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Wizard
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April 6th, 2015 at 5:29:45 PM permalink
I just saw a set of new side bets at the Suncoast. There are five bets, numbered 2 to 6. For each bet to win, you have to roll that total that same number of times before a seven to win. For example, for the bet on six to win, the shooter must roll six sixes before a seven to win. That win pays 90 for 1. I try to explain everyting in my craps side bet section.


Please let me know if anything about my explanation isn't clear or you have any questions.

The question for the poll is if you were playing craps anyway, would you make these bets?

Link: patent application.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DeMango
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April 6th, 2015 at 5:36:26 PM permalink
Where is the choice: Yes, I am a dice sitter and the odds are in my favor!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Paradigm
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April 6th, 2015 at 5:42:04 PM permalink
Not for me.......Galaxy has the best side bet for craps IMHO with the Small/Tall/All. Mid 7% HE and payouts up to 175-1. These HE's are in the 18-22% range......why not just play Keno?

Plus if you just parlayed a $6 place bet on the 6, including the short pays for fractional bets, I come up with 101-1 as your payout after six 6's.
Wizard
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April 6th, 2015 at 5:44:49 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Plus if you just parlayed a $6 place bet on the 6, including the short pays for fractional bets, I come up with 101-1 as your payout after six 6's.



Good point! However, the odds on the Repeater bets are better on the points of 4 and 5, assuming place bets on the 4 is the alternative. If you can buy the 4 and pay the commission on a win only (odds of 59 for 20) then the buy bet parlay is much better.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
charliepatrick
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April 6th, 2015 at 5:47:33 PM permalink
Seems quite bad house edge. It's an interesting assumption in the patent that one selling point for the bet is want to offer higher odds and larger possible wins to attract new Craps players. I suspect most new players find it daunting, so another set of bets would make it more complicated. I once heard of someone who didn't play roulette, because they thought the racetrack was too complicated and so went and played Blackjack. I don't know how game designers have a chance of working out what some people want if that's how they feel!
RaleighCraps
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April 6th, 2015 at 5:49:06 PM permalink
2,3,4 seem to have a reasonable chance of hitting, although I would like the bet better with no action on the come out. But the HE is too greedy. Pure casino robbery. The payouts need to be better to get the HE down to 9-10% range.

I agree the Small/Tall/All bet is my favorite too. At 7% I don't feel bad playing it, and it makes for a nice ~$1200 payday on a $15 bet.
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DJTeddyBear
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April 6th, 2015 at 5:59:52 PM permalink
I play the Fire Bet because I like that it's only one small bet that's live for the entire duration of the shooter's turn. I also play it for the minimum of $1. What's a buck?

Even though it's three bets, I would consider the All/Small/Tall bets if a come-out 7 didn't kill it.

I might consider the Repeater bet under Variation 1, where the come-out roll doesn't count. But now we're talking about five $1 bets. Or ten $1 bets on Variation 2. I think I'll pass.

---

Looking at the payouts for the high numbers on Variation 3 makes me think that this game designer doesn't have a clue.

One thing I've learned over the last few years is that, surprise surprise, casinos don't like to pay out huge jackpots, no matter how high the edge is.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
RaleighCraps
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April 6th, 2015 at 6:08:04 PM permalink
If the casino ever got to the point where they had to pay out for 12 twelves, that table would have dumped so much money by then, someone would have pulled a fire alarm.

You can be sure the 12 would be bought for a few hundred, or perhaps a G, and you probably would have the horn crowd playing $100 midnights every roll. That would be an insane scene.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
beachbumbabs
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April 6th, 2015 at 7:04:30 PM permalink
100 years ago (or so) "Repeater" was a reference to foods that made you pass gas, specifically beans. So I'm finding it amusing that a game called "craps" now has a "repeater" bet.

As to the bet itself, what a HE! Put me down as another who likes A/T/S. Then the Fire. This would be a distant third if at all.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Actuarial
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April 6th, 2015 at 7:10:36 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

100 years ago (or so) "Repeater" was a reference to foods that made you pass gas, specifically beans. So I'm finding it amusing that a game called "craps" now has a "repeater" bet.

As to the bet itself, what a HE! Put me down as another who likes A/T/S. Then the Fire. This would be a distant third if at all.



Well most craps games also had a Big 6 and Big 8 bet, which were colloquially referred to as 'shitty bets'
Wizard
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April 6th, 2015 at 9:19:15 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

If the casino ever got to the point where they had to pay out for 12 twelves, that table would have dumped so much money by then, someone would have pulled a fire alarm.

You can be sure the 12 would be bought for a few hundred, or perhaps a G, and you probably would have the horn crowd playing $100 midnights every roll. That would be an insane scene.



