Is it possible to leave the craps table a winner?

Although I'm pretty good w/ the probabilities, and play a conversative game (pass/odds), I find that I always leave the craps table a loser. I envision my play as a Markov process, where my net value meanders about some initial outlay (e.g. $200), until it hits my hard clamp of $0, at which point I leave the table. I also find that maximizing the odds for a 4,10 point, even though my expected return is 0, the probability of a win is less than 0.33. Perhaps my bankroll is not adequate to support the variance of the game.

This is not a math question, but a request for suggestions for mental triggers that other folks use to leave the table before their bankroll has expired. Thanks!

There are tables that show what your bankroll has to be to have a sufficient cushion against that mean Lady Variance.

So the fault is either in thy bankroll or in thy self.

House edge works relentlessly against the grinder who keeps making minimum bets.

Try setting a time limit rather than a dollar limit. Say, 10 minutes; whatever you have after 10 minutes, leave. Because the way you described it, you are ALWAYS going to play to $0. I don't mean mathematically; I mean it practically. You always leave with nothing because that's how you play; to nothing.

You must not mean that you intentionally play to zero and then wonder if it is possible to leave a winner. I'd say your main problem is low bankroll. You would have close to half your bankroll at risk the first time you place free odds if the table has a $10 minimum. This means leaving a winner would depend on winning right off the bat; you can't risk any other scenario.

You might give this approach a try. It helps slow one's betting while awaiting a hot shooter (which is the only way to win at craps IMO):

www.goldentouchcraps.com/proof.shtml

Try "dice setting". This is where you are throwing the dice in a controlled manner.

Quote: karlthiele

This is not a math question, but a request for suggestions for mental triggers that other folks use to leave the table before their bankroll has expired.

It's definitely possible to leave the craps table a winner. I've done it and a lot of others.

As for mental triggers - you could set intermediate win/loss goals. Like, you have $1,000, aim to get to $1,200 (if you get there, only bet what you have over $1,200, up to the next threshold of $1,500), but not go below $800, and not leave the table with a delta of less than $50. Won't change the EV, but works if you want to win more often.

Quote: Keyser

Try "dice setting". This is where you are throwing the dice in a controlled manner.

Even if dice setting is possible, for any degree of success it requires a level of visual prediction ability and manual dexterity on par with transnational competition shooters and race car pilots. Anyone with that level of ability edging out a living in craps is just burying his talents.

Quote: P90

Even if dice setting is possible, for any degree of success it requires a level of visual prediction ability and manual dexterity on par with transnational competition shooters and race car pilots. Anyone with that level of ability edging out a living in craps is just burying his talents.

Sorry but I should have stated what I really meant. I mean spin shots/slide. Basically like what the APs did at the Wynn when they won the 700k. It's like a helicopter shot.

Is it even still possible without collusion with the dealers? Doesn't seem that way.

Ask the Wynn.

Quote:

Is it possible to leave the craps table a winner?

Short answer: Yes.

I did it in 3 out of 4 sessions this past weekend at various casinos in A.C.

I was betting just the 6/8 place bets except when shooting.

Quote: Keyser

Ask the Wynn.

I don't mean before that incident. I mean after. Which is now.

DJ is on the right track. Place the 6 and 8, and also like pass-odds with these bets. I dont know if it helps overall, but I do like to see a 6 or 8 rolled first before betting these numbers as the 6,8 will disappear in spurts. Whether to press or not is still an open question in my book, sometimes it really helps but most of the time better off not pressing. On the good hands, you will sure see a bunch of 6 and 8s rolled, you can count on that.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Short answer: Yes. I did it in 3 out of 4 sessions this past weekend at various casinos in A.C.

Ditto on those numbers for me over the weekend at the Boat and the Nugget. Except that I was on the DC.

Quote: karlthiele

Although I'm pretty good w/ the probabilities, and play a conversative game (pass/odds), I find that I always leave the craps table a loser. I envision my play as a Markov process, where my net value meanders about some initial outlay (e.g. $200), until it hits my hard clamp of $0, at which point I leave the table. I also find that maximizing the odds for a 4,10 point, even though my expected return is 0, the probability of a win is less than 0.33. Perhaps my bankroll is not adequate to support the variance of the game.

This is not a math question, but a request for suggestions for mental triggers that other folks use to leave the table before their bankroll has expired. Thanks!

If three points in a row are established, but not one of them comes in, color up and walk. Do not convince yourself that, "my turn to shoot is coming up, so I will wait it out", or "the next guy did well last time, I'll wait for him". Just color up and walk. When you start your next session (wait a few hours, have a meal, go for a walk, or get some sleep and play the next day), wait for a shooter to make two winners (7/11 coming out and/or made points) before placing a bet. This does not ensure a streak is starting, but serves to slow your play. Again, three losers in row.... walk.

I finally got away to Harrington the other day and had a fun time playing craps but did not walk away a winner. One of the things I noticed and maybe I'm crazy but if there is one superstition I am beginning to believe in (no comments from Nareed, s2dbaker, EvenBob, or the Wizard) it is that when the dice hit money you lose money. It seemed like every time a throw hit some chips the seven came up. I noticed it and on purpose tried to pay attention so I could refute this crazy thought but it just kept happening. Does anyone else have this experience?

Quote: FrGamble

I finally got away to Harrington

Glad to hear you made it to the big H. A needed escape no doubt.

As far as your bad luck with "hit money, lose money" I'll have to try to see if I can confirm that.

Quote: odiousgambit

As far as your bad luck with "hit money, lose money" I'll have to try to see if I can confirm that.

I'm sure its true. The more bizzare the urban legend,
the more true it is. Christianity is a good example..

After getting destroyed again at Harrington playing conservative with only PassLine bets with full 3/4/5x odds and a few 6,8 place bets sprinkled in I am beginning to lose my faith in craps. I am really trying to hold onto the idea that people can control the dice and there is such a thing as a good shooter but my experience more and more is telling me this isn't true. I am beginning to know what it must be like to be an atheist and trying to hold onto a belief that everything in me and around me is saying doesn't make sense.

Unless someone helps me overcome my unbelief I may convert solely to blackjack, please help!

To think that people can control the dice is foolish, however craps has better odds then blackjack when using 3-4-5x odds. Stick to only come bets with 3-4-5x odds, and you will come out a winner every now and then. However, understand that you are playing a negative expectation game. If you expect to make money, quit gambling and throw it into mutual fund.

I don't play a whole lot of craps, but i have experienced both ends of the table. I lost over $1200 in a night, and I have made $600 in a half hour. It's all based on luck, and the important part was that I enjoyed it (although losing the $1200 was a weak moment where I was chasing my losses...another bad idea. Set your limit, and leave when it is reached.)

I suggest you take some time off. The taste of losing is fresh in your mouth. Even if you are betting 3-4-5 with a $5 minimum table, you're still risking somewhere around $50-$100 on average per roll. With an average payoff of $35 per bet resolved, even a good roll could have you wanting more. Remember, in the long run, you are going to lose. I'd say cut any losses you have.

If you have the bankroll to ride the variance, then by all means craps is an amazing game to play for hours on end with many ups and downs. For the rest of us who don't know what it means to bring four figures into a casino (I know some of you are out there), play a few rolls hardcore and see if you can win a mini-jackpot... and know when to frickin' walk away.

Or just play the darkside minimum... a hundred bucks can last hours if you just keep $5 on the wrong side.

Since craps is a negative expectation game you should leave a loser -- period. There are only two ways to beat the game of craps:

1. cheat
2. influence the dice

If you can't cheat, and if you can't influence the dice, then be prepared to lose. If you won, you got lucky.

Craps is a frustrating game. You wil lose more sessions than you win playing the right side. It is tempting to chase your losses. Don't do it.

I'm taking a break for a while. I chased too much last trip, and was playing $5 and 3x4x5x odds on every roll. Got all the box numbers loaded up and the shooter sevened out. Six points, no winners, $150 wipe-out. That's never happened to me before.

