Ahigh
If so, what then would be the point of him recording and examining his rolls, ad infinitum?
It might make sense to cut to the chase and film several self-proclaimed Bone Arrangers, then analyze the findings.
I am the GREATEST SHOOTER THE WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN.
Stick that in your "Ahigh has conceded" pipe and smoke it.
The way I look at it, this whole thing is a game. And for the other "players" out there, I just haven't met anyone that I feel is any REAL competition.
For what it's worth, I can appreciate the shield of saying the best shooter is the late captain or the arm or whatever. But, no, proof or no proof, I haven't met anyone yet who has demonstrated to me what I think is a better shot than I have.
Quote: AhighUsing the Wizard's word, "MEAT," I got the MEAT, and until someone else has MEAT, I can't be BEAT!
I am the GREATEST SHOOTER THE WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN.
Stick that in your "Ahigh has conceded" pipe and smoke it.
The way I look at it, this whole thing is a game. And for the other "players" out there, I just haven't met anyone that I feel is any REAL competition.
For what it's worth, I can appreciate the shield of saying the best shooter is the late captain or the arm or whatever. But, no, proof or no proof, I haven't met anyone yet who has demonstrated to me what I think is a better shot than I have.
You are probably right. But does anyone have a worse shot than you? If you say yes, then you believe you have some control over the dice. If you say no, then everyone has the same shot... random.
ZCore13
You and Frank S are both wrong about who isQuote: AhighFor what it's worth,
I can appreciate the shield of saying the best shooter is the late captain or the arm or whatever. But, no, proof or no proof, I haven't met anyone yet who has demonstrated to me what I think is a better shot than I have.
the best shooter.
Best shooter ever:
Stanley Fujitake is #1.
He did not need to hide or keep himself a secret.
Just take the walkway from the Cal to Main Street Station
and look at the wall
or
you claim to play at the Cal
ask the old timers there about Stanley
A masked shooter, unknown even to Ahigh should work fine for test purposes. Next excuse. (I seem to recall there are already masked people, which seems like a great idea for someone unwilling to be ID'd)
Quote: 7crapsYou and Frank S are both wrong about who is
the best shooter.
Best shooter ever:
Stanley Fujitake is #1.
He did not need to hide or keep himself a secret.
Also passed on, but good point that he has been recognized by a casino.
Given that even the California Casino only measures how long you shoot, it's well known (ask the dealers) that the length of time that passes with each shot gets longer as they get closer to an hour. They aren't all over 100 throws!! Or even 60. I've rolled over 60 with no sevens at all on multiple occasions FWIW, but I shoot a lot. If I only shot at the California as many Hawaiians do, I would be on the wall too.
Quote: IbeatyouracesAnother damn DI thread huh? Mission, Wiz, JB, please put a stop to this garbage!
Why not go back to easy stuff like cards and leave the difficult stuff to others? You need to take a back seat old-school card boy.
Just because you're not up to speed on dice doesn't mean nobody is. Keep your comments on threads where you have something to contribute.
If you're earning a living doing stuff in the casino, I don't blame you for taking the easy path, but no need to talk trash to those who enjoy the game more than the money.
Quote: rxwineGah, can't bear to read the whole thread.
A masked shooter, unknown even to Ahigh should work fine for test purposes. Next excuse. (I seem to recall there are already masked people, which seems like a great idea for someone unwilling to be ID'd)
Yeah, for what it's worth, nobody has stepped up or sent me a PM wanting to demonstrate their shot. I will have snaps of moment of impact with DSLR and video of the shooter releasing the dice in a day or two for the whole package of capturing the evidence.
Coupled with a show, 1GB of real data showing all the details of what happened should be enough for 1000 rolls of the dice.
Until then I am still the best (and the only) shooter with actual data supporting how good I am, and I will be recording my own throws to document whatever I am able to accomplish. If I accomplish something statistically unlikely, all the exact details for how it was accomplished will be recorded.
Something nobody else has ever done.
Not Stanley.
Not the Arm.
Not the Captain.
Not Mad Professor.
Not Heavy.
No "MEAT" as Wizard calls it. Just hype.
My agent insist you lay me 2 to 1 odds as my title will be at risk.
Quote: AhighI'm pretty happy with these results as a first pass! Not looking for comments on the rolls themselves, but I appreciate comments about my accomplishment with the software and programming to do this. The next step it to use the (culled out) data from this video to feed a computer vision algorithm to track the precise movements of each die for proper analysis.