Even with a house edge of 99.6%, no casino would put in that 12 bet. If it ever hit everyone who had anything to do with approving it would get blamed. There is a saying in the gaming business -- You're only as good as you were yesterday.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Paradigm
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April 6th, 2015 at 10:04:51 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Even though it's three bets, I would consider the All/Small/Tall bets if a come-out 7 didn't kill it.


I don't understand why this makes a difference........it's not like the shooter can be "trying" for the 7 on the come out roll......unless you are a DI believer ;-), which I know you aren't!!
DJTeddyBear
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April 7th, 2015 at 5:14:25 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

I don't understand why this makes a difference........it's not like the shooter can be "trying" for the 7 on the come out roll......unless you are a DI believer ;-), which I know you aren't!!


You're right.

On a real / physical / physics level, I don't believe in dice influence.

However, on a cosmic / karma level, aren't most players hoping / rooting for a 7 on a come out roll? Having an a/s/t bet is a conflict. For that matter, so is a come bet, which is why I prefer place bets.



Quote: beachbumbabs

100 years ago (or so) "Repeater" was a reference to foods that made you pass gas, specifically beans. So I'm finding it amusing that a game called "craps" now has a "repeater" bet.


100 years ago? How about last month? The phrase pops up most often when discussing White Castle...
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
darthvader
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April 7th, 2015 at 5:42:37 AM permalink
Interesting write-up, Wiz. Your point on the self-service parlay being better in most cases reminded me of the analogous situation in sports betting, for example regarding futures to win the NCAA tourney.

Would love to see how many players would play a bet that has a HE of nearly 1. Might as well install a bill shredder at the table :-)

Darth
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Wizard
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April 7th, 2015 at 7:53:24 AM permalink
Quote: darthvader

Would love to see how many players would play a bet that has a HE of nearly 1. Might as well install a bill shredder at the table :-)



I would bet that at least 25% of the players would bet it.
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MrRoller
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April 7th, 2015 at 10:13:21 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Even with a house edge of 99.6%, no casino would put in that 12 bet. If it ever hit everyone who had anything to do with approving it would get blamed. There is a saying in the gaming business -- You're only as good as you were yesterday.



This seems so short-sighted -- you'd think that the casino would understand math better and take something like this in stride if it hits earlier than expected. Heck, couldn't they get it insured by Lloyds of London or something? I imagine that is how those million/billion dollar NCAA perfect bracket games are set up.
Wizard
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April 7th, 2015 at 10:26:49 AM permalink
Quote: MrRoller

This seems so short-sighted -- you'd think that the casino would understand math better and take something like this in stride if it hits earlier than expected. Heck, couldn't they get it insured by Lloyds of London or something? I imagine that is how those million/billion dollar NCAA perfect bracket games are set up.



I agree with you. Casinos actually over-insure such things -- taking out insurance on events they should have plenty of money to cover.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
MrRoller
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April 7th, 2015 at 12:50:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I agree with you. Casinos actually over-insure such things -- taking out insurance on events they should have plenty of money to cover.



Interesting. I can understand the need for relatively balanced books on a month-to-month basis, but would think the gaming industry might be a little more risk tolerant.

Now with our hypothetical twelve 12's bet, the real question is if it would bring in enough revenue to justify the staff training / space on the felt/insurance costs. Having spent a lot of times around craps tables, my inkling is that it would, 90% house edge or no.

Then again, my opinion as a gambler is that just about any reasonably designed side bet would bring in revenue -- to the point where it is kind of crazy to me that a cost-averse casino is willing to spend money to license such things instead of dreaming them up in house. It seems like you could hire a grad math student from UNLV for peanuts and have 10 such bets designed in a weekend.
DJTeddyBear
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April 7th, 2015 at 3:55:23 PM permalink
Quote: MrRoller

... it is kind of crazy to me that a cost-averse casino is willing to spend money to license such things instead of dreaming them up in house. It seems like you could hire a grad math student from UNLV for peanuts and have 10 such bets designed in a weekend.


You're totally oversimplifying things.

Coming up with the idea is a huge hurdle. Oh, sure, now that you've read about the repeater bet, it seems so simple. But if it was really that simple, why didn't you or anyone else already come up with it?

I'm not even talking about the math or the payouts. That can come after. Just the idea itself. Why didn't anyone come up with it already?

You want some kid fresh out of school to come up with 10 new ideas overnight? Talk about a homework assignment!

And it's not just the money for licensing that has casinos hesitant. You make it sound like if a casino were offered a new game for free, with math analysis, with a free table felt and equipment, and free marketing materials, that they'd jump all over it. Well, that happens every day of the week, but casinos are still reluctant. What I just described is called a field trial. Ask a casino to do a field trial of a new game and one of the first questions they will ask is if any casino in some other market has done one yet.

And if a casino did dream up a new game in house, they'd have to worry about other casinos copying the idea, or -gasp- improving upon it. They'd also have to worry about potentially infringing on someone's game patent.

Who needs those kinds of headaches?

