The top face will be more probable

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: ksdjdj

-snip-
Important: Based on the assumption that all other numbers (besides the "top face" before the roll) would have an "equal chance of coming up after the roll" (I am guessing it would be a more complex formula, IRL, but I don't know what that formula would be).
link to original post

My reading of the article is that the top face (in the initial position) is most probable and that the bottom face is less probable. The other four faces would have an unchanged probability, i.e., 1/6.
link to original post

That doesn’t make physical sense to me. If the faces are 1 on top, 2 in back, 6 on bottom and 5 in front. And the model assume backspin rotation then 1 is most probable followed by 2, 6 then 5. In no model should 6 (the bottom face) be less probable than 5 (the front face).

Quote: unJon

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: ksdjdj

-snip-
Important: Based on the assumption that all other numbers (besides the "top face" before the roll) would have an "equal chance of coming up after the roll" (I am guessing it would be a more complex formula, IRL, but I don't know what that formula would be).
link to original post

My reading of the article is that the top face (in the initial position) is most probable and that the bottom face is less probable. The other four faces would have an unchanged probability, i.e., 1/6.
link to original post

That doesn’t make physical sense to me. If the faces are 1 on top, 2 in back, 6 on bottom and 5 in front. And the model assume backspin rotation then 1 is most probable followed by 2, 6 then 5. In no model should 6 (the bottom face) be less probable than 5 (the front face).
link to original post

This is well above my ability/skill, so I will just wait for any possible consensus, between the other "math / smart people on this site" (eg: unJon, gordonm888, and "all the rest").

Note : IMO, there seems to be many smart people on this forum, so it was easier to write "all the rest".

These ideas about the long-term probabilities of predominance of non-bottom
facial probabilities within a highly theoretical paradigm are not practicable.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: onebok

I totally agree. I would view that as most likely a cause for those monster rolls that make the DI-Wannabee
think they've finally reached DI-nirvana.
link to original post

Card counters and those who play abandoned multipliers need luck too.
link to original post

Sort of? On any given BJ hand at a positive count or use of a found multiplier there is no guarantee of a win. Just means that the EV is positive. Yesterday I went to casino and found literally dozens of left behind multipliers and…. lost a few $. The time before I found far fewer…. but one was the four aces with a kicker thing that paid me 4000 dimes. I ran well on the few others and ended up $430 ish.

My point is I need ‘luck’ to finish ahead on any given day, but need no ‘luck’ to be ahead over time. The same with my on line sports betting. I lost a few $$ yesterday. I’m playing now with greater variance but also greater +EV. I have had way more losing days recently, but my winning days are WAY higher than my losing days.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: onebok

I totally agree. I would view that as most likely a cause for those monster rolls that make the DI-Wannabee
think they've finally reached DI-nirvana.
link to original post

Card counters and those who play abandoned multipliers need luck too.
link to original post

Sort of? On any given BJ hand at a positive count or use of a found multiplier there is no guarantee of a win. Just means that the EV is positive. Yesterday I went to casino and found literally dozens of left behind multipliers and…. lost a few $. The time before I found far fewer…. but one was the four aces with a kicker thing that paid me 4000 dimes. I ran well on the few others and ended up $430 ish.

My point is I need ‘luck’ to finish ahead on any given day, but need no ‘luck’ to be ahead over time. The same with my on line sports betting. I lost a few $$ yesterday. I’m playing now with greater variance but also greater +EV. I have had way more losing days recently, but my winning days are WAY higher than my losing days.
link to original post

What percentage of the time are you playing with +EV?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: onebok

I totally agree. I would view that as most likely a cause for those monster rolls that make the DI-Wannabee
think they've finally reached DI-nirvana.
link to original post

Card counters and those who play abandoned multipliers need luck too.
link to original post

Sort of? On any given BJ hand at a positive count or use of a found multiplier there is no guarantee of a win. Just means that the EV is positive. Yesterday I went to casino and found literally dozens of left behind multipliers and…. lost a few $. The time before I found far fewer…. but one was the four aces with a kicker thing that paid me 4000 dimes. I ran well on the few others and ended up $430 ish.

My point is I need ‘luck’ to finish ahead on any given day, but need no ‘luck’ to be ahead over time. The same with my on line sports betting. I lost a few $$ yesterday. I’m playing now with greater variance but also greater +EV. I have had way more losing days recently, but my winning days are WAY higher than my losing days.
link to original post

What percentage of the time are you playing with +EV?
link to original post

On the UltimateX machine close to 100%. But I only play it for maybe $100-$200 a day, depending on what multipliers are left. I’m no expert, but I think I may be getting around $30-$50 a day in EV. I’m way ahead of that because I’ve hit a Royal and that 4 aces in my short time doing this. That part is, yes, luck!

I do I also play a -EV game, Pai Gow, with no expectation of winning. It’s a social thing I do with some friends. With the occasional free bet, and comps, and dealer errors, I think I get it close to a break even game.

As far as the sports betting, it’s hard to say. I think my +EV runs between $50 and $100 per day, but I certainly also make some small -EV bets for fun. And (don’t tell the Wizard!) I hedge many of the grossly positive EV bets with clearly negative EV bets to lock in a win. I could, if I really wanted to, not make a single bet without having an edge.

Quote: SOOPOO

As far as the sports betting______________ I could, if I really wanted to, not make a single bet without having an edge.

link to original post

I'm curious about that statement

I bet sports too___________I often think I have an edge - but there's no way I can be sure_____________it's not something that can be analyzed with certainty such as card counting at blackjack - conditions and things are always changing in sports betting

how do you 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬 that you have an edge

I'm not trying to be critical of your post___________you very well may know some things that I don't______________I'm just curious___________thanks



.

One more question. What percentage of your time in a casino is spent looking for +EV plays on the MACHINE GAMES you like to play?

For example do you spend ten minutes to find an abandoned multiplier for one play?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: onebok

I totally agree. I would view that as most likely a cause for those monster rolls that make the DI-Wannabee
think they've finally reached DI-nirvana.
link to original post

Card counters and those who play abandoned multipliers need luck too.
link to original post

Sort of? On any given BJ hand at a positive count or use of a found multiplier there is no guarantee of a win. Just means that the EV is positive. Yesterday I went to casino and found literally dozens of left behind multipliers and…. lost a few $. The time before I found far fewer…. but one was the four aces with a kicker thing that paid me 4000 dimes. I ran well on the few others and ended up $430 ish.

My point is I need ‘luck’ to finish ahead on any given day, but need no ‘luck’ to be ahead over time. The same with my on line sports betting. I lost a few $$ yesterday. I’m playing now with greater variance but also greater +EV. I have had way more losing days recently, but my winning days are WAY higher than my losing days.
link to original post

What percentage of the time are you playing with +EV?
link to original post

Wrong question.

Quote: AlanMendelson

One more question. What percentage of your time in a casino is spent looking for +EV plays on the MACHINE GAMES you like to play?

For example do you spend ten minutes to find an abandoned multiplier for one play?
link to original post

I know you didn't ask me, but my doctor says I'm supposed to walk around for at least half an hour a day anyway.
I prefer venues other than doing laps at the mall.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AlanMendelson

One more question. What percentage of your time in a casino is spent looking for +EV plays on the MACHINE GAMES you like to play?

For example do you spend ten minutes to find an abandoned multiplier for one play?
link to original post

I know you didn't ask me, but my doctor says I'm supposed to walk around for at least half an hour a day anyway.
I prefer venues other than doing laps at the mall.
link to original post

I walk around casinos too. But I do it at 4am when I can have an unobstructed walk around the perimeter. There is actually a small walking club that I see at Red Rock around 6am.

But they're not stopping to look for abandoned multipliers.

If you're serious about walking you shouldn't be looking for AP opportunities.

By the way, Red Rock is a big circular casino with an exterior walkway ring with the restrooms and restaurants. It's a good walk in the early morning. Your only obstruction will be the floor polishers.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AlanMendelson

One more question. What percentage of your time in a casino is spent looking for +EV plays on the MACHINE GAMES you like to play?

