MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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May 31st, 2016 at 11:15:33 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Pai gow tiles is 100000 percent beatable given the right circumstance

Without intending to divert into what those circumstances are, what games are actually unbeatable?

Most slots are -- e.g., IGT's Double Diamond running on an S+ with no progressive -- but what about table games? Blackjack? Nope. 3CP? Nope. Roulette? Nope. Craps? Well, maybe that depends on whether you believe the DI folks...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MrGoldenSun
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May 31st, 2016 at 12:17:32 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Without intending to divert into what those circumstances are, what games are actually unbeatable?

Most slots are -- e.g., IGT's Double Diamond running on an S+ with no progressive -- but what about table games? Blackjack? Nope. 3CP? Nope. Roulette? Nope. Craps? Well, maybe that depends on whether you believe the DI folks...



Seemse essentially any card game or player-banked game could be beatable. I have read a couple of times about misprinted felt layouts or dealers who misinterpret it. So if there are consistent payout errors, you could beat any game, I guess.

Barring payout errors, I think craps is "practically unbeatable" because I don't believe anyone is a good enough dice controller. Maybe there are other techniques I don't know about. I'm sure there are.
TwoFeathersATL
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May 31st, 2016 at 12:44:54 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Without intending to divert into what those circumstances are, what games are actually unbeatable?

Most slots are -- e.g., IGT's Double Diamond running on an S+ with no progressive -- but what about table games? Blackjack? Nope. 3CP? Nope. Roulette? Nope. Craps? Well, maybe that depends on whether you believe the DI folks...

Wait a minute, Roulette is beatable? Can you pls send me some info via PM about this. I 'd like the game to still be there the next time I walk in ;-)

<edit> Or were you just taking EvenBob's word for it ;-)

I'd love to cut my losses in half, I might even walk away satisfied. I might not....
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
MrGoldenSun
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:00:48 PM permalink
I was assuming he meant via wheel clocking / dealer tracking stuff. Like predicting where the ball will land.
TigerWu
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:04:43 PM permalink
Maybe I just don't know what's being talked about by the world "unbeatable," because I don't see how 3CP, Roulette, and Pai Gow Tiles are going to be consistently beatable over the course of one's gambling career in a legitimately run casino... :/

What am I missing here, or not understanding?
DeMango
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:10:51 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

What am I missing here, or not understanding?



You expect secrets to be revealed? Really?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:15:18 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Wait a minute, Roulette is beatable? Can you pls send me some info via PM about this. I 'd like the game to still be there the next time I walk in ;-)

<edit> Or were you just taking EvenBob's word for it ;-)

I don't know what EvenBob does, but there are at least two ways roulette can be beaten that aren't PM worthy: some wheels are biased, and some people can do in their heads what Doyne Farmer and his team did with the world's first wearable computer. Especially with a sloppily consistent croupier.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
DiscreteMaths2
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:17:17 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Maybe I just don't know what's being talked about by the world "unbeatable," because I don't see how 3CP, Roulette, and Pai Gow Tiles are going to be consistently beatable over the course of one's gambling career in a legitimately run casino... :/

What am I missing here, or not understanding?



Any table game run by a human is beatable. Dealers don't always follow procedure (sometimes even worse casino management is incompetent people and even their intended procedure is flawed) and any time they slip up you can take advantage of it.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
TigerWu
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:26:03 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

You expect secrets to be revealed? Really?



No. Let me rephrase my question.

If I walk into a legitimately run major casino, let's say in Vegas, and sit down at a roulette wheel that is machined and running perfectly, run by a croupier who flawlessly operates the wheel and never makes a mistake when handling the bets, is roulette beatable?

If I go into that same casino and play Three Card Poker, with a dealer who perfectly and flawlessly shuffles, deals, and never makes a mistake with the bets, is it beatable?

Same with Pai Gow Tiles, etc.

To me, for a game to be considered "beatable," you should be able to consistently win at it under perfect conditions.
TigerWu
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:28:52 PM permalink
Quote: DiscreteMaths2

Any table game run by a human is beatable. Dealers don't always follow procedure (sometimes even worse casino management is incompetent people and even their intended procedure is flawed) and any time they slip up you can take advantage of it.



Okay, that makes sense. I was just thinking in strictly mathematical terms about beatability, not taking into account human error.
DiscreteMaths2
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:30:17 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu



To me, for a game to be considered "beatable," you should be able to consistently win at it under perfect conditions.



Under those conditions, absolutely no house vs player game is beatable.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
MathExtremist
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:44:47 PM permalink
Quote: DiscreteMaths2

Under those conditions, absolutely no house vs player game is beatable.

There are still games that are beatable when you eliminate dealer sloppiness, but the list is a lot shorter. But it depends on what you mean by "consistently." No game has a player edge on every hand...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
teddys
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:49:50 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Pai gow tiles is 100000 percent beatable given the right circumstance

Yes! We are back to 100,000 percents!!

We don't need no stinking 100 percent.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
DiscreteMaths2
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:52:43 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

There are still games that are beatable when you eliminate dealer sloppiness, but the list is a lot shorter. But it depends on what you mean by "consistently." No game has a player edge on every hand...



