Ahigh Show Tuesday at 7:30pm Pacific Time

Evidently you think a 5 year old has as much skill as a dice setter. At last you have seen the light !

Quote: Buzzard

Quote: Ahigh

Quote: Buzzard

Would Dice Influencer suit you better? I believe fool is already taken.

And you predicted I would get the timeout?

The best defense is a slander suit is the truth. The defense rests.

Dare you deny you fit this definition ?
FOOL A person with a talent or enthusiasm for a certain activity.

Even with a level of indirection and a reasonable doubt for the definition, I am merely surprised you would call me a fool on this forum.

You didn't get reprimanded, so I guess that means you can walk the tightrope well enough. If they thought I was truly offended (which I wasn't) you could have been, and the difference might be a matter of context.

We have gotten along fine lately, Buzz. But I am getting weary on some issues. Especially as it relates to over-generalizing on topics relating to what I am doing.

I wish I had enough energy to interact with everyone, but I got pretty tired with all the stuff going on just trying to keep up.

Ok I will step into the background and be a silent admirer of your pursuits. Fair enough ?

No worries, Buzz.

ON THE SUBJECT OF BIASED DICE or unbalanced dice...

I really hesitate to follow up on this, honestly, but just curious who else is interested in the topic of biased dice as the result of the last show?

I tried to watch more of Koga's videos, and part of what I watched was video where I said I would follow up on looking into what is going on with these unbalanced dice.

During my show I clearly stated that it appeared the die was not balanced. My balancer is EXTREMELY sensitive to unbalanced dice. So even a tiny amount of off-balance is detected compared to the calipers that are available for $40, it would not be detectable.

The oscillation frequency is a measure of how far off balance the die is. And it was a pretty low frequency of oscillation.

So I can go into these details, whether it will be on Tuesday's show or another time. The thing about it is that it takes a lot of time to do all this stuff, and I don't know if it's only Harley and Koga that are interested or who else might be interested. I don't want to turn my show into a show about the details of balanced dice if nobody really cares.

But if this is truly going into a discovery process about how bias exists, but it is from the dice themselves, I can tell you that I have the most advanced tool to look into this, and I'm willing to go there if there is interest to talk about.

The feedback I got from some other viewers was that they wanted to see more about throwing the dice and less about the dice being balanced or not.

But the nature of the show is that I am letting the direction of the show be influenced by the viewers. I believe most of the viewers are from this forum, so that's why I am asking here to try to come up with what to cover next time around.

Quote: Ahigh

ON THE SUBJECT OF BIASED DICE or unbalanced dice...

I really hesitate to follow up on this, honestly, but just curious who else is interested in the topic of biased dice as the result of the last show?

...

The feedback I got from some other viewers was that they wanted to see more about throwing the dice and less about the dice being balanced or not.

But the nature of the show is that I am letting the direction of the show be influenced by the viewers. I believe most of the viewers are from this forum, so that's why I am asking here to try to come up with what to cover next time around.

Personally I would be interested in hearing about potentially unbalanced dice. I had never really thought about it until recently, always assuming that there was some kind of process in place to guarantee the dice were fair within certain parameters. The recent posts from Harley have been...unsettling. I'm probably not being skeptical enough of their claims, I'm still unsettled!

Now I know that just because the pips have a different melting point doesn't mean they necessarily have a different density, but I always assumed that they were made of the exact same material, just colored differently. The fact that they are a different material raises the possibility that they have a different density and thus are introducing some amount of bias.

I highly doubt any casinos are using biased dice on purpose. As has been stated ad nauseum, they already have a built-in advantage on every bet, why would they need to introduce bias? But I don't find it out of the realm of possibility that some casinos are unintentionally using cheap dice that aren't fair.

Quote: Ahigh

The feedback I got from some other viewers was that they wanted to see more about throwing the dice .

Of course, people aren't interested in theory, they
want to know how to throw the dice accurately.
Make your show mostly about that and not about
graphs and charts, and even I'll watch.

+1 Evenbob

Quote: Ahigh

I've got 2000 rolls with the do with no odds shows I have a 1.41% edge to my advantage.

