How Will Amazon HQ2 Betting be Resolved?
now it's been leaked that it will most probably be split between Crystal City in Arlington Va and Long Island City in Queens, NY
so my question is if this happens as expected how will the books resolve this bet?
my answer: I don't know
my best guess is that it will be resolved in the same way as a place bet in horse racing which is this:
PROFIT SPLIT (PLACE POOL) - after the takeout or often called House Edge
Profit is net pool less gross amount bet on all place finishers. Finishers split profit
1/2 and 1/2 (place profit), then divide by gross amount bet on each place finisher for two unique prices
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/technology/amazon-second-headquarters-split.html
Northern Virginia, Virginia -290
Boston, Massachusetts +600
Washington, D.C. +1000
Atlanta, Georgia +1000
Toronto, Ontario +1200
Austin, Texas +1400
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania +2000
Montgomery County, Maryland +2500
Raleigh, North Carolina +3000
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania +4000
Chicago, Illinois +5000
Nashville, Tennessee +6000
New York City, New York +6000
Dallas, Texas +6000
Denver, Colorado +6000
Indianapolis, Indiana +6000
Columbus, Ohio +7000
Newark, New Jersey +7000
Los Angeles, California +8000
Miami, Florida +8500
I am just sad Pittsburgh seems to be out of the running. The mayor made some comments a few weeks ago that it appeared we were not in it for quite some time. I was hoping that my 100k house would skyrocket to 1m since I am in one of the top 3 neighborhoods near the city. Gotta come up with a new way to get rich now.
Quote: GWAEhmm that is interesting.
I am just sad Pittsburgh seems to be out of the running. The mayor made some comments a few weeks ago that it appeared we were not in it for quite some time. I was hoping that my 100k house would skyrocket to 1m since I am in one of the top 3 neighborhoods near the city. Gotta come up with a new way to get rich now.
I gave it 1/10 PIT got it. The airport location would have boomed my neighborhood but no thanks due to the traffic.
Quote: AZDuffmanI gave it 1/10 PIT got it. The airport location would have boomed my neighborhood but no thanks due to the traffic.
I love living here but I would gladly sell my house for a million and move somewhere else.
Quote: gordonm888Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?
Amazon is looking at the average education level and income level among other things and in this area it is quite high.
(also see Rule 10 in http://www.tattersallscommittee.co.uk/userfiles/file/Tattersalls%20Committee%20Rules%20on%20Betting%20FINAL.pdf )
Similar logic applies if you bet the "unnamed favourite" to win and there's a joint or co fav, your bet is split across all the joint or co favs and settled accordingly (I suspect there's a special rule if joint favourites are 10/11 as you can't win). On the tote it goes onto the lower racecard number. (Please don't ask what happens if the favourite is a non-runner! This why bookies have a poster of small print with all their rules on.)
I'm guessing something similar happens in the US.
Quote: gordonm888Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?
I think it is clear that amazon is going to milk anything they can get. I am sure they have some sort of agenda in this entire thing. I really hope governments release their proposal to amazon. I wonder if this falls in the right to know act, or only the 2 cities that get the deal.
Quote: gordonm888Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?
A friend at Amazon (with no insider knowledge whatsoever) thinks that Crystal City will be for higher ups (aka lobbying). I tend to agree, Boeing does the same thing. All of the engineers will be elsewhere. But that was predicated on the other HQ2 being in a low cost center in Texas.
I have an apartment within walking distance of the blue metro line in Alexandria (for those that dont know the area, I'm 10-15m by metro from Crystal City). My current rent is $1500 all in plus internet, this is a screaming deal. I'm afraid of what happens if they hire a thousand developers and engineers for the supposed Crystal City campus.
Despite its name, Long Island City is simply a neighborhood in Queens. Formerly mostly industrial, recent developments have been residential skyscrapers with amazing views of Manhattan.
Quote: gordonm888Crystal City and the surrounding Arlington Va area definitely do not need an increase in real estate prices. Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?
DC area is also a huge internet hub, and Amazon already has a huge datacenter in the area.
https://gizmodo.com/5913934/the-bullseye-of-americas-internet
Quote: gordonm888Proximity to the federal gov't is the only reason anyone would live there, so why would Amazon move their HQ there? For lobbying?
Maybe because Bezos already owns both a house and a major newspaper there. If it is elsewhere he will be having to split hist time between three locations as opposed to two.
Quote: GWAEI love living here but I would gladly sell my house for a million and move somewhere else.
For a million I would retire in a Central America expat community. My town is showing the first signs of hipsters moving in. I keep wondering that if it becomes a hipster center do I stay and enjoy living in such a place or sell out for the cash. Hmm, that could be a thread.
Quote: DRichMaybe because Bezos already owns both a house and a major newspaper there. If it is elsewhere he will be having to split hist time between three locations as opposed to two.
Bezos doesn't strike me as a 9-5 office guy. Any idea how often he actually shows up at the Post or Amazon?
