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Ahigh
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October 12th, 2013 at 10:14:35 PM permalink
Here's my first test! These files are only 3.88MB and 2.5MB and was 100% automatically generated by my own custom software with no other video editing. The software I wrote listens to the dice hitting the felt to know when to start and stop the recording. All I have to do is shoot dice and the computer automatically creates edited videos for me without all the extra stuff like me fetching the dice and so on.




You are looking at two views from two cameras both of which were automatically recorded and edited simultaneously in real time (meaning I can do instant slow motion replay and review of initial touch of dice to the felt without touching any controls). And I can do this for up to five cameras at the same time.

I plan to have one camera on high speed shutter and one camera on full exposure shutter to get both precise positioning from high speed shutter and in-between frame positioning with the full shutter camera.

With support for up to five cameras in real-time I can also do close-up landing zone cameras with instant analysis for precise position of dice on landing.

I'm pretty happy with these results as a first pass! Not looking for comments on the rolls themselves, but I appreciate comments about my accomplishment with the software and programming to do this. The next step it to use the (culled out) data from this video to feed a computer vision algorithm to track the precise movements of each die for proper analysis.
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rainman
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October 12th, 2013 at 10:24:12 PM permalink
I don't see anything? Push play nothing but black screen. I have a new laptop so I don't know if it's on your end or mine.
beachbumbabs
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October 12th, 2013 at 10:27:18 PM permalink
rainman, and ahigh

I clicked the first link, and had a black screen as well, but at the very bottom, there's a video playback line. I clicked on the "play" arrow on the left end, and it played, but it was just a white screen, no images, while the slider moved from left to right. It took about 8 seconds.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ahigh
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October 12th, 2013 at 10:29:33 PM permalink
Alright guys, I uploaded them to you tube so they would be easier to view. Thanks for the feedback. The original files are higher quality than the representation of them on youtube though. Part of the accomplishment is also getting a very small file in MP4 format that is very high quality. But I guess you can just take my word for it that the quality level is really high for such a small video file if you have the right video codec on your computer to view them.
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AxelWolf
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October 12th, 2013 at 10:40:53 PM permalink
Very cool..... video worked fine for me. Possibly now Alan will get his one just one shot of a controlled throw he so desperately asks for from you.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
petroglyph
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October 12th, 2013 at 11:12:19 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Alright guys, I uploaded them to you tube so they would be easier to view. Thanks for the feedback. The original files are higher quality than the representation of them on youtube though. Part of the accomplishment is also getting a very small file in MP4 format that is very high quality. But I guess you can just take my word for it that the quality level is really high for such a small video file if you have the right video codec on your computer to view them.




I don't even know what you said but I want it.

Is the casio connection hard wired or Wi-Fi?

Nice work.
cowboy
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October 12th, 2013 at 11:50:20 PM permalink
Well, at the very least, you can donate those videos to the Wizard to fix the look of his dice on his new improved craps game. :)
Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 12:08:59 AM permalink
Here's 1/6th speed and I got the audio in there too. I can automatically generate these slow motion versions at any speed for playback. And the cool thing is that the file size doesn't get bigger with the slow motion versions. It just sets the value for the framerate to a lower setting, and it's almost the exact same file.

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AlanMendelson
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October 13th, 2013 at 12:14:29 AM permalink
Very interesting.

question: you mention that the cameras and recording are triggered by the sound of the dice hitting the table. can this work on a table with more padding or with dice that hit softly and do not generate the sound of a "hit" ? How quiet must background sounds be to not give the software a false alarm? what triggers your program to stop recording and to make the edit?

another question: what are you going to do with this? who really needs a comprehensive video record of their rolls?
Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 12:31:43 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Very interesting.

question: you mention that the cameras and recording are triggered by the sound of the dice hitting the table. can this work on a table with more padding or with dice that hit softly and do not generate the sound of a "hit" ? How quiet must background sounds be to not give the software a false alarm? what triggers your program to stop recording and to make the edit?



Right now I use magic numbers that are tuned to my table in a quiet environment.

Quote: AlanMendelson

another question: what are you going to do with this? who really needs a comprehensive video record of their rolls?



Save time editing. I need it.
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Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:35:36 AM permalink
If anyone wants to give me some more feedback, curious if this plays correctly. Hopefully this works on both apple and windows without any custom codecs.

I'm still learning about some of the details of various codecs.

http://www.goodshooter.com/ahigh/mp4/testcam1.mp4
http://www.goodshooter.com/ahigh/mp4/testcam2.mp4

This shows a single shot from two different cameras. The first is with a high speed shutter for accurate sampling of the exact position at one instant in time. The second camera has a full shutter exposure which allows visualization of where the dice moved in between the two frames.

Part of my idea of what I'm doing is to capture the path of the dice using multiple cameras instead of a very high speed camera. Using different exposure times on multiple cameras is part of what I am testing. The next step is computer vision to extract the exact 3d position, velocity, angular position, and angular velocity for each frame of the video.
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beachbumbabs
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:50:39 AM permalink
Ahigh,

These played perfectly via Quicktime (I'm on Windows Vista) with very little download/buffer time. Pretty neat. It's going to be interesting if you can, say, map a face and follow it around during the toss and bounce.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
rainman
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:51:05 AM permalink
Plays fine for me, however the quality doesn't appear better than your two youtube ones.
AlanMendelson
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:56:26 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


Part of my idea of what I'm doing is to capture the path of the dice using multiple cameras instead of a very high speed camera. Using different exposure times on multiple cameras is part of what I am testing. The next step is computer vision to extract the exact 3d position, velocity, angular position, and angular velocity for each frame of the video.



This is very interesting. And the big question is how will you use this information and what will it tell you as part of your research? Specifically why do you want to "extract the exact 3d position, velocity, angular position, and angular velocity"? Such information will tell you exactly what?

An explanation now will help us understand your research. We just need to know what you are researching.
Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:57:30 AM permalink
Quote: rainman

Plays fine for me, however the quality doesn't appear better than your two youtube ones.



The darker result is because I am setting the shutter speed to 1/3000th of a second. So it's a tradeoff having it be darker but the least amount of blur possible.

The you tube videos were both full exposure and that increases the color quality dramatically. I may go with 1/1000th of a second shutter speed just so it doesn't look so dark. I have an ungodly amount of light in there and I was hoping to get 1/10,000th a second exposure time, but 1/3000th is the fastest usable result.
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Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:02:51 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

This is very interesting. And the big question is how will you use this information and what will it tell you as part of your research? Specifically why do you want to "extract the exact 3d position, velocity, angular position, and angular velocity"? Such information will tell you exactly what?

An explanation now will help us understand your research. We just need to know what you are researching.



Right now I am focusing on the ability to gather all possible data in the most compact and detailed description possible. Over-engineering is a goal. I don't want to use this stuff and not have all the data that I want. I just want to collect as much information as possible without burning petabytes of storage that's impossible to search.

I'm learning, and that's a big goal.
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AlanMendelson
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October 13th, 2013 at 11:34:47 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Right now I am focusing on the ability to gather all possible data in the most compact and detailed description possible. Over-engineering is a goal. I don't want to use this stuff and not have all the data that I want. I just want to collect as much information as possible without burning petabytes of storage that's impossible to search.

I'm learning, and that's a big goal.



Well, may I suggest this: if you are really able to follow exact dice faces during a toss and bounce and roll then you will actually be able to prove if someone actually controls the dice. You will be able to prove "control" because if truly controlled there would be a distinct pattern to the dice and how the face shows during its path to its final ending point.

In other words, if someone claims to be able to throw boxcars, you will be able to see if the throw follows a pattern that ends up in boxcars, or if boxcars occur through different rotations and changes in the high faces of the dice. To put it simply: you will be able to trace the footsteps of the dice to where the dice died.

This would become the ultimate test of dice control (or influencing) and would make all of the math systems moot and meaningless.

I hope you can pull it off without a NASA-sized budget.
beachbumbabs
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October 13th, 2013 at 11:59:29 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Well, may I suggest this: if you are really able to follow exact dice faces during a toss and bounce and roll then you will actually be able to prove if someone actually controls the dice. You will be able to prove "control" because if truly controlled there would be a distinct pattern to the dice and how the face shows during its path to its final ending point.

In other words, if someone claims to be able to throw boxcars, you will be able to see if the throw follows a pattern that ends up in boxcars, or if boxcars occur through different rotations and changes in the high faces of the dice. To put it simply: you will be able to trace the footsteps of the dice to where the dice died.

This would become the ultimate test of dice control (or influencing) and would make all of the math systems moot and meaningless.

I hope you can pull it off without a NASA-sized budget.



Alan,

This is what I was thinking, as well. The software to do this already exists; Pixar, Dreamworks, and other animators use it all the time to animate a cartooned still figure or to map a live-action figure into a green-screen animation. The software level to map a single face by the pips, or in this case 2 faces, wherever they appear, would be a very simple overlay in comparison. I haven't researched the availability at all, but it's been used for almost 20 years now, and I would guess there's commercially available software for animators on both a professional and amateur (which I would think was much less expensive but sufficient for Ahigh's purposes) level. It should be set up where he uploads raw video into the CGI shell, can freeze-frame and map the face to teach the program what to look for, and then any video he runs in the shell should look for that shape and be able to track it in all frames. The same software would allow him to overlay a diagram with reference to his map, where he could draw an axis line, collect metrics, or isolate the animation once mapped (take out the video and have a diagrammatic playback) that can be examined at any speed.

Really interested to see if this goes in that direction.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
EvenBob
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October 13th, 2013 at 12:02:50 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

you will actually be able to prove if someone actually controls the dice.



Yeah, well, the only people in the world you have
to convince is the craps pit because they're the
only ones who pay real money when you actually do it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
cowboy
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October 13th, 2013 at 12:57:29 PM permalink
Played fine for me in Quicktime (PC running XP) and I thought on my screen they looked much better and sharper than the youtube ones.

I really didn't see much difference in what it looked like the dice were doing between the two videos though.

All and all it's a neat accomplishment!
Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 1:30:50 PM permalink
This explains the motion capture portion of the design for those who are curious. The automatic recording is just one component of the overall system. Using multiple cameras and multiple shutter speeds is just a way to get more precise 3d position data and also the movements between each frame. This video was filmed over three months ago, and my idea to do this is from a very long time ago. It's just taken time to get it all done in my free cycles outside of work and other commitments.



This video shows some of the equipment setup.



It won't really click what I'm doing until I can show the instant replay through my OpenGL drawing routines with a 3d model for the craps table. Basically it will look like a video game, but the motion of the dice won't be simulated. It will be captured, for every roll. And the data from the capture will be available for analysis.

The Wizard has stated that the reason the possibility to get a player edge in craps is unproven is because nobody has done the work to provide the data.

I'm doing the work.
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7craps
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October 13th, 2013 at 2:16:21 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The Wizard has stated that the reason the possibility to get a player edge in craps is unproven
is because nobody has done the work to provide the data.

Where does the Wizard state this?

Frank S already proved it (dice control) way before Smart Craps came about.
He proved it from his dice rolls only.
What other proof is needed?

Stanford Wong also already proved the possibility in his book
http://www.bj21.com/advantageplay/craps/wongondice.shtml
also made a free Excel workbook named Dice Tool.
looks to do what your software does

"Wong on Dice is about throwing dice in a manner that achieves outcomes that differ from random.
If the dice are tossed in a manner acceptable to the casino,
the differences from random will be small."

"The most you can realistically hope for is to reduce the frequency of certain dice outcomes.
You won't be able to call your shots.
But you should be able to reduce the frequency of sevens;
and if you can do that, you should be able to get an edge at craps.

The strategy for beating craps involves tossing the dice,
knowing which bets to make,
and getting away with it in a casino.


You start by arranging the dice the way you want; that's called "setting" the dice and is the easy part.
Then you have to throw the dice in such a manner that the result differs from random.
That part is difficult to do.

Most people are coordinated enough to get an edge
on some of the bets on a dice layout, if they learn the proper technique and practice enough."


Now one wants to add some video proof.
Excellent!

Your videos work well on my Win7 machines with Google Chrome
Thanks for the videos
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
dicesitter
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October 13th, 2013 at 7:02:54 PM permalink
Alan




It would never become the altimate test for dice controll because who is going to do it.

I am not picking on Ahigh here, he is working on this for some reason, but you cant use it on his roll
he is not a controlled shooter, is he going to use it on your roll.,... there is no chance in a million
a good DI will go on his show and prove to the world that it works only to find the next day no
dice setter is welcome at any casino in the country.

