Ahigh Show Tuesday at 7:30pm Pacific Time

Here is a You Tube link for last night's unannounced last-minute broadcast. This will cut out the ads and it's also easier to skip around to specific parts and what-not.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMC4LZVmNZs

Here's a link that takes you directly to two short roll hard 8's back-to-back:

http://youtu.be/fMC4LZVmNZs?t=14m10s

An overview of the software that advises me on what sets to use for various objectives/targets.

http://youtu.be/fMC4LZVmNZs?t=9m42s

The beginning of some decent results:

http://youtu.be/fMC4LZVmNZs?t=25m25s

I added chi-squared analysis to my software. It should be a big help to be able to see as you're going along how likely the data is to be evenly distributed.

Total rolls: 2998
1) 1007 16.79% - 16.67 = (+0.13)--------------------------------------------------- 1
2) 992 16.54% - 16.67 = (-0.12)-------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 977 16.29% - 16.67 = (-0.37)------------------------------------------------- 3
4) 1035 17.26% - 16.67 = (+0.59)---------------------------------------------------- 4
5) 1007 16.79% - 16.67 = (+0.13)--------------------------------------------------- 5
6) 978 16.31% - 16.67 = (-0.36)------------------------------------------------- 6
There's a 92.16% chance, that this data is evenly distributed.

11: ---------------------------------------------------- 2 (77)
21: --------------------------------------------------------------- 3 (187)
22: ------------------------------------------------------------ 4 (89)
31: ------------------------------------------------------- 4 (163)
32: ---------------------------------------------------- 5 (155)
41: ------------------------------------------------------ 5 (161)
33: ---------------------------------------------------- 6 (77)
42: ------------------------------------------------------------ 6 (178)
51: ------------------------------------------------------------- 6 (183)
61: ----------------------------------------------------- 7 (159)
52: -------------------------------------------------- 7 (149)
43: ---------------------------------------------------- 7 (155)
53: ---------------------------------------------------------- 8 (173)
44: ---------------------------------------------------------------- 8 (95)
62: ------------------------------------------------- 8 (145)
63: ----------------------------------------------------------- 9 (177)
54: ------------------------------------------------------------ 9 (179)
55: ---------------------------------------------------------- 10 (87)
64: ---------------------------------------------------------- 10 (172)
65: -------------------------------------------------- 11 (149)
66: ----------------------------------------------------------- 12 (88)
There's a 52.55% chance, that this data is evenly distributed.

2) 77 2.57% - 2.78% = -0.21% (-6.28)-------- 2
3) 187 6.24% - 5.56% = 0.68% (+20.44)------------------- 3
4) 252 8.41% - 8.33% = 0.07% (+2.17)-------------------------- 4
5) 316 10.54% - 11.11% = -0.57% (-17.11)-------------------------------- 5
6) 438 14.61% - 13.89% = 0.72% (+21.61)-------------------------------------------- 6
7) 463 15.44% - 16.67% = -1.22% (-36.67)----------------------------------------------- 7
8) 413 13.78% - 13.89% = -0.11% (-3.39)------------------------------------------ 8
9) 356 11.87% - 11.11% = 0.76% (+22.89)------------------------------------ 9
10) 259 8.64% - 8.33% = 0.31% (+9.17)--------------------------10
11) 149 4.97% - 5.56% = -0.59% (-17.56)---------------11
12) 88 2.94% - 2.78% = 0.16% (+4.72)---------12
There's a 50.26% chance, that this data is evenly distributed.

4:7 ratio is 54.428% - 50.000% = +4.428% (+8.86% diff)
5:7 ratio is 68.251% - 66.667% = +1.584% (+2.38% diff)
6:7 ratio is 94.600% - 83.333% = +11.267% (+13.52% diff)
8:7 ratio is 89.201% - 83.333% = +5.868% (+7.04% diff)
9:7 ratio is 76.890% - 66.667% = +10.223% (+15.33% diff)
10:7 ratio is 55.940% - 50.000% = +5.940% (+11.88% diff)
There's a 56.17% chance, that this data is evenly distributed.