For example do you spend ten minutes to find an abandoned multiplier for one play?
link to original post

I know you didn't ask me, but my doctor says I'm supposed to walk around for at least half an hour a day anyway.
I prefer venues other than doing laps at the mall.
link to original post

I walk around casinos too. But I do it at 4am when I can have an unobstructed walk around the perimeter. There is actually a small walking club that I see at Red Rock around 6am.

But they're not stopping to look for abandoned multipliers.

If you're serious about walking you shouldn't be looking for AP opportunities.

By the way, Red Rock is a big circular casino with an exterior walkway ring with the restrooms and restaurants. It's a good walk in the early morning. Your only obstruction will be the floor polishers.
link to original post

I do appreciate the convenient chairs any time I feel a need to take a short rest. Baby steps on my road to better health.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AlanMendelson

One more question. What percentage of your time in a casino is spent looking for +EV plays on the MACHINE GAMES you like to play?

For example do you spend ten minutes to find an abandoned multiplier for one play?
link to original post

I know you didn't ask me, but my doctor says I'm supposed to walk around for at least half an hour a day anyway.
I prefer venues other than doing laps at the mall.
link to original post

I walk around casinos too. But I do it at 4am when I can have an unobstructed walk around the perimeter. There is actually a small walking club that I see at Red Rock around 6am.

But they're not stopping to look for abandoned multipliers.

If you're serious about walking you shouldn't be looking for AP opportunities.

By the way, Red Rock is a big circular casino with an exterior walkway ring with the restrooms and restaurants. It's a good walk in the early morning. Your only obstruction will be the floor polishers.
link to original post

I do appreciate the convenient chairs any time I feel a need to take a short rest. Baby steps on my road to better health.
link to original post

The free beers add a dimension most malls can't match, especially at 8AM.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

As far as the sports betting______________ I could, if I really wanted to, not make a single bet without having an edge.

link to original post

I'm curious about that statement

I bet sports too___________I often think I have an edge - but there's no way I can be sure_____________it's not something that can be analyzed with certainty such as card counting at blackjack - conditions and things are always changing in sports betting

how do you 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬 that you have an edge

I'm not trying to be critical of your post___________you very well may know some things that I don't______________I'm just curious___________thanks



.
link to original post

He made a thread about it. It’s promo and bonus use that gets him +EV. He admits he doesn’t think he has an edge handicapping.

I've taken the question on the coin toss to this thread.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

As far as the sports betting______________ I could, if I really wanted to, not make a single bet without having an edge.

link to original post

I'm curious about that statement

I bet sports too___________I often think I have an edge - but there's no way I can be sure_____________it's not something that can be analyzed with certainty such as card counting at blackjack - conditions and things are always changing in sports betting

how do you 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬 that you have an edge

I'm not trying to be critical of your post___________you very well may know some things that I don't______________I'm just curious___________thanks



.
link to original post

Fair question. I’ll give a specific easy example. DraftKings allowed me to bet $50 to win $50 on Gonzaga to win its first round tourney game. If I wanted to, you could bet $2 to win $100 on their opponent at any other Sportsbook. So $52 wagered in total, win $48 no matter what. I didn’t bet the $2 so won $50.

Profit boost example. (I don’t do it this way because there are better ways but this is an easy example). I get profit boosts all the time. As high as 100%. So Mets/Yankees are both -110. I bet $220 to win $400 on the Mets using the profit boost. On a different site I bet $330 to win $300 on the Yankees. Mets win I win $70. Yanks win I win $80.

Odds surge example. You could bet $50 on Celtics to beat Nets in its series at +150. On all sites the Celtics were around -140, with the Nets, + 130. If you can’t figure out how to make $$ when one side is +150 and the other is +130 I can’t help you!

Now, to be fair, most of my bets are more complicated, like 3 team parlays, where I have figured out fair pay would be 7-1, but with the offers I’m getting 10-1, but you can either believe me that I know I have an edge, or not believe me.

Edit…. There are other more subtle advantages that some members have politely asked me not to post in the open forum.

I just wanted to alert readers of this thread that I found a beautiful and relevant 30-page article from Physics Reports on the physics/dynamics of coin tossing and that I posted a pdf download link in the thread that Wizard started. Here is a link to that WOV forum post:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/37121-probability-coin-lands-on-starting-side/#post848422