The only use i see for it is to prove no roll is controlled from start to finish , we already know
that. The only thing that counts is can you influence the dice enough on any given night
to win money.

dicesetter
AxelWolf
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October 13th, 2013 at 7:32:32 PM permalink
At least hes DOING somthing. Give him credit it's definitely things like this that lead to new information and innovation.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 8:07:08 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

I am not picking on Ahigh here, he is working on this for some reason



I think you are picking on me. You are clearly making unsubstantiated claims about my ability to shoot.

It defies logic that you would choose to attack me when your posts are (in my admittedly biased opinion) so clearly the lowest quality posts on the forum and I am clearly providing the most innovative and cutting edge technology to look into the possibility of developing a player edge in craps including a possibility to explain exactly how it works.

Your comments reek of public jealousy, as do your far-fetched claims regarding your ability to have a controlled shot. The reason you nor anyone else is willing to subject themselves on my show to their ability to shoot is because the camera doesn't lie, not because of fear for exposing that dice control is real.

But keep telling yourself what you wish. Maybe some day you will post something that someone thinks is valuable, somewhere.

Look into a spell checker too, as long as you are open to advice.
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Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 8:29:28 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

Where does the Wizard state this?



Listen at 8:30 where the Wizard states his views on craps in spite of Stanford Wong's position on Dice Control, IE: just shy of "The Emperor has no clothes!"

http://www.bobdancer.com/mp3/gwae110311.mp3

The Wizard is very succinct in his representing the side of "there is no merit to dice control."

Further he states, "Far from convinced that there's anything .. that dice setting is any kind of legitimate advantage play."

If the Wizard had the evidence proving that advantage play craps were possible, I'm pretty sure he would make reference to it on his appendices.

Instead all you find a page about how dice control "allegedly" works.

Listen around 13:12 about the Wizard's position on Golden Touch Craps ..

About Frank and GTC: at 13:58

Quote: The Wizard


"Well, let's just say that when it comes to that, I'm from Missouri. Show me. Let's see some evidence. He's a nice man. I hate to say anything bad about him, BUT before I came on the show today. I went on his website again, looking for something .. some MEAT. You know? To show me, any kind of evidence that the Golden Touch Seminar was worth the money. That it was, like I said a legitimate advantage play, and I came up with nothing. You know, he, you know, in his letters from students, you know, tons of them say I really enjoyed the class, the instructors were very helpful, it improved my game. But there was no hard evidence. You know. There was no record keeping of results. No hard numbers at all to substantiate that there was anything to this.

And it's not just this website, the whole subject in general strikes me as like a betting system. And every time someone tells me there's some new fad like the latest betting system, there's always someone to say I made a ton of money doing this, but there's going to be all this kind of hype, but there's never any kind of math to back it up."



I took these comments to heart, and I spoke to the Wizard when I met with him at Red Rock most recently to explain what I am doing including the video tracking and converting to animation data. He is very much behind what I am doing and wants to take a bet. Frankly, if I could just get the Wizard to change his stance from this (above) to accepting that there is merit, that is really my goal. And it's the Wizard's threshold of proof that I am interested in. Plenty of people think it's proven who then go on to lose money leaving them wondering if they just fooled themselves.
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Buzzard
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October 13th, 2013 at 8:50:15 PM permalink
" when your posts are (in my admittedly biased opinion) so clearly the lowest quality posts on the forum "

See, Babs Darling, the quality of my posts has indeed been elevated !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
dicesitter
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:02:59 PM permalink
i give ahigh all the credit in the world, he is doing things very few people
have the ability to do,, there is no question about that....zero.


but i also dont appreciate it , i have spent to many hours working on my game
only to go to a casino and be told i cant play.


Again i dont for one single second question ahigh's talent and ability in
this stuff.

If some one else can find a different outcome... i am all ears.

dicesetter
Buzzard
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:05:24 PM permalink
UH OH Babs. Not looking good for me.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
JB85
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:23:12 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Alan




It would never become the altimate test for dice controll because who is going to do it.

