True test of your SRR

Finally some casinos have a true and open test of claims that anyone has a great SRR - the 7 to rolls ratio.

And they want you to take this test.

It's called the Small Tall All bets and if you really have a great SRR they'll pay you big bucks.

And here I thought we all had the same SRR.

I don't agree that this type of bet is the true test. You could hit the same number 10 times in a row before PSO and still not win the all tall small bet.

A better side bet would be based on how many rolls till a PSO.

Bet the Wizard could come up with a wicked new side bet :-)

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

I don't agree that this type of bet is the true test. You could hit the same number 10 times in a row before PSO and still not win the all tall small bet.

You're right.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Finally some casinos have a true and open test of claims that anyone has a great SRR - the 7 to rolls ratio.

And they want you to take this test.

It's called the Small Tall All bets and if you really have a great SRR they'll pay you big bucks.

If you're referring to the "All Small", "All Tall", and "All or nothing" bets, I've started to run into these more and more recently.

As a DI, or "supposed" DI, I can honestly say its a horrible bet for one very important reason. Unlike with your place bets on a craps table, the 7 on a come out roll will lose the prop bet. The idea of being able to roll 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 before a 7, I like. However, including the 7 out on a come out roll I do not like, as I feel like I'm betting very hard against myself in that scenario.

That being said, my first roll on this " new to me" layout, I rolled everything but the 9, before rolling the 7 on the comeout. I rolled the 7 on the comeout 6 times in a row, and was getting a few dirty looks from the players since their $3 and $5 bets were dropping like flies while I was rolling. After the comeout, I rolled the opposite side, missing only the 5. So in one instance I hit the all small, then the all tall, and in both scenarios missed the all tall by 1 before rolling a 7 during the come out again. Fastforward about 30 minutes later, before I even hit my point number, I had rolled the all or nothing bet (I don't bet anything but the line and place bets) and at the beginning of my come out roll, a guy had bought in for 10 dollars, put $5 on the all or nothing, $2 on the all small, $2 on the all tall, and $1 on the fire. I rolled approximately 18 times before the 7, hitting every number once (the bet includes the roll that establishes the point), and nailing the 6 about 5 times, if I remember correctly, the point was a 10 and it rolled hard on the comeout. That lucky SoB cleared I think just over $1000 on his bets.

As a "supposed" DI according to this forum, I personally like the bets for "Others". I don't like it for me since it goes against everything I'm trying to do. Like most DI's, I know my roll will end and that no roll could go on for eternity, so "attempting" to hit the harder numbers like the 2,3,11,12 really goes against ourselves on the table unless we are betting them, and most of us aren't. On top of that, when I'm on the come out roll (the most dangerous part of these prop bets IMO) I'm trying like hell to roll 2,3,7,11,12 so I'll get paid for it (I back my PL up by a $1 AC on CO's). The most common numbers I tend to roll on my CO is 3,6,7,8,11, with the 7 being the most common and consistent number I'll hit with the "7's" dice set.

All of that said, I like it for "them" because there's just a lot of camaraderie and eagerness towards it. Everyone is silently supporting you (more than previously without the layout) and it provides and otherwise pretty cool atmosphere. I just don't see any "legit" DI ever betting it since it completely works against us, not to mention what has to be one gigantic house edge.

Doesn't it all depend on your set as a DI? I use the cross 6s which is supposed to favor outside numbers and limit the 7.

Last Thursday at Bellagio I hit the Small once and hit the Tall once (separate hands).

In a previous visit to Bellagio I hit the ALL as well as various Small or Talls.

Perhaps you (as a DI) need to use a different set to minimize the 7s. I don't know what other "bonus" bet beats the percentage return that the ALL has (except for the Fire Bet). Give up those 7s on the come out if you call yourself a DI.

ATS has already disappeared from 2 Biloxi casinos, they lost too much is the word. Biloxi is also now Firebet free, good riddance to bad rubbish.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Doesn't it all depend on your set as a DI? I use the cross 6s which is supposed to favor outside numbers and limit the 7.

Last Thursday at Bellagio I hit the Small once and hit the Tall once (separate hands).

In a previous visit to Bellagio I hit the ALL as well as various Small or Talls.

Perhaps you (as a DI) need to use a different set to minimize the 7s. I don't know what other "bonus" bet beats the percentage return that the ALL has (except for the Fire Bet). Give up those 7s on the come out if you call yourself a DI.