I agree, that's a clever bit of programming. I'd use a less ambitious next step, though: just see if you can optically recognize the results on each die, and where each comes to rest (x/y coordinates). That way you'll be able to tell whether your "good" shots -- the ones that stop close to the wall -- have a different distribution than the ones where dice bounce back 3 feet. Also, I recommend using distinguishable dice so you can determine whether the face distributions are different from your left vs. right. You might also need a custom dice felt with a grid on it (instead of casino graphics) to aid in the location recognition.
If you could do all that, you'd be able to generate CSV files like this:
1st die face, 1st die X coordinate, 1st die Y coordinate, 2nd die face, 2nd die X, 2nd die Y -- where X is left/right of the center of the back wall and Y is distance from it, say in inches.
e.g., your 3rd result, where the 4,1 landed near the back wall, might look like:
4, 8.4, 1.5, 1, 12.3, 1.8
And then you could crunch numbers and look for correlations. I don't think you need to do anything with motion analysis at this point, because if the correlations aren't there, it shouldn't matter.
Quote: MathExtremistI agree, that's a clever bit of programming. I'd use a less ambitious next step, though: just see if you can optically recognize the results on each die, and where each comes to rest (x/y coordinates). That way you'll be able to tell whether your "good" shots -- the ones that stop close to the wall -- have a different distribution than the ones where dice bounce back 3 feet. Also, I recommend using distinguishable dice so you can determine whether the face distributions are different from your left vs. right. You might also need a custom dice felt with a grid on it (instead of casino graphics) to aid in the location recognition.
If you could do all that, you'd be able to generate CSV files like this:
1st die face, 1st die X coordinate, 1st die Y coordinate, 2nd die face, 2nd die X, 2nd die Y -- where X is left/right of the center of the back wall and Y is distance from it, say in inches.
e.g., your 3rd result, where the 4,1 landed near the back wall, might look like:
4, 8.4, 1.5, 1, 12.3, 1.8
And then you could crunch numbers and look for correlations. I don't think you need to do anything with motion analysis at this point, because if the correlations aren't there, it shouldn't matter.
Thank you so much for reading what I wrote and offering constructive direction. Everyone is so busy being a critic, I didn't think anyone would do what you're doing and actually lend a helping hand with direction.
It's a good idea to look at results only, but I don't know how much easier it will be. Once I get it to work on any frame, it should work on all frames. But assuming that the die is on a plane should make the task a little easier, and I didn't think of that. So that's a really good point to focus on the results first.
Nice setup regardless. I'd love to have a craps table at my place.
Quote: AhighUsing the Wizard's word, "MEAT," I got the MEAT, and until someone else has MEAT, I can't be BEAT!
I am the GREATEST SHOOTER THE WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN.
Stick that in your "Ahigh has conceded" pipe and smoke it.
The way I look at it, this whole thing is a game. And for the other "players" out there, I just haven't met anyone that I feel is any REAL competition.
For what it's worth, I can appreciate the shield of saying the best shooter is the late captain or the arm or whatever. But, no, proof or no proof, I haven't met anyone yet who has demonstrated to me what I think is a better shot than I have.
You being able to claim you are the greatest is also facilitated by being the controller, if there were really a competition.
I know of two people that were gearing up for the " SooPoo" challenge before you pulled the plug.
They were also not concerned with public exposure. Not everybody lives in Vegas.
Big fish, small pond.
Quote: AhighThank you so much for reading what I wrote and offering constructive direction. Everyone is so busy being a critic, I didn't think anyone would do what you're doing and actually lend a helping hand with direction.
It's a good idea to look at results only, but I don't know how much easier it will be. Once I get it to work on any frame, it should work on all frames. But assuming that the die is on a plane should make the task a little easier, and I didn't think of that. So that's a really good point to focus on the results first.
I'm not sure of the capability of your camera setup especially as relates to slo-mo frame fidelity. It just seems a far easier image-recognition problem to deal with static, non-blurry images on a plane vs. potentially-blurry images of a cube at any orientation. You may want to consider using different color pips on each die face to make the task easier (e.g., Sharpie), rather than writing code to detect where the white pips are on each face and figuring it out that way. It's a good problem either way, and of course if you solve the general "recognize any die" problem then it's a salable product for use in live gaming operations. That's how you'd facilitate a craps readerboard.