How many times can you replicate that, two, three, four, five? At five, you might start getting some believers.

Quote: SanchoPanza

How many times can you replicate that, two, three, four, five? At five, you might start getting some believers.

Under testing is the downfall of many wannabee's. Test
and test and then test some more. That was Wong's
problem, not enough testing and believing in the
unproven testimony of others. "I just saw BigFoot!"
Great, tell me the story and I'll write a book about it..

Quote: Ahigh

I've got 2000 rolls with the do with no odds shows I have a 1.41% edge to my advantage.

Quote: SanchoPanza

How many times can you replicate that, two, three, four, five? At five, you might start getting some believers.

For his 2352 rolls, I do not see a link to all of them, it is not a rare feat to come out $40 ahead just making $5 pass line bets. (if that is what his program does)

About 25% chance (1 in 4) of doing just that over say 700 average actual bets resolved. (sd of 30 bets)
Excel: =1-NORMDIST(right_tail_min,mean,stdev,TRUE)
right_tail_min = 40(or 39.5)
So 5 times in a row, about 1 in 1024. Some will be impressed, others will not be.

At 700 resolved pass line bets at $5 each
mean: -49.49
stdev: 132.27
There is still a lot of variance for that 1.41% value over 700 such bets

HE is 1.41% +/- 3.78%
(132.27/3500)

6 sigma
3sd: 0.099236589
2sd: 0.061443922
1sd: 0.023651254
mean: -0.014141414
-1sd: -0.051934082
-2sd: -0.08972675
-3sd: -0.127519418

I would not at all be surprised if his HE over those 2352 rolls was between +9.9% to -12.7%
Nothing one can do to either end up say +1 SD or -1 SD from the mean.
DIs want to believe they can control the variance.

Good Lucks

Thanks for the feedback, guys. I'm a little surprised there's a disinterest in the charts and graphs.

I will also say that if I can get an edge from learning more about brands of dice and how they are unbalanced (the details of how) I would love to exploit edges on cheap dice, and I am absolutely one of the few people with the tools to see the exact details of how what dice are unbalanced with my tools. I think that my die balance will detect unbalance beyond which will overcome the house edge. So the first thing would be to determine how much imbalance is required to beat the house edge.

The measurement of imbalance is effectively the oscillation frequency. Higher frequency is higher imbalance. I can measure the oscillation frequency and chart out the bias as a function of oscillation frequency and figure out how much is needed in terms of a threshold frequency for one die, and the other frequency for two dice (biased the same way presumably).

Generally all the tools I have are designed to exploit any bias, no matter if it's from a throw or from dice, or anything else. If there is a bias, my software is designed to tell you how to exploit it most effectively using the repertoire of common betting strategies.

Throw bias is easier to figure out how to bet in because I can swap up all the sets. But dice bias could be exploited if it's there and I can learn more about it than the casinos know. Especially if I learn about specific brands and details of them.

But I am absolutely the leading skeptic that there's enough imbalance bias.

I personally believe that the majority of the bias is due to deformations of the corners that results from normal play.

Quote: Ahigh

I personally believe that the majority of the bias is due to deformations of the corners that results from normal play.

The casinos realize this as well: they change dice quite frequently.

What other reason is there for changing dice, if not to keep them as uniform as possible?

Quote: Ahigh

Thanks for the feedback, guys. I'm a little surprised there's a disinterest in the charts and graphs.

.

The casino wants to see what you hav, play wise. They
don't require charts and graphs.

EvenBob: I'm not sure what you mean. Could you be more concise?

Quote: Ahigh

EvenBob: I'm not sure what you mean. Could you be more concise?

When I play, the casino wants to see my bet, they
don't care how I arrived at it. They only pay if you
bet correctly. Any students you have are the same
way. They're only interested in being shown how
to win, not how you arrived at your conclusions.
If you want to be a successful gambling teacher, spend
90% of your time showing students how to do what you
do, by demonstration. No matter how fascinating the rest
of it might be to you..

Quote: Ahigh

EvenBob: I'm not sure what you mean. Could you be more concise?

Quote: EvenBob

When I play, the casino wants to see my bet, they
don't care how I arrived at it. They only pay if you
bet correctly. Any students you have are the same
way. They're only interested in being shown how
to win, not how you arrived at your conclusions.
If you want to be a successful gambling teacher, spend
90% of your time showing students how to do what you
do, by demonstration. No matter how fascinating the rest
of it might be to you..

Wow.

Quote: tupp

Wow.

Stupied, obviously. Truth will do that to a person.

<deleted>

I'm looking forward to the show tomorrow. If there is anyone who is a Las Vegas local who wants to be on the show with me, let me know. It might be fun to do an interview if there is anybody else out there who is not camera shy. I know that rules out Koga Ninja, Super Rick, and Harley Horn. But maybe there is someone out there who is not afraid to show their face to give credibility to the groups that the members of the WOV believe are full of crap.

I have the platform for you to demonstrate your shot. I could possibly even try to avoid getting your face on camera if you're really worried about it.

But as Alan suggested, if coming up with biased results is possible, I would be willing to spend the entire hour doing speed rolls. With two people you can do 300 rolls an hour or more.

The voice input is incredibly hard to read as it's a long rambling run on sentence.

Just so you know.

Ahigh

I'll try to put it in a way that you might understand, I'm not about to call any casino and tell them I'm here to take your money, because I wouldn't want to embarrass myself if that didn't happen. That's the problem with being a so-called DI. They don't win every time they hit a casino. I don't want to be hassled when I'm shooting by every casino in Vegas if I get on a roll because you showed my face on your show. Now you or the guy that is going to shoot for your show may not think that's its a big deal to have your face plastered in every security room there is in Vegas, but I don't want that honor!

I offered once before to help you out with your shooting, but you turned the offer down by saying that you knew more then the other so-called DI's, that live in Vegas. I even gave you my phone number to set something up, but your ego got in the way of that happening.

They have been trying to prove that there are DI's for years now and guess what; nobody is stepping up to the plate, to put on a show for everybody. I much rather stay in the background watching what you are doing, and wondering just how many casino security departments will be watching to see if they can spot any player that they should be watching when they are in their casinos!

If you want to feel the heat, from the casinos you are playing at the wrong ones. Why don't you take you little show on the road to Gold Coast, South Point or Tuscany. If you do manage to get on a roll when they have a highroller there I'm sure that they would have a different out look then the Wynn. Now you won't have the table dumping thousands in those casinos, but if the table is dumping anything, you might find that you have a problem. Call ahead and tell them you are coming you might give them something to laugh at for years to come.

Ahigh take a walk over to the Fremount the next time you are down town, look at their wall with all those guys and girls that had 60 rolls, they are immortalized on a wall display a few feet from the craps area. Big deal, do you know why? That's because most of those shooters were what everybody calls random rollers, that got lucky!

The DI's try to tell everybody they are special, their fiction writers tell them, if they want to win money the only way to do it, is to never bet on any other players. I love to read the BS they write, then pick it apart, just in case you didn't know it. So my answer to you would be I'm sorry but you will not see my face on a video. My offer still stands about helping you out with your shooting, but I don't think you would listen to what I had to say about it anyway, you are so convinced that you are a dice influencer I don't think that anybody could convince you that your shooting is nothing more then random.

The main thing that I know you are getting out of this whole thing is you are the center of everybody's attention, some times for the wrong reasons. Please keep up the good work of proving that everybody is random with your slow motion videos.
Now let me ask you one quick question, today are you an dice influencer, or just a random roller? Every time you write something you keep jumping back and forth. The same thing goes for your balancer, one time it's the best there is and the next time it's not and you're are not going to waste you time proving anything. My, my, my just think you wasted over $2000, trying to prove that you were the best, you had the best balancer that mankind ever built, but now you admit defeat!

Most people call this tough love when they tell their kids what they are doing is wrong, but I know that your take it in a negative way no matter how anybody tells you that you have a problem with what you are doing. I'm sure the guys will tell me all about your next show so I don't have to watch it, lets see what they can spot this time, if you are shooting! Please do some more slow motion live if you have the time.