Total sevens 463 - Seven outs 327 (70.63%) - Seven winners 136 (29.37%)
Pairs 513 17.11% - 16.67% = 0.44% (+13.33 rolls)
Hards 348 11.61% - 11.11% = 0.50% (+14.89 rolls)
HiLos 165 5.50% - 5.56% = -0.05% (-1.56 rolls)
H2 77/25 ( 2.57% - 2.78% = -6.28)
H4 89/23 ( 2.97% - 2.78% = +5.72)
H6 77/25 ( 2.57% - 2.78% = -6.28)
H8 95/18 ( 3.17% - 2.78% = +11.72)
H10 87/26 ( 2.90% - 2.78% = +3.72)
H12 88/17 ( 2.94% - 2.78% = +4.72)

With Chi-squared built in now, I am thinking of automating the process of giving feedback from chi-squared results as you are shooting.

I already frequently hit keys to find out what my rolls-to-seven ratios are, but I think I want to have a whole suite of algorithms that try to give me feedback on sliding windows of rolls to tell me if I am doing anything that appears non-random to give me some feedback on how I'm doing in real time.

I am already planning to chart the rolls-to-seven ratio for the SOOPOO challenge, but I also want to figure out if there are sections of spans of rolls that seem less likely to be random than others.

The biased dice scene was one such time when all the alarm bells would be going off that something is not appearing to be random in the last so many rolls.

But I want that stuff to be going off constantly, no matter what is causing it to not be random, you need instant feedback besides just looking at the graphs.

Quote: Ahigh

I added chi-squared analysis to my software.

Your values are not coming out right. Recheck your formula.
This site has the formula and a calculator.
http://www.quantpsy.org/chisq/chisq.htm

what the distribution and results look like
http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/applets/chisqdemo.html

Faces
There's a 92.16% chance, that this data is evenly distributed.
I get:
data: freq (from R)
X-squared = 2.3989, df = 5, p-value = 0.7916
Excel
X-squared = 2.398933, df = 5, p-value = 0.791633066

Hops
There's a 52.55% chance, that this data is evenly distributed.
I get:
Excel
X-squared = 19.053369, df = 20, p-value = 0.518359479

Totals
There's a 50.26% chance, that this data is evenly distributed.
I get:
Excel
X-squared = 11.747698, df = 11, p-value = 0.302296973

Quote: Ahigh

It should be a big help to be able to see as you're going along how likely the data is to be evenly distributed.

Too small a sample (less than 30 rolls) and expected values (less than 5) will return meaningless results from the chi-square test.

Suggestion: Add a mean/standard deviation table (like the one boymimbo made)
for your sample session to compare to the chi-square test results.
simple binomial standard deviation
mean = N*P
SD = square root of (N*P*(1-P))
This can be graphed as I did in this post
(real fast in Excel, you can do better than what I did)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12821-ahigh-show-tuesday-at-7-30pm-pacific-time/48/#post220567

Good Luck on the 11th

Quote:

Total rolls: 2998
1) 1007 16.79% - 16.67 = (+0.13)--------------------------------------------------- 1
2) 992 16.54% - 16.67 = (-0.12)-------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 977 16.29% - 16.67 = (-0.37)------------------------------------------------- 3
4) 1035 17.26% - 16.67 = (+0.59)---------------------------------------------------- 4
5) 1007 16.79% - 16.67 = (+0.13)--------------------------------------------------- 5
6) 978 16.31% - 16.67 = (-0.36)------------------------------------------------- 6
There's a 92.16% chance, that this data is evenly distributed.

You can also have a Chi-squared analysis that would output;
The probability of the above Up Face distribution being due to chance is 79.16%
[ Based on:
2.3989 = X² statistic
5 = df
999.33 = expectancy per Up Face
5996 = Up Face total
Used Chi-Square Calculator @
]

Thanks, with help I got the chi-squared integrated now. The most interesting thing is how the chi-squared looks on random data. My data looks more evenly distributed than random data for many parts of my data. All very educational stuff for me, thanks!