I am not picking on Ahigh here, he is working on this for some reason, but you cant use it on his roll
he is not a controlled shooter, is he going to use it on your roll.,... there is no chance in a million
a good DI will go on his show and prove to the world that it works only to find the next day no
dice setter is welcome at any casino in the country.

The only use i see for it is to prove no roll is controlled from start to finish , we already know
that. The only thing that counts is can you influence the dice enough on any given night
to win money.

dicesetter


Wow really? Don't worry DS your dislike for ahigh is not showing through at all in your recent posts.

I've told you before you ought to pay attention to what ahigh is doing you might learn something. Its become really clear that you just don't get it.
JB85
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:23:35 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

Alan




It would never become the altimate test for dice controll because who is going to do it.

I am not picking on Ahigh here, he is working on this for some reason, but you cant use it on his roll
he is not a controlled shooter, is he going to use it on your roll.,... there is no chance in a million
a good DI will go on his show and prove to the world that it works only to find the next day no
dice setter is welcome at any casino in the country.

The only use i see for it is to prove no roll is controlled from start to finish , we already know
that. The only thing that counts is can you influence the dice enough on any given night
to win money.

dicesetter


Wow really? Don't worry DS your dislike for ahigh is not showing through at all in your recent posts.

I've told you before you ought to pay attention to what ahigh is doing you might learn something. Its become really clear that you just don't get it.
petroglyph
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:28:22 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

UH OH Babs. Not looking good for me.




Hero to zero in 15 minutes flat. That's not even close to a record.
JB85
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:35:11 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

i give ahigh all the credit in the world, he is doing things very few people
have the ability to do,, there is no question about that....zero.


but i also dont appreciate it , i have spent to many hours working on my game
only to go to a casino and be told i cant play.


Again i dont for one single second question ahigh's talent and ability in
this stuff.

If some one else can find a different outcome... i am all ears.

dicesetter


This is like the polar opposite of your last post. First you say he stinks and now this?

It looks like the real problem is you are afraid that if di is proven that it will affect your ability to play with an advantage. IMO this is a needless worry.
dicesitter
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:43:26 PM permalink
jb85



Answer my question please.


would you work hours and hours to get a good throw and then have ahigh
show your roll online and all over the world ,,,,hey this is JB85 and he
can beat you......

Where do you think you would play.....

either it helps you win all the time and a casino says thanks but no thanks
or his system wont work to prove anything to help anyone get any better. It
would have to be one way or the other way.

Either way it wont help the real DI's that have put in many hundreds of
hours to get good at it.

Now you think i am picking on ahigh... ignor what you think show me a different
outcome.

dicesetter
rainman
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:49:09 PM permalink
I'm pretty sure Ahigh can record any shooter shooting without showing their face and disclosing their identity. Well unless you fear the new forearm recognition technology.
AxelWolf
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:58:47 PM permalink
Quote: JB85

This is like the polar opposite of your last post. First you say he stinks and now this?

It looks like the real problem is you are afraid that if di is proven that it will affect your ability to play with an advantage. IMO this is a needless worry.

People see what they want to see, I have a feeling this is going to creat more controversy . People who believe will cherry pick and people who disbelieve will Do the same
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JB85
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:08:17 PM permalink
DS so that is the issue. Imo I think it is possible to influence the dice. I also think it's a skill that is very hard (or maybe impossible) for most people to do well enough to win money consistently in the casino. So ultimately I don't think it's something that we will have to worry about.

I have no idea whether or not ahigh's video software will "prove" that influence is possible. I would think probably not because I think what most people are looking for we will not find and that is axis control.

But I can think of a couple other things that it would definitely help someone who is trying to influence the dice. So I would love to get on ahighs table and let them fly and I'm hoping to do just that when I am in vegas in a few weeks. No I would probably not want my face plastered all over the internet but that's for privacy reasons not because I am worried I will be 86'd from every casino.
dicesitter
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:16:46 PM permalink
JB85



i have already been stopped from playing at 4 casino's just for setting the dice and hasseled
at 3 others.

You may not care, but i do

But i understand, your a friend of ahighs so you support him, nothing wring with
that, that is what friends are for.

