Choosing Don't Pass/Don't Come Instead

So I was kinda wondering some things.

When I started playing craps not long ago I decided that if I was gonna play I would only make bets that had the the lowest house edge. Blackjack is normally my game and although I learned it and started playing it originally cuz I just think the game is fun, not taking into consideration anything else at the time, I quickly liked the fact that, even with the swing in rule variations from table to table and casino to casino, the house edge stays really low in perfect play and I'm able to have fun and get my player's card comps worth. When comparing playing blackjack properly versus the tons of other bets I could be making in the casinos which often carry waaaaay higher house edges against my bets I feel good about it overall.

I like choosing the lower house edge bets in games and usually follow this method of playing when gambling. For example, I often only bet Banker in Baccarat, find single zero roulette tables, and try to play the $1 slots as opposed to the penny slots. (The funny thing is, and I don't know the terminology - maybe I'm thinking it's "expected loss" - but I know mathematically that if I place a higher bet to get the benefit of the lower house edge my "expected loss" is actually higher cuz of the extra money I'm putting up up front). But nevertheless this is how I usually seek out games and bets.

Anyway, when I play craps I always bet the passline and make come bets, always taking full odds on each bet. I even place odds on my new come bet (sorry, I forget what that's called when they move it up there) when someone sevens out, and ask them to keep my odds on and working at all times. Again, this is all to make the bet that carries the lowest house edge.

However, I have remembered all along that if were to play the DON'T pass and DON'T come bets instead, this actually is the way to keep the house edge the lowest. So technically I am breaking my own "rules" just to play along with the table and not feel weird like I'm betting against everyone.

So I have a few questions:
1. Do you think I should switch to betting DON'T pass and DON'T come instead?
2. Do the DON'T come bets work the same where I am able to place odds on each one once they are "moved" to their spots (sorry about the terminology again).
3. Am I allowed to keep my odds working on these "DON'T" bets during the come out roll?
4. Is it stupid that I place odds on a bet that was just "moved" and keep them working while waiting for a new come out roll? In other words, is it better to just place odds once on any bet only after the point is set? (In this question I am looking for a mathematical answer, not just an opinion).

Sorry, I hope I didn't confuse any of you. My prediction is that this thread will probably not get any responses anyway as it's not the most interesting of questions to be asking on this forum!

1. No. (Just an opinion.) It's completely up to what you like. Mathematically, don't is better in theory. If you play regularly for the rest of your life, you might be able to detect the difference in the real world. There is very, very little difference between the do and the don't.

2. Yes.

3. Yes. I think that may be the default on the don'ts. I never play them, so I'm not certain.

4. Math theory: odds bets never change the expected $ value of the outcome no matter when they are played. If you are going to wager the same total amount of money over the course of a session, you come out better by putting as much of it as possible on odds bets. If making odds wagers increases the total amount you are going to be wagering, then you are increasing the variance (volatility) of your session without changing the expected value (average outcome).

Recent Discussion

Although your questions have already been answered directly, a few days ago someone else was interested in the dark side and posted. I'd recommend you look through that, might answer some questions you didn't think of asking.

My 2 cents.
1. The very slight advantage of the don't pass over the pass would not come into play unless you play a lot of Craps, just as posted above.

The BIG difference I see is it takes between 40% to 60% larger bankrolls to play the don't with max odds compared to the pass with odds per session.
Most don't bettors are seriously underfunded when they make don't bets every roll and take full odds.
It is also true that most all Craps players have NO clue to the proper bankroll needed to make a series of bets with odds in any playing session.

I think mustangsally is making a Risk of Ruin table for this type of betting in Craps.
I have not seen a completed version yet.

2. Yes
3. Yes. by default, as Doc mentioned, the "Lay Odds" are always working.

I had another question earlier and it slipped my mind when I made my original post.

5. For the majority of the time I've been playing craps I always bet on the passline and EVERY come bet I could. The effect of this I noticed was that my bank roll would basically imitate an accordion, shooting way up or way down rather quickly. Recently I was playing but was hesitant as I didn't have a too sizeable bank roll, and one of the table men suggested that I bet the passline and up to 2 come bets, saying that this was "the norm" and that for me to bet on every come bet was not the norm. Is it smarter to just make up to 2 to 3 come bets and then stop there? I noticed my bank roll still went way up and way down quickly like normal when I capped it at 2 to 3. I am just wondering if it would actually be smarter to bet less come bets since once the shooter craps out they're ALL wiped away at once and maybe it's best, mathematically, to not keep throwing down money that with each roll will raise the chance that that new bet will get wiped out quicker than each preceding one.

I'm a believer in the two or three Come Bets and then STOP and await results.

I became a believer after I had come bets sufficient to cover every number and the dealer said "you are all over the place" ... and then the Seven rolled and I lost everything.

So I'm Pass Line with Odds, two or three Come Bets with Odds and then I pause and see what happens. Sometimes I'll go DontCome because I feel that Seven is "DUE" in just a few rolls I'll and see what happens but, as stated above, a determined Dark Side Bettor really needs a larger bankroll to do it correctly.

Quote: HotBlonde

I had another question earlier and it slipped my mind when I made my original post.

5. For the majority of the time I've been playing craps I always bet on the passline and EVERY come bet I could. The effect of this I noticed was that my bank roll would basically imitate an accordion, shooting way up or way down rather quickly. Recently I was playing but was hesitant as I didn't have a too sizeable bank roll, and one of the table men suggested that I bet the passline and up to 2 come bets, saying that this was "the norm" and that for me to bet on every come bet was not the norm. Is it smarter to just make up to 2 to 3 come bets and then stop there? I noticed my bank roll still went way up and way down quickly like normal when I capped it at 2 to 3.
I am just wondering if it would actually be smarter to bet less come bets since once the shooter craps out they're ALL wiped away at once and maybe it's best, mathematically, to not keep throwing down money that with each roll will raise the chance that that new bet will get wiped out quicker than each preceding one.

Pass PLUS 2 come bets is called the Ponzer method, why?, or 3 point Molly, etc and it is just a better or smarter way to play with limited bankrolls.
See my post here on the number of come points you can expect to have in 100 rolls.
Come bet points

I re-post some data here (per 100 rolls)
having max 1 come point avg: 16 come points (bets with odds) and 24 average total come bets made per 100 rolls
having max 2 come point avg: 29 come points (bets with odds) and 43 average total come bets made
having max 3 come point avg: 38 come points (bets with odds) and 57 average total come bets made
having max 4 come point avg: 44 come points (bets with odds) and 66 average total come bets made
having max 5 come point avg: 47 come points (bets with odds) and 71 average total come bets made
having max 6 come point avg: 48 come points (bets with odds)

It is true that the more come bets one makes increases the expected loss, but that can be compensated by taking the odds bet that has NO house edge.
Place bettors forget about this point.

Bankroll swings can be wide since you are adding lots of variance when you add even one come bet with odds.

It all depends on what you want to accomplish at the table.

Play for a long time with a decent chance of winning. pass or don't pass with max odds gives you that.
It does not give you more action.
Only more bets will do that.

For hitting session win goals, you need the proper bankroll for the average size and number of bets to have the highest probability of hitting any win goal.
That is for another thread.

I haven't put this into practice in a casino (because I can't bring myself to play a negative game and haven't had a social event to make it worth the expected loss) but have been getting pretty decent bankroll longevity in simulation (iPhone Aww Craps) with this "system":

1. Pass line, max odds
2. One come bet, max odds
3. Seven Out I go to step one and repeat.
4. If a come bet hits, replace it with another come bet.
5. If the point is hit, back on the pass line and add a come bet for now three numbers working. Get another number working for every point hit. If a point replaces a come bet, make another come bet until the proper quantity of numbers are working. On any Seven Out I go back to pass line + one come bet and start over.

If a couple or three come bets hit without a point I'll increase the numbers working by one.

I suppose if I got all the numbers covered I'd take the flat bets to $5 with max odds and always have a come bet out there.

I've been running it at $3 with 5x odds. Pretty sure I can find that at Suncoast during the week and several of the stations if I look for it. Something else I do is press the pass line or come bet from $3 to $5 on any winning 11 (not 7), again with max odds if it ends up working. On the computer I find $200 usually (but not always) lasts a good while, even when doing $1 tokes - on the hardways when we would both win on the number - every once in a while.

I find it gets the action up when someone has a good roll, but you avoid the Point, Place 6&8, Seven sequence that just, well, gets frustrating. At least with this you get paid for the come bet when it happens.

Quote: QuadDeuces

4. If a come bet hits, replace it with another come bet.

Replacement of the same bet is really key for the way you are playing, HB, if I understand it. Getting more than 2 points working, yeah with a hot roller you could do OK, but probably just OK. When that roller keeps hitting the same numbers before 7-out, and you then have to make another come bet to keep your action level, you get the payoff with much better safety. It's when you can really clean up. Naturally the circumstance has to be waited for.

Quote: Doc

Math theory: odds bets never change the expected $ value of the outcome no matter when they are played. If you are going to wager the same total amount of money over the course of a session, you come out better by putting as much of it as possible on odds bets. If making odds wagers increases the total amount you are going to be wagering, then you are increasing the variance (volatility) of your session without changing the expected value (average outcome).

Think about what this means, HB. Put yourself in the Casino owners' shoes: Would you really care if a particular gambler stands at, say, a 2x table and makes 300 $10 minimum passline bets in a session, then on a different session makes 300 of the same but adds the free odds? In one scenario the player has risked $3000 and in the other about $7500; this seems to say that $3000 in action was what the player really wants, but is risking more money thinking the extra betting will make them more lucky.

However, if the gambler keeps the risk the same ... $3000 ... but only makes about 120 bets, that is different. The casino should care if all the players reacted the same way to the free odds offered. They would now truly have lowered both the HE and the EV, because the amount bet has changed.

Of course this means a shorter session. The only way it will satisfy is if the action is enough. This is what has to be worked out, but in any case the scenario of the bettor betting more when the passline action is only what the player needs, that is foolishness IMO.

btw I have come to start thinking this is why you see casino reluctance on 10x, 20x and more. They might find at that level the players really do often bet less. At 2x or 3x4x5x , not much changes. I have quit thinking the casinos care that much about the increase in variance.

From a resurrected thread of eons ago:

Best craps system?
That Elliot article considers: [A Statistical Characterization and Comparison of Selected Craps Money Management and Bet Selection Systems. Ken Elliot. Kbeiico. Columbia, MD 21046
Also in: Mathematical and Quantitative analysis of gambling by Vancura.]

Pass w/ Full Double Odds
Simultaneous PassLine/DontPassLine w/ Full Double Odds on the PassLine bet.
Hoyle's Press: Switch between Right and Wrong betting on win or 3 losses. Bet Progression.
Ponzer: PassLine w/ two ComeBets. All with full double odds.
D'Alembert: PassLine w/ betting progression
Contra-D'Alembert: If win increase PassLine bet by one unit.
Martingale: Double Up To Catch Up: Doubles a bet on each loss.
Anti-Martingale: Double bet on a win, start over on a loss.
Oscar: Endless flat betting.
Five Count: Do/Dont Straddle for four numbers. Betting progression restarted on each Seven.
Patrick Basic Right System: PassLine plus Place the 6/8.
31 System: Betting progression based on nine plateaus.
Don'tPass/Place System: DontPass, Place The Point, DontCome
Rec. Gambling Place-Lay system: Place Inside Numbers with a NOFour lay bet of 50.

Since I subscribe to the Wizard's Commandment of Thou Shalt Not Hedge Thy Bets, I won't include any discussion of these simultaneous Do/Dont straddles that are attempts to catch trends.

Ken Elliot's article sets forth on a few categories for these systems:

Negative Skew: Increase bets on a loss, many small wins.
Positive Skew: Many small losses. Hope for big win.
Normal: No bet progression, no hedging.

I have a personal bias towards flat betting systems or atleast simple progression systems since I just can't do simple math even while sober, much less after a few free drinks.

The key analysis point seems to be his table of Standard Deviation of Final Bankroll, but I question whether even the 800 rolls simulation is a sufficient determination. Ofcourse, perhaps the 100 roll simulation is more realistic of any one gambler's sessions.

So my verdict is. Best is DontPass with Two Don't Come Bets w/ odds.