Total rolls: 2998
1) 1007 16.79% - 16.67 = (+0.13)--------------------------------------------------- 1
2) 992 16.54% - 16.67 = (-0.12)-------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 977 16.29% - 16.67 = (-0.37)------------------------------------------------- 3
4) 1035 17.26% - 16.67 = (+0.59)---------------------------------------------------- 4
5) 1007 16.79% - 16.67 = (+0.13)--------------------------------------------------- 5
6) 978 16.31% - 16.67 = (-0.36)------------------------------------------------- 6
X**2: 2.40 p: 0.79163
fw 1007,992,977,1035,1007,978 1007,992,977,1035,1007,978

11: ---------------------------------------------------- 2 (77)
21: --------------------------------------------------------------- 3 (187)
22: ------------------------------------------------------------ 4 (89)
31: ------------------------------------------------------- 4 (163)
32: ---------------------------------------------------- 5 (155)
41: ------------------------------------------------------ 5 (161)
33: ---------------------------------------------------- 6 (77)
42: ------------------------------------------------------------ 6 (178)
51: ------------------------------------------------------------- 6 (183)
61: ----------------------------------------------------- 7 (159)
52: -------------------------------------------------- 7 (149)
43: ---------------------------------------------------- 7 (155)
53: ---------------------------------------------------------- 8 (173)
44: ---------------------------------------------------------------- 8 (95)
62: ------------------------------------------------- 8 (145)
63: ----------------------------------------------------------- 9 (177)
54: ------------------------------------------------------------ 9 (179)
55: ---------------------------------------------------------- 10 (87)
64: ---------------------------------------------------------- 10 (172)
65: -------------------------------------------------- 11 (149)
66: ----------------------------------------------------------- 12 (88)
X**2: 22.34 p: 0.32229

2) 77 2.57% - 2.78% = -0.21% (-6.28)-------- 2
3) 187 6.24% - 5.56% = 0.68% (+20.44)------------------- 3
4) 252 8.41% - 8.33% = 0.07% (+2.17)-------------------------- 4
5) 316 10.54% - 11.11% = -0.57% (-17.11)-------------------------------- 5
6) 438 14.61% - 13.89% = 0.72% (+21.61)-------------------------------------------- 6
7) 463 15.44% - 16.67% = -1.22% (-36.67)----------------------------------------------- 7
8) 413 13.78% - 13.89% = -0.11% (-3.39)------------------------------------------ 8
9) 356 11.87% - 11.11% = 0.76% (+22.89)------------------------------------ 9
10) 259 8.64% - 8.33% = 0.31% (+9.17)--------------------------10
11) 149 4.97% - 5.56% = -0.59% (-17.56)---------------11
12) 88 2.94% - 2.78% = 0.16% (+4.72)---------12
X**2: 11.75 p: 0.30230

4:7 ratio is 54.428% - 50.000% = +4.428% (+8.86% diff)
5:7 ratio is 68.251% - 66.667% = +1.584% (+2.38% diff)
6:7 ratio is 94.600% - 83.333% = +11.267% (+13.52% diff)
8:7 ratio is 89.201% - 83.333% = +5.868% (+7.04% diff)
9:7 ratio is 76.890% - 66.667% = +10.223% (+15.33% diff)
10:7 ratio is 55.940% - 50.000% = +5.940% (+11.88% diff)
X**2: 6.65 p: 0.35447

Total sevens 463 - Seven outs 327 (70.63%) - Seven winners 136 (29.37%)
Pairs 513 17.11% - 16.67% = 0.44% (+13.33 rolls)
Hards 348 11.61% - 11.11% = 0.50% (+14.89 rolls)
HiLos 165 5.50% - 5.56% = -0.05% (-1.56 rolls)
H2 77/25 ( 2.57% - 2.78% = -6.28)
H4 89/23 ( 2.97% - 2.78% = +5.72)
H6 77/25 ( 2.57% - 2.78% = -6.28)
H8 95/18 ( 3.17% - 2.78% = +11.72)
H10 87/26 ( 2.90% - 2.78% = +3.72)
H12 88/17 ( 2.94% - 2.78% = +4.72)
EZ: 2485 (82.89% - 83.33% = -13.33)
X**2: 3.49 p: 0.74464

<deleted boring programming details>

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Be sure to tune in tomorrow at 10:30am for the SOOPOO challenge on the Ahigh Show. If you have any questions, please ask. This show will be several hours long and there is no end time specified. It will continue rolling as long as there is interest.

www.ustream.tv/channel/the-ahigh-show

who else has officially recognized bets on the outcome aside from soopoo and me?

take a guess.