So when a gaming company goes to a casino and says, "We've got this game that's already being played in X casinos, and it's making $X for them." Then they can talk about it.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Downtown
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August 7th, 2015 at 9:51:37 AM permalink
They also have this bet at the Freemont casino. Seen it hit a few times players getting paid 800 and 1200. Hard to get on that table, cause it's allways full. At the Freemont the bets come down if a seven comes on out on the come out roll after point is made.
betwthelines
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August 7th, 2015 at 7:30:50 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Not for me.......Galaxy has the best side bet for craps IMHO with the Small/Tall/All. Mid 7% HE and payouts up to 175-1. These HE's are in the 18-22% range......why not just play Keno?

Plus if you just parlayed a $6 place bet on the 6, including the short pays for fractional bets, I come up with 101-1 as your payout after six 6's.


very interesting--i came up with the same 101:1 (101.333:1) but my pea brain thought "well, why not keep the bets 'proper' and forgo the short pays with a 'refined' parlay: wouldnt the results come out better?
first bet $6 pays $7
2nd bet (pocket $1) $12 pays $14
3rd bet (pocket $2) $24 pays $28
4th bet (add $2 from pocket) $54 pays $63
5th bet (pocket $3) $114 pays $133
6th bet (pocket $1) $246 pays $287 plus the $5 in your pocket = $538

or about 90:1 (slightly less actually), the same as our topical sucker bet!

so, no! making the improper bets is better...coulda fooled me

tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
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slackyhacky
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September 11th, 2015 at 12:17:16 AM permalink
Wiz,

Could you clarify something just to make sure I understand?

Taking the 4 as an example, the odds of a 4 coming up 4 times before a 7 is 1 in 80.9978941 correct? (Or as your table says- 1.2346%)

Does this mean that each time the game starts (new shooter), there is 1.2% chance of winning?

What is the probability or percent chance of winning after 65 tries? What about after 81 tries?

Finally, how many times would you expect that reapeter bet to win after 1000 rolls?

The reason I ask is because yesterday I played craps for about 10 hrs at the 3$ table at The Freemont. They have variant 2 repeater bets. I never saw it hit once, but to be honest, didn't pay strict attention. When I shot one time I had 5 8s and 4 5s, but 7 outed.

Parenthetically, they allow a buy (pay on win) for $5 on 4 and 10 (vig $0.25). How cool is that?
Wizard
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September 11th, 2015 at 5:51:09 AM permalink
Quote: slackyhacky

Taking the 4 as an example, the odds of a 4 coming up 4 times before a 7 is 1 in 80.9978941 correct? (Or as your table says- 1.2346%)

Does this mean that each time the game starts (new shooter), there is 1.2% chance of winning?



Yes.

Quote:

What is the probability or percent chance of winning after 65 tries? What about after 81 tries?



1.2%. The past does not matter.

Quote:

Finally, how many times would you expect that reapeter bet to win after 1000 rolls?



If you're asking, what is the probability of a win after 1,000 losses, the answer is 1.2%. Again, the past doesn't matter. The dice don't have a memory.

Quote:

The reason I ask is because yesterday I played craps for about 10 hrs at the 3$ table at The Freemont. They have variant 2 repeater bets. I never saw it hit once, but to be honest, didn't pay strict attention. When I shot one time I had 5 8s and 4 5s, but 7 outed.



Ten hours?! That would be about 75 shooters. The expected number of Repeater bets hitting per shooter is 6.74%. I put the probability of no wins in 75 shooters at about 1 in 188.

Quote:

Parenthetically, they allow a buy (pay on win) for $5 on 4 and 10 (vig $0.25). How cool is that?



It is pretty standard to charge the vig on a win only on the 4 and 10.
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AlanMendelson
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September 11th, 2015 at 6:27:05 AM permalink
Too bad the variant of this bet wasn't available when I witnessed 18 yo's at Caesars.

Two 2s before a 7? Happens every day. And this is better because it's not a hop bet.
slackyhacky
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September 11th, 2015 at 9:55:49 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard





1.2%. The past does not matter.





I don't think I was clear. I apologize.

It can't be 1.2% I'm not asking what is the chance of the very next game for it to win.

I am asking, before you start to play, and you ask yourself - I am going to play this repeater game on 4 for the next 65 games. What is the probability I win one time? What about in the next 82 games? What about the next 1000 rolls?


The answer can't be 1.2% no matter how many times I decide to play. I get the very next time it is played will always be 1.2%.

In fact you just said that the probability of one win assuming one played all repeater bets over 1000 rolls (10 hr play) is about 99.47%

Quote: Wizard





It is pretty standard to charge the vig on a win only on the 4 and 10.



The buy in $5 was the unique part.
TheoHuxtable
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June 2nd, 2017 at 12:55:43 PM permalink
Am I correct in thinking this game does not need to be dealt as a contract bet?
Views are my own...
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