As wonderful as the idea might be to hit the "all" bet, and believe me I've rolled it more than a few times, for me, I'm getting paid for those 7's on the come out roll, and I use a dice set specifically designed to encourage the 7. No DI in the history of the game (to my knowledge) could consistently throw the "all" bet to a degree greater than the payout, so why try? For me, I'm happy when I roll 20 times and get a dozen 6's and 8's to hit, while rolling 3 or 4 7's in a row on the come out. That's "success" to me and most DI's I've ran into. Attempting to roll the "all" when the 7 on a come out knocks it down is nothing more than a fools errand.

After reading discussion about the Small/Tall/All side bet in two other threads last month (1, 2), I decided to look into it.

The Small & Tall Bet pays 34 to 1 and has a house edge of 7.76%. The All Bet pays 174 to 1 and has a house edge of either 7.99% or 7.46%. It's considered a sucker bet, but the HE is lower than anything else in the middle of the table except the Field. (Fire Bet has a house edge of 20.72%-24.85%, depending on whether it pays on 3 or 4 points. Hard 4/10 - 11.1%. Hard 6/8 - 9.09%.) If wagering an equal amount across all three bets, you'd need to win an All Tall or All Small at least once out of every 11 attempts in order to break even. (34/3=11.33)

(If Wizard reads this, there are two errors/typos in the All bet description. "A win pays 175 to 1, or 175 for 1." should be "A win pays 174 to 1, or 175 for 1." Also, "The lower right cell shows a house edge of 7.99%." but actually, the lower right cell shows -0.074645.)

I decided to play this a few weeks ago at Excalibur. I threw out $3 "for ATS" and the dealer didn't know what I was wanting. Their understood initialism for the bet is SAT, but they refer to it as "future bet". The layout on the Excalibur tables has vertical rows for each bet and columns for each player, with Small on top, All in the middle and Tall on bottom.

Quote: BlueEagle

(If Wizard reads this, there are two errors/typos in the All bet description. "A win pays 175 to 1, or 175 for 1." should be "A win pays 174 to 1, or 175 for 1." Also, "The lower right cell shows a house edge of 7.99%." but actually, the lower right cell shows -0.074645.)

Thank you for that correction.

Regarding the OP, I think a hypothetical dice influencer would be better off betting the pass and come with full odds than go up against the high house edge of the small, tall, or all.

Maybe the hard way bets in the UK and Australia that pay liberal odds.

Quote: BlueEagle

(If Wizard reads this, there are two errors/typos in the All bet description. "A win pays 175 to 1, or 175 for 1." should be "A win pays 174 to 1, or 175 for 1." Also, "The lower right cell shows a house edge of 7.99%." but actually, the lower right cell shows -0.074645.)

these are the only 2 types of layouts i have seen in Nevada, i do not play every-where-the-sun-shines
FOR

TO


I have yet to win the ALL (and have a life-time-loss-with-the-SAT-bet)

but but that bet is not in SoCal and should be (Maybe Alan M can make the call)
no-time-to-lose
Mully

Bellagio has a different layout for the small all tall bets and the layout has boxes labeled SMALL ALL TALL in that order, left to right.

Bellagio calls them the "feature bets." I don't remember the name used at Red Rock.

At Bellagio I've heard some players call for the "feature bets" when they throw out their chips." I called them the "alls" when I threw out my chips, but I make up my own name for things.

On my last visit several players hit at least the small or tall. Sometimes, some one would hit a few numbers, make a point, then have a come-out 7 and the players there would reload on the STA bets and then one of the "feature bets" would be hit.

My point is simply this: if you think you have an ability to influence dice, then use that ability to avoid the 7. Rolling a seven on the come out only gets you even money on the passline. If you avoid the 7 a bet on the ATS can get you a big payday.

If you can't influence the dice then keep hoping for those 7s on the come out -- the odds favor them.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Bellagio has a different layout for the small all tall bets and the layout has boxes labeled SMALL ALL TALL in that order, left to right.

Bellagio calls them the "feature bets." I don't remember the name used at Red Rock.

At Bellagio I've heard some players call for the "feature bets" when they throw out their chips." I called them the "alls" when I threw out my chips, but I make up my own name for things.

On my last visit several players hit at least the small or tall. Sometimes, some one would hit a few numbers, make a point, then have a come-out 7 and the players there would reload on the STA bets and then one of the "feature bets" would be hit.

My point is simply this: if you think you have an ability to influence dice, then use that ability to avoid the 7. Rolling a seven on the come out only gets you even money on the passline. If you avoid the 7 a bet on the ATS can get you a big payday.

If you can't influence the dice then keep hoping for those 7s on the come out -- the odds favor them.

Some days I get the idea that either you're intentionally being dense, or dripping with sarcasm and/or "tongue in cheek" responses. Other times, I get the vibe that you truly have no reasonable clue what DI is about with comments like those. Sometimes I want to write a long novel about what DI truly is about and how we might set it up to "work" for us, and then other days I feel like everything I've written would fall on deaf ears.

Quote: Exoter175

Some days I get the idea that either you're intentionally being dense, or dripping with sarcasm and/or "tongue in cheek" responses. Other times, I get the vibe that you truly have no reasonable clue what DI is about with comments like those. Sometimes I want to write a long novel about what DI truly is about and how we might set it up to "work" for us, and then other days I feel like everything I've written would fall on deaf ears.

I was around with the DI crowd long before you heard the term.

I will say it again: if you have any ability to influence the dice you will be better off avoiding 7s then trying to hit them -- unless you are a don't bettor.

With a 7 on the come out you will only win even money and you will have to bet big to win a lot of money. But if you can use your DI ability to avoid the 7 you will win a lot more money faster on the STA bets with their multipliers.

And everyone on this site who follows the math will easily see that.

Why the heck would you bet $15 on the passline to win $15 with a come out 7 when with the same $15 on the STA bets you would win 5X35 + 5X35 + 5X175 without even the burden of hitting a repeater by avoiding the 7?

Quote: AlanMendelson

I was around with the DI crowd long before you heard the term.

I will say it again: if you have any ability to influence the dice you will be better off avoiding 7s then trying to hit them -- unless you are a don't bettor.

With a 7 on the come out you will only win even money and you will have to bet big to win a lot of money. But if you can use your DI ability to avoid the 7 you will win a lot more money faster on the STA bets with their multipliers.

And everyone on this site who follows the math will easily see that.

Why the heck would you bet $15 on the passline to win $15 with a come out 7 when with the same $15 on the STA bets you would win 5X35 + 5X35 + 5X175 without even the burden of hitting a repeater by avoiding the 7?

Why wouldn't you bet the $15 PL vs. the $15 STA bets?

The likelihood of hitting them in succession is astronomical, quite literally. I don't care how good the guys you "hung out with" that were into DI, not a single one of them could consistently roll the STA bets, without that consistency, you're just gambling against a large HE and hoping to get lucky.

I get the impression that you think DI is about hitting a specific number (calling) or about being able to roll everything in sequence, it isn't.

I'm not sure if you're misguided, disillusioned, uninformed, or just being a smartass.

Quote: Exoter175

Why wouldn't you bet the $15 PL vs. the $15 STA bets?

The likelihood of hitting them in succession is astronomical, quite literally. I don't care how good the guys you "hung out with" that were into DI, not a single one of them could consistently roll the STA bets, without that consistency, you're just gambling against a large HE and hoping to get lucky.

I get the impression that you think DI is about hitting a specific number (calling) or about being able to roll everything in sequence, it isn't.

I'm not sure if you're misguided, disillusioned, uninformed, or just being a smartass.

DI is all about avoiding the 7. And the more numbers you can throw the more you will win. And the bet that will give you the maximum return when you can throw numbers is the small, tall, all bet.

I take offense that you call me a smart ass. I am asking you to look at the pays on a craps table. What bet with the exception of the Fire Bet can pay out more than the STA?

Anyone claiming to be a DI should be all over the STA because it's the quickest way to make big money with the smallest cost.

Quote: AlanMendelson

DI is all about avoiding the 7. And the more numbers you can throw the more you will win. And the bet that will give you the maximum return when you can throw numbers is the small, tall, all bet.

I take offense that you call me a smart ass. I am asking you to look at the pays on a craps table. What bet with the exception of the Fire Bet can pay out more than the STA?

Anyone claiming to be a DI should be all over the STA because it's the quickest way to make big money with the smallest cost.

Are you saying this from a "gamblers perspective" because of the payouts, or because you actually know what DI is and how it works? Because if you did know, or were one, you'd know that the ATS/SAT bet is an awful one we wouldn't even remotely consider going for.

Meanwhile, you keep suggesting that "any real DI" would go for it, or throw it. I'm a real DI, I'd never go for it or intentionally throw it because I'd never bet it in the first place. That part, I don't think you understand, how a DI truly bets. If you're under some misguided idea that we bet strictly for the "higher payouts" and have managed to set our dice in such a way that we can hit those higher payout bets, then you're sorely mistaken.