Things look like they took a turn at 60 rolls... And during 90-100 Fatigue took over.... Still a great effort....

Live Update from the Event: Taking a food break at 100 rolls. Nick has rolled 20 sevens. Went through a bad stretch right before the break.

He dug a little hole at towards the end... Only 10 sevens left... I know everyone is pulling, but deep down, I think you all know whats about to happen....


He has a great throw, and alot of the sevens were "on the Come out". So I do take that into consideration.... Overall, I would definitely bet with him..


Oh and the stickman is being very generous by not standing as close as they would in a live casino....

Oh And A great job by Ahigh for putting the event together..

20 7s in 100 rolls.
That is not easy to do.
About a 22% chance of 20 or more


Nick had an overall chance of rolling 3 7s in row, at least 1 time, somewhere in 200 rolls
of about 54% and
18% at least 2 times.
he has done it one time.

His chance of 3 7s in a row in the next 100 rolls
at least 1 time
32%

His chance of 2 7s in a row in the next 100 rolls
at least 1 time
91%
at least 2 times
69%
at least 3 times
41%

Make an even money bet, say peanuts for peanuts,
that he does 2 7s in a row at least 2 times in his next 100 rolls

Good Luck and nice entertainment

ummm

he is trying *not* to roll 7s I assume?

I gotta go back and see what the bets were

Live Update: SOOPOO wins the challenge at roll 151.

how many 7s were rolled?

Quote: odiousgambit

how many 7s were rolled?

31.

New Side Bet! Aaron is betting $25 against Mike S.'s $26. if Aaron rolls zero sevens in seven rolls of the dice, he wins the bet. If Aaron rolls two or more sevens, he loses the bet. If he rolls one seven, it is a push.

Quote: teddys

New Side Bet! Aaron is betting $25 against Mike S.'s $26. if Aaron rolls zero sevens in seven rolls of the dice, he wins the bet. If Aaron rolls two or more sevens, he loses the bet. If he rolls one seven, it is a push.

Result of the first trial: two sevens in seven rolls. Mike S. (SOOPOO as proxy) wins.

Update: Aaron played four sequences of seven rolls. He won two and lost two. Result: Aaron wins two dollars from Mike S. (SOOPOO).

Quote: teddys

Result of the first trial: two sevens in seven rolls. Mike S. (SOOPOO as proxy) wins.

Update: Aaron played four sequences of seven rolls. He won two and lost two. Result: Aaron wins two dollars from Mike S. (SOOPOO).

I can't find any of the prior discussion. What was fair odds on that?

whoa! fifty bones coming my way!

my prediction soopoo would kill the golden goose no doubt has come to pass

Quote: odiousgambit

I can't find any of the prior discussion. What was fair odds on that?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13094-next-show-is-the-march-11th-show/2/#post222460

Quote: Wizard

As far as sweetening the odds, I will pay 1.04, or 26 to 25, for zero sevens. This would have a house edge of 4.00% for a random shooter, and a player edge of 5.00% for a 15% sevens shooter. I'll entrust SOOPOO to book bets on my behalf of $25 (to win $26). I will also entrust SOOPOO to examine the caliper and dice.

Hey we all had a good time and thanks to all the members who showed up! I won $2!!! Woo hoo!

But special thanks go out to Nick! He did what nobody else was willing to do, and he was off to a great start!

Here are Nick's 204 rolls that he did while he was here:

Total rolls: 204
1) 77 18.87% - 16.67 = (+2.21)--------------------------------------------------------- 1
2) 62 15.20% - 16.67 = (-1.47)---------------------------------------------- 2
3) 72 17.65% - 16.67 = (+0.98)----------------------------------------------------- 3
4) 68 16.67% - 16.67 = (+0.00)--------------------------------------------------- 4
5) 63 15.44% - 16.67 = (-1.23)----------------------------------------------- 5
6) 66 16.18% - 16.67 = (-0.49)------------------------------------------------- 6
X**2: 2.38 p: 0.79410
fw 77,62,72,68,63,66 77,62,72,68,63,66

11: ---------------------- 2 (11)
21: ------ 3 (6)
22: ------------ 4 (6)
31: --------------- 4 (15)
32: --------------- 5 (15)
41: ------------ 5 (12)
33: ------------ 6 (6)
42: ----- 6 (5)
51: ------- 6 (7)
61: --------------- 7 (15)
52: ----------- 7 (11)
43: ------------- 7 (13)
53: ---------- 8 (10)
44: -------- 8 (4)
62: ------------- 8 (13)
63: ------- 9 (7)
54: ----------------- 9 (17)
55: -------- 10 (4)
64: ------------- 10 (13)
65: ---------- 11 (10)
66: -------- 12 (4)
X**2: 29.78 p: 0.07346

2) 11 5.39% - 2.78% = 2.61% (+5.33)----------------- 2
3) 6 2.94% - 5.56% = -2.61% (-5.33)--------- 3
4) 21 10.29% - 8.33% = 1.96% (+4.00)------------------------------- 4
5) 27 13.24% - 11.11% = 2.12% (+4.33)---------------------------------------- 5
6) 18 8.82% - 13.89% = -5.07% (-10.33)--------------------------- 6
7) 39 19.12% - 16.67% = 2.45% (+5.00)---------------------------------------------------------- 7
8) 27 13.24% - 13.89% = -0.65% (-1.33)---------------------------------------- 8
9) 24 11.76% - 11.11% = 0.65% (+1.33)------------------------------------ 9
10) 17 8.33% - 8.33% = 0.00% (+0.00)--------------------------10
11) 10 4.90% - 5.56% = -0.65% (-1.33)---------------11
12) 4 1.96% - 2.78% = -0.82% (-1.67)------12
X**2: 14.59 p: 0.14769
4:7 ratio is 53.846% - 50.000% = +3.846% (+7.69% diff)
5:7 ratio is 69.231% - 66.667% = +2.564% (+3.85% diff)
6:7 ratio is 46.154% - 83.333% = -37.179% (-44.62% diff)
8:7 ratio is 69.231% - 83.333% = -14.103% (-16.92% diff)
9:7 ratio is 61.538% - 66.667% = -5.128% (-7.69% diff)
10:7 ratio is 43.590% - 50.000% = -6.410% (-12.82% diff)
X**2: 6.25 p: 0.39562

Total sevens 39 - Seven outs 25 (64.10%) - Seven winners 14 (35.90%)
Pairs 35 17.16% - 16.67% = 0.49% (+1.00 rolls)
Hards 20 9.80% - 11.11% = -1.31% (-2.67 rolls)
HiLos 15 7.35% - 5.56% = 1.80% (+3.67 rolls)
H2 11/6 ( 5.39% - 2.78% = +5.33)
H4 6/3 ( 2.94% - 2.78% = +0.33)
H6 6/0 ( 2.94% - 2.78% = +0.33)
H8 4/2 ( 1.96% - 2.78% = -1.67)
H10 4/1 ( 1.96% - 2.78% = -1.67)
H12 4/3 ( 1.96% - 2.78% = -1.67)
EZ: 169 (82.84% - 83.33% = -1.00)
X**2: 6.54 p: 0.36597

# Rolls
a 11`54`11`42`22`55`62`65`64`54`53`54`54`62`11`51`62`43`61`63`61`64`31`65`65`11`43`51`43`52
a 23`54`53`53`54`64`31`42`31`54`65`53`51`53`51`31`62`42`65`23`41`52`52`42`43`53`44`31`63`23
a 52`22`54`23`52`61`62`41`41`31`13`55`63`63`23`12`41`54`22`54`52`65`43`62`43`54`51`23`12`54
a 65`23`52`61`43`64`61`55`64`52`11`31`33`31`31`66`62`12`51`12`13`61`51`44`23`11`61`54`62`64
a 12`33`52`43`64`53`65`64`11`12`66`61`43`66`11`13`62`33`23`43`44`61`54`61`54`23`13`61`62`41
a 52`41`43`61`63`65`32`61`66`11`64`53`11`55`63`65`31`64`41`41`62`33`23`52`41`41`62`33`61`22
a 41`54`23`64`41`23`43`23`42`33`61`22`62`11`53`22`44`53`43`54`31`64`64`63

From my vantage point in the way that I analyze throws, Nick looked to have results that were not fitting an expected distribution. But the results were unfavorable results for this challenge (too many sevens).

If you look at the p-values for the 21 various outcomes, his P-values show his results to not be very likely to occur under normal conditions at 1 in 13.61.

My last fourteen rolls were with no sevens, which SOOPOO pointed out is (5/6)**14 or a chance of about 1 in 12.8. So his performance was more unlikely than my performance of rolling 14 rolls at the end with no seven! From that perspective, both are worthy of some consideration that it might not be randomness that is occurring here.

Also, Nick started with 16 rolls with no sevens at all!!!! Only one in 18.48 chance to randomly get 16 no sevens in a row. So he was off to a stellar start!

But the bets that were for fun were absolutely fun, and I want to thank everyone again for coming here to participate.

Will we hear from Nick I wonder?

Quote: teddys

Result of the first trial: two sevens in seven rolls. Mike S. (SOOPOO as proxy) wins.

Update: Aaron played four sequences of seven rolls. He won two and lost two. Result: Aaron wins two dollars from Mike S. (SOOPOO).

Thanks for the live updates Teddy, I was at work and couldn't watch. Thanks Aaron for putting it together.

Quote: sodawater

whoa! fifty bones coming my way!

Yikes! After the challenge Nickolay tried to give me $300 but I told him he only owed me $250. If I was supposed to pick up your $50 I didn't remember. Nickolay is an honorable man. If you send him a pm he will figure out a way to get you the money he owes you.

By the way, I posted a summary of my take on the events on the other thread, the March 11 Ahigh show thread.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Thanks for the live updates Teddy, I was at work and couldn't watch. Thanks Aaron for putting it together.

Yeah! It was a blast! I hope it's the first of many. Thanks again to Nick for being the only guy willing to test his throws in a live broadcast.

Much easier to say you're a good shot and talk about the times that you won than to get up and in front of a camera and audience.

So he's a champ for that!

Also those first few rolls were AWESOME! I think SOOPOO was feeling like he might lose for the first few minutes.

The computer said from his results that there was only about a 5% chance that his results were the expected distribution!

So it's plausible that he has a great shot and just needs to know how to set the dice better.

He was banging the aces!!

Received email about the show being on. What happened? Who was the second masked man, SuperRick??

Quote: DeMango

Received email about the show being on. What happened? Who was the second masked man, SuperRick??

The Avenger.

Quote: Ahigh

Yeah! It was a blast! I hope it's the first of many. Thanks again to Nick for being the only guy willing to test his throws in a live broadcast.

Much easier to say you're a good shot and talk about the times that you won than to get up and in front of a camera and audience.

So he's a champ for that!

Also those first few rolls were AWESOME! I think SOOPOO was feeling like he might lose for the first few minutes.

Totally true! At one point he was doing so well that if the rest of his rolls were just 1/6 sevens he would have been within one seven of winning. But as occurred, he rolled 29 sevens in I think 130 rolls, a startlingly high number!

Quote: DeMango

Received email about the show being on. What happened? Who was the second masked man, SuperRick??

Yeah the Avenger is concerned about being identified in the casinos. His ratio of sevens for the rolls he did was about average except for a nice little spurt in the middle with no sevens, but he was showing heavy results from the top of his set (as I did for a similar set and throw when I believed in that ridiculous stuff).

He almost beat the SOOPOO challenge with that lucky spurt in there. Ironically, I prodded him with the challenge, "Alright Avenger, let's see that run up!"

http://youtu.be/49WZykwCg18?t=32m45s (NOTE: if it says "video unavailable" close the window and follow the link again .. this happens with videos that are this long -- it's over 2 hours long).

If you start watching at the 32 minute 45 second point you can see the run up with the smallest ratio of sevens on the sliding window.

He barely missed the SOOPOO challenge of 30 or fewer sevens in 200 rolls even though he had a horrible start.

This challenge is tougher than most people realize. I thank the Avenger for putting himself in front of the camera mask or no mask.

This is something that so far only two people have been willing to do now.

The Avenger would also like people to know that he has another shot he did not want to present on camera that he uses in the casino more often and also that this shot was being done as quickly as possible.

I also want to point out, and it's easy to see, that many of these rolls were short and would not be tolerated in the Las Vegas casinos that I frequent.