Quote: MathExtremistI'm not sure of the capability of your camera setup especially as relates to slo-mo frame fidelity. It just seems a far easier image-recognition problem to deal with static, non-blurry images on a plane vs. potentially-blurry images of a cube at any orientation. You may want to consider using different color pips on each die face to make the task easier (e.g., Sharpie), rather than writing code to detect where the white pips are on each face and figuring it out that way. It's a good problem either way, and of course if you solve the general "recognize any die" problem then it's a salable product for use in live gaming operations. That's how you'd facilitate a craps readerboard.
One camera is currently set to 1/1500th of a second shutter exposure time, and the other is set to 1/60th. That is the plan. I would do faster but I need more light to do faster without it becoming too dark. That's part of the trick to get all the data -- I have one camera for precise positioning, and another camera for the extrusion of the path that the die took for the frame period.
This was a major keystone to my not needing an expensive slow motion camera to get this data (two cameras, two exposure times).
The idea for a craps readerboard is something that Wayne at the Silverton has specifically asked if I could do for him, and I think he would love to install one. And yes, it would be a fallout (as well as some other cool stuff) of this to be able to have products that are marketable to casinos to help sell bets by showing trends through a display. However, it is VERY easy to have a box man enter the roll data using a bluetooth keyboard and that would be required even if the main key hit is "yes, that is the correct outcome." Some outcomes require quite a bit of human manpower to determine.
Quote: petroglyphBig fish, small pond.
Could be small fish tiny pond. But either way, either you have the data or you don't. I'll take the spoils of being the only one that has the data.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/most-important-skill-21st-century-120538206.html
Quote: AhighCould be small fish tiny pond. But either way, either you have the data or you don't. I'll take the spoils of being the only one that has the data.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/most-important-skill-21st-century-120538206.html
My mistake, I thought you were talking about your dice throwing ability.
Quote: petroglyphMy mistake, I thought you were talking about your dice throwing ability.
Let me be clear for anyone who's still confused (I don't blame you, I haven't been really clear).
I am the greatest shooter who has published his data in detail because I think I'm the only one!
My RSR is above 6.0 for a 4242 set, so I'm better than average. But I imagine half the shooters are.
I would love for someone with a RSR of 7.0 to 8.0 to demonstrate a couple thousand rolls with that RSR. I think JB85 has data saying he's done a 7.0 for 1000 rolls.
But until you get video and/or some way to prove beyond reasonable doubt that you actually did it, I'm in a small group of people who've done the work to get the data available.
I can easily build a computer so that anyone can set up and do all this same stuff for a couple of bucks. The total cost is less than what I see some shooters make on a single throw at the Wynn.
I have to be careful, actually. I think JB85's data is way better than mine. But he still lacks video.
Anybody who wants to do this just needs a real craps table and about $600 to $1000 worth of cameras. You can send the digital files to me and I can run it through my software. The trickiest part is setting the shutter speeds for at least two cameras to get all the data showing how the dice are bouncing for your shot.
With it being automated, it's not that much work to get the edited video today, and as soon as it's working the software will crunch all the details. The only thing you have to tell me is what set you are using and use the same set for each throw so we can just look at your throw isolated.
Quote: AhighLet me be clear for anyone who's still confused (I don't blame you, I haven't been really clear).
I am the greatest shooter who has published his data in detail because I think I'm the only one!
My RSR is above 6.0 for a 4242 set, so I'm better than average. But I imagine half the shooters are.
I would love for someone with a RSR of 7.0 to 8.0 to demonstrate a couple thousand rolls with that RSR. I think JB85 has data saying he's done a 7.0 for 1000 rolls.
But until you get video and/or some way to prove beyond reasonable doubt that you actually did it, I'm in a small group of people who've done the work to get the data available.
I can easily build a computer so that anyone can set up and do all this same stuff for a couple of bucks. The total cost is less than what I see some shooters make on a single throw at the Wynn.
I have to be careful, actually. I think JB85's data is way better than mine. But he still lacks video.
Well put, Ahigh
It looks like what you put together has a lot of potential.
It seems communication becomes more difficult in our binary transition.
Just an observation by an analog man in a digital world.
And of course correlation doesn't prove causation.
Quote: AhighUsing the Wizard's word, "MEAT," I got the MEAT, and until someone else has MEAT, I can't be BEAT!
I am the GREATEST SHOOTER THE WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN.
Stick that in your "Ahigh has conceded" pipe and smoke it.
The way I look at it, this whole thing is a game. And for the other "players" out there, I just haven't met anyone that I feel is any REAL competition.
For what it's worth, I can appreciate the shield of saying the best shooter is the late captain or the arm or whatever. But, no, proof or no proof, I haven't met anyone yet who has demonstrated to me what I think is a better shot than I have.
Well, that means we have to dismiss the "researcher" in him.
I guess we can also add: poster of links to drive traffic to his own website.
Too bad. I thought he was coming around.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWell, that means we have to dismiss the "researcher" in him.
I guess we can also add: poster of links to drive traffic to his own website.
Too bad. I thought he was coming around.
Hey, "reporter" why do you put "researcher" in quotes. Your "reporting" is weak. My "research" is strong.
Why not do a "report" on the "benefits" of a $5 horn high ace-deuce?
Quote: AhighHey, "reporter" why do you put "researcher" in quotes. Your "reporting" is weak. My "research" is strong.
Why not do a "report" on the "benefits" of a $5 horn high ace-deuce?
What is it that makes you think your research is strong? Your equipment is strong. Your research has accomplished nothing as far as I can tell. What have I missed that your research has found out?
ZCore13
Quote: AhighHey, "reporter" why do you put "researcher" in quotes. Your "reporting" is weak. My "research" is strong.
Why not do a "report" on the "benefits" of a $5 horn high ace-deuce?
If you are going to "research" then research. Put your ego and your personal claims on the shelf.
As soon as you brand yourself as a great shooter any evidence or system that you come up with will be discounted as an attempt to only back up your own claims. Wouldn't you rather get your system accepted first and then once accepted use it to prove your ability? Or do you want your system to be challenged and not accepted because it will be viewed as something only to validate your own claims?
You are very controversial. You have run into trouble at various casinos and with two casino companies that I know of -- and possibly more. You have made claims about your own abilities that have been challenged by many. But now you come up with a system and technology that could be beneficial and might help you prove your claims. Yet, you can't separate "Ahigh the great" from "Ahigh the researcher" and while "Ahigh the researcher" might be on the verge of presenting something that can be universally accepted, "Ahigh the great" could prevent it from being accepted.
In other words... do you yourself a favor and quit the Ahigh the great talk and get your system "sold" to the dice public.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWell, that means we have to dismiss the "researcher" in him.
I guess we can also add: poster of links to drive traffic to his own website.
Too bad. I thought he was coming around.
It must be the eternal optimist in me?
For a while there it looked like maybe you both were coming around, it was pleasant for the non pugilists.
Credit where do here. No where in that post quoted is a reference to another site.
I thought earlier you might be a contender in the dice challenge, heck I was going to put money on you even though I know you deny any ability to influence.
I know it's chump change to you guys but I got the first ten bucks that says Alan outshoots Ahigh.
Quote: Zcore13Your research has accomplished nothing as far as I can tell.
I can't disagree about what you can't tell. The revealing part of your statement relates to your inability to tell.
Quote: petroglyphI know it's chump change to you guys but I got the first ten bucks that says Alan outshoots Ahigh.
The spirit of the claim that I am the best is to bring on some competition.
So far, we have two people wearing masks and only one of them shot.
Then we had Nickolay who disappeared.
There are no contenders because everyone is so scared! So I'm the best!
There ya go. If you don't get it, you don't get it. But the truth is that it's easy to be the best when everybody is too scared to do even 200 throws to see if they can beat my personal record for a 200 roll session.
Anybody know what my best RSR is for 200 rolls? Anybody know what their best RSR is for 200 rolls?
We were doing this for a while, and the challenge to do a decent RSR in 200 throws is a good one.
Nobody who will reveal their identity has beaten the SOOPOO challenge with evidence except me.
Nobody.
Having 200 of your best throws with captured and automatically edited video is not worth anyone that lives in fantasy land about their shooting. They don't want to come down to reality.
But Alan? Yeah, let's see what Alan could do in 200 rolls. Maybe 6.25? 6.06 maybe? LOL. The truth would probably hurt!!!!
Quote: AhighThe spirit of the claim that I am the best is to bring on some competition.
So far, we have two people wearing masks and only one of them shot.
