Crappy Craps
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Why were you not playing on the Don't Side?
Yes. You're playing craps.
You are making high variance bets and risking 20-24% of your bankroll from the start.Quote: winmonkeyspit3I busted out within 15 minutes all 3 times. Am I doing something terribly wrong?
A quick sim can show some results.
All players played until ruin and they all ruined their $200 bankroll.
There was no pressing going on.
Rolls to Ruin (14 to X) 14 rolls was the min
1 in 34 busted out before 30 rolls
about 10 out of 46 busted out before 60 rolls (about 1 in 5)
14-30 2.9%
60 21.7%
100 38.8%
152 median
200 57.55%
300 65.65%This was with no place bets on 5 or 9
That will decrease the number of rolls for ruin.
I played and tracked 609 rolls at the WoV Craps game watching NCAA BBall today.Quote: PeteMI play the WOV Craps game constantly, A: to scratch an itch, and B: trying to fashion something resembling a coherent betting pattern. Lately I'm just about convinced that the random numbers generator is set to throw a seven about every third or fourth throw.
ev 101.5 7s
actual 102 7s
So I looked a little closer.
Looks like 5 more 7s than expected did not get past 4 rolls
But for 5 rolls they were dead on. Hmmm.
But 4 more than expected got past 13 rolls. (only 1 in 10 on average do)
Looks to me to be a very useful and accurate RNG.
I suggest you do your own tally and present the numbers.
Maybe they are off on even numbered days!
| roll | freq | cumulative | at least | ev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 15 | 0.166666667 | 17.00 |
| 2 | 18 | 33 | 0.305555556 | 31.17 |
| 3 | 14 | 47 | 0.421296296 | 42.97 |
| 4 | 11 | 58 | 0.517746914 | 52.81 |
| 5 | 3 | 61 | 0.598122428 | 61.01 |
| 6 | 5 | 66 | 0.665102023 | 67.84 |
| 7 | 8 | 74 | 0.720918353 | 73.53 |
| 8 | 4 | 78 | 0.767431961 | 78.28 |
| 9 | 4 | 82 | 0.806193301 | 82.23 |
| 10 | 2 | 84 | 0.838494417 | 85.53 |
| 11 | 1 | 85 | 0.865412014 | 88.27 |
| 12 | 2 | 87 | 0.887843345 | 90.56 |
| 13 | 1 | 88 | 0.906536121 | 92.47 |
| 14 | 3 | 91 | 0.922113434 | 94.06 |
| 15 | 4 | 95 | 0.935094528 | 95.38 |
| 16 | 4 | 99 | 0.945912107 | 96.48 |
| 17 | 0 | 99 | 0.954926756 | 97.40 |
| 18 | 0 | 99 | 0.962438963 | 98.17 |
| 19 | 1 | 100 | 0.968699136 | 98.81 |
| 20 | 0 | 100 | 0.973915947 | 99.34 |
| 21 | 0 | 100 | 0.978263289 | 99.78 |
| 22 | 0 | 100 | 0.981886074 | 100.15 |
| 23 | 0 | 100 | 0.984905062 | 100.46 |
| 24 | 1 | 101 | 0.987420885 | 100.72 |
| 25 | 0 | 101 | 0.989517404 | 100.93 |
| 26 | 1 | 102 | 0.991264503 | 101.11 |
In the mean time, I'd recommend that you lower your variance by playing 2x odds with a come bet.
Quote: ten2winNo. It be like that sometimes.
Indeed.
If you will indulge me in my superstitions I can tell you exactly what you did wrong. You bought in each time with an insufficient bankroll. This gives the dice a gigantic hard-on for you. The dice see a small shrinking bankroll and they have 'got to have it' something fierce! As you can see, the mathematically inclined can show you the numbers but with experience your gut can tell you the same thing.
Don't feel bad, many of us who love Craps toy around with it and the truth is we don't have the bankroll. My tolerance for the variance is often tested to the point of breaking. In my case, it isn't so much the bankroll I *could* bring but the losses I will allow in my gambling per year. I really often have to shake my head when I compare the expected loss of my play to the actual loss and in fact am currently grumbling that it is about 10x EV. This is emphasized when I look at the pittance I earn in comps vis a vis the losses [lately]. No wonder players start to think the casino is cheating them!
Quote: winmonkeyspit3What am I doing wrong? I played craps yesterday at a $5 table. I would put 5 on the pass line and take full odds at 3x4x5x. I would make 6 dollar place bets on the 6 and 8, occasionally 5 dollars on the 9 or 5 if I was feeling it. I made no sucker bets at all. I played 3 times, buying in for 200 each time. I busted out within 15 minutes all 3 times. Am I doing something terribly wrong?
Typically, your bankroll should be between 200 and 400 times your base bet, so for you, between $1,000 and $2,000 minimum, and your quick run of bad luck illustrates just why. Further, to reduce variance, you probably want to stick to just single odds behind your line, as the very first multiplier puts the biggest dent in the overall Pass Line house edge, taking it down from 1.41% to just 0.85%, more than half of a percent, whereas taking 2X odds only brings the edge down another 0.24% and dramatically increases your variance during "choppy" sessions.
Quote: winmonkeyspit3What am I doing wrong? I played craps yesterday at a $5 table. I would put 5 on the pass line and take full odds at 3x4x5x. I would make 6 dollar place bets on the 6 and 8, occasionally 5 dollars on the 9 or 5 if I was feeling it. I made no sucker bets at all. I played 3 times, buying in for 200 each time. I busted out within 15 minutes all 3 times. Am I doing something terribly wrong?
welcome to the wonderful world of carps....the game has a high variance...just think if you were betting the Don't pass with odds instead of the pass line with odd.....you would have made a post about how easy the game of craps is and everyone should play because you always win ;)....Craps and BJ are the same for me(the only two games I play)....at both of them I can sit down with a $5 bankroll play conservative and still be felted in 20 min......
The odds do reduce the relative house edge as a percentage of money wagered. I like to buy in for about ten my average bet. $200 buys me five dollar line bets with double odds and a single number. Works for me, mightnot for others.
I think I did better at Craps sticking to the Pass Line before I learned what the Come Bets were.
Quote: FleaStiffI think I did better at Craps sticking to the Pass Line before I learned what the Come Bets were.
This makes sense since less of your BR was exposed to the overall negative house edge.
Come bets are tough to recoup unless the shooter has an extended roll filled with repeaters. You may end up establishing three come bets, repeating one then losing two (or more if you went off and on, or pressed), or get nailed by a come out seven after the shooter makes a point.
As I recall, the average roll is somewhere between three and four throws before a seven appears. Just enough to get a Come bet or two established.
You need discipline, management, knowledge, and realistic expectations. Once you have decided that you have all four of these attributes, let me know and Ill give you some tips.
Quote: WatchMeWinHere's what you are doing wrong... bitching about not being able to win. Once you have figured it out, you won't need to post beatings.
You need discipline, management, knowledge, and realistic expectations. Once you have decided that you have all four of these attributes, let me know and Ill give you some tips.
How long have you been around these boards, WMW? You do realize that you can never win money at craps in the long run*? Have you posted your system for mathematical scrutiny in the "Betting Systems" section?
*barring the discovery of someone who can influence the dice enough to beat the edge for a statistically significant length of time, which has yet to be proven.
If I were to give one piece of advice.. that would be for people to be realistic. Most gamblers can't stop. They think they will continue to win. It just doesnt work that way. One should be happy to win 30% of their investment on any given day. Hell , most people would be happy to make 10% in the stock market over a year. But in the casino, they think they should make 5000% every time they go in.
I was with a buddy a while back who brought 500 bucks with him to the casino. After he won 200 bucks, I told him that it was a nice days work, 40%, why not call it a day. He laughed and said he was going for 2000. He got to being up 500. I told him great job, do you think you are going to repeat this winning run over and over.. he said absolutely. I came back to him 20 minutes later and he was broke. He not only was broke, but asked to borrow from me. I was up 30% for the day. I told him that he was hopeless and that he should never go back to the tables. Some people just can't stop and are unrealistic.
Quote: WatchMeWinIm really not a big talker and am content doing my own thing... don't need the accolades.. However, one day, perhaps this summer, I will invite some folks to play some craps in Vegas. All for fun, good laughs, good times, and at that point... watch me win.
You're welcome to do that at WoVCon ][ on May 12th 2012 at the stroke of noon. The lunch date is set at the Chicago brewing Pub at the 4 Queens Hotel, but the gambling activity is yet to eb determined. Downtown is a good place for craps, too.
Quote:If I were to give one piece of advice.. that would be for people to be realistic. Most gamblers can't stop. They think they will continue to win. It just doesnt work that way. One should be happy to win 30% of their investment on any given day. Hell , most people would be happy to make 10% in the stock market over a year. But in the casino, they think they should make 5000% every time they go in.
I think I should winenough to retire every time I play. I know I won't, though.
Your advice is good, though. Come to think of my last winning sessions, I made approx. $160 starting with $100 at DW, $150 or so starting with $100 at Rapid Craps, and $150 starting with $50 at 3CP at the late Fitz Downtown. I remember the last more clearly. I was up to $170 or so, and lost two in a row, then one one more, and then I decided to quit.
I guess most recreational gamblers think "I've $x to blow on this trip." so we play until the $x is gone. If I score a win, good, that means more money to gamble with.
Tell you what, though, I'll take your advice for next trip. I'll walk away from any table or VP machine when I'm up 30%. Further while I'd still blow through my $x for the trip, I'll set any winnings aside. I'll post how I do, too.
Quote: WatchMeWinIm really not a big talker and am content doing my own thing... don't need the accolades.. However, one day, perhaps this summer, I will invite some folks to play some craps in Vegas. All for fun, good laughs, good times, and at that point... watch me win.
If I were to give one piece of advice.. that would be for people to be realistic. Most gamblers can't stop. They think they will continue to win. It just doesnt work that way. One should be happy to win 30% of their investment on any given day. Hell , most people would be happy to make 10% in the stock market over a year. But in the casino, they think they should make 5000% every time they go in.
I was with a buddy a while back who brought 500 bucks with him to the casino. After he won 200 bucks, I told him that it was a nice days work, 40%, why not call it a day. He laughed and said he was going for 2000. He got to being up 500. I told him great job, do you think you are going to repeat this winning run over and over.. he said absolutely. I came back to him 20 minutes later and he was broke. He not only was broke, but asked to borrow from me. I was up 30% for the day. I told him that he was hopeless and that he should never go back to the tables. Some people just can't stop and are unrealistic.
I'll probably be back to Vegas some point this summer, I would be happy to take you up on that offer.
Quote: WatchMeWinHere's what you are doing wrong... bitching about not being able to win. Once you have figured it out, you won't need to post beatings.
You need discipline, management, knowledge, and realistic expectations. Once you have decided that you have all four of these attributes, let me know and Ill give you some tips.
Really don't appreciate your comments about bitching. I accepted my $600 loss which was already allocated as a part of my recreation money. I don't consider this "beating" to be anything extreme, but the previous replies have been very helpful in reassessing the way I play and manage my gambling budget. I have plenty of discipline and management skills, I've spent hundreds if not a thousand hours at blackjack tables grinding away at stakes that I can afford, and am up in blackjack even though I've seen hundreds bust out in a matter of minutes looking for "hit n runs". I can count down an 8 decker and I've spent hundreds of hours learning every game my casino has to offer. I'm new to craps so I was looking for some advice on how to better manage my money to avoid similar results. They say an idiot it one who does the same thing over and over and expects different results, so I'm just trying to learn from my mistake. If you are only on the forum to gloat about your "hit n run" wins and how you want people to "watch you win", then I really don't care for your advice anyways. Good luck winning on a -EV game in the long run. Thanks but no thanks.