Thanks

Superrick

Quote: superrick

They have been trying to prove that there are DI's for years now and guess what; nobody is stepping up to the plate, to put on a show for everybody. I much rather stay in the background watching what you are doing, and wondering just how many casino security departments will be watching to see if they can spot any player that they should be watching when they are in their casinos!

I think you mean the marketing department, not the security department. Ahigh (and anyone else who thinks he can magically control dice) is a casino's dream customer. The only reason security would have to monitor anyone who appears on the Ahigh Show is so maybe they know they have to empty the cashdrop boxes more frequently when they show up to the craps pit.

sodawater

Well let me phrase this differently, the fiction writers, the schools and the so-called DI's have been trying to prove this for years, by just writing BS about it, the casinos laugh their heads off when some of these schools come into town. I don't think that it has anything to do with what they were just taught, but has to do with a bunch of these guys all going to the tables together, playing musical shooter and of course losing. I only know of one school that tells their students not to hit the tables in large groups.

The craps tables are money making machines, when you think about their high cost of running one, you can see just how they can genterate so much money for the casinos. With every roll of the dice they are making money even of the winners they are paying out. Players never look at a winner as being a loser, but even when you are winning, at the same time you are losing money, because of the Vig you are paying on every bet you make.

Scarne explained it best when he was writing about a private game right better and what the 1.414% does to you on pages 75, 76 and 77. I'm not going to quote him because, if your a craps player you should have his book.

I've seen plenty DI's go to the wayside and are no-longer playing craps because they figured out that they couldn't beat the game. Most of the players that I met when I fist started playing craps in Vegas no longer play the game, they were beating down over time by the casinos. These guys would never pick up a book or invest the time it took to read about how they manage the casinos, they though that their shooting would win them money, but that never happened. I only know of a few guys that over the years have stayed ahead of the game and that is because of their management skills and not their shooting skills.

Living in Vegas is a real eye opener, especially if you happened to work in and around the casinos for any reason. My job, took me into the casinos, some times 7 days a week if I had to work over time. I was in the eye in the sky rooms to look at videos, if they had something to do with my job. I got to eat in their employee dining rooms and talk to the dealers, as an outsider, which was not playing on their tables. The casinos do read these boards and in the older casinos there are plenty of photos of players that they don't want playing in their casinos.

If Ahigh was a threat to the casinos he plays in he wouldn't be playing. Casinos love losers, but they hate anybody that takes money out of them. They especially love the guys that play craps for the fun of it!

Quote: superrick

sodawater the fiction writers, the schools and the so-called DI's have been trying to prove this for years, by just writing BS about it

Guys like your nemesis, Mad Professor.

What a bunch of hooey!

Quote: Ahigh

It's the controlled throw that has a quantifiable bias that is in question here.

Ahigh, you just acknowledged what your critics have been saying all along. It's a question of the "controlled throw."

So I have a suggestion: somehow show (demonstrate) a "controlled throw." It might involve throwing the dice with a backdrop of white poster board and shooting the dice traveling across the board with a side view of the camera. It also might involve an overhead shot with the dice traveling along the table. It also will definitely involve showing how the dice hit the table and how they bounce from that spot.

Show us from those angles a "controlled throw" and this discussion, I think, will take a dramatic turn.

To date we have never seen what can be described as a "controlled throw." And I challenge your supporters to come to your defense to say that you have shown us "controlled throws."

Quote: Ahigh

Why is it that I can't pursue the truth without EVERYONE jumping to their own specific forgone conclusions?

This is a gem. Because it appears that you already have your mind made up as to what the truth is. However, your critics also have their minds made up. This is why I suggested in another thread that you should use your talents and skills with computers and use your equipment and the skills used in videography to test the skills of the known dice controllers.

Take Ahigh out of the equation and off the stage. Go show us what the so-called "experts" really are doing when they "influence" or "control" the dice.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Go show us what the so-called "experts" really are doing when they "influence" or "control" the dice.

