MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 6526
November 1st, 2011 at 8:21:21 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Math: Given that the experiment went MORE extreme (7 on 41 rolls of 74) when Eliot placed the numbers, there must be software in place to detect this and act accordingly.


Granted, but if they haven't been updating their software in several years, the question is really whether the algorithm they have in there is beatable. That still hasn't been tested by, say, playing doey-don't. Imagine you were playing $5 pass, $5 don't on every roll, you established 4, 5, 8 and 9, and then took odds on 4 and 5 and laid on 8 and 9. Do you really think that the game would roll 8, 9, 7 in order?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 1881
November 1st, 2011 at 1:10:53 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Granted, but if they haven't been updating their software in several years, the question is really whether the algorithm they have in there is beatable. That still hasn't been tested by, say, playing doey-don't. Imagine you were playing $5 pass, $5 don't on every roll, you established 4, 5, 8 and 9, and then took odds on 4 and 5 and laid on 8 and 9. Do you really think that the game would roll 8, 9, 7 in order?



They would roll only 12s and the odds and lay bets would never resolve. I know that's extreme and I'm somewhat joking. I suspect that there might be some ways to beat the casino. Still, I admire the Wizard and the OP for wanting to warn the world rather than exploit the cheating casino.
I heart Crystal Math.
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
November 1st, 2011 at 1:18:18 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Granted, but if they haven't been updating their software in several years, the question is really whether the algorithm they have in there is beatable. That still hasn't been tested by, say, playing doey-don't. Imagine you were playing $5 pass, $5 don't on every roll, you established 4, 5, 8 and 9, and then took odds on 4 and 5 and laid on 8 and 9. Do you really think that the game would roll 8, 9, 7 in order?



If I was coding a rogue system, I'd do a quick calculation of what numbers win which amount for the house, and then tweak the dice probabilities to roll so the roll is in my favour. So there would be no trigger based of the initial pass line bet, but each individual roll. Making it unexploitable.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1367
  • Posts: 22724
November 1st, 2011 at 3:18:30 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

If I was coding a rogue system, I'd do a quick calculation of what numbers win which amount for the house, and then tweak the dice probabilities to roll so the roll is in my favour. So there would be no trigger based of the initial pass line bet, but each individual roll. Making it unexploitable.



Me too. I think I would have it determine the winning outcome of every possible roll, including expected value of any bets still on the table. Then, in "cheat mode" it would not accept any outcome with an outcome greater than expected value. If it was, then choose another outcome for the dice, until a "bad" outcome (for the player) is found. Of course, I wouldn't have it in "cheat mode" all the time, just with a certain low probability. Even if I was inclined to cheat, my policy would be to fleece the sheep, not slaughter it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Garnabby
Garnabby
Joined: Aug 14, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 197
November 1st, 2011 at 9:02:22 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Granted, but if they haven't been updating their software in several years, the question is really whether the algorithm they have in there is beatable.


"Where there's smoke, there's fire." So it's usually best to just clear out. And it doesn't take all this long to see the "writing on the wall" if you're at all trying to read it.

What's the best you can hope for by trying to hang around? - More "fire". They're certainly going to only deny, deny, deny; and plead no-contest (and no knowledge of the fact) if, and when, otherwise.

Quote: CrystalMath

Still, I admire the Wizard and the OP for wanting to warn the world rather than exploit the cheating casino.


Don't most on-line casinos have strict and legal player- terms and conditions, including no such subterfuge(s)? Even in a casino, i would be wary of inadvertently falling complicit in others' possible crimes.

Quote: Wizard

Even if I was inclined to cheat, my policy would be to fleece the sheep, not slaughter it.


And of were most reasonable persons (and casinos) not to cheat.
Why bet at all, if you can be sure? Anyway, what constitutes a "good bet"? - The best slots-game in town; a sucker's edge; or some gray-area blackjack-stunts? (P.S. God doesn't even have to exist to be God.)
4ofaKind
4ofaKind
Joined: Sep 28, 2010
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 221
November 2nd, 2011 at 4:02:19 AM permalink
Is it possible the crap game being offered via this software provider is being powered similar to the Class 11 machines presently being used at New York Rancinos and other Indian Casinos; that provide outcomes (including video poker) based on pre-set house hold settings? We know Vegas and Atlantic City use Class 111 video poker machines based on 100% random draw.

Can a video crap game even be served up in a Class 11 version? Or is this a case of out right crooked software manipulation?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 109
  • Posts: 7706
November 2nd, 2011 at 4:42:06 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Me too. I think I would have it determine the winning outcome of every possible roll, including expected value of any bets still on the table. Then, in "cheat mode" it would not accept any outcome with an outcome greater than expected value. If it was, then choose another outcome for the dice, until a "bad" outcome (for the player) is found. Of course, I wouldn't have it in "cheat mode" all the time, just with a certain low probability. Even if I was inclined to cheat, my policy would be to fleece the sheep, not slaughter it.



100% agree. Just keep slowly bleeding the fools who play, rather than destroy them quickly. Just have every 100th roll be non random and that is enough to more than double the house edge, and it is very unlikely anyone would notice. Cheating on half the rolls becomes obvious quickly.
Jufo81
Jufo81
Joined: May 23, 2010
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 344
November 2nd, 2011 at 4:48:03 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Of course, I wouldn't have it in "cheat mode" all the time, just with a certain low probability. Even if I was inclined to cheat, my policy would be to fleece the sheep, not slaughter it.



When you have served as a consultant to online software providers, I truly hope this is not something you have suggested for them to implement. Because this is exactly what always happens to me with some major online casino softwares, that is, always running about 2% - 5% below expected return percentage but at the same time being unable to prove it because of the vast amount play data required for 2% to become significant.
boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 5994
November 2nd, 2011 at 5:10:59 AM permalink
The other table game that BLR runs is American Roulette. Does anyone want to try blowing their money there and look for a biased game? Maybe bet on all the numbers except 0/00? Or bet 2 of the 3 streets and see how often 3rd street appears?
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Jufo81
Jufo81
Joined: May 23, 2010
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 344
November 2nd, 2011 at 5:13:10 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

The other table game that BLR runs is American Roulette. Does anyone want to try blowing their money there and look for a biased game? Maybe bet on all the numbers except 0/00? Or bet 2 of the 3 streets and see how often 3rd street appears?



They question is would they really bother to cheat on a game which already has >5% house edge and prints money for the casino as it is?

  • Jump to: