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Seems incredible that anyone would have offered the bet in the first place considering the ease in which inside info could have been exploited.



Isnt that the case with many of the non sports prop bets
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 243
  • Posts: 14453
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 19th, 2018 at 5:14:18 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Seems incredible that anyone would have offered the bet in the first place considering the ease in which inside info could have been exploited.



I remember seeing Five Dimes offering action on professional wrestling so my guess is books are not all that worried.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 169
  • Posts: 22623
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
November 19th, 2018 at 5:20:04 AM permalink
I dont know how much you can bet on this particular prop but it's usually not much, they seem to get enough action on all sides.

There are some SB prop bets people get information on.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 963
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
November 19th, 2018 at 6:10:16 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Since I already have the houses it would be great. That kind of offer on even one would be my retirement.

I wonder if the poker games in Reno are still as soft as I heard they were?



Retirement, Nevada has no income tax. As far as the poker, depends on what you play, but yeah, lot of newbies in town, tossing away their money at all of the games. The Atlantis pays $4 per hour for comps. I haven't played much live poker anymore since I have discovered UTH. It's the perfect game for me. No rake, No tipping the dealer after winning, and I love to play heads up poker anyways.
  • Jump to: