## Poll

3 votes (10.71%) | |||

16 votes (57.14%) | |||

3 votes (10.71%) | |||

6 votes (21.42%) | |||

No votes (0%) |

**28 members have voted**

Please let me know if anything about my explanation isn't clear or you have any questions.

The question for the poll is if you were playing craps anyway, would you make these bets?

Link: patent application.

Plus if you just parlayed a $6 place bet on the 6, including the short pays for fractional bets, I come up with 101-1 as your payout after six 6's.

Quote:ParadigmPlus if you just parlayed a $6 place bet on the 6, including the short pays for fractional bets, I come up with 101-1 as your payout after six 6's.

Good point! However, the odds on the Repeater bets are better on the points of 4 and 5, assuming place bets on the 4 is the alternative. If you can buy the 4 and pay the commission on a win only (odds of 59 for 20) then the buy bet parlay is much better.

I agree the Small/Tall/All bet is my favorite too. At 7% I don't feel bad playing it, and it makes for a nice ~$1200 payday on a $15 bet.

Even though it's three bets, I would consider the All/Small/Tall bets if a come-out 7 didn't kill it.

I might consider the Repeater bet under Variation 1, where the come-out roll doesn't count. But now we're talking about five $1 bets. Or ten $1 bets on Variation 2. I think I'll pass.

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Looking at the payouts for the high numbers on Variation 3 makes me think that this game designer doesn't have a clue.

One thing I've learned over the last few years is that, surprise surprise, casinos don't like to pay out huge jackpots, no matter how high the edge is.

You can be sure the 12 would be bought for a few hundred, or perhaps a G, and you probably would have the horn crowd playing $100 midnights every roll. That would be an insane scene.

As to the bet itself, what a HE! Put me down as another who likes A/T/S. Then the Fire. This would be a distant third if at all.

Quote:beachbumbabs100 years ago (or so) "Repeater" was a reference to foods that made you pass gas, specifically beans. So I'm finding it amusing that a game called "craps" now has a "repeater" bet.

As to the bet itself, what a HE! Put me down as another who likes A/T/S. Then the Fire. This would be a distant third if at all.

Well most craps games also had a Big 6 and Big 8 bet, which were colloquially referred to as 'shitty bets'

Quote:RaleighCrapsIf the casino ever got to the point where they had to pay out for 12 twelves, that table would have dumped so much money by then, someone would have pulled a fire alarm.

You can be sure the 12 would be bought for a few hundred, or perhaps a G, and you probably would have the horn crowd playing $100 midnights every roll. That would be an insane scene.

Even with a house edge of 99.6%, no casino would put in that 12 bet. If it ever hit everyone who had anything to do with approving it would get blamed. There is a saying in the gaming business -- You're only as good as you were yesterday.

Quote:DJTeddyBearEven though it's three bets, I would consider the All/Small/Tall bets if a come-out 7 didn't kill it.

I don't understand why this makes a difference........it's not like the shooter can be "trying" for the 7 on the come out roll......unless you are a DI believer ;-), which I know you aren't!!

Quote:ParadigmI don't understand why this makes a difference........it's not like the shooter can be "trying" for the 7 on the come out roll......unless you are a DI believer ;-), which I know you aren't!!

You're right.

On a real / physical / physics level, I don't believe in dice influence.

However, on a cosmic / karma level, aren't most players hoping / rooting for a 7 on a come out roll? Having an a/s/t bet is a conflict. For that matter, so is a come bet, which is why I prefer place bets.

Quote:beachbumbabs100 years ago (or so) "Repeater" was a reference to foods that made you pass gas, specifically beans. So I'm finding it amusing that a game called "craps" now has a "repeater" bet.

100 years ago? How about last month? The phrase pops up most often when discussing White Castle...

Would love to see how many players would play a bet that has a HE of nearly 1. Might as well install a bill shredder at the table :-)

Darth

Quote:darthvaderWould love to see how many players would play a bet that has a HE of nearly 1. Might as well install a bill shredder at the table :-)

I would bet that at least 25% of the players would bet it.

Quote:WizardEven with a house edge of 99.6%, no casino would put in that 12 bet. If it ever hit everyone who had anything to do with approving it would get blamed. There is a saying in the gaming business -- You're only as good as you were yesterday.

This seems so short-sighted -- you'd think that the casino would understand math better and take something like this in stride if it hits earlier than expected. Heck, couldn't they get it insured by Lloyds of London or something? I imagine that is how those million/billion dollar NCAA perfect bracket games are set up.

Quote:MrRollerThis seems so short-sighted -- you'd think that the casino would understand math better and take something like this in stride if it hits earlier than expected. Heck, couldn't they get it insured by Lloyds of London or something? I imagine that is how those million/billion dollar NCAA perfect bracket games are set up.

I agree with you. Casinos actually over-insure such things -- taking out insurance on events they should have plenty of money to cover.

Quote:WizardI agree with you. Casinos actually over-insure such things -- taking out insurance on events they should have plenty of money to cover.

Interesting. I can understand the need for relatively balanced books on a month-to-month basis, but would think the gaming industry might be a little more risk tolerant.

Now with our hypothetical twelve 12's bet, the real question is if it would bring in enough revenue to justify the staff training / space on the felt/insurance costs. Having spent a lot of times around craps tables, my inkling is that it would, 90% house edge or no.

Then again, my opinion as a gambler is that just about any reasonably designed side bet would bring in revenue -- to the point where it is kind of crazy to me that a cost-averse casino is willing to spend money to license such things instead of dreaming them up in house. It seems like you could hire a grad math student from UNLV for peanuts and have 10 such bets designed in a weekend.

Quote:MrRoller... it is kind of crazy to me that a cost-averse casino is willing to spend money to license such things instead of dreaming them up in house. It seems like you could hire a grad math student from UNLV for peanuts and have 10 such bets designed in a weekend.

You're totally oversimplifying things.

Coming up with the idea is a huge hurdle. Oh, sure, now that you've read about the repeater bet, it seems so simple. But if it was really that simple, why didn't you or anyone else already come up with it?

I'm not even talking about the math or the payouts. That can come after. Just the idea itself. Why didn't anyone come up with it already?

You want some kid fresh out of school to come up with 10 new ideas overnight? Talk about a homework assignment!

And it's not just the money for licensing that has casinos hesitant. You make it sound like if a casino were offered a new game for free, with math analysis, with a free table felt and equipment, and free marketing materials, that they'd jump all over it. Well, that happens every day of the week, but casinos are still reluctant. What I just described is called a field trial. Ask a casino to do a field trial of a new game and one of the first questions they will ask is if any casino in some other market has done one yet.

And if a casino did dream up a new game in house, they'd have to worry about other casinos copying the idea, or -gasp- improving upon it. They'd also have to worry about potentially infringing on someone's game patent.

Who needs those kinds of headaches?

So when a gaming company goes to a casino and says, "We've got this game that's already being played in X casinos, and it's making $X for them." Then they can talk about it.

Quote:ParadigmNot for me.......Galaxy has the best side bet for craps IMHO with the Small/Tall/All. Mid 7% HE and payouts up to 175-1. These HE's are in the 18-22% range......why not just play Keno?

Plus if you just parlayed a $6 place bet on the 6, including the short pays for fractional bets, I come up with 101-1 as your payout after six 6's.

very interesting--i came up with the same 101:1 (101.333:1) but my pea brain thought "well, why not keep the bets 'proper' and forgo the short pays with a 'refined' parlay: wouldnt the results come out better?

2nd bet (pocket $1) $12 pays $14

3rd bet (pocket $2) $24 pays $28

4th bet (add $2 from pocket) $54 pays $63

5th bet (pocket $3) $114 pays $133

6th bet (pocket $1) $246 pays $287 plus the $5 in your pocket = $538

or about 90:1 (slightly less actually), the same as our topical sucker bet!

so, no! making the improper bets is better...coulda fooled me

tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p

Could you clarify something just to make sure I understand?

Taking the 4 as an example, the odds of a 4 coming up 4 times before a 7 is 1 in 80.9978941 correct? (Or as your table says- 1.2346%)

Does this mean that each time the game starts (new shooter), there is 1.2% chance of winning?

What is the probability or percent chance of winning after 65 tries? What about after 81 tries?

Finally, how many times would you expect that reapeter bet to win after 1000 rolls?

The reason I ask is because yesterday I played craps for about 10 hrs at the 3$ table at The Freemont. They have variant 2 repeater bets. I never saw it hit once, but to be honest, didn't pay strict attention. When I shot one time I had 5 8s and 4 5s, but 7 outed.

Parenthetically, they allow a buy (pay on win) for $5 on 4 and 10 (vig $0.25). How cool is that?

Quote:slackyhackyTaking the 4 as an example, the odds of a 4 coming up 4 times before a 7 is 1 in 80.9978941 correct? (Or as your table says- 1.2346%)

Does this mean that each time the game starts (new shooter), there is 1.2% chance of winning?

Yes.

Quote:What is the probability or percent chance of winning after 65 tries? What about after 81 tries?

1.2%. The past does not matter.

Quote:Finally, how many times would you expect that reapeter bet to win after 1000 rolls?

If you're asking, what is the probability of a win after 1,000 losses, the answer is 1.2%. Again, the past doesn't matter. The dice don't have a memory.

Quote:The reason I ask is because yesterday I played craps for about 10 hrs at the 3$ table at The Freemont. They have variant 2 repeater bets. I never saw it hit once, but to be honest, didn't pay strict attention. When I shot one time I had 5 8s and 4 5s, but 7 outed.

Ten hours?! That would be about 75 shooters. The expected number of Repeater bets hitting per shooter is 6.74%. I put the probability of no wins in 75 shooters at about 1 in 188.

Quote:Parenthetically, they allow a buy (pay on win) for $5 on 4 and 10 (vig $0.25). How cool is that?

It is pretty standard to charge the vig on a win only on the 4 and 10.

Two 2s before a 7? Happens every day. And this is better because it's not a hop bet.

Quote:Wizard

1.2%. The past does not matter.

I don't think I was clear. I apologize.

It can't be 1.2% I'm not asking what is the chance of the very next game for it to win.

I am asking, before you start to play, and you ask yourself - I am going to play this repeater game on 4 for the next 65 games. What is the probability I win one time? What about in the next 82 games? What about the next 1000 rolls?

The answer can't be 1.2% no matter how many times I decide to play. I get the very next time it is played will always be 1.2%.

In fact you just said that the probability of one win assuming one played all repeater bets over 1000 rolls (10 hr play) is about 99.47%

Quote:Wizard

It is pretty standard to charge the vig on a win only on the 4 and 10.

The buy in $5 was the unique part.