Exoter here is what I am telling you: anyone who claims to be a DI should be playing the STA bets. What good is having a skill to influence dice if you are not hitting the bets that are going to give you the biggest return with the least amount of up-front money?

The STA bets are a gift from the casinos to anyone who claims to be a DI.

If you are a DI and you are not making the STA bets all I can say is why????

Unlike come bets, the casino isn't even asking you to hit the numbers twice. Just once. And to get 35 for 1 on your money you only have to hit 5 different numbers.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Exoter here is what I am telling you: anyone who claims to be a DI should be playing the STA bets. What good is having a skill to influence dice if you are not hitting the bets that are going to give you the biggest return with the least amount of up-front money?

The STA bets are a gift from the casinos to anyone who claims to be a DI.

If you are a DI and you are not making the STA bets all I can say is why????

Unlike come bets, the casino isn't even asking you to hit the numbers twice. Just once. And to get 35 for 1 on your money you only have to hit 5 different numbers.

Again, you really don't understand the idea behind Dice Control.

Also, what is it about the STA bet that you are so drawn to? Explain to me how its a better investment of money than anything else in the casino. How much theoretical winnings in a day is there to be made on the STA bet vs. the passline bet?

I promise you if we spent 12 hours on the tables, you shooting for the STA and me shooting for the 7 on the come out, I'll make more money than you that day, and forever indefinitely. Do you know why, or are you just being foolish?

Quote: Exoter175

Also, what is it about the STA bet that you are so drawn to?

That I've won money at it. Does that work for you?

Quote: Wizard

Quote: BlueEagle

(If Wizard reads this, there are two errors/typos in the All bet description. "A win pays 175 to 1, or 175 for 1." should be "A win pays 174 to 1, or 175 for 1." Also, "The lower right cell shows a house edge of 7.99%." but actually, the lower right cell shows -0.074645.)

Thank you for that correction.

Regarding the OP, I think a hypothetical dice influencer would be better off betting the pass and come with full odds than go up against the high house edge of the small, tall, or all.

Maybe the hard way bets in the UK and Australia that pay liberal odds.

I do a full analysis of the math behind these bets on my website goodshooter.com

http://forum.goodshooter.com/topic441.html

I am not sure I agree with the Wizard on the concern over the house edge on these bets. While it's true that the cost is higher as a ratio of bet amount, a very good shooter can target specific numbers, and over the course of the average number of rolls, it is harder for the casino to use math in order to assert that you have an edge compared to someone who is just getting lucky.

To compare apples to apples (assuming a player can develop an edge) I think you need to compute the COMPOUND edge of pressing the four or ten all the way up to a 176-for-1 or better payout to do a fair comparison.

In other words, the pay multiple being so much higher and the fact that theoretically a controlled shooter can aim for multiple different specific targets and not just shoot to avoid the seven should be considered when contemplating a best strategy for a DI to make money without being told that they can no longer play.

The biggest tip I have ever received from a player was for passing the dice to someone who won $100 each on these three bets. He tossed me a purple, and I said thank you twice and bolted to the cashier!

LOL.

Great bet, though, even though I have never won the 176-to-1 and haven't played it more than once or twice.

I've had it get paid while I was shooting plenty of times, obviously, just never won it for myself nor have I bet it much at all.

I think even the 34-to-1 payout I have only been paid once and I'm pretty sure I am currently a lifetime winner on these specific bets (just due to lack of play).

AHIgh said "theoretically a controlled shooter can aim for multiple different specific targets"...

The issue is that every time someone issues a challenge for a "dice influencer" or "dice controller" to prove that they are, we have a zillion posts and no one takes them up on it. At this point, someone needs to prove influence/control to make it worth spending too much time on.

I will be in Vegas Nov 8-12. I'd love to see some dice influenced or controlled...

Yes, someone who gets less 7's could gain an advantage on many bets. I find it hard to believe that any influence or control led to the removal of these bets; some fancy pants probably had no idea of the house edge, saw a big hit on it and had to go. Our very own Wizard's unfortunate experience at a casino job shows how little they really care about the math of the games...he was there and could have helped them; they let him go and likely kept some MBA ass wipe who has no clue.

I dont claim to have any control, and I can't influence the dice to hit or target particular numbers.

But I do use the cross-sixes set which, with a soft throw, can minimize the appearance of the 7. And if I can throw the dice enough times without a seven showing I can sometimes hit the small or the tall and sometimes both.

So far, I have had outstanding luck. I have hit either the small or the tall several times, and hit the all once.

As I've written before, I hit the ALL after making only two passes. Usually, two passes is not enough to give any player a substantial win -- but I won big because I had $5 on each of the small, tall and all bets.

And last week I had $25 on the small, tall and all and hit the tall for a very nice payday and again I only made two passes.

I'll say it again: if anyone thinks they can minimize the appearance of the 7 they'd be silly not to make these bets. And you don't need a monster roll to make a lot of money -- just five numbers will make you a nice return, and you win the whole ball of wax with just ten throws of the dice -- WITHOUT THE NEED TO THROW EVEN ON REPEATER.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I dont claim to have any control, and I can't influence the dice to hit or target particular numbers.

But I do use the cross-sixes set which, with a soft throw, can minimize the appearance of the 7. And if I can throw the dice enough times without a seven showing I can sometimes hit the small or the tall and sometimes both.

If you truly can minimize the appearance of the 7, you are influencing the dice. Every time the seven doesn't appear, you get that number plus an additional throw. That would help you win the ATS bet but it would also give you more opportunities to hit every other potential bet.

Quote: RonC

If you truly can minimize the appearance of the 7, you are influencing the dice. Every time the seven doesn't appear, you get that number plus an additional throw. That would help you win the ATS bet but it would also give you more opportunities to hit every other potential bet.

No question that when you are hitting numbers, you are hitting numbers. But you don't have to hit any number twice which makes the STA bet so attractive.

I have updated my craps appendix 5 once again to reflect odds of 175 to 1. I also verified these odds at the Golden Nugget today.

Sally, can I use those felt pictures on my site?

Quote: DeMango

ATS has already disappeared from 2 Biloxi casinos, they lost too much is the word. Biloxi is also now Firebet free, good riddance to bad rubbish.

I assume one of the casinos to be my beloved Beau Rivage? This is indeed sad news for me. Every trip I took there after they installed that bet, I won the S/A/T on the first craps session I played! That pays $1,225 for the $15 I put out there (although you have to reload for those pesky 7 comeout winners). So I was playing ahead right from the start. Sure helps the mindset. I saw the Small or Tall hit so much that first time I really expected them to pull the bet before I ever got back there. I really like that bet.

Quote: Exoter175

Sometimes I want to write a long novel about what DI truly is about and how we might set it up to "work" for us

Yes, any book about so-called "DI" must, ipso facto, be labeled a "novel."

Pulp fiction.

A belief system brought about by hope, desperation, cupidity and stupidity.

Quote: Wizard

I have updated my craps appendix 5 once again to reflect odds of 175 to 1. I also verified these odds at the Golden Nugget today.

Sally, can I use those felt pictures on my site?

I have played at the GN and Binions and i think i remember the layouts are the same. Been to Red Rock one time and i think they had the Fire Bet.
Any photo can be right-clicked in Google Chrome and searched
they are not mine
so have fun
i think i have one but who knows where?

Quote: AlanMendelson

No question that when you are hitting numbers, you are hitting numbers.

this is very confusing
i due know good jewish boys know about numbers (i am not a jewish girl)
can you change the words and translate?

Quote: AlanMendelson

But you don't have to hit any number twice which makes the STA bet so attractive.

you really mean
the pass line and come bet that the number has to hit twice B4 a 7 to win one time
myth thing.

you believe in that?
Meyer Lansky did not. (I like him)
Oh, I keep your secret that you act like a ploppy for show and entertsinment
<<<<<>>>>>
on the come-out roll for those that want the truth (another opinion)
there are 6 numbers that could be the point number in a game of craps
that only happens 2/3 of the time

so if the 1st roll is a 5 for example
NOW we have a point

we did not have point B4 the last roll

so one only needs to the the 5 ONE TIME to win B4 a 7 rolls
not 2 times as as (as^2) Alan M wants you and the whole world to believe

of course
this is just our opinions
and we both can not be right but could both easily be wrong!

"don't do it"

Quote: AlanMendelson

<snip> And you don't need a monster roll to make a lot of money -- just five numbers will make you a nice return,

so will betting on the 2 craps 2
pays 30 to 1 (a nice return) and a 1 in 36 chance to win
where the small or tall do pay a bit more but has only a 1 in what 38 chance to hit one time.

Quote: AlanMendelson

and you win the whole ball of wax with just ten throws of the dice -- WITHOUT THE NEED TO THROW EVEN ON REPEATER.