Then we had Nickolay who disappeared.
There are no contenders because everyone is so scared! So I'm the best!
There ya go. If you don't get it, you don't get it. But the truth is that it's easy to be the best when everybody is too scared to do even 200 throws to see if they can beat my personal record for a 200 roll session.
Anybody know what my best RSR is for 200 rolls? Anybody know what their best RSR is for 200 rolls?
We were doing this for a while, and the challenge to do a decent RSR in 200 throws is a good one.
Nobody who will reveal their identity has beaten the SOOPOO challenge with evidence except me
Nobody.
See, that's one of the downfalls of the digital age, everybody expects instant gratification.
Build it and they will come, man. Is the " show" back up?
Once Alan sees there's money in it, he could be a challenger.
If the ten bucks wont lure him out I could throw in a box of wine.
Of course if you paid to attend one of their seminars on Bone Arranging I suspect they'd take you and your proposal more seriously.
In the spirit of gambling research, why not take attend a seminar and then induce your teacher(s) to come to your table for a bit of televised / recorded craps play?
They could even wear a gorilla suit.
Quote: MrVI wonder if any of the GTC boys would take you up on it?
Of course if you paid to attend one of their seminars on Bone Arranging I suspect they'd take you and your proposal more seriously.
In the spirit of gambling research, why not take attend a seminar and then induce your teacher(s) to come to your table for a bit of televised / recorded craps play?
They could even wear a gorilla suit.
Those gorilla suits are pretty hot MrV.
If the golden boys don't show, don't you have some rapport with Heavy?
Quote: AhighThe spirit of the claim that I am the best is to bring on some competition.
So far, we have two people wearing masks and only one of them shot.
Then we had Nickolay who disappeared.
Yeah, Nickolay was great. An enjoyable and game young man.
I hope he's not stuck over there imbedded in some stupid card craps game.
And if you dont want to play craps, but if you are in the area, stop around and I will buy you a beer. We have both busted on each other and at times it has been beyond civil, but it shouldnt be that way.
Again I do respect the dedication you have to what you believe in, I just dont believe the same as you do on this subject.
Oh yea, I know if we did this it would prove NOTHING, but we both like to play Craps, so at least we could share the experience on this forum to others.
Quote: petroglyphNo where in that post quoted is a reference to another site.
He posted links to his videos on his site.
Quote: AhighBut Alan? Yeah, let's see what Alan could do in 200 rolls. Maybe 6.25? 6.06 maybe? LOL. The truth would probably hurt!!!!
Let me tell you the truth, and I hope it doesn't hurt you too much: I make NO claims about any ability to control or influence dice.
Quote: AlanMendelsonHe posted links to his videos on his site.
Not trying to argue. Sure if someone looks around there are links but not in the post you quoted.
It would be great to see you give it your best shot, what's the worst that could happen?
The ten dollar offer and the box of wine still stand.
I don't know what his rsr is, but your a good tosser and you never know ole variance might land on you.
Just think how hard it would be for Ahigh if you win. The prize for winning far outweighs the cost of losing.
Quote: AlanMendelsonLet me tell you the truth, and I hope it doesn't hurt you too much: I make NO claims about any ability to control or influence dice.
Exactly. That would make a win all the more precious.
Score one for the Randies of the world.
Quote: AlanMendelsonBOZ I could be at Caesars this week for a "shoot out." Let me know. Whatever "test" there is I want on a casino table, using casino dice, with chips and players present.
In town Thurs through Monday, but have Jimmy Buffet concert Sat night. Otherwise we could fit something in, perhaps in an afternoon. Either way I will be playing mostly at Paris, but easily could walk over to CP.
Quote: AhighAnybody know what my best RSR is for 200 rolls? Anybody know what their best RSR is for 200 rolls?
We were doing this for a while, and the challenge to do a decent RSR in 200 throws is a good one.
No it's not. The difference between an RSR of 6 and even something as large as 7 is not distinguishable in only 200 throws. The mean number of 7s for each distribution (33.3 and 28.6, respectively) is within 1SD of each other. You'd need many more throws to begin to conclude with reasonable confidence that one shooter wasn't just luckier.
Quote: BozIn town Thurs through Monday, but have Jimmy Buffet concert Sat night. Otherwise we could fit something in, perhaps in an afternoon. Either way I will be playing mostly at Paris, but easily could walk over to CP.
I certainly could meet you at Paris and I happen to like their tables. I could even meet in the middle of the night or early morning if it is what is needed for all parties.
Quote: petroglyphIf the golden boys don't show, don't you have some rapport with Heavy?
Well, I did buy a Hawaiian shirt he was selling.
But other than that: I suspect if given the choice of hitting or swerving to miss me, he'd be hard pressed to choose.
And who could blame him?
Quote: MathExtremistYou'd need many more throws to begin to conclude with reasonable confidence that one shooter wasn't just luckier.
I am going to have to disagree. RSRs and SRRs mean nothing if you are rolling numbers that your money is not on; it also means nothing without real betting conditions because you want 7s to show up on come outs. In fact, you need to have two RSRs and two SRRs -- one for come outs and one for when points are established.
Keeping track of a RSR or SRR on a home table or a home practice rig without actual bets and actual play is a meaningless number.
Quote: MrVWell, I did buy a Hawaiian shirt he was selling.
But other than that: I suspect if given the choice of hitting or swerving to miss me, he'd be hard pressed to choose.
And who could blame him?
I have no knowledge of your history's.
The not swerving part I hope was occupational humor?
I will certainly leave it lay.
Quote: BozHere is the Boz challenge which is so simple because it is straight forward. I will be in Vegas later this week. Come down to the mid strip and you pick the CZR casino table and play whatever or however you want. I will be DP full odds against you. I am at a natural odds disadvantage because it is CRAPS. You, I am not sure about, but since I feel everyones shot everytime is random, I like my chances. Hell we may even both make money based on how you bet and throw. I just like my chances. We talked about this before and you stated you were not familiar with those tables and wanted me to ride with you somewhere. Nothing against you, but it is not something I am confortable with, not with you, not with anyone I personally dont know.
And if you dont want to play craps, but if you are in the area, stop around and I will buy you a beer. We have both busted on each other and at times it has been beyond civil, but it shouldnt be that way.
Again I do respect the dedication you have to what you believe in, I just dont believe the same as you do on this subject.
Oh yea, I know if we did this it would prove NOTHING, but we both like to play Craps, so at least we could share the experience on this forum to others.
It proves something: it proves you're interested to play a game and have a good time. I am a gamer and I love games. My betting strategy is certainly something you can bet the opposite of, and I will stay on the pass, don't pass, come, and don't come just so that we can be polar opposites. I really like this idea of a challenge because you get almost free dealer service, free drinks, and collectively we are probably going to lose between $0 and $40 for however long we play.
My choice would be the Flamingo or the Rio. I prefer to play when the tables are as empty as possible just to maximize the amount of time that I have control of the dice. If you can work with me on when would be best for that, it would be appreciated. I spend a lot of time at the craps table waiting for conditions to be ideal when it's busy, and most CZR properties at the times that people are visiting from out of town in general (by definition, really) are busy. But if the table is full, I have no problems waiting for the dice without betting if you're okay with that. But it can get boring.
I'm going to try harder now that I have p-values built-in. I have been thinking of charting the p-values for a rolling window of samples as well to try to hone in on possible areas that might not be random for inspecting the video.
The p-values and even the total number of hardways for this session are unremarkable according to the p-values. This is 204 throws that together don't look all that special.
I think everyone already suggested that these hardway throws were pure luck and bouncing all over the place. I suppose that the math backs that up here.