For the record, here's a link where I review myself doing 25 sevens in 200 rolls (an RSR of 8.00).

http://youtu.be/xUZEgLtIt0s?t=1h26m21s

So SOOPOO challenge is do 30 or fewer in 200. I do that on average with my damn good luck. My challenge is come on the Ahigh show and beat me (fewer than 25 sevens in 200 rolls), and I'll give you $20. If you don't make it, you just lose the time spent trying.

Of course this is all just random luck. We all know that now. But somebody can certainly be more lucky than me for a free $20!!!

The chi-squared test for an SRR of 8.00 in 200 throws says that a distribution like this unlikely (including more sevens as well as fewer) about 1 in 8.78 occurrences. So half of those being more sevens, the chance of randomly beating this is 1 in 17.56. So my offer is worth about $1.13 on average and it's a small price to pay for someone to try to randomly beat me with their good luck being better than mine.

Goddamn I am lucky!!!

Ahigh,
Good show last night! I enjoyed the heck out of it.
Thanks for all your and the shooter's efforts.

When you showed some slo-mo, was that the casio?
Have you quit using the go-pro altogether?

I'd like your program to make it on tv, perhaps that "breaking Vegas show"

Petro

Quote: petroglyph

When you showed some slo-mo, was that the casio?
Have you quit using the go-pro altogether?

Yeah, the Casio kicks ass. That playback system has integrated scrubbing and integrated editing. I believe the internal format used is a quicktime format which is better for scrubbing, and it scrubs and frame advances forwards and backwards right from the camera to 1080i HDMI output.

The GoPro gives you better quality at 720p120 and 848x480@240Hz. But not as good for using on the show except for the wide angle. The quality is MUCH higher on the GoPro though.

I use the GoPro for giving the viewer a wide angle shot of the shooter.

The GoPro, however, needs an $85 adapter to get it to work with my switcher (the Gefen HDMI detective) since it doesn't want to output 1080i unless coerced with this little box and my switcher requires it all to be 1080i.

*sigh*. Lots of technical details.

We would have been better off with someone manning the switcher a little more, but we did alright to record the Avenger's rolls.

Quote: Ahigh

I also want to point out, and it's easy to see, that many of these rolls were short and would not be tolerated in the Las Vegas casinos that I frequent.

If you discard those rolls that would not be tolerated, what was the p-value for the observed distribution of allowable rolls?

Quote: MathExtremist

If you discard those rolls that would not be tolerated, what was the p-value for the observed distribution of allowable rolls?

If anyone wants to provide roll data with which rolls have one die coming up short, which have two die coming up short and which rolls have both dice hitting the back wall, I can analyze the rolls from there.

Quote: Ahigh

If anyone wants to provide roll data with which rolls have one die coming up short, which have two die coming up short and which rolls have both dice hitting the back wall, I can analyze the rolls from there.

Don't you already have that for the rolls in your videos?

Does that guy eat gravel for lunch?

Quote: MathExtremist

Don't you already have that for the rolls in your videos?

Yes, but I need it in text format. You want to do it?

Quote: TIMSPEED

Does that guy eat gravel for lunch?

There is so much comical value to this whole show.

I really hope that someone can demonstrate better results on a RSR with a 100% legal shot, or at least a shot that would be tolerated that long in a casino.

I don't know a single casino in Vegas that would not take the dice away if the shooter was winning on throws like that.

I am starting to get harassed for how long I take to shoot, and my shots are pretty clean.

Shorties aren't tolerated for winners.

I'm resigned to everything is just random and I'm just lucky.

But there could be evidence of influence dependent on short rolls here. I don't really know without digging further.

But the rolls aren't really going to be tolerated, so it's pretty much moot anyway.

Quote: Ahigh

He barely missed the SOOPOO challenge of 30 or fewer sevens in 200 rolls even though he had a horrible start.

This challenge is tougher than most people realize.

Yep.
That is simply from the fact that the probability of rolling 30 7s or fewer in 200 tosses is only 30%.
That to me says, on average, 3 out of 10 will win the challenge. Not even close to a majority.

Quote: Ahigh

So SOOPOO challenge is do 30 or fewer in 200.
I do that on average with my damn good luck.

