DI, DS,Craps and the facts.....
It is a repetitive discussion that is repeated over and over with no final substantial and provable discussion or answer. The house will always have the edge on the games they offer. They offer the game and expect to make a profit. Kind of like your supermarket. They offer something you want. They must operate at a profit to exist, even if they provide you with a frying pan for spending $100.
Gaming is offered to all for entertainment. I go to Disneyland to be entertained and spend money, Mickey Mouse never gives me money. I go to Vegas and sometimes I get money. Sometimes I figure out how to be an AP and win and sometimes my AP play loses.
I still have fun.
Sounds great in theory, but it's been many years after the fact, it's almost absurd to think not one person has come forward, especially since craps is so popular. There's a significant amount of money coming to the person who can prove it's doable. Without proof guys are cleaning up.Quote: mason2386Craps, alot of us love the game and would love to finally find a way to beat the house, hell FS has claimed over the years he and friends know how to, yet no one has proven it can be done. Verifiably be done. If anyone could prove it can be done, it would be a great treasure and be kept secret. Hell, if I found a solution that made met you a winner 50.1% of the time, I would never speak it for any game. DI and DS have never been proven, well if I could prove it you would never hear it from me. If yo could prove it, would ou post it for the world to see?
It is a repetitive discussion that is repeated over and over with no final substantial and provable discussion or answer. The house will always have the edge on the games they offer. They offer the game and expect to make a profit. Kind of like your supermarket. They offer something you want. They must operate at a profit to exist, even if they provide you with a frying pan for spending $100.
Gaming is offered to all for entertainment. I go to Disneyland to be entertained and spend money, Mickey Mouse never gives me money. I go to Vegas and sometimes I get money. Sometimes I figure out how to be an AP and win and sometimes my AP play loses.
I still have fun.
Just about all other methods have been exposed and talked about extensively. I mean seriously, someone wrote about flip it. Obviously there are certain plays that don't come to light, but the methods have been proven and once an explanation is given, it's easily understood.
Quote: mason2386Craps, alot of us love the game and would love to finally find a way to beat the house, hell FS has claimed over the years he and friends know how to, yet no one has proven it can be done. Verifiably be done. If anyone could prove it can be done, it would be a great treasure and be kept secret. Hell, if I found a solution that made met you a winner 50.1% of the time, I would never speak it for any game. DI and DS have never been proven, well if I could prove it you would never hear it from me. If yo could prove it, would ou post it for the world to see?
So would you argue that all the people who *already are* posting it for the world to see aren't actually able to prove it?
The problem with dice influence, and the factor that is different than virtually every other form of AP, is that allegations of dice influence is very difficult to quantify and distinguish from simply getting lucky. A blackjack card counter knows when they have the edge. They may not win but they know what the count is and when the edge swings in their favor. The same is true for someone who can view a dealer's hole card, vulture a slot bonus, or any number of other AP plays. Those plays come and go because the game itself fluctuates; the nature of the advantage play in all those games is being able to identify *when* the advantage exists and bet on it.
Craps is different because each roll is independent. If a shooter can influence the dice to yield a non-uniform die face distribution, nothing is stopping that shooter from influencing the dice all the time. For example, if their skill is such that one in ten times on average they succeed at keeping the dice on axis, the adjusted edges are quantifiable based on that skill. You wouldn't need to raise or lower your bets the way you do with card counting -- you'd simply flat bet on the right wagers and make money. That's not to say that a shooter would always succeed at influencing the dice, but getting to something like one in ten is obviously a lot different than "never." And in case you were looking for something to shoot for (pun intended), keeping the dice on-axis one time in ten yields a very nice edge.
But I have never seen any dice-influence adherent -- not once, ever -- discuss their success rate or make any attempt to distinguish a "good" throw from a "bad" one. All I read is "my SRR is 19" or "I see a lot of 1s and 6s when my shot is on." That's not good enough, or at least it shouldn't be. If you're willing to publish your attempts at beating the game, at least publish valid, useful information that can be used to tell skill from luck.
Quote: MathExtremistIf you're willing to publish your attempts at beating the game, at least publish valid, useful information that can be used to tell skill from luck.