Using set 6262 starting at roll 1
43`51`21`42`41`32`65`61`61`21`63`36`35`14`42`51`36`63`44`34`21`51`24`61`43`41`21`32`33`34
13`54`33`53`62`55`64`15`52`31`31`36`21`62`26`15`31`51`35`25`52`61`41`62`61`53`33`54`53`36
66`54`21`44`32`45`52`43`54`64`64`12`11`55`16`65`26`64`64`21`64`16`63`53`61`13`53`42`23`52
62`43`43`32`66`65`66`21`23`65`43`55`61`21`53`64`65`45`43`32`64`32`56`41`56`64`31`41`66`22
36`66`65`35`21`16`43`53`51`33`61`54`43`52`31`55`23`65`41`56`53`55`66`41`52`53`41`21`11`52
42`21`43`42`52`32`61`11`11`31`62`51`62`44`22`55`55`22`31`33`44`55`55`21`54`41`62`21`65`63
21`23`55`22`41`52`52`21`21`43`42`41`62`11`61`54`22`62`42`53`53`54`31`52
No bets
Total rolls: 204
1) 71 17.40% - 16.67 = (+0.74)----------------------------------------------------- 1
2) 70 17.16% - 16.67 = (+0.49)---------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 67 16.42% - 16.67 = (-0.25)-------------------------------------------------- 3
4) 60 14.71% - 16.67 = (-1.96)--------------------------------------------- 4
5) 75 18.38% - 16.67 = (+1.72)-------------------------------------------------------- 5
6) 65 15.93% - 16.67 = (-0.74)------------------------------------------------ 6
X**2: 2.00 p: 0.84914
fw 71,70,67,60,75,65 71,70,67,60,75,65
11: ----- 2 (5)
12: --------- 3 (9)
21: --------- 3 (9)
13: ----- 4 (5)
22: ----- 4 (5)
31: ----- 4 (5)
14: ------ 5 (6)
23: ------ 5 (6)
32: ----- 5 (5)
41: ------ 5 (6)
15: ---- 6 (4)
24: ---- 6 (4)
33: ----- 6 (5)
42: ---- 6 (4)
51: ---- 6 (4)
16: ------ 7 (6)
25: ----- 7 (5)
34: ------ 7 (6)
43: ------- 7 (7)
52: ------- 7 (7)
61: ------- 7 (7)
26: ----- 8 (5)
35: ------- 8 (7)
44: ---- 8 (4)
53: ------- 8 (7)
62: ------ 8 (6)
36: ---- 9 (4)
45: ----- 9 (5)
54: ----- 9 (5)
63: ----- 9 (5)
46: ---- 10 (4)
55: ---------- 10 (10)
64: ----- 10 (5)
56: ----- 11 (5)
65: ------ 11 (6)
66: ------ 12 (6)
X**2: 13.41 p: 0.99963
Killing -3372
2) 5 2.45% - 2.78% = -0.33% (-0.67)-------- 2
3) 18 8.82% - 5.56% = 3.27% (+6.67)--------------------------- 3
4) 15 7.35% - 8.33% = -0.98% (-2.00)----------------------- 4
5) 23 11.27% - 11.11% = 0.16% (+0.33)---------------------------------- 5
6) 21 10.29% - 13.89% = -3.59% (-7.33)------------------------------- 6
7) 38 18.63% - 16.67% = 1.96% (+4.00)-------------------------------------------------------- 7
8) 29 14.22% - 13.89% = 0.33% (+0.67)------------------------------------------- 8
9) 19 9.31% - 11.11% = -1.80% (-3.67)---------------------------- 9
10) 19 9.31% - 8.33% = 0.98% (+2.00)----------------------------10
11) 11 5.39% - 5.56% = -0.16% (-0.33)-----------------11
12) 6 2.94% - 2.78% = 0.16% (+0.33)---------12
X**2: 7.48 p: 0.67926
4:7 ratio is 39.474% - 50.000% = -10.526% (-21.05% diff)
5:7 ratio is 60.526% - 66.667% = -6.140% (-9.21% diff)
6:7 ratio is 55.263% - 83.333% = -28.070% (-33.68% diff)
8:7 ratio is 76.316% - 83.333% = -7.018% (-8.42% diff)
9:7 ratio is 50.000% - 66.667% = -16.667% (-25.00% diff)
10:7 ratio is 50.000% - 50.000% = +0.000% (+0.00% diff)
X**2: 3.36 p: 0.76253
Observed: 38.0 sevens - 166.0 non sevens RSR 5.3684
Expected: 34.0 sevens - 170.0 non sevens RSR 6.0000
X**2: 0.56 p: 0.45237
Seven outs 23 (60.53%) - Seven winners 15 (39.47%)
Pairs 35 17.16% - 16.67% = 0.49% (+1.00 rolls)
Hards 24 11.76% - 11.11% = 0.65% (+1.33 rolls)
HiLos 11 5.39% - 5.56% = -0.16% (-0.33 rolls)
H2 5/2 ( 2.45% - 2.78% = -0.67)
H4 5/2 ( 2.45% - 2.78% = -0.67)
H6 5/2 ( 2.45% - 2.78% = -0.67)
H8 4/1 ( 1.96% - 2.78% = -1.67)
H10 10/2 ( 4.90% - 2.78% = +4.33)
H12 6/1 ( 2.94% - 2.78% = +0.33)
EZ: 169 (82.84% - 83.33% = -1.00)
X**2: 4.06 p: 0.66792
FFTW home page
It might also be interesting to look at the spectrograph of the dice hitting the felt to see if there is any details of how the touchdown occurred.