I understand where your coming from, i hope you understand my point.

dicesetter
beachbumbabs
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:26:09 PM permalink
dicesetter,

FWIW, I get your point very well, and I don't think you're attacking Ahigh in expressing it. I think you're concerned he will bring the light and the heat when you would prefer to be left to exploit your skills without that kind of attention on the craft or skill or whatever you'd like to call it. And I did not think DC was possible until I saw a guy do it 3 weeks ago, so I can understand your concern. It was like watching a master at horseshoes, and very impressive. Maybe it was even you? Harrah's LV, Wed night around 10 pm 2 1/2 weeks ago?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:32:19 PM permalink
Quote: The Wizard


1. State your hypothesis.
2. Gather data.
3. Analyze the data to see if it fits the hypothesis.



Starting with step 1, here is my hypothesis:

A player edge can be obtained in craps by simultaneously increasing the chance of pairs from faces along the initial axis of rotation (hardways for a hardway set) while decreasing the chances for a seven along the axis of rotation. When 100% randomness is overcome using a throwing technique with proper backspin and control, the dice can hit the back wall and still result in non-uniform outcomes for the faces relative to the outcome of the opposing dice for a particular throw.

The hypothesis is that this is accomplished by minimizing the total amount of movement of the dice on some rolls after the dice touch the felt. If one or more dice bounces sufficiently with enough extra energy relative to the other die, a seven event with be 100% random as only one die must be 100% random to obtain a seven with a chance of 1 in 6 on average.

But for the specific cases where both dice tumble with a similar enough depletion of angular energy, the relative orientation differences from left-die to right-die no longer remains 100% random. Instead a situation occurs where hardways occur more often than 1 out of 36 and sevens occur less often than 1 out of 6.

This condition of obtaining more hardways and fewer sevens is commonly referred to as "pitch control" referring to the dice having similar left-right rotations. My hypothesis is that if you restrict your samples to those where both dice settle more quickly (without wild bounces) you are more likely to obtain pitch control by reducing the total amount of movement of the die before coming to a rest after the initial touchdown. IE: dice that settle more quickly have less randomness in their relative distribution of outcomes, even if an observation on one of the two dice is totally random, the observation of how likely you get the same outcome on both dice should be increased slightly when one of the two dice results in a 2, 3, 4, or 5 face, while the observation that if one die results in a 2, the other die is less likely than 1 in 6 to produce a 5, and likewise for 3 on the first die and 4 on the second and vice vs.

This hypothesis also holds that when an axis face appears (an ace or a six face) on one die, the chance of a seven occurring is higher than if a non-axis face appears on one die. In other words, 6-1 seven out is more common than 5-2 or 4-3 when pitch control is obtained because any advantage from the outcomes being correlated diminishes when the die tumbles in such a way that an axis face results. Yet there may still be more hi-lo's than 6-1 and 1-6 outcomes, just that the ratio is pairs to sevens is not as extreme as the ratio of hardways to 5-2 and 4-3 seven outs.

In addition to this hypothesis, a separate hypothesis is that a specific paired outcome and a specific non-paired outcome will be much more likely than 1 in 36 or 1 in 18 respectively given a consistent enough toss. These two primary outcomes being the dominant outcome in a significantly significant way can allow for specific hardway and easy way targets to be created. So for example, using a hard eight set that I describe as 4242 my dominant hardway is from the top of my set as hard eight. And my dominant easy way is ace-deuce which comes from the right axis face and the face where I place my thumb to shoot. A good controlled throw will exhibit a dominant hardway and a dominant easy way that shows clear dominance throughout the recorded samples as exhibited by p-values for those two dominant outcomes being significantly lower than statistics and randomness could explain.

For the time being I refrain from making any hypothesis for axis control until I have more observations. But these are the two hypotheses thus far. I may refine these as time goes on, but this is my first pass at stating the hypothesis as suggested by the Wizard.
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JB85
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:36:29 PM permalink
DS, were you hassled locally or in vegas? Were you hassled because you simply setting or because you were kicking their ass? I find this interesting because I rarely get any heat. And when I do it's due short rolls which are always unintentional.
dicesitter
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:41:18 PM permalink
No it was not me, it was friend of mine, and i already heard
about his night.

I am glad you were there to watch.