That person would be a fool. Sharpshooter wrote some valid useful information, but got caught up in the Scoblete hucksterism.
Only the Cheesehead falls for the bait, and of course, comes up lacking.
Quote: MathExtremist
But I have never seen any dice-influence adherent -- not once, ever -- discuss their success rate or make any attempt to distinguish a "good" throw from a "bad" one. All I read is "my SRR is 19" or "I see a lot of 1s and 6s when my shot is on." That's not good enough, or at least it shouldn't be. If you're willing to publish your attempts at beating the game, at least publish valid, useful information that can be used to tell skill from luck.
One of the many claims that have been made was one great fiction writer wrote he had an SRR of 28! The way he defended that claim for years was he didn't sell anything!
So his thing was if he wasn't selling anything his claim must be true. Well after years of claiming that SRR of 28, he said he made a mistake calculating his SRR. Then there were all of the other outrageous claims he made that started falling by the wayside.
Now, days he is still posting on two of the DI boards selling nothing but BS! The one board allows his BS to be posted so they can sell their on-axis DI classes. I have posted all of the slow-motion videos that I could find on the different craps boards and none of them show any control. Some of them are downright funny. Their dice are bouncing all over the place when they hit the tables.
These guys that are selling their BS can't even come up with a few videos in slow-motion that shows any of their dice staying on axis when they are shooting!
One of the ways that these guys have gotten away with what they have been selling all of these years is by name calling, if anybody questioned what they were saying the were ran off of the DI boards. This practice is still going on!
You will never get anybody that has taken a class from these guys that will say I've been taken! No, they blame it on themselves when it doesn't work out for them! The guys that sold them their class keeps selling them refresher courses, because they know they can blame it on their students that they are doing something wrong. They even have the nerve to charge them a hook-up fee to go to the tables in real live play. Their students are hoping to catch a roll that will pay for their class. Most of the time if there is a good roll that happens it's from one of their lucky students, that are nothing more then a lucky random roller.
Nobody is going to spend a few hours in a class on becoming a DI and then become one. These students should look around the class they are in and take a head count of all those there for a refresher course! They have guys that have taken the same course for years!
Actually, what these on axis schools are selling is nothing more than the good old boy society, where their students keep coming back to take classes and shoot with their heroes! The school provides a craps board so these guys can post on it and keep the good old boy society going!
When you Google craps there are all kinds of people selling just about anything they can on becoming a so-called DI. They have turned DI thing into a business, that can't be proven to work. There are books, DI boards, and guys that will sell you some kind of system that is wrapped around becoming a DI. These guys have plenty of suckers that will never admit to being taken. No, they all failed because they didn't take that next class, or they just didn't practice enough!
You can watch all of the slow-motion videos I put up on this thread. You got to remember that most of these were shot by so-called DI's trying to prove to the world that what they are doing works!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/22578-can-any-one-really-control-the-dice/
The funny thing is that they didn't even look at what they were putting out on the Internet and evaluate what the dice were doing when they hit the tables they were shooting on!
Now I have to give one writer credit when he came out and said that after seeing slow-motion videos of what the dice really do when they hit the tables he had second thoughts about becoming a so-called DI. That author was Stanford Wong, who wrote a book on dice control. His book is still in publication when he made that statement!
At first blush, DI sounds great: in theory it sort of "makes sense," and heck, lots of people say it works, and there are even schools out there that teach it.
Alas, further investigation shows that the DI emperor has no clothes.
Lots of adherants, many firm believers, but at the end of the day DI is a matter of faith: belief without proof.
Quote: MrVLots of adherants, many firm believers, but at the end of the day DI is a matter of faith: belief without proof.
When you combine greed, variance, innumeracy, and confirmation bias, you have fertile ground for convincing certain people that their winning dice-throwing sessions are due to a newly-learned "skill" but their losing sessions are due to old-fashioned bad luck. Exploiting that combination for profit, in the form of selling seminars, is just con artistry.
In truth, if you can't tell the difference between skill and luck, you don't have enough skill to matter. And if you can't tell whether you have the edge, you don't.