Your documented 2,998 rolls would be 15 SOOPOO challenges completed.

of course you were not "trying" to win a challenge during your rolls.
But you have mentioned you do roll less 7s on average.
And one set includes your biased dice session too.

If this was your challenge series (best of 15)
Here are the # of 7s rolled per 200 roll sets
1: 24 won
2: 28 won
3: 31
4: 40
5: 29 won
6: 37
7: 29 won
8:20 won
9: 33
10: 31
11: 32
12: 41
13: 21 won
14: 32
15: 35

Looks like you had 2 sets worse than Nick's 39 (he just had a bad day)

And any set over 30 7s rolled you lost the challenge
Ouch, twice you had 31, just one too many.
(that would have made 8 win and 7 loss had each set just one less)

15 total completed challenges
You won... 6 times
The first 8 you won 5 times

You lost... 9 times
The last 7 sets shows 1 win and 6 loss

Would be interesting to see if you could better
6 wins out of 15 tries over your
next 3,000 rolls.

You have done better than I have.
Here was my try last weekend. 800 rolls.
I rolled as fast as they sent the dice to me. (not in a real casino)
35
25 won
34
38
I won just 1 out of 4 tries.
Just about average when you add them all up

Have you thought about adding hardways to the challenge??? To show "on axis" shooting

Quote: TheWolf713

Have you thought about adding hardways to the challenge??? To show "on axis" shooting

I have zero evidence that axis shooting exists. Nobody has provided me any, and I have not seen any data that supports it.

I actually don't even understand on-axis shooting.

However, hardways are also the results of a hardway set with correlation theory applied. More hardways and fewer sevens is the theory as best as I understand it assuming you put the ace and the six face on the axis of rotation for your shot.

Just for kicks...

Why don't you put a couple of random pass and don't pass bets with odds on the layout just to see what it does to the shots/rolls/results.

AHigh,


Im watching the last show with the avenger.... He shot well... With that being said. he didn't hit the back wall ALOT... And not just a few...ALOT.. It was pretty much a old School blanket roll type shot.(my uncle shot like this) That influence, I wouldn't argue. But risking getting booted from the casino every other trip is not how I roll (no pun intended). And It was still the "R" word... but An OK day at the office... From what I've watched so far.


That shot without the back wall can be debated as influence...He is only dealing with felt..... but that back wall in "influence" is what makes all the difference...

I really do appreciate your work... Im not just sitting here with the "pessimist" face....

Good show

Oh and if you get one more guy with a mask, You all could be the "AVENGERS"!!!!! or rob a bank... LOL

Quote: Ahigh

I have zero evidence that axis shooting exists.

I'm just curious about this one. If "axis shooting" (keeping dice on axis) does not exist, how do you know that you are influencing the dice? What method are you using? What are you doing to keep dice from either increasing the number of 7s or decreasing the number of 7s?

I always thought that the entire premise of dice influencing and dice control was keeping dice on axis? Now it isn't?

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/4

My official opinion is that it is all 100% random and I am just lucky.

I am not currently in process to do any work for anyone to prove anything any longer.

But there is data to support the idea that correlation shooting is possible. That data has been published.

I have no such data for axis shooting.

The data I have supporting correlation shooting is this:

Observed: 461.0 sevens - 2537.0 non sevens RSR 6.5033
Expected: 499.7 sevens - 2498.3 non sevens RSR 6.0000
X**2: 3.59 p: 0.05810

But it is not proof. I have just been lucky so far to have gotten so few sevens.

Here is the data that would be used for correlation shooting. This would show fewer 1's and 6's if I had correlation bias with my throw, but I don't. And the distribution is pretty flat.

1) 1007 16.79% - 16.67 = (+0.13)--------------------------------------------------- 1
2) 992 16.54% - 16.67 = (-0.12)-------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 977 16.29% - 16.67 = (-0.37)------------------------------------------------- 3
4) 1035 17.26% - 16.67 = (+0.59)---------------------------------------------------- 4
5) 1007 16.79% - 16.67 = (+0.13)--------------------------------------------------- 5
6) 978 16.31% - 16.67 = (-0.36)------------------------------------------------- 6
X**2: 2.40 p: 0.79163