But then Ahigh's ego isn't involved. Isn't that what this
is all really about?

Quote: AlanMendelson

somehow show (demonstrate) a "controlled throw."

Why doesnt someone show up at Aaron's place and show what I am utterly incapable of doing, tossing the dice and have them land consistently at the back wall under the pyramids. Or some such.

Supposedly there are people who can do this with some degree of regularity. They don't have to identify themselves. Show up in a Lone Ranger mask.

PS: for what I attempt, I see no one else mention it. For it to theoretically have any effect it requires tolerance by the crew. So far that part I have been achieving. The part about actually influencing the dice is in doubt [g]

Quote: odiousgambit

Why doesnt someone show up at Aaron's place and show what I am utterly incapable of doing, tossing the dice and have them land consistently at the back wall under the pyramids. Or some such.

What's ironic is that I actually did that... three times in a row... each time the dice showing 5-4 and the table crew at Bellagio went bonkers on me and it was just luck. Really, it was just luck that my dice happened to come to rest under the pyramids against the back wall showing 5-4 three times ina row.

That's when the crew called a no-roll and wouldn't pay, and insisted that my dice must bounce off the back wall a minimum of 6 inches and when I said there is no such rule and the crew wouldn't pay the last bet a pit boss intervened (on my behalf, by the way) and got into a yelling match with the crew... and that's how I became a marked man there.

Later Bellagio apologized, said the crew was "re-educated" but they never made good on the missed payout (which wasn't much, I think $35 or maybe $70).

Quote: superrick

The casinos do read these boards and in the older casinos there are plenty of photos of players that they don't want playing in their casinos. If Ahigh was a threat to the casinos he plays in he wouldn't be playing.

Does that include highly publicized players like Scoblete and Dominator?

Quote: AlanMendelson

...and the table crew at Bellagio went bonkers on me...

Quote: Beethoven9th

Just out of curiosity, did this happen on swing shift? (I can't stand the Bellagio craps dealers on swing)

I'm not sure what "swing shift" is at Bellagio but this happened at about 3-am.

Quote: Buzzard

: everyone's throw is different without any question!!! " And your throw , no matter how many hours you practice, will be no more skilled than mine.

Hello Buzzard,

you are wrong, if you are convicted, that it is not possible to gain advantage by throwing the dice in a special way.
I am not into Punto Banco and all these dice games but I know from first hand (grandfather) that it is possible.

The problem with Punto Banco is not the dice but the pyramids on the wall. If they weren't there you can be sure to lose a game of "dice" against any "professional" or highskilled person.

To make it short (of what I know):

Casino can be beaten by:

- Cardcounting/shuffletracking etc. (but is hardly practicable nowadays)
- wheel bias exploitation
- wheelwatching (or how you call it: visual ballistics)

and in very few cases by dices. As I said, I am not into dices and therefore know hardly anything about it except that a) it is possible and b) it is very easy to get a bigger edge by taking the dices in a special way (not special but meaning, certain numbers must be on the sides to lower or raise the probability to get a "7")

> if you dont believe me: open your eyes: it is there!
Calculate the probabilities of every possible outcome with each possible dice-setup and u will have a start

even if its only a slight advantage: dont be so ignorant with your worldview. Take a file, file off 0,5mm of any edge on the dice and you will have a different outcome. Its like this "a butterfly can cause tornado" (or however you say it) thing..

Hello Buzzard,

you are wrong,

I think not. That is why no dice setter will lay me odds.

Ahigh, if u throw dem bones anything like last week I think every casino in Vegas will welcome u. As already mentioned they were bouncing all over that table. I believe if that laptop wasnt sittin on the felt those dice would have landed in every SqFt of that table. Your throws look like some of your posts, long, random and all over the place. Tell us wanna be believers what it is that you think u can do with your throw and then show us in the form of betting strategy. Take the laptop off the table and replace it with chips on the end where u throw as to create real casino conditions. Show less graphs and more throwing, then at the end show us how your throw would have done. Get more players there and do the same. I am impressed with the setup and the gadgets but want to see more throws. I will give the show another look but I have to tell you its not looking good right now.