I remember reading he doesn't like afternoon meetings and from this looks I'm guessing he spends hours each day in the gym. Unlike guys like Cuban and Musk, he doesn't seem work driven.
Can somome explain why everyone seems to dislike hipsters so much?Quote: AZDuffmanFor a million I would retire in a Central America expat community. My town is showing the first signs of hipsters moving in. I keep wondering that if it becomes a hipster center do I stay and enjoy living in such a place or sell out for the cash. Hmm, that could be a thread.
Think of a Golden Retriever puppy. Cute and fun but rambunctious and having no idea what damage their fun may be causing. They do enjoy spending money.
Quote: AxelWolfCan somome explain why everyone seems to dislike hipsters so much?
I hope they move in here. If they have the effect they did across town my property values go way up. I own.
OTOH, I have met people had to move out of a part of town because the hipsters caused rents to rise so much.
Quote: AZDuffmanI hope they move in here. If they have the effect they did across town my property values go way up. I own.
OTOH, I have met people had to move out of a part of town because the hipsters caused rents to rise so much.
Be careful what you wish for. This is exactly what happened to Reno. Tesla has chosen to manufacture all their batteries for their cars, Samsung, Apple, Google and other tech companies has followed to build one if not the largest industrial center in the US. Major shortage in housing, as Reno is maxed out because of the mountains. Homes closing in one day, with 10 offers or more. My friend just sold his house for $750k, and it sold in two hours, had five cash offers. At one point, there were less than 1% apartments available. Traffic is a mess, takes me 20 minutes to get home and I only live 2.1 miles away! I can commute faster on my bicycle.
The casinos love it, so many NEW & STUPID gamblers
Quote: VegasriderBe careful what you wish for. This is exactly what happened to Reno. Tesla has chosen to manufacture all their batteries for their cars, Samsung, Apple, Google and other tech companies has followed to build one if not the largest industrial center in the US. Major shortage in housing, as Reno is maxed out because of the mountains. Homes closing in one day, with 10 offers or more. My friend just sold his house for $750k, and it sold in two hours, had five cash offers. At one point, there were less than 1% apartments available. Traffic is a mess, takes me 20 minutes to get home and I only live 2.1 miles away! I can commute faster on my bicycle.
The casinos love it, so many NEW & STUPID gamblers
Since I already have the houses it would be great. That kind of offer on even one would be my retirement.
I wonder if the poker games in Reno are still as soft as I heard they were?
Quote: AZDuffmanSince I already have the houses it would be great. That kind of offer on even one would be my retirement.
I wonder if the poker games in Reno are still as soft as I heard they were?
That's what I was thinking. Sell my 120k house for 900k, I could move to butler and retire.
Quote: GWAEThat's what I was thinking. Sell my 120k house for 900k, I could move to butler and retire.
Or somewhere warmer.
But I do see some of these smaller and walkable areas going hipster. So much nicer than being in a land of little boxes where you have to drive for every last and little thing.
Quote: ahiromuA friend at Amazon (with no insider knowledge whatsoever) thinks that Crystal City will be for higher ups (aka lobbying). I tend to agree, Boeing does the same thing. All of the engineers will be elsewhere. But that was predicated on the other HQ2 being in a low cost center in Texas.
I have an apartment within walking distance of the blue metro line in Alexandria (for those that dont know the area, I'm 10-15m by metro from Crystal City). My current rent is $1500 all in plus internet, this is a screaming deal. I'm afraid of what happens if they hire a thousand developers and engineers for the supposed Crystal City campus.
That is a screaming deal. My apartment from 2002-2004 was $1600/mo, 2 blocks from Eisenhower (blue line) in Alexandria. I did have a 2br w/1 car garage, and maybe yours is a 1br. But my place now goes for about $2500 with garage, might be more.
Quote: lilredroosterthere was significant online betting on the location of Amazon's new HQ2 location.
now it's been leaked ...
Seems incredible that anyone would have offered the bet in the first place considering the ease in which inside info could have been exploited.
Quote: DJTeddyBearSeems incredible that anyone would have offered the bet in the first place considering the ease in which inside info could have been exploited.
Isnt that the case with many of the non sports prop bets
Quote: DJTeddyBearSeems incredible that anyone would have offered the bet in the first place considering the ease in which inside info could have been exploited.
I remember seeing Five Dimes offering action on professional wrestling so my guess is books are not all that worried.
There are some SB prop bets people get information on.
Quote: AZDuffmanSince I already have the houses it would be great. That kind of offer on even one would be my retirement.
I wonder if the poker games in Reno are still as soft as I heard they were?
Retirement, Nevada has no income tax. As far as the poker, depends on what you play, but yeah, lot of newbies in town, tossing away their money at all of the games. The Atlantis pays $4 per hour for comps. I haven't played much live poker anymore since I have discovered UTH. It's the perfect game for me. No rake, No tipping the dealer after winning, and I love to play heads up poker anyways.