Good luck

dicesitter
Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:45:07 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

dicesetter,

FWIW, I get your point very well, and I don't think you're attacking Ahigh in expressing it. I think you're concerned he will bring the light and the heat when you would prefer to be left to exploit your skills without that kind of attention on the craft or skill or whatever you'd like to call it. And I did not think DC was possible until I saw a guy do it 3 weeks ago, so I can understand your concern. It was like watching a master at horseshoes, and very impressive. Maybe it was even you? Harrah's LV, Wed night around 10 pm 2 1/2 weeks ago?



An expression of this type of concern is not new. Here is a similar such expression of concern for two wild and crazy guys driving all the ladies wild with their hotness.

http://snltranscripts.jt.org/77/77rfestrunks.phtml

Quote: WACG



Oh, Georg my brother, there will certainly be a lot of swinging in our bachelor pad tonight!



Quote: WACG


Why not? There's nothing preventing them. After all, there is no other pair of Czech brothers who cruise and swing so successfuly in tight slacks!



It is sort of a male thing to exaggerate success and verbalize fear for others relating to how successful one has become at something in particular.

http://www.thegrindstone.com/2012/01/13/career-management/men-exaggerate-their-achievements-to-get-ahead-should-women-start-stretching-the-truth-532

It hardly means that DS has any real concern for being found out for his success as an accomplished shooter able to hurt the casino's bottom line with his amazing skill.

Nobody is afraid of my shot here in Vegas. They're afraid of my counting dice! And they won't let me make short rolls. But I have not once had dice taken from me for making a legal shot. Not once. The closest it's ever come has been at Binion's. And I think that guy Frank is just about as crazy as DS in his worry about a controlled shooter taking a bunch of money. Most places couldn't care less if you hit the back wall, no worries.
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Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:49:24 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

No it was not me, it was friend of mine, and i already heard
about his night.

I am glad you were there to watch.

Good luck

dicesitter



When I make claims, I report the dealers names who were there on the particular night for anyone who wants to verify by going to the casino.

Can you share any details for anyone who wants to follow up to corroborate your story? Time, date, dealer names, or other details?

Total amount of win? Specific roll results? Largest single winning bet? Etc?

It sure sounds like a wild and crazy night, though!
aahigh.com
JB85
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:50:10 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

dicesetter,

FWIW, I get your point very well, and I don't think you're attacking Ahigh in expressing it. I think you're concerned he will bring the light and the heat when you would prefer to be left to exploit your skills without that kind of attention on the craft or skill or whatever you'd like to call it. And I did not think DC was possible until I saw a guy do it 3 weeks ago, so I can understand your concern. It was like watching a master at horseshoes, and very impressive. Maybe it was even you? Harrah's LV, Wed night around 10 pm 2 1/2 weeks ago?


Would you care to share more details on this shooter and what made you think he was actually able to control the dice?
Buzzard
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:51:59 PM permalink
Come on, you know Babs was drunk.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Ahigh
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October 13th, 2013 at 10:52:11 PM permalink
If you listen to the Wizard's comments on why he does not think that AP craps is possible, part of what he says is that the "whole thing" smacks of a betting system with a bunch of hype.

Posts like DS that are unsubstantiated and just amount to hype help to prevent people from believing that it's possible. So maybe DS is legit and he just makes false claims about how great he is to throw the casinos off his trail.

Maybe it's pure genius the intentional misspelled words and all part of his elaborate plan to continue to pull down the big G-money by coming across as some guy who likes to brag about how awesome he is without any real evidence to back it up so that nobody will ever believe anyone who claims that they can do it.
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beachbumbabs
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October 13th, 2013 at 11:03:54 PM permalink
Quote: JB85

Would you care to share more details on this shooter and what made you think he was actually able to control the dice?



JB and Ahigh,

I posted on this in some detail (to be clear, I don't claim to be any kind of craps player, and I wasn't tracking every roll in order, but I do have a head that retains stuff like this, so this is pretty accurate) at the time; Miplet was there with me. Here's what I said then:

nI saw my first DC tonight. Miplet rolled a seven coming out, then missed a little and set a point of 4. Then he got into the swing of it and threw 4 5's in a row. We hesitated on betting it, because the variance was huge, but the 3 big bettors on the table got on it and he threw a 5th one. Then he 7'd out.