I was going to start a new thread about my craps "philosophy" but figured I might as well just add my thoughts here.

I completely agree with Alan when he says "Since craps is a negative expectation game you should leave a loser -- period." This is the bleak truth, and all you can do is hope for your overall wins and losses to balance out eventually, and have fun and enjoy some free drinks/other comps while you're at it.

I'm a staunch dark side player, and while playing this way technically gets you a lower overall house edge, I don't necessarily play dark side just because of the math. There's also a psychological aspect to when you win/when you lose. When you're betting the right way, either with pass/odds/come/odds or placing/buying the other numbers, you win money in small chunks and when that seven inevitably comes up - BAM - all the money you had on the table is now gone.

When you play the dark side, it's the exact opposite. I have one bet on the Don't Pass and always back it up laying maximum odds (at a 3-4-5x table this is conveniently always 6x time your bet, just like the payoff is for right side pass odds). Then, depending on my bankroll for the session and how much I want to risk, I'll add 1, 2 or sometimes 3 Don't Come bets, also backed up laying maximum odds. When you have this setup, you lose money in small chunks. The 6 hits, that bet is gone, the 9 hits, that bet is gone, etc. But when that seven comes up - and remember seven is always the most likely number to roll - BAM - you just won all of your bets! I know the house still has the edge, but for me the psychology of it makes it more fun. I'm almost always rooting for that seven to show up. And since it's the most likely number, I feel more logical. Call it cognitive dissonance if you want.

Anyway, just my two cents. Obviously you have to be able to handle getting the stinkeye from the rest of the table if you're winning. But more often than not both sides of the table are losing and winning back and forth, so many times I've actually made friends while I was playing don't and they were playing pass - just a friendly rivalry sort of, when we both know we're playing a negative expectation game. I never celebrate my wins emphatically unless I'm the only one at the table or everyone is betting don't - just seems like good manners given the history and customs of the game.

I've only had one person get seriously upset at me while I was shooting don't pass. I was betting $5 DP/DC bets backed up with $30 lay odds, and he was probably averaging 10x or 20x more money on the layout than me betting right side (talking black chips on the pass line, placing the 6 and 8 for SIX HUNDRED EACH). It was a cold table and he was losing money hand over fist while I was winning modestly. He finally lost everything he had (I estimated he had $5-6K in his rack when I walked up) and I had the feeling he was already down when I walked up. This is the only time I felt really bad. I made a couple hundred bucks, maybe, and this guy was just absolutely wrecked. I have no idea if he had the means to support such gambling losses, but he was a young guy (mid-late-twenties) so probably not. In retrospect I wish I had just walked away from that table. At one point he even put a black chip on the pass line in front of me while I was shooting, hoping to change my mind about what I was "trying" to roll (lollers). I seven'd out and won my bets and lost his $100 for me.

I absolutely refuse to switch to the right side no matter what - it's just a personal rule I have set for myself. I don't believe in luck/streaks/hot shooters/etc., and I refuse to be bullied into it. If I have a bad feeling that a table is heating up and is going to stay hot, I just walk away instead of switching sides.

Anyway, that's my story and I'm sticking to it. Feel free to call me an asshole, all of you normal right-side bettors :). Oh and I sometimes wear a Darth Vader shirt when I play craps.

AcesAndEights, one of the best posts I've seen about craps (or any table game) in a long time. You've got the right idea and the right attitude. You may have even swayed me to this line of thinking.

Aces&8s, that was a great post. There is nothing more sucky than losing all those bets you've got set up with numbers galore and full odds thinking you can't lose and then boom comes the seven! Maybe the darkside is the way to go. I'm going to have to pray on that one.

As long as you guys remember, with the dark side, you have an 8 to 3 disadvantage on the come out roll.

$20 Don't Pass. You have 8 ways to lose (6 ways to make 7, 2 ways to make 11) and you have only 3 ways to win (1 way to make 2, 2 ways to make 3, and the 12 is a push). Once you get past that. The odds tip in your favor.

Just understand that playing the dark side is the opposite of the light side. Odds against you first, than with you.

Quote: AcesAndEights

I've only had one person get seriously upset at me while I was shooting don't pass.

Great story!

I enjoy playing the don't side, for the same reasons you listed. One 7 and you win multiple rather than losing multiple bets. (My new system, however, is not always on the don't, but it does allow me to consistently leave the table with more money that I started, so I go with it.)

Along with your story, I can say that I've never had anybody be openly antagonistic to me while playing the don't. I have shooters on the other side of the table "aim" for my chips, and I've heard the occasional comment muttered under someone's breath.

On my most recent trip, I was playing the don't side, and had such an instance. First, I was standing right next to the dealer. OK. Maybe there was a gap of about 5 inches or so. Anyway, this guy comes and decides he's going to take that end spot (not sure if there's a name for it.) I felt like, I was already basically standing there, and would have been polite for him to ask which side of me he should stand on. But that didn't happen. I refused to move over for him as well, again, because I feel like he just co-opted the spot without even a polite ask. And it's not as though the table was crowded, there was plenty of places for him to fit in.

Anyway, he buys in his chips, and then notices that I'm playing the don't. He immediately mutters about the "negativity" on the table, and refused to bet. I'm annoyed with the guy by now. Not only does he force his way into a spot where he doesn't fit, but he doesn't even start betting right away. He did start betting at some point, but as the table was very cold, I kept winning my don't bets, and he kept losing his do bets. Everytime someone sevened-out, he would mutter about the "negativity" on the table.

After a seven-out, he would usually sit out a shooter or two, just taking up space, and then start betting again, only to lose again. When he was rolling, he would increase the amount of his do betting, as well as throw tons of chips into the center of the table asking for all kinds of crazy world, hard-way, and hop bet combinations.

He added more money from his wallet 4 or 5 times before he finally lost it all, and then, throwing his hands up in the air, yelled about how there's no way he could possibly win at a table with such "negativity". I pushed my chips towards the dealer and asked to color up, looked at the guy, and said, "You're right. The negativity here is horrible. I'm going to have to take my winnings elsewhere." He didn't respond, but man what a dirty look I got. He stormed away. After they colored up my chips, I threw a tip the boys and said, "Sorry about the negativity," and they all laughed.

konceptum,
If you don't mind telling, what is your "don't" betting strategy. I've been following John Patrick's "richochet" method that includes laying the point, adding a don't come bet and a $1 yo (bets act as a hedge against the 7 and 11). Once the don't bet moves to a point, remove the lay and add a second don't come bet and a $1 yo. It seems to work well on a cold table when using the "following the trend" method from do to don't betting.
Thanks,
Tom C

Quote: EvenBob

I'm sure its true. The more bizzare the urban legend,
the more true it is. Christianity is a good example..

Then, are you a Christian?

Quote: AcesAndEights

I absolutely refuse to switch to the right side no matter what - it's just a personal rule I have set for myself. I don't believe in luck/streaks/hot shooters/etc., and I refuse to be bullied into it. If I have a bad feeling that a table is heating up and is going to stay hot, I just walk away instead of switching sides.

Have you considered playing only the Don't Come? In that case, you're not betting against the shooter, since his Point is already on and a Yo won't hurt him - only you. If he rolls his Point, that's your DC Up-Number. His line's now in come-out, and you'll both win on a Dugan! If you roll some other Up-Number from the Box, you win on a seven, whether he passes first or not. The only catch to playing Sith-style is that you can't press your Don't Come the way you'd press Come or Pass or even Don't Pass. But just make Lays coming out, which I assume you do?

NowTheSerpent,
I think your answer was directed at my last post.
To answer your question, I don't like going up on the d/c "naked". I like to hedge when establishing the d/c bet. My play starts only after a shooter establishes a point.
When you lay against the point, and add a $1 Yo, this takes the 7 &11 out of the equation which is far to frequent the P7O.
There are more times that I've witnessed a shooter P7O, than take my lay bet down with a repeat hit.
However, I'm always open to new ideas
Thanks
Tom C

Quote: NowTheSerpent

you'll both win on a Dugan!