Quote: MathExtremistWhen you combine greed, variance, innumeracy, and confirmation bias, you have fertile ground for convincing certain people that their winning dice-throwing sessions are due to a newly-learned "skill" but their losing sessions are due to old-fashioned bad luck. Exploiting that combination for profit, in the form of selling seminars, is just con artistry.
If you can't tell the difference between skill and luck, you don't have enough skill to matter. And if you can't tell whether you have the edge, you don't.
Quote: Ahigh
Ahigh,
I would respectfully request you go back and edit your post to include ME's entire quote. Your snippet reads much harsher than the full post does. We have had some problems with partial quotes in the recent past (up to and including suspensions), and this is an example where you have colored the intent of his post. Thank you.
For the interim, I request readers refer to the actual MathExtremist post directly above.
Quote: beachbumbabsWe have had some problems with partial quotes in the recent past (up to and including suspensions), and this is an example where you have colored the intent of his post.
At least it was in the ballpark. But let's have some fun with liberal partial quotes:
(The words are all there!)Quote: beachbumbabsI ... respect ... the ... past ....
And if you want to get creative with letter rearrangements:
Quote: beachbumbabsI drive a two seat turbo with a harsh suspension
:)
Quote: MathExtremistAt least it was in the ballpark. But let's have some fun with liberal partial quotes:
(The words are all there!)
And if you want to get creative with letter rearrangements:
:)
:)
That last one would be djatc.
Quote: AhighQuote: MathExtremistWhen you combine greed, variance, innumeracy, and confirmation bias, you have fertile ground for convincing certain people that their winning dice-throwing sessions are due to a newly-learned "skill" but their losing sessions are due to old-fashioned bad luck. Exploiting that combination for profit, in the form of selling seminars, is just con artistry.
If you can't tell the difference between skill and luck, you don't have enough skill to matter. And if you can't tell whether you have the edge, you don't.
POW! Back atcha, funny man. Try again. Get all of it this time. Let me assist your effort with legibility.
The smart ones got out or joined the "con artists"Quote: superrickOne of the many claims that have been made was one great fiction writer wrote he had an SRR of 28! The way he defended that claim for years was he didn't sell anything!
So his thing was if he wasn't selling anything his claim must be true. Well after years of claiming that SRR of 28, he said he made a mistake calculating his SRR. Then there were all of the other outrageous claims he made that started falling by the wayside.
Now, days he is still posting on two of the DI boards selling nothing but BS! The one board allows his BS to be posted so they can sell their on-axis DI classes. I have posted all of the slow-motion videos that I could find on the different craps boards and none of them show any control. Some of them are downright funny. Their dice are bouncing all over the place when they hit the tables.
These guys that are selling their BS can't even come up with a few videos in slow-motion that shows any of their dice staying on axis when they are shooting!
One of the ways that these guys have gotten away with what they have been selling all of these years is by name calling, if anybody questioned what they were saying the were ran off of the DI boards. This practice is still going on!
You will never get anybody that has taken a class from these guys that will say I've been taken! No, they blame it on themselves when it doesn't work out for them! The guys that sold them their class keeps selling them refresher courses, because they know they can blame it on their students that they are doing something wrong. They even have the nerve to charge them a hook-up fee to go to the tables in real live play. Their students are hoping to catch a roll that will pay for their class. Most of the time if there is a good roll that happens it's from one of their lucky students, that are nothing more then a lucky random roller.
Nobody is going to spend a few hours in a class on becoming a DI and then become one. These students should look around the class they are in and take a head count of all those there for a refresher course! They have guys that have taken the same course for years!
Actually, what these on axis schools are selling is nothing more than the good old boy society, where their students keep coming back to take classes and shoot with their heroes! The school provides a craps board so these guys can post on it and keep the good old boy society going!
When you Google craps there are all kinds of people selling just about anything they can on becoming a so-called DI. They have turned DI thing into a business, that can't be proven to work. There are books, DI boards, and guys that will sell you some kind of system that is wrapped around becoming a DI. These guys have plenty of suckers that will never admit to being taken. No, they all failed because they didn't take that next class, or they just didn't practice enough!