Quote: Ahigh

Thanks for the feedback, guys. I'm a little surprised there's a disinterest in the charts and graphs.

The charts and graphs are interesting and all, but it's all pointless until you can demonstrate repeatable bias. Yes the graphs are a useful tool to figure that out, but you need a bigger sample size for them to really mean anything. That is why I have been mostly glossing over the graphs/charts...until there is more data backing them, it's not super interesting.

In the end, there's really only one number that matters in my mind, and that's what percentage 7s you can roll over the long term. Although with your software, I suppose you could figure out the right way to bet for any bias.

Quote: Buzzard

That is why no dice setter will lay me odds.

I am definitely a dice setter, and I believe we have a $100 bet.

Read all the replies. I will try to address some of this in tonight's show, but no lengthy response on this thread.

See you guys tonight.

Quote: tupp

I am definitely a dice setter, and I believe we have a $100 bet.

How about a little one on one. Me against any expert dice setter. I'll take 3-1. A modest line for a novice against an expert .

Quote: Buzzard

How about a little one on one. Me against any expert dice setter. I'll take 3-1. A modest line for a novice against an expert .

How about you first address the question of whether or not you will honor your existing, one-on-one bet with a dice setter and address how such a bet relates to your statement, "That is why no dice setter will lay me odds?"

Hey, read the original thread. When I suggested post toasties, SOOPOO thought I was trying to weasel out of the bet.

As for laying odds, if someones professes to have a skill set, then he would lays odds he is better than a novice.

I don't care if it's rolling more 7's in a 100 rolls, more 6's, whatever. At 3 to 1 I will throw them over my shoulder.

What do you think a fair line would be ? 1 to 1 is an admission of non-skill.

Buzzard, please answer plainly -- are you going to honor our $100 bet?

Of course I am. Sorry you did not understand that.

Now what odds would you lay on a dice setter versus me? We can go double or nothing if you prefer.

Quote: Buzzard

Hey, read the original thread. When I suggested post toasties, SOOPOO thought I was trying to weasel out of the bet.

As for laying odds, if someones professes to have a skill set, then he would lays odds he is better than a novice.

I don't care if it's rolling more 7's in a 100 rolls, more 6's, whatever. At 3 to 1 I will throw them over my shoulder.

What do you think a fair line would be ? 1 to 1 is an admission of non-skill.

Depends on the skill the player claims they have. It's an interesting question though. I might run some numbers at 100 rolls to see where 3:1 would be a 'fair' bet for the thrower. They shouldn't take it at fair though... they should take it well above that to get an advantage ;)

I agree 1:1 is a bad bet. I would shift the lay odds, or give a handicap to make 1:1 a show of skill (e.g. who throws the least 6's, DI starts at +3, choosing a random number).

Quote: Buzzard

Of course I am. Sorry you did not understand that.

Alright.

I have sent funds for my side of the bet to a third party and receipt has been verified. I hope that you do the same.

Now, I am most definitely a dice setter. So, how does your statement, "That is why no dice setter will lay me odds," relate to our bet?

We are betting $100 each , are we not ?

I am math illiterate, but figure SOOPOO usually has the best of it.

Now, Mister Dice Setter, what odds are you willing lay against me, heads up, you and I trying to roll a specied number, or not a number, in 100 rolls ?

Quote: thecesspit

Depends on the skill the player claims they have. It's an interesting question though. I might run some numbers at 100 rolls to see where 3:1 would be a 'fair' bet for the thrower. They shouldn't take it at fair though... they should take it well above that to get an advantage ;)

I agree 1:1 is a bad bet. I would shift the lay odds, or give a handicap to make 1:1 a show of skill (e.g. who throws the least 6's, DI starts at +3, choosing a random number).

I admit it to totally unskilled. Will throw dice over my shoulder, between legs, whatever. Cause it just does not matter.

I for one hope that Aaron starts the show early again like he did recently.

When he and the lady were doing dishes together and casually ignoring one another: Wow, so "real life."

And he kept the plates on axis, which is more than he did with the dice.