A natural, I presume? Never heard that one.

Quote: NowTheSerpent

4 The only catch to playing Sith-style is that you can't press your Don't Come the way you'd press Come or Pass or even Don't Pass.

Why not? I've never encountered any problem doing just that.

And if you're not into pressing, you can always lay odds.

It really doesn't matter what way you play craps, as long as you avoid the bad bets (props, field, placing (with the exception to the 6/8, however it's not a great bet). Like all casino games, the key to winning is getting lucky. "The key to success requires skill, luck, or both".

If you're not skilled enough to control the dice (you're not...), then you better hope for some luck. If you can't afford to lose the money you are gambling, quit gambling. If you hope to make back those losses, get a constant source of income(a job).

The thing that pisses me off the most about craps is the amount of superstitious people that play it. There was a group of about 4 guys who were bitching about every single guy that rolled the dice, insisting that he has been "shooting bad" all night, and that they need to learn to pass the dice. I had a pretty good laugh when the dice came around to these gentlemen, and all four of them manage to succeed at failing to set any points. Of course, it was the dice fault at this point, or the table was bad. The men quit betting, and the dice came back around to me.

I managed to roll 5 points, making myself about $600. I colored up after this, and one of the guys begged me to stay, assuming that I was the only one at the table that could get lucky. I simply told him it was all luck, through a tip to the dealers and walked off.

Well, getting back to what's in the subject line here, "Is it possible to leave the craps table a winner?" I certainly can't be the guy to provide any evidence in the affirmative recently. Just took a real beating! I was playing out my new tactic of assuring that I will play only short sessions with a minimal number of sessions too, and evidently the dice gods were greatly offended. The hubris! They took it upon themselves to teach me a real lesson. [g]

Quote: Calder

A natural, I presume? Never heard that one.

Yes. "Skinny Dugan" is the you-know-what. El Siete.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Quote: NowTheSerpent

4 The only catch to playing Sith-style is that you can't press your Don't Come the way you'd press Come or Pass or even Don't Pass.

Why not? I've never encountered any problem doing just that.

And if you're not into pressing, you can always lay odds.

You can't press a DC that's on an Up-Number because a 7 will start come-out, wherein placing new DC's is impossible.

Quote: tconley19

NowTheSerpent,
I think your answer was directed at my last post.
To answer your question, I don't like going up on the d/c "naked". I like to hedge when establishing the d/c bet. My play starts only after a shooter establishes a point.
When you lay against the point, and add a $1 Yo, this takes the 7 &11 out of the equation which is far to frequent the P7O.
There are more times that I've witnessed a shooter P7O, than take my lay bet down with a repeat hit.
However, I'm always open to new ideas
Thanks
Tom C

Of course - Lay against the Point and $1 Yo. OK. Can you Place-To-Lose against Six and Eight at 4-to-5 where you play? Might be better for those Points than laying.

Quote: NowTheSerpent

You can't press a DC that's on an Up-Number because a 7 will start come-out, wherein placing new DC's is impossible.

First of all, most craps players use the word "pressing" to mean that after winning a decision they increase their bet. It seems that you mean adding to the bet. Of course, you can't until a decision is arrived at. But you can always increase the odds bet (up to the usually sizable limits).
Second, what does "placing new DC's" mean?

I think he means Place to lose. Not many casinos offer this option.

NowThe Serpent,
No place bet to lose on the traveling casinos I play.
Tom

Quote: tconley19

konceptum,
If you don't mind telling, what is your "don't" betting strategy. I've been following John Patrick's "richochet" method that includes laying the point, adding a don't come bet and a $1 yo (bets act as a hedge against the 7 and 11). Once the don't bet moves to a point, remove the lay and add a second don't come bet and a $1 yo. It seems to work well on a cold table when using the "following the trend" method from do to don't betting.
Thanks,
Tom C

When I would play the don't, I just used a simple don't pass with full odds followed by 2 or 3 don't comes with full odds.