You can watch all of the slow-motion videos I put up on this thread. You got to remember that most of these were shot by so-called DI's trying to prove to the world that what they are doing works!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/22578-can-any-one-really-control-the-dice/
The funny thing is that they didn't even look at what they were putting out on the Internet and evaluate what the dice were doing when they hit the tables they were shooting on!
Now I have to give one writer credit when he came out and said that after seeing slow-motion videos of what the dice really do when they hit the tables he had second thoughts about becoming a so-called DI. That author was Stanford Wong, who wrote a book on dice control. His book is still in publication when he made that statement!
I feel sorry for some of the rest.
My question is what kind of person are the people who still believe DI works, even after years of evidence to the contrary?
Quote: AxelWolf
I feel sorry for some of the rest.
My question is what kind of person are the people who still believe DI works, even after years of evidence to the contrary?
Thats like saying... My question is what kind of person are the people who still believe a higher being exists, even after years of evidence to the contrary?
I dunno maybe they(we) are regular people? lol DI's are not some monster species from Pluto.
AxelWolf spouting biased and unsubstantiated talk as usual.
You can definitely measure attempts at DI and disprove the success of those attempts. Every videotaped demonstration of which I'm aware has failed to display any statistically significant indication of influence. That doesn't mean that nobody anywhere can pull it off, but it's pretty strong evidence of that.
He's Catholic: I thought that lying is a sin; would a Catholic risk eternal hellfire just to fire up book sales?
Truth, or consequences?
Quote: MathExtremistThat's a pretty big difference, actually. You can't disprove a modern deity because you can't measure or detect it. That's the point of being ineffable. You *can* disprove ancient deist explanations for natural phenomena like sunrise. It's not Apollo and a chariot, etc.
You can definitely measure attempts at DI and disprove the success of those attempts. Every videotaped demonstration of which I'm aware has failed to display any statistically significant indication of influence. That doesn't mean that nobody anywhere can pull it off, but it's pretty strong evidence of that.
You can measure attempts at DI but video footage isn't really measuring? The only evidence i've seen is that On-Axis dice throws don't stay on On-Axis. But even that could be argued that the small sample size of rolls available to view online isnt substantial to prove or disprove anything.
Beyond that it's good to ask what makes a valid piece of evidence? Because every video I've seen online is pretty hoaky at best.
Quote: MrVSo, what about Scoblete's brag about how the Captain and his crew won millions from the casinos by dice setting?
He's Catholic: I thought that lying is a sin; would a Catholic risk eternal hellfire just to fire up book sales?
Truth, or consequences?
True a Catholic especially! JK. He's selling a theory he states is truth and people are buying, just as he was sold into his Religion. If there is no GOD , Frank has nothing to worry about. If Frank is telling the truth he also has nothing to worry about.
In all honesty the only thing we've proven so far are that we all have conflicting views on DI.
I'd like MathExtremist to analyze my most recent dice rolls, after working hard on my technique. I've amassed just over 600 so far on my way to 1,000. The outcome won't prove anything but it will definitely steer me in a certain direction.
Maybe towards Wong or maybe towards Scoblette. Either way there will always be something enticing about the road less traveled.
Quote: MathExtremistVideo footage is definitely measurement: that's why I said every video I've ever seen has failed to display any significant influence. The videorecorded attempts to throw dice on-axis (that I've seen) don't show the dice actually staying on-axis. So far, I have never seen a video of someone's throw where they said beforehand "when I throw the dice, X will happen" and then the video shows X happening. Unless X is "the dice will bounce all over the place and be uncontrolled". In short, we agree. Maybe someone someday will publish a video of the dice repeatably rolling backwards on-axis after hitting the wall, but I've never seen that. Doing that successfully just one in ten times would yield a strong player edge. That's a 90% failure rate, but so far it seems that everyone's failure rate is 100%.
I posted up some raw scrubbable video on here. I could do something like this again if it's helpful to try to show evidence of bias.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/15425-ahighs-autorecord-software/12/#post279688
I would expect you to answer that.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterSuperrick
I would expect you to answer that.
dicesetter
You got to love the guys that are the experts but never play the game, or they play one to three times a year! Funny when you ask about their play they clam up!