I have already noticed that there is a variety of volume levels of hits more than I would have expected.
Quote: Ahigh
Using set 6262 starting at roll 1
43`51`21`42`41`32`65`61`61`21`63`36`35`14`42`51`36`63`44`34`21`51`24`61`43`41`21`32`33`34
13`54`33`53`62`55`64`15`52`31`31`36`21`62`26`15`31`51`35`25`52`61`41`62`61`53`33`54`53`36
66`54`21`44`32`45`52`43`54`64`64`12`11`55`16`65`26`64`64`21`64`16`63`53`61`13`53`42`23`52
62`43`43`32`66`65`66`21`23`65`43`55`61`21`53`64`65`45`43`32`64`32`56`41`56`64`31`41`66`22
36`66`65`35`21`16`43`53`51`33`61`54`43`52`31`55`23`65`41`56`53`55`66`41`52`53`41`21`11`52
42`21`43`42`52`32`61`11`11`31`62`51`62`44`22`55`55`22`31`33`44`55`55`21`54`41`62`21`65`63
21`23`55`22`41`52`52`21`21`43`42`41`62`11`61`54`22`62`42`53`53`54`31`52
The first thing I look for is the number of "7s" that are rolled and I ask myself were there enough rolls between the appearance of 7s that I would make money with the number of bets that are "hit" before a 7-out?
The second thing I look for is the number of "repeaters" before a "7-out" to determine if there are enough repeaters to allow a come bettor to make a profit?
So, I separated your rolls to simulate actual hands at a craps game (ending in the point being made or a 7-out) and here is what I found. These rolls are from the come out to the seven out or the point made:
43` PASS MADE
51`21`42` PASS MADE
41`32`65`61` SEVEN OUT
61` PASS MADE
21`63`36` PASS MADE
35`14`42`51`36`63` 44` PASS MADE
34` PASS MADE
21`51`24` PASS MADE
61` PASS MADE
43` PASS MADE
41`21`32` PASS MADE
33`34 SEVEN OUT
13`54`33`53`62`55`64`15`52` SEVEN OUT
31`31` PASS MADE
36`21`62`26`15`31`51`35`25` SEVEN OUT
52` PASS MADE
61` PASS MADE
41`62`61` SEVEN OUT
53`33`54`53` PASS MADE
36 66`54`21`44`32`45` PASS MADE
52` PASS MADE
43` PASS MADE
54`64`64`12`11`55`16` SEVEN OUT
65` PASS MADE
26`64`64`21`64`16` SEVEN OUT
63`53`61` SEVEN OUT
13`53`42`23`52 SEVEN OUT
62`43` SEVEN OUT
43` PASS MADE
32`66`65`66`21`23` PASS MADE
65` PASS MADE
43` PASS MADE
55`61` SEVEN OUT
21`53`64`65`45`43` SEVEN OUT
32`64`32`56`41` PASS MADE
56` PASS MADE
64`31`41`66`22 36`66`65`35`21`16` SEVEN OUT
43` PASS MADE
53`51`33`61` SEVEN OUT
54`43` SEVEN OUT
52` PASS MADE
31`55`23`65`41`56`53`55`66`41`52` SEVEN OUT
53`41`21`11`52 SEVEN OUT
42`21`43` SEVEN OUT
42`52` SEVEN OUT
32`61` SEVEN OUT
11`11`31`62`51`62`44`22`55`55`22`31` PASS MADE
33`44`55`55`21`54`41`62`21`65`63 21`23`55`22`41`52` SEVEN OUT
52` PASS MADE
21`21`43` PASS MADE AFTER TWO CRAPS ON THE COME OUT
42`41`62`11`61` SEVEN OUT
54`22`62`42`53`53`54` PASS MADE
31`52 SEVEN OUT
In all you had 53 simulated hands, and of the 53 you had passes (either making the point or by rolling a natural) 29 times. So you could be "rated" as an about 50% shooter when it comes to making your pass.
The next thing I want to do is apply these "hands" to my actual betting pattern to determine if I made or lost money.
(EDITED TO CORRECT HAND COUNT)