(i'm just teasing miplet, but the sequence is true. And we did have a DC, and i was genuinely impressed. he was lining up the 5's side by side, with the 4s facing the wall, got a good loft, no spin, and hit them dead into the corner. the guys who knew him were betting the field and the stupid 30:1 on the boxcars and aces, and he made himself and both of them a LOT of money on his 2 passes. (That I saw).

I, myself, in my second ever craps, tried to pass the dice and the stickman gave me a whole lot of grief. I hit a point of 10, threw a 3, then 7'd out. gah. THEN, after he'd taken my money, he agreed I sucked.

I think what is uncomfortable to me about craps is the shooting. I don't like other people losing money on my cruddy rolls. If i bet on a shooter, that's on me. But it cost those people several hundred dollars for me to throw once.


Cowboy asked me for more detail, and I said,

Cowboy and all. I don't speak the language so bear with me.

The other three guys our end were two seven stars and one diamond. One seven star was the dc. He was in midpass when we walked up. The other two came in rught behind us. Dc threw two twelves and one two then made his point of eight. His next point was six and he threw one more twelve then made his point with two eights in there . Then his point was eight and he made a six and a three and sevened out.
Diamond got the dice, hesevened, set a point of five, rolled a couple times and sevened out. Seven stars got a point of five hit a twelve,hit a couple six/eights and sevened out. Miplet rolled and after his second five they stopped betting the field and the horn bets and placed the five, winning three more tetimes before miplet sevened out. I did my table crash. Then the dc set a six or eight, theywent back to their horn and field bet, and the dc managed another two twelves and a two before sevening out. I was betting pl w/2x odds and placing 6
/8...this whole thing rn me out of money at that point and we decided not to rebuy. They were throwing the horn bets past my face ll the time soi noticed them quite a lot. But in about 28 rolls there were 6 twelves and two twos and two threes the field bet won along with the big horn plays. That has to be wayout of whack.

Typing on tablet sucks. Too hard to fix typos without mouse or nav arrows. Sorry.

Was in this thread started by FrankScoblete; https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13529-can-you-be-banned-for-dice-control-have-casinos-done-this/28/ From Sept 27-28

Nobody really answered it.

But his dice were in almost slow motion; no tumble to speak of, no sideways vector; they would hit right in the crease between the floor and the diamond wall and both flop left or right, with almost no bounce. (trying to be descriptive; I don't know the terminology) He was pitching them almost underhanded with a big arc, pinched left handed between his thumb and midfinger. And doing a very mechanically similar thing every time. It was beautiful to watch, though it took me a few rolls to realize what he was doing, and the stick was giving me a lot of friendly guff while I was trying to watch him.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ahigh
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October 14th, 2013 at 2:31:57 AM permalink
I've zipped up a couple dozen rolls from both camera angles.

http://www.goodshooter.com/ahigh/mp4/rolls.zip

This is a couple hundred megabytes. The idea is you can download the whole thing and unzip it and use whatever program you want (quicktime is good, windows media player, or video lan player) to view the movies.

If you use windows media player, you can open all the files at once to create a list of stuff to play and just watch them one after another.

This is just a test for recording a bunch of rolls and having each roll per camera in a separate file from an automated roll recording process.

I get these files instantly right after shooting so I can instantly see how the shot I made two seconds ago looks in slow motion. I do think I want a shot of my release though. I think that would be super cool.

I'm not showing off a shot yet, just consider this showing off my recording system. I will add a camera and some more software to record the release too. I think that will add a whole lot to see the whole shot with 100% automated editing. It's already pretty awesome that I can just focus on shooting and not have to press buttons to do anything. But getting the release of the dice, I think, would be very valuable too to go along with things to be able to understand how the shot was performed for shots that look good on the way that they settle.
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AlanMendelson
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October 14th, 2013 at 7:46:14 AM permalink
Ahigh, here's where you get into trouble, with statements like this:

Quote: Ahigh

I think you are picking on me. You are clearly making unsubstantiated claims about my ability to shoot.



When you make statements like that you stop being "the researcher" and when you stop being "the researcher" your research gets sidelined and compromised. Be a "researcher" and put your own claims aside for awhile.

Build your new system, show the world that it works -- that should be your top priority. Then you can test your own "ability" and later prove your claims. But if you turn this into another "I am the greatest shooter argument" no one will pay attention to your research.
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