You seem to believe that in order to become an expert in a game, you must play it routinely. Bill Belichick never played a day in the NFL and I'd strongly disagree with you if you suggested he wasn't an expert at pro football.Quote: superrickYou got to love the guys that are the experts but never play the game, or they play one to three times a year! Funny when you ask about their play they clam up!
Quote: MathExtremistYou seem to believe that in order to become an expert in a game, you must play it routinely. Bill Belichick never played a day in the NFL and I'd strongly disagree with you if you suggested he wasn't an expert at pro football.
You can't compare craps to football, you need a hands-on experience and a lot of table time to fully understand how the math of the game can turn deadly for any craps player.
Just because the math says the 6's and 8's are one of the best bets on the table, the shooter has to be making them for your best bet to win. The math of the game is for the casinos to see the vig they need to take out of every bet on the table so it will always be a negative game for the players.
The players win by variance and that variance can go terribly wrong for anybody that is just playing the best bets on the table. There are times when the worst bets become the best bets. The dumb players as I'm sure you would call them walkway a winner and the smart ones that are betting the pass line and taking full odds and only betting the 6's and the 8's walk away a loser.
There are days that your math will fail you, and the only thing you can do is walk away a loser if you are only betting the bets that your math tells you to bet. Most craps players that have been playing for any length of time will take what the table is giving them. Sure they know what the math says are the best bets, but if nobody is rolling them they have their chips on the numbers that are being rolled!
It would be so simple if we could read one book on the math of the game then go to the casinos and only bet what it said to bet and because we did we would win every time. But because of variance that will never happen! I have never seen a perfect pyramid where everything worked the way the math said it should, it just doesn't happen.
I have seen the 12 outpace the 6's and 8's when I was there for over a 150 rolls of the dice, all of the shooters were throwing nothing but crap numbers. It's amazing some of the things you see when you track every shooter on the tables you play on!
we now understand that even if this is a craps site, math has not played it and that is why he does not understand
what I have been trying to show him or explain.
I understand completely your point of view in not wanted hucksters to mislead craps players because makes it hard
for everyone, particularly players like you that live in Las Vegas and take all heat that comes when lots of people from
this class or that hit town.
I will try one last time to explain my position.
I don't believe dice "control is possible" that is the type of control that people like Math, that have never played
are looking for. A type of control where you can go to the table anytime you want, on any table you want and
play as long as you want and you have an advantage..........nonsense... that is not possible.
But I know for sure that there is a middle ground between that nonsense and the kind that says no matter how long you
work on your roll, or how decent your shot gets you cant have some influence , though small when your shot is right.
That is a middle ground some folks will never admit exists....
Maths idea of betting $500 is so silly because it takes several times with the dice to get your shot right, buy that time your $10000
in the whole, you get it right but opps your shot location has been taken......now what you start over or take a loss of $10 G's.
Some guys have no idea how hard this is and that is why I say it is best thing to ever happen to a casino...if I owned a casino I
would have a 20 foot sign in front that said dice setters welcome here.....
dicesetter
No you don't.Quote: superrickYou can't compare craps to football, you need a hands-on experience and a lot of table time to fully understand how the math of the game can turn deadly for any craps player.
No there aren't.Quote:There are times when the worst bets become the best bets.
That's not math failing you, that's you getting unlucky. Do you really think it's a blinding flash of insight that if your numbers aren't rolling, you won't win?Quote:There are days that your math will fail you, and the only thing you can do is walk away a loser if you are only betting the bets that your math tells you to bet. Most craps players that have been playing for any length of time will take what the table is giving them. Sure they know what the math says are the best bets, but if nobody is rolling them they have their chips on the numbers that are being rolled!
That's nice. I threw 12 passes in a row once and made several thousand dollars by parlaying a single green chip into stacks of black. Just the other week I threw four passes in a row -- not a huge hand but certainly longer than average -- but I was betting green continuous come, made a bunch of mid-point numbers, and therefore still made nearly a grand. I don't need a little notebook to remember that.Quote:I have seen the 12 outpace the 6's and 8's when I was there for over a 150 rolls of the dice, all of the shooters were throwing nothing but crap numbers. It's amazing some of the things you see when you track every shooter on the tables you play on!