NO REPEATS!
you say so
you make it sound SO easy!

OK
I got this from my Uncle S (not Alan S)

you can come to Huntington Beach, play on a craps table to what you like like, choose the felt and the bounce you want, easy
*****
and you bet me $10,000 that yo (you) will hit the ATS on exactly 10 rolls in 10 rolls
a 7 or a repeat number and you lose
cuz you make it sound like this is so easy to do for a DI and you try, that makes you a DI

but this should be like taking money from a baby (me - a BIG baby)

if you win I pay you $20,000 cash - no check
All Bass - no Treble

you on!
i know you have the cash or can get cash

If that has a nasty taste
then $10,000 of yours against $10,000 of mine and you get 3 tries to win, damn, all good things come in 3
i know yo know that
<<<<<>>>>>
then IF you show you do have the talent for this
I will introduce you to a team with over $50 million in bankroll - they are looking for someone
just like you -
a nice jewish boy with a special talent
(and not that Jesus guy)

you could sell your business and rock out (as you say) all over the world
no wife to keep happy, no kids to please when they cry
the good life
<<<<<>>>>>
here
cuz i do like you (really your voice)
are the probabilities to win the ALL in 10 rolls from my calculations
1 in 69,968.00 (in any order you choose)
a nice round number

and for those interested
the average number of rolls to win the All bet - given you win it = 20.98972487
but for ANY DI, about 1 in 2 about

this is very old news
here is the distributation chart (thanks BruceZ)


let me know
my movers are coming to my house on Friday (tomorrow)
but I can fly from CT to CA to watch and learn from an old-timer, that is yo (said with toal love and that stuff)
with no problem to test you out for "the gift"
Sally

No bet.

Alan does not claim to be a DI or a DC, although he is a DS (and a BMF).

He wishes he were a DI, though: he knows they exist.

Alan claims to have seen a few real, bonafide DI's blithely and mercilessly plying their craft at the craps tables then disappearing into the night like an evening zephyr, never to be seen again.

Ah, craps lore.

What is the "break even" Seven to Rolls Ratio for the STA? Another way, "In 100 rolls of the dice, how many 7's should a "DI" be able to max out at consistently in order to make the STA wager a break even proposition?"

Quote: MrV

No bet.

Alan does not claim to be a DI or a DC, although he is a DS (and a BMF).

i say
yes bet
i know that claim

but he tries to be a DI, he even says the set and how the throw (force) is to b used

and that 2 me is exactly the same because
trying and being are the same, for a DI.

this is also to test for his "skill" at being a DI, because he tries (no harm in trying he says)
he has some degree of success at DI, not 0
it can be exactly calculated

unless he is just plain "chicken" and most like chicken
so that is good being chicken

Quote: Ayecarumba

What is the "break even" Seven to Rolls Ratio for the STA?

this has to remain a secret
as all DIs have poor math skills to answer that question, imo (miplet knows)
I have the answer in an Excel matrix worksheet
and it is hidden

as they (DIs) could crush this bet and take so much real $$$ that the bet would be pulled
from all tables in the world

this should not be done
as i have yet to win the All (i mean if Alan M "don't do it" can due it, i can do it.)
it is hard to bet it when it is not in SoCal
<<<<<>>>>>

and i do not have a gambling problem (i love donuts, sucker)
and i am not a degenerate-gambler-type

like
those that strut around showing their feathers off
and saying things like" loook at me. look at MY big win!"

of course, they fail to explain the whole truth they are
a lifetime loser-gambler (the most popular)
and that , say $200,000 win only cost $1.95 million in real money, not counting the super-comps that is
<<<<<>>>>>
no
do not go there
no-one answer the question to assist any DI

no
no
don't do it
Mully

Quote: Ayecarumba

What is the "break even" Seven to Rolls Ratio for the STA? Another way, "In 100 rolls of the dice, how many 7's should a "DI" be able to max out at consistently in order to make the STA wager a break even proposition?"

I just may try answer to that. To do so, I would need an assumption about the distribution of the other totals when the shooter does not get a seven. In my craps appendix 4, I assume the shooter has a better than totally random chance to keep the dice on axis, and when he doesn't, it is a random toss. I do not know if that assumption is realistic.

On a related note, I saw a shooter at the Golden Nugget yesterday who I must admit was rather impressive. About half the time one of the dice just barely kissed the opposite wall, while the other one bounced off the wall about a foot. However, he held them side by side in the toss. Perhaps they were angled a little bit. Please note I'm not claiming he had any influence of the dice, but could at least put a very good backspin on one of them.