If you're asking about my winning methodology that guarantees a win every time I play, I will not divulge that information. I have no desire to let a lot of people know what I'm doing and thus tip off the casinos.

Quote: konceptum

When I would play the don't, I just used a simple don't pass with full odds followed by 2 or 3 don't comes with full odds.

If you're asking about my winning methodology that guarantees a win every time I play, I will not divulge that information. I have no desire to let a lot of people know what I'm doing and thus tip off the casinos.

Sorry dude, there is no such thing as a "guaranteed" win. And just brushing off inquiries makes you look all the more like every fraud before that says they have a "guaranteed" winning strategy. Details or or it doesn't exist.

It's just rude to bring something up and than dismiss it. Yawn.

Quote: konceptum

If you're asking about my winning methodology that guarantees a win every time I play, I will not divulge that information. I have no desire to let a lot of people know what I'm doing and thus tip off the casinos.

No offense, but, you realize that your system is worthless and the casinos couldn't give a rat's butt what you are doing, right?

Geez people, you sound jealous.

My "system" is not a system. I don't play often enough to call it a system. And I would never announce what I'm doing when I think I have a good way of playing that has guaranteed I win money every time. Note, I said "think". I know that the math should be against me, but so far it is not. Thus, I fully expect for the negative to catch up to me. However, in the meantime, I know that my last 58 trips to the craps table has resulted in 58 wins, each time doubling the buy-in I started with at the table. While my 59th trip may very well result in a loss, I will continue to play the way I play as long as it continues to result in a win. And once my "system" fails me, I'd be happy to divulge the details. But not a second before.

Right on Teddys, he will find out soon enough that no betting scheme is foolproof, the math will rule in lifetime play.

I say just play the way you enjoy with a good chance of a winning session. Lately have been having good net results(wins minus losses) with this simple inside betting scheme:
Pass-odds only to start the new shooter, wait for an inside number to be rolled after the point is established, then inside place bets. Collect 3 hits, then start a full press of the inside number hit and its sister, until all bets get to double the starting amount. Playing with a 15 shooter bankroll based on the starting pass-odds and starting inside place amounts. Simple, fun, and a good chance of a winning session. This will lose on an extended cold table, but it wins on a half way decent table with a few good hands.

Quote: konceptum

Geez people, you sound jealous.

Nope. Nothing to be jealous of. How can I be jealous of something that only exists in someone else's mind?

Quote:

And I would never announce what I'm doing when I think I have a good way of playing that has guaranteed I win money every time.

Again, there is no way to have a "guaranteed" win. Hedges don't work. Iron cross doesn't work. The game is set up to be negative expectation. Sorry bud.

Quote:

Note, I said "think"

Sorry, "think" and "guaranteed" are mutually exclusive. Pick one.

Quote:

I know that the math should be against me, but so far it is not. Thus, I fully expect for the negative to catch up to me.

Than you are just talking about a short term winning streak. Thus, your use of the word "guaranteed" is even more dubious.

Quote:

However, in the meantime, I know that my last 58 trips to the craps table has resulted in 58 wins

Congratulations, no really, I like hearing win stories and all, but that still doesn't mean anything is guaranteed.

Quote:

And once my "system" fails me, I'd be happy to divulge the details. But not a second before.

Whatever, have fun with that. I could just put $10 on the pass line and get 58 wins in a row and call it a system. If you don't want to talk about it, stop bringing it up. No one wants to hear about anything that has no details. It makes you look worse than 98steps. Move along.

Quote: dwm

Pass-odds only to start the new shooter, wait for an inside number to be rolled after the point is established, then inside place bets.

Is there a reason for waiting for an inside number to be rolled on a "halfway decent" table?

Quote: SanchoPanza

Is there a reason for waiting for an inside number to be rolled on a "halfway decent" table?

I think it is to just safeguard against a PSO (Point-Seven Out).

Mathematically, there is no point to wait. But it does help safeguard your bankroll.