It's a game. Play it. You shouldn't need a golf pencil to enjoy yourself.
There's a pretty good chance that my annual dice action is greater than your annual dice action, but I'm not interested in a bankroll-measuring contest. If you think your long, arduous years sweating over your homemade practice table makes you the be-all, end-all guru of the game, you're entitled to your opinion.Quote: dicesitterwe now understand that even if this is a craps site, math has not played it and that is why he does not understand what I have been trying to show him or explain.
Your position is that somehow you can influence the dice every once in a while. You don't know when that will happen beforehand, you don't know where it will work, and you don't know how long it will last. Except it never lasts very long. But when it happens, you have a slight edge that you can't quantify, but you know it's there. I understand that position.
I also understand that it's all a convenient rationalization for the fact that you can't tell the difference between that fleeting "influence" and simply getting lucky. You'll have hands where it feels like your "shot is on" and others where the dice bounce all over the place. It's a convenient conceit to attribute your winning sessions to "see, my practice is paying off!" and your losing sessions to "oh well, my shot wasn't on" but in reality it's all just random.
The bottom line is that if you were a legitimate craps AP, you'd know what your edge was and you'd understand how to profit from it. The fact that you don't profit -- and don't even know what your edge is -- tells me you're not a legitimate craps AP. So why are you spending all that time practicing?
Let me answer for him, it seems to be his position.Quote: MathExtremistSo why are you spending all that time practicing?
it's better to have tried and failed than to have never tried at all.
So it's like love? I don't think craps is like love. I think craps is a fun random game, sometimes exhilarating, sometimes infuriating. If you try to control it, chances are it'll drive you nuts and you'll end up losing a lot of money.Quote: AxelWolfLet me answer for him, it seems to be his position.
it's better to have tried and failed than to have never tried at all.
... wait, craps *IS* like love!
Pefect songQuote: MathExtremistSo it's like love? I don't think craps is like love. I think craps is a fun random game, sometimes exhilarating, sometimes infuriating. If you try to control it, chances are it'll drive you nuts and you'll end up losing a lot of money.
... wait, craps *IS* like love!
Extract Tawny Kitaen (a sin in any 80's teenage boys eyes) insert a dancing craps table
♪♫Wasted days, and sleepless nights
An' I can't wait to see you again♪♫
Quote: MathExtremistSo it's like love? I don't think craps is like love. I think craps is a fun random game, sometimes exhilarating, sometimes infuriating. If you try to control it, chances are it'll drive you nuts and you'll end up losing a lot of money.
... wait, craps *IS* like love!
Excellent! Worth preserving! Will it fit on my signature line? Yes!
Why thank you, and yes I have my opinion based on hundreds of hours of work.
But again you are so far off in your analysis, I again wonder if you
ever played craps, or at the very least you have no understanding
of what type of bias you would have to play at a casino the way you suggest.
If tiger woods is a great golfer and played 7 days in a row and had a 65, 66, 69 67 68
66 65 you would say now that guy is good and he is consistent....
If you moved that over to the table, you first have to understand to make any
money you have to offset the house advantage and then have an advantage beyond
that.....if you move my example over the craps table and 66 is par on the course and
66 is a break even with the house advantage on the table, you would have won 2 days broke
even 2 days and lost 3 days...
That's why I have tried to tell you ( so far without results) that influence is not constant.
dicesetter
I didn't need to practice for seven years in order to have that hand. I just got lucky.
I can't comprehend why anyone would practice dice shooting for seven years if they don't have the financial means to profit from it. It all seems like such an enormous waste of time. However, it makes perfect sense to me that the sort of person who *would* spend seven years practicing would also find any excuse to justify that waste of time. So you'll invent terrible analogies like how dice shooting is like Tiger Woods' golf game.
You might want to pick a better golfer, though. Tiger missed the cut at three tournaments this year so far.
Invoking Tiger Woods's example brings up images of wanton sex. Maybe the allusion is just evidence of unfulfilled aspirations.Quote: MathExtremistSo you'll invent terrible analogies like how dice shooting is like Tiger Woods' golf game.