The stipulation was perfect conditions. I could open a casino tomorrow with every house vs. player table and slot game available and guaranteed -EV on every game.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
RS
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May 31st, 2016 at 1:56:34 PM permalink
Quote: DiscreteMaths2

The stipulation was perfect conditions. I could open a casino tomorrow with every house vs. player table and slot game available and guaranteed -EV on every game.



Perfect conditions (for the casino) isn't always the case. I don't need to be able to beat every X game.....only need 1 at a time available.
DiscreteMaths2
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May 31st, 2016 at 2:00:02 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Perfect conditions (for the casino) isn't always the case. I don't need to be able to beat every X game.....only need 1 at a time available.



I am talking about a proposed theoretical casino with perfect conditions for the house. In real life I have never seen or heard of an actual casino operating this way 100% of the time but there is nothing stopping someone from doing that if they wanted to.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
MathExtremist
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May 31st, 2016 at 5:42:07 PM permalink
Quote: DiscreteMaths2

The stipulation was perfect conditions. I could open a casino tomorrow with every house vs. player table and slot game available and guaranteed -EV on every game.

You need to define "perfect conditions" first. Do you have Ultimate X Video Poker on your floor? How about blackjack, Ultimate Texas Hold'em, or the baccarat Dragon 7 bet? If so, what are your "perfect conditions" for those games that change them from being beatable to not?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
DiscreteMaths2
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May 31st, 2016 at 6:04:41 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

You need to define "perfect conditions" first. Do you have Ultimate X Video Poker on your floor? How about blackjack, Ultimate Texas Hold'em, or the baccarat Dragon 7 bet? If so, what are your "perfect conditions" for those games that change them from being beatable to not?



I don't consider an Ultimate X machine that can leave behind multipliers for another to be a purely house vs. player game, left behind multipliers are PvP. (same goes for anything with a progressive). Blackjack you have so many options. UTH / Baccarat I don't know enough about to know all the plays but generally speaking for physical card games: don't just assume a deck is shuffled, make sure the cards are fair (not marked, bent, or mis printed), if your game has hidden info as a mechanic make sure there is no leak.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
Wizardofnothing
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May 31st, 2016 at 6:20:06 PM permalink
Pai gow tiles can be straight up beatable with the best dealers and the perfect wash and the cleanest tiles - I'll leave it at that
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
MrGoldenSun
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June 1st, 2016 at 7:35:14 AM permalink
Quote: DiscreteMaths2

I am talking about a proposed theoretical casino with perfect conditions for the house. In real life I have never seen or heard of an actual casino operating this way 100% of the time but there is nothing stopping someone from doing that if they wanted to.



I think the point is that you really CAN'T do that, even if you want to. There will always be careless dealers. Some advantage plays are out of the casino's hands even though they don't cost the casino, e.g., vulturing multipliers on Ultimate X, banking casino games with an edge against bad players, playing poker well, etc. I'm not sure if that falls under "perfect conditions" or not.

I think if you assume perfect dealers and procedures, no +EV video poker, you make all communication between players at table games illegal, and you assume the casino doesn't give sufficient cashback on any slot to make it +EV, I can think of possible edges on the following games:
-Poker
-Blackjack and its variants
-Sports and horse betting
-Slots
-Pai gow poker
-Pai gow tiles
TigerWu
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June 1st, 2016 at 8:07:27 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Pai gow tiles can be straight up beatable with the best dealers and the perfect wash and the cleanest tiles - I'll leave it at that



I know you are exponentially more experienced at gaming than I am, but at the same time I am highly skeptical of this claim...

If someone such as myself would want to do further research into how Pai Gow Tiles is a beatable game under perfect casino conditions, where would I start?
MrGoldenSun
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June 1st, 2016 at 8:10:38 AM permalink
One thing I know about tiles (and pai gow poker) is that you have the option to bank against other players. I would think that is something to look into.
DiscreteMaths2
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June 1st, 2016 at 9:52:36 AM permalink
Quote: MrGoldenSun

I think the point is that you really CAN'T do that, even if you want to. There will always be careless dealers. Some advantage plays are out of the casino's hands even though they don't cost the casino, e.g., vulturing multipliers on Ultimate X, banking casino games with an edge against bad players, playing poker well, etc. I'm not sure if that falls under "perfect conditions" or not.

I think if you assume perfect dealers and procedures, no +EV video poker, you make all communication between players at table games illegal, and you assume the casino doesn't give sufficient cashback on any slot to make it +EV, I can think of possible edges on the following games:
-Poker
-Blackjack and its variants
-Sports and horse betting
-Slots
-Pai gow poker
-Pai gow tiles



Well any game where there is a Player vs. Player element you as a player can gain an edge, but you are taking from your fellow players not the house. (Ultimate X, Progressive Slots, Poker, Parimutuel betting, etc). Also you run into the issue of when is a game still the game, like I am still counting it if a Casino had Blackjack with every *bad* rule variation, close to zero deck penetration, and had an automated or semi automated dealer. (if you don't count that, its reasonable, my larger point is the casinos are in control and they aren't forced to run games with bad rules for them).
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
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