Quote: Wizard

I just may try answer to that. To do so, I would need an assumption about the distribution of the other totals when the shooter does not get a seven.

good luck with that effort
(i will dust off my matrix solution (i know i have a recursion one 2 but have to look at it.)
Lots to do when waiting for the movers to show and a big house move.
my 1st!)

bone tracker (from Wong) can do
the distribution part, but i have never seen any posted data on the net from any DI- even Ahigh is silent on this
(silence IS golden)
but you have to enter the data of actual dice rolls to get the distribution of any DI skills

Frank S and Smart Craps went silent when i tried to get his data and the data from the software
, but it was the expectation

no doubt this bet can be crushed by the "right team"
the wrong teams
as there are many
will still try
and good luck to them

added: i almost forget
WinCraps Pro does this in the free version
and it is very easy too. just change the prob for a 7 and it can change all the others equally for you and then show what the advantage is

Steen really did a nice job on that software
nice words are nice
i do not have that on my laptop but do have it on another

Quote: Wizard

I just may try answer to that. To do so, I would need an assumption about the distribution of the other totals when the shooter does not get a seven.

I think that Alan's approach to this is sound. Assume the reduced number of sevens is proportionately distributed across all other totals. The shooter is not trying to hit a certain number, but trying to avoid any total of seven.

Quote: Ayecarumba

I think that Alan's approach to this is sound. Assume the reduced number of sevens is proportionately distributed across all other totals. The shooter is not trying to hit a certain number, but trying to avoid any total of seven.

This doesn't seem sound to me. There is physics involved as well as math. The throw of both dice must be correlated somehow. I need to what that correlation is supposed to be.

Quote: mustangsally

added: i almost forget
WinCraps Pro does this in the free version
and it is very easy too. just change the prob for a 7 and it can change all the others equally for you and then show what the advantage is

Can you please save me the trouble and just tell me what me the probability is for every total at various seven probabilities. Perhaps we can look at that and discern the theory behind how dice influence allegedly works.

Quote: Wizard

This doesn't seem sound to me. There is physics involved as well as math. The throw of both dice must be correlated somehow. I need to what that correlation is supposed to be.

Let me just give a quick guess, you want to know the correlation. If someone knows it, they may decide not to share it. Surprise! No doubt when they are super rich beyond all imagination, then they will share with us peons, the whole story.

What's new?

Quote: Wizard

Can you please save me the trouble and just tell me what me the probability is for every total at various seven probabilities. Perhaps we can look at that and discern the theory behind how dice influence allegedly works.

There is more than one theory because there are several different ways the dice could be thrown, bounce, and come to rest. Once you pick one, then you can model the distribution under the assumption of a given degree of success. But it all depends on the throw.

BTW, there was a recent paper that indicated dice rolls were chaotic. So this is likely an academic exercise. Still, not all throwing techniques are ... sliding isn't.

Absent a better idea, I will go back to the Wong axis theory that the two dice stay on the same axis they were thrown more than the (4/6)^2=4/9 expected rolls. When they do stay on axis, the 16 possible outcomes are all equally likely. When at least one is off-axis, then all those 20 possible outcomes are also equally likely.

Quote: Wizard

This doesn't seem sound to me. There is physics involved as well as math. The throw of both dice must be correlated somehow. I need to what that correlation is supposed to be.

Absent actual data, isn't it all a thought exercise? Assume each of the remaining combinations goes up 1/30th of a percent for every percent the seven is reduced. In other words, if no seven...random.

2 & 12 = +0.0333 each
3 & 11 = +0.0667 each
4 & 10 = +0.1000 each
5 & 9 = +0.1333 each
6 & 8 = +0.1667 each
7 = -1%

This represents a shooter whose goal is not to hit a certain number, but to only avoid any seven. They have no way to make a particular number come up more frequently, but they can consistently make a particular number appear less frequently.

Would it work better to say that the shooter can make the 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 and 12 appear more frequently than random?

On another topic, I don't know what happens to these three bets if the shooter throws a two, three or 12 coming out, then decides to pass the dice; or is shooting from the Don't and loses when they makes the point. Do the STA bets stay up and carry over to the next shooter?

Quote: Ayecarumba

In other words, if no seven...random.

But the shooter is not trying to throw a specific seven, like 2-5. He is setting the dice a certain way that certain outcomes will be more likely than others. There are various likely outcomes and various unlikely ones.

What you said would be a good rough way to answer the original question but I know I'll get challenged behind my methodology if I go with it, so I'd like to have something solid to quote.

Quote: Wizard

But the shooter is not trying to throw a specific seven, like 2-5. He is setting the dice a certain way that certain outcomes will be more likely than others. There are various likely outcomes and various unlikely ones.

What you said would be a good rough way to answer the original question but I know I'll get challenged behind my methodology if I go with it, so I'd like to have something solid to quote.

I appreciate your thoroughness Wizard. Perhaps Alan can provide some insight into his approach as a shooter. My impression from what he has written is that he is setting the dice to try to make certain totals appear more often, and the winning sequences of rolls just happen to come along.

What makes these bets appear vulnerable is that they are multi-roll wagers where you win by randomly hitting each number once. All you need to do is avoid the most common total.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Perhaps Alan can provide some insight into his approach as a shooter.

If he cares to address that, I'm all ears. After the whole 1/6 debacle, I'm in no mood to ask.

Quote: Ayecarumba

...
On another topic, I don't know what happens to these three bets if the shooter throws a two, three or 12 coming out, then decides to pass the dice; or is shooting from the Don't and loses when they makes the point. Do the STA bets stay up and carry over to the next shooter?

The STA bets are completely independent of the PL/ DP bets, or the status of the next roll, be it a Come Out roll, or otherwise.
It is as simple as it appears.

ANY 7, at any time, wipes out the STA bet.

This is where it gets expensive. Those come out 7 winners wipe your bets out every time. Bet 5/5/5 (S/T/A) and shooter rolls 7 , 11,2,7,7. So you are down $45 on the STA, and putting up another $15 if you want to try again.

What does seem to vary is when the casino will let you make the bet. Some will only allow you to bet it on the original roll of the shooter. The more forward thinking casinos realize they have a ~8% HE, and are happy to let you bet it anytime there are not any numbers already covered.
I played one place where they let me bet the STA in the middle of an existing roll. No one had been on the bet, so they had not been tracking any numbers. I started in the middle of the roll, and they started tracking at that point.

At Bellagio is where I've had my wins with the STA bets. So did my son who just flung the dice down the table and he made the ALL once. His girlfriend, another flinger also made the ALL. Both times he was betting $10 on all three spots. He was also betting $10 on all three spots when I made the ALL.

I don't claim to be a successful DI but I certainly try to influence the dice. Why would I play the game if I wasn't trying to win?

Is there any "naysayer" on this forum who plays craps and throws the dice without the intention or goal of winning? If so, please save your time at the tables and send your check to the Renal Support Network which helps teenagers on dialysis cope with their illness. It is the charity that I support.

I started this thread simply to point out that anyone who claims to have a superior SRR should be making this bet. Anyone who says they are a "good shooter" or has some success with DI would be foolish not to make these STA bets because they are easier to win than making the points in the Fire Bet. The Fire Bet requires that you establish the point and roll the number again -- the STA only requires that you roll each number once, and that's a gift from the casinos even if it is difficult to do.

No one said winning the STA was easy -- but its darn easier than winning the Fire Bet.

Mustang Sally, no one is stopping you from also betting the 2 while you also are betting the STA. But the 2 is a hop bet -- you have one chance at it. With the STA if it takes you a hundred rolls to get all the numbers you can take those 100 rolls as long as you don't roll a 7.

This next statement is meant for those on this forum who say they have some influence on the dice: Guys (gals) if you really have any influence, adjust your throw or set to increase your SRR and make the STA bets. There is no easier way to make money.

Quote: Wizard

Can you please save me the trouble and just tell me what me the probability is for every total at various seven probabilities. Perhaps we can look at that and discern the theory behind how dice influence allegedly works.

i only have a few minutes
the baseball games are on
pizza is here (another of my many loves)

it seems i was into this at one point as i had this alrady in the folder
but working with DIs have proved to be a waste of time, 4me


the reason i was working on this was because this bet by just -about-all is really a 3 unit bet
and that is what is should be calculated as
so off i go back to the game

here in WCPro is the 1 less 7 in 72 rolls
the photos should be what you want

+ this equates (for the DIs) into a straight 72/11 = 6.545 SRR or 1 less 7 in 72 rolls
the random edges


a 6.55srr or whatever (no DI could do this, btw, even the great Donald Catlin said he same thing to all DIs)


crushing the